AL West Preview

With Spring Training just around the corner, Gabe and I will be spending the next few days previewing each division for the upcoming 2010 MLB season. Today, we're starting with the AL West.

Dave's Projected Finish

1. Seattle Mariners: The Mariners open up 2010 with perhaps the best 1-2-3 starting pitchers in the majors. Starting things off will be last year's Cy Young runner-up Felix Hernandez, followed by offseason acquisition and former Cy Young himself Cliff Lee as well as another former prized offseason acquisition Erik Bedard(although Bedard might not immediately be the 3rd starter as he recovers from a myriad of injuries. The hilariously named Doug Fister will be filling in for Bedard until then). Behind that solid trio is former Pirates workhorse Ian Snell(who went 5-2 with Seattle after coming over in a midseason trade) and saucy Aussie Ryan Rowland-Smith(who went 5-4 with a respectable 3.74 ERA last season. The big question mark for the M's will be the lineup. At the top of the order, they're pretty solid with batting crown lynchpin Ichiro Suzuki and former Angels speedster Chone Figgins, but who's driving them in? 2nd baseman Jose Lopez hit .303 with 25 homers and 96 RBIs last year but he hardly keeps pitchers up at night. The team brought Milton Bradley over from Chicago, but when Bradley isn't being a Grade A loon, he's been wildly inconsistent with his bat. The only real heavy hand in the lineup is Mariners relic Ken Griffey Jr. It goes without saying that Junior isn't the most durable man alive. In fact, I'm more of a mortal lock to lose 100 pounds than Griff is of playing 100 games. If Griffey or anybody else can put runs on the board, the M's have a reliable bullpen. Closer Dave Aardsma saved 38 games last season and they have a reliable set up man in former Nats closer Chad Cordero. With the way things shaping up in the West, 90 wins will take this division and if the Mariners can show some pop to complement their stellar pitching in a stellar pitcher's park, then the division is theirs to lose.

2. L.A. Angels: On paper, the Angels look like the team to beat. They've averaged 90 wins a season over the 10 years that manager Mike Scioscia has resided over the team. The lineup has a good mix of young and old(headlined by last year's breakout star 1B Kendry Morales as well as the presence of elder statesmen Bobby Abreu and Hideki Matsui). They have the best bullpen in the AL with closer Brian Fuentes(48 saves) and setup men Scot Shields and Fernando Rodney. The big concern I have is the rotation. Longtime workhorse John Lackey left for greener pastures in Boston and the team's ace is now young and inconsistent Ervin Santana(8-8, 5.04 ERA last season, after a 16-4 season the year before). Behind Santana is solid #2 Jered Weaver, lefthanders Joe Saunders and Scott Kazmir and adequate veteran Joel Piniero. Of the guys behind Santana, Kazmir has the biggest potential to be lights out. After all, Kazmir was a big part of Tampa Bay's breakthrough performance two years ago that led to the AL pennant. Another worry I have is the pressure on the young guys to perform. Morales put up big numbers last season(.306, 34 HR, 104 RBI) as Mark Teixiera's replacement but it's asking a lot to expect lightning to strike twice with new 3B Brandon Wood(replacing Chone Figgins) and talented prospect Erick Aybar. The Angels seem to always be looking the competition in the rear view mirror come September but with teams like Seattle making moves and L.A. losing some talent, this might be the year they spend the postseason at home.

3. Texas: New season, same story for the Rangers. You know this team is going to rake. 1-9, they are as good as any lineup in the bigs. The question, as always, is the pitching. Texas' "ace" this season is former Cub/A's starter Rich Harden, who is as durable as Betty White's hip. Behind him are a group of guys you couldn't pick out of a suspect lineup. Scott Feldman? Derek Holland? Tommy Hunter? Sounds like names off the cast list on Imdb for Saved By The Bell: The New Class. That being said, the lineup is good enough to make up for most of the rotation's shortcomings. On top of young stars like 3B Michael Young, SS Elvis Andrus, C Jarrod Saltamacchia, SS Ian Kinsler and CF Josh Hamilton, the Rangers might have pulled off the biggest sleeper signing of '10 in bringing in former MVP Vlad Guerrero. With Gurrerro only being asked to swing a bat, there's a potential for a big year out of the aging Vlad hitting in that little league ballpark in Arlington(Look what it did for Sammy Sosa and Andruw Jones). With a lineup this deep, the Rangers could be a dark horse in the division as a few Tommy Johns here and some shoulder inflammations there could put them right in the swing of things. However, if the lineup can't outslug a division that's pitching heavy at the top, it will be another year of thumb-twiddling in Texas.

4. Oakland: These aren't your older brother's A's. Gone are the days of Oakland's dominant young pitching, with names like Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito, Dan Haren and Rich Harden. Instead, the mound will commanded by young but unproven arms like "ace" Brett Anderson as well as two guys who didn't throw a pitch in 2009, former All-Stars Ben Sheers and Justin Duchscherer. The lineup is a mix of smallball speedsters and boom or bust sluggers. At the top of the order will be the fleet-footed Coco Crisp and Rajai Davis and they will hope to be drove in by free-swinging sluggers Jack Cust and Kevin Kouzmanoff. Both Kouz and Cust have lifetime batting averages of under .260 and only Kouzmanoff has managed to hit above .270 and that was three years ago with San Diego. Still, if they can get wood on the ball, they can drive in some runs, but this team looks like its fresh out of Billy Beane magic. Oakland's only hope of staying afloat in the West would be if they can somehow revive Sheets and Duchscherer back to their dominant forms and even then you wonder whether they will be used more as trade bait than as prominent pennant pieces.

Gabe's Projected Finish

Before I get into each team let me say a few words about the division as a whole. I think it's obvious that only the division winner is going to make the playoffs. I think 90 wins is going to be enough to finish first in the AL West. I also think that with the monsters in the AL Central and the AL East, 90 wins is going to be fewer than what the wildcard team in the AL will get. I think the West clearly has only two teams that will fight for the division title in what could end up being one of the tightest division races.

1. L.A. Angels - Like Dave said, on paper this team looks like the best in the West, but, MLB games are not played on paper, they are played by tiny men on my TV screen. Seriously though, the Angels have the most well-rounded team in the division. Dave said that have a good mix of young and old. Basically they have a young infield which includes Kendry Morales, the only 30+ home run, 100+ RBI guy on the team. Juan Rivera, Torii Hunter, and Bobby Abreu are the projected starters in the outfield and each of them can slug the ball. Hideki Matsui is also sluggers but will see the most time at DH. The rotation suffered a huge loss when John Lackey left, but the combo of Weaver, Saunders, Kazmir, and Santana should be enough to win the West. The strength of this pitching staff is in the bullpen. Closer Brian Fuentes had 48 saves last year, but did so while compiling a 1-5 record and giving up 53 hits in 55 innings. Fernando Rodney came over from Detroit and could fill-in at closer if need be. Finally, the Angels have Mike Scioscia at the helm. He is the longest tenured manager in the majors and has a World Series title under his belt. In his ten years as manager he has accrued exactly 900 wins (according to The Sporting News), averaging out to exactly 90 wins a season. That sounds good to me. Put me down for the Angels getting 90 wins and winning the AL West this season.

2. Seattle Mariners - When looking at the Mariners' roster, one thing struck me. They are absolutely loaded at the top of their rotation and the top of their batting order. Starting pitchers Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee are nasty 1-2 punch. After that their rotation has a lot of nice players, but not guys you would want to depend on. Eric Bedard and Ian Snell are decent. Ryan Rowland-Smith is young but doesn't strike out enough batters. Ichiro Suzuki and Chone Figgins will be batting in the 1 and 2 spots. That is a lot of speed, contact, and patience at the plate. In other words they are going to get on base a lot and wait to be driven home. And there's the problem. Ken Griffey Jr. and Milton Bradley are getting up there in age, to put it mildly. I think their only hope is if Jose Lopez has a breakout year. Their bullpen is also a little suspect. They have some nice pieces, but I don't trust David Aardsma to be a consistent closer. I wouldn't be surprised if the Mariners won the West, but I think they'll come up just short. I'll say 88 wins.

3. Texas Rangers - The question about the Rangers this year is the same that is has been for years....how many 9-8 games can they win? As they have for the last oh, two decades or so, the Rangers are loaded with bats, but have no pitching. Last year they started really strong, keeping the division lead until the All-Star break, but then they faded. Top to bottom their lineup is full of players who can mash the ball. Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, David Murphy, Nelson Cruz, Jarrod Saltalamacchia are all dangerous hitters. The centerpiece is Josh Hamilton, but he is battling injuries right now. Their rotation, well, stinks. Their "ace" is Rich Harden who would barely be the third starter on most teams and who, honestly, I wouldn't recognize if he walked into my living room wearing a Rich Harden jersey. Neftali Felix is the only pitcher who has shown potential. In limited work last year he had 39 K's in 31 innings. He'll start the year in the bullpen but could be a starter by the end of the year. The Rangers will score runs but ultimately will be letdown often by their pitching. I think they'll get to 79 wins.

4. Oakland Athletics - Money ball is in full effect again. The A's are in the midst of a multi-year rebuilding project. Last year they started developing some young arms. This year they are going to focus on their position players and bullpen. The roster is full of young cheap talent (as is the A's way) and some key veterans in Eric Chavez and Coco Crisp. GM Billy Beane thinks Crisp is going to return to form after having his 2009 season in Kansas City cut short with a season-ending shoulder injury. For the last two seasons the A's have reached 75 wins. I think they'll improve a little this year and get to 77 wins.