NL West Preview

MLB division breakdowns continue.....Today, we cover the wide-open NL West.

Dave's Projected Finish

1. L.A. Dodgers: The Dodgers are like the San Diego Chargers of baseball. They have so much young talent on the roster that they tease you into thinking they are a title contender. Then, they start out slow and inevitably battle back to make the playoffs but somehow find a way to choke in the postseason. Two big keys for the Dodgers if they plan on making this the year they put it all together and win a ring.

First, the psyche of Manny Ramirez. Man-Ram made headlines this past week by declaring this year to be his last in Dodger Blue before backpedaling and saying he'd love to stay in L.A. With Ramirez a free agent at the end of the year, you never quite know where his head is at. Will he use his impending freedom to go out and mash the ball in pursuit of a new deal? Or will he revert back to his last year in Boston, where he let his cloudy future distract him and turn him into a full-blown headcase? There's also the concern that another steroid-infused suspension could be right around the corner, which would end his season.

Another issue is the declining production of young catcher Russell Martin. Martin has struggled to top his 2007 numbers(.293, 19 HRs, 87 RBIs and 19 SBs). Last season was particularly abysmal as he hit a pedestrian .250 with 7 homers and 53 RBIs as well as 11 stolen bases. While a lineup this loaded doesn't exactly need Martin to be the second coming of Johnny Bench, it has to be a bit discouraging when someone who looked like a rising star takes a downward spiral.

Perhaps a bigger underlying red flag is the Dodgers' starting pitching. Both young starters Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley played solid in the first half but tapered off after the break to finish a combined 20-19. With not much behind them in the rotation, the pressure is on these two to establish some consistency and go late in games and allow a solid bullpen led by setup man George Sherrill and outstanding closer Jonathan Broxton(2.61 ERA, 114 Ks, 36 saves) to shut the door. It's manager Joe Torre's job to muster up some of that old Yankee magic and lead this team to a title run while a. Manny's still interested and b. the young core is together. If they can't, there's a couple of young teams behind them nipping at their heels.

2. Arizona: Much like Seattle, the Diamondbacks offer up an intimidating top three in their starting rotation. Also, much like Seattle, the dominance of that top three will depend on the recovery of a once-great hurler. If former Cy Young winner Brandon Webb can return after only making half a start last season, the combination of Webb, Dan Haren and newly acquired Edwin Jackson can put teams away and finally keep the Dodgers in their rearview mirror. The lineup needs to come together as well. Despite his breakout season(44 homers and 102 RBI), third baseman Mark Reynolds still managed to hit just .260 and strike out 223 times. That's a bit troubling considering the lineup only had one guy hit at least .300(Outfielder Justin Upton, who hit exactly .300). The team brought in a pair of ex-Braves to man the right side of the infield in 1B Adam LaRoche and 2B Kelly Johnson, but neither of those guys are disciplined hitters either. The same could be said for center fielder Chris Young, who had nice power and speed numbers in '07(38 HRs, 68 RBI and 27 SBs) but has still never hit better than .248. The lack of ability to get on base puts pressure on the starters to keep the score low. The shakiness of the bullpen also means that guys like Haren, Webb, and Jackson will have to go deep into games. That might be asking a lot for a guy who wears out late in the season like Haren and puts even more pressure on a guy on the mend like Webb. However, if Chad Qualls and company can't hold leads, the team is going to have to find someone elsewhere that can if they want to keep the Dodgers from overtaking the division once again in August and September.

3. Colorado: The Rockies comeback last season from a mediocre defending NL champion that just axed its manager to a feisty Wild Card team was a nice story, but it doesn't happen all the time. Playing in Coors Field, you know the Rockies are going to rake. Last season, they got some good pitching to complement the bats, riding an solid year from Ubaldo Jimenez and giving the closer job back to former A's fireman Huston Street and watching him close the show down the stretch. Still, this team cannot continue to rely on getting the drop on the rest of the league in the last two months. Behind Jimenez, there isn't much. Aaron Cook and Jorge De La Rosa both had ERAs above 4 and Jeff Francis didn't play at all last season. The lineup still has reliable first baseman Todd Helton(and he's backed by the occasionally dangerous former AL MVP Jason Giambi) and they have some good young talent in SS Troy Tulowitzki(.297, 32 HRs 92 RBI and 20 SB) and speedy centerfielder Dexter Fowler(27 SBs). Street comes back to shut the door but you wonder how many opportunities he's going to get if the guys behind him can't keep the ball in the park. With the Dodgers still steady and Arizona and San Fran on the rise, the Rockies can't afford another first half collapse with the hope of a second half revival.

4. San Francisco: Barry Bonds isn't walking through that door. The new Giants lineup in the second year of the post-Bonds Era is variable "Who's That?" of hitters. Nate Schierholtz? Stevie Wonder wouldn't even pick him by accident in a fantasy draft. The middle of the lineup if commandeered by Pablo "Kung Fu Panda" Sandoval who knocked the cover off the ball last season(.330, 25 HRs, 90 RBI) but who does he have around him? Second baseman is long removed from his 2006 batting crown with the Pirates. Mark DeRosa and Aaron Rowand stopped being relevant years ago. The same can be said for Aubrey Huff and Edgar Renteria. If there's an X-Factor on the roster its catcher Buster Posey, the 5th overall pick in 2008. Posey currently sits behind aging Bengie Molina but could see a call up sooner than September if he rakes in the minors or Molina slips or, most likely, both. Posey could be the protection Sandoval needs, it's just a matter of when he will arrive.

The rotation though? That's a different story. Led by two-time Cy Young winner Tim "Puff Puff Pass" Lincecum, the Giants will also trot out the underrated Matt Cain, overpaid Barry Zito(who is quickly becoming this generation's Denny Neagle) and potential breakout candidate Jonathan Sanchez. The bullpen has former All-Star lefty Jeremy Affeldt setting up righty Brian Wilson(38 saves) for a nice 8th-9th combination, which will be even more valuable if Zito can make it past 5 innings.

The key will be the guys around Sandoval helping out the hefty switch-hitter. If pitchers don't have to fear being burnt for walking the Panda, not even Lincecum and Cain in lights-out mode will be able to keep this team into games. On the bright side though, Bonds insists he's not retired yet and Nate Schierholtz isn't exactly cause to not take Bonds' phone call.

5. San Diego: It's hard to find anything positive to say about the Padres. Thier best player, 1B Adrian Gonzalez, probably won't finish the season playing home games in Petco Park as the team continues to cut payroll. They just sold off ace Jake Peavy in the middle of last season for a couple bags of peanuts. There isn't a guy outside of Gonzo in this lineup that people out of their immediate family would recognize outside of maybe David Eckstein(which should tell you all you need to know about the lineup. When David Eckstein is the second most recognizable guy in your lineup, you're dicked). The pitching staff is a mess. 6'11 righty Chris Young is money when he's healthy, which is never. Jon Garland could flourish in Petco but that would only lead to his exile. I won't even waste any more space on this team. Put it like this: Tiger Woods has a better chance of winning Husband of the Year in 2010 than the Padres do of matching their 75 wins from last season.

Gabe's Projected Finish

1. Colorado Rockies - Here is an interesting fact about the Rockies...last year, on opening day, they were the only team in the majors to start a homegrown player at every position. It seems that GM Dan O'Dowd's long-term plan is working. Will that translate to wins? I think so. Their line-up has a great mix of young talent and veteran leadership. Youngsters like Troy Tulowitzki, Ian Stewart, Chris Iannetta, and Dexter Fowler all have great potential and the Rockies are counting on them to have breakout seasons. They also have veterans Clint Barmes and Todd Helton leading the team. I like all three of their top starters, Ubaldo Jimenez, Aaron Cook, and Jorge De La Rosa. Huston Street will hold it down as the closer. Because of their balance, I think the Rockies will win what really is a very wide open race.

2. L.A. Dodgers - The Dodgers line-up is loaded. From top to bottom there isn't really a weakness with the standouts being Matt Kemp, Rafael Furcal, Andre Ethier, and of course Mr. Manny being Manny himself, Manny Ramirez. They also have a great bullpen, so once they get to the eighth inning they will be able to lock down most games. Jonathan Broxton is a stud and George Sherrill, a former closer, should do very well as a set-up man. The glaring problem for the Dodgers will be having the starting pitching to get to that eighth inning. Their "ace" Chad Billingsley had such a bad second-half of last season that he was left off of the post-season roster. Clayton Kershaw is very young and very talented, but only went 8-8 last year. Hiroki Kuroda ain't scaring anyone. If the Dodgers can get long innings out of their starters, or some good middle relief they could win the division. I think they will struggle with both though and end up just short of the Rockies.

3. San Francisco Giants - One theme you will notice in my predictions is my love of teams will balance. I like teams with a mix of young and old, power and speed, and good pitching and hitting, etc. Well, the Giants ain't got that. Their starting pitching is nasty, in that colloquial good way. If they play to their potential, top starters, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and Barry Zito, and reigning two-time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum are one of the scariest rotations in the majors. The problem is their line-up. When you hope your tent pole hitter is going to be Pablo Sandoval, you've got issues.

4. Arizona Diamondbacks - I sort of like the D'backs pitching. Dan Haren and Brandon Webb, who is in a contract year, should be solid at the top of the rotation. Chad Qualls is a good closer but would be better suited as a set-up man. I do like the addition of Edwin Jackson too. I think the line-up is just too young and too inexperienced. I'm not sure who is going to be the leader on this young team, and that is a problem. The young line-up has to go through some growing pains before this team will break out.

5. San Diego Padres - Pay no attention to the surge they had during the last third of last season. They were out of the playoff race and had nothing to lose. They have Adrian Gonzalez and not much else in their line-up and their pitching leaves me with a resounding meh. Unless they youngsters retained something from their run last year, which I don't think they did, this team will finish in the NL West cellar.