Preseason Playoff Seedings:
East: 1. Boston 2. Cleveland 3. Orlando 4. Chicago 5. Miami 6. Washington 7. Atlanta 8. Indiana
How It Actually Turned Out: 1. Cleveland 2. Orlando 3. Atlanta 4. Boston 5. Miami 6. Milwaukee 7. Charlotte 8. Chicago
What Went Wrong: I, like many people in the preseason, drank the Flip Saunders-Wizards Kool-Aid and it didn't take long for it leave a sour taste. First, Gilbert Arenas gets suspended, then Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler get dealt in ridiculously one-sided deals. I slept a little on Atlanta(although Gabe didn't, which is something he'll be glad to tell you) and I really didn't expect Milwaukee to get so much out of rookie Brandon Jennings, former top pick Andrew Bogut and journeymen John Salmons and Carlos Delfino. The Bogut injury probably spells doom for them in the first round, but if they aren't the story of the East, I don't know what is. The Indiana collapse should have been expected and the Stephen Jackson to Charlotte traded happened AFTER I made my picks and I obviously didn't think a knucklehead like Capt. Jack was going to turn around a Larry Brown-led team. All in all, 6 of 8 isn't too bad.
What To Expect: Dwayne Wade is going to put on the greatest performance by a player both in his prime and in his contract year and I'd be shocked if the Heat don't send Boston packing in Round 1. The Celtics went from looking old in the first half to just looking pathetic after Christmas. The team has no heart and Doc Rivers' eventual resignation isn't going to cure that. Other than that, it's going to be The LeBron James Show. Miami and Orlando are the only teams with legit shots of dethroning the King and his Knights of the Roundball. Orlando, as Bill Simmons has said most of the season and I mentioned in my preseason piece, made a huge mistake by swapping out Hedo Turkoglu for Vince Carter. Hedo, when paired with Rashard Lewis, gave them two bigs who could stretch the floor with their shooting and Hedo was particularly valuable with his ability to bring the ball up as a point forward. With Vinsanity now, they have one of the all-time playoff choke artists and Vince was particularly dreadful during the regular season with a career-low 16 points per game. With so many midseason advancements to the Cavs and LeBron plotting revenge from last season, I can't see Orlando putting up much of a fight this time around. As for Miami, LeBron vs. Flash will be exciting and if the Heat can play beyond themselves to give Wade a reason to stay over the summer, they can make things tough for Miami. The problem with the Heat is they don't have much inside. Jermaine O'Neal is just as washed up and decaying as the other O'Neal in this series won't be able to hold up inside and there's nobody on the Heat that can guard LeBron consistently(D-Wade's a bit too small).
West: 1. San Antonio 2. L.A. Lakers 3. Dallas 4. Phoenix 5. New Orleans 6. Portland 7. Denver 8. Oklahoma City
How It Actually Turned Out: 1. Lakers 2. Dallas 3. Phoenix 4. Denver 5. Utah 6. Portland 7. San Antonio 8. Oklahoma City
What Went Wrong: New Orleans seem to quit almost immediately after the Spurs trounced them on Opening Night. Former Coach of the Year Byron Scott was canned. CP3 missed most of the season and the team. Emeka Okafor turned out to be a disappointing acquisition and the team just flat out bricked all season. The one bright spot for the Hornets was finding Marcus Thornton and Darren Collison in the draft. The only problem being finding minutes for DC next season with Paul fully healthy. I had a complete brain fart with Utah. They've been a playoff fixture since I wore Osh Kosh, so I can't believe I screwed up there. San Antonio, much like Boston, showed their age quickly. Richard Jefferson never manifested into the 3rd option they were hoping to be. Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker got hurt and all the sleeper buzz behind 2nd round steal DaJuan Blair faded after about two months. Still, the Spurs are a dangerous team and if they can find a sudden fountain of youth, they may be the Lakers biggest competition. In the end though, I managed to hit 7 of 8 and nailed the exact seeding on Portland and Oklahoma City.
What To Expect: I was always skeptical of this Lakers team and nothing's really changed. Kobe is still Kobe but you can tell all those games on his career odometer are starting to slow him down a little. Ron Artest wasn't the brilliant find many in Lakerland were championing in October. That being said, fate has given L.A. all the breaks. The Spurs have shown their age. The Blazers lost Roy and Oden to injury. The Nuggets have been a train wreck since coach George Karl was diagnosed with cancer and took a leave. The Mavs have to prove they can get it done in the playoffs. Otherwise, we're looking at the Finals we should have gotten last year: Lakers-Cavs. Kobe vs. LeBron.
Preseason Eastern Conference Finals Pick: Cavs over Celtics
Current Pick: Cavs over Magic - Again, Vince Carter has been what some experts expected and what some Magic loyalists refuse to accept: an utter disappointment. Much like his cousin Tracy McGrady, he's never been a postseason savant and now that the Cavs have a forward who can stretch the floor and the combo of Big Z and Shaq's corpses inside, this rematch of last year is going to have a different result. As great as Dwight Howard is inside, he's not someone who takes over a close game and you have to think all of Stan Van Gundy's screaming is bound to fall on deaf ears. Cavs in 5.
Preseason Western Conference Finals Pick: Spurs over Lakers
Current Pick: Lakers over Mavericks - Tim Duncan has gotten old fast and even with a rejuvenated Manu, they can't match up with Dallas' newfound depth thanks to the Caron Butler trade. Brandon Haywood, while not the greatest of centers, is an adequate big in a contract year. What better time for him to show up than these next two months? Jason Kidd will probably be a turnstile for quicker point guards throughout these playoffs but that will be offset by a big postseason from Dirk Nowitzki. As for a Conference Finals matchup with L.A., the question for Dallas will be the same for anyone facing the Lakers out West: Who's stopping Kobe? Caron Butler is an adequate defender, but not the Bruce Bowen/Raja Bell-type to frustrate The Black Mamba. I think Dallas gives the Lakers a series(also, keep in mind, L.A. getting by Denver in Round 2 isn't exactly a gimme, unless the Nuggets don't make it that far), stretch it to 7 games but pro-Lakers officiating led by the referee pied piper Phil Jackson gives the Lakers their 3rd straight NBA Finals appearence.
Preseason Finals: Cavs over Spurs
Current Pick: Cavs over Lakers - It's the dream scenario of the networks, NBA suits, endorsements and most importantly, fans. Kobe vs. LeBron. Shaq vs. L.A. Obviously, I'd love to see 'Melo vs LeBron more because Carmelo will actually guard LeBron, but this is the marquee matchup everyone's been salivating over for nearly two years now. So what happens? Well, if Andrew Bynum can hold up for this long, there will be at least one game where Shaq shows his old form and dominates his young replacement. LeBron is going to destroy Artest and Kobe is going to destroy Mo Williams which will lead to the inevitable LeBron guarding Kobe and vice versa by at least Game 3. Antawn Jamison will have to drain 15 footers to keep Pau Gasol from patrolling the paint and allowing both LeBron to get to the hoop and Shaq to impose his 600-lb physique on Bynum. The Derek Fisher/Jordan Farmar combo will continue to be exposed defensively and if Shaq has his way with Bynum more than once, the "Should the Lakers have made a deal for Chris Bosh?" question will come into play for the rest of the series. Ultimately, this has been the Year of LeBron and the only way to build suspense for his upcoming free agency this summer will be to end this season with a ring. If the Cavs can't pull through and Mike Brown gets completely outcoached by Phil Jackson and the Lakers deny the Cavs, then I expect LeBron to do the right thing and get the hell out of Cleveland. Regardless, I like the Cavs in 7 with LeBron and Kobe trading career nights at least once.
Preseason MVP Pick: LeBron James
Current Pick: LeBron James - If I have to explain this one to you, you probably shouldn't be reading this.
Preseason Def. Player of the Year : LeBron James
Current Pick: Josh Smith - LeBron put on a decent defensive showing, averaging a block and nearly two steals a game, but Josh Smith averaged close to 3 blocks a game and nearly 2 steals. Dwayne Wade could get some action here and defending champ and NBA blocks leader Dwight Howard will get votes, too, but I think this one goes to Smith.
Preseason Rookie of the Year: Stephen Curry, Warriors
Current Pick: Tyreke Evans, Kings - This award can go between either Curry or Evans. Brandon Jennings deserves some credit for actually being in the playoffs and Darren Collison was stellar in Chris Paul's absence but, in the end, Evans going 20-5-5 and joining MJ, The Big O and The Akron Hammer to do so gives him the nod. Curry brought his shooting acumen that he showed at Davidson and he may turn out to be the better pro long term if the W's get their act together but right now, I'd say it's Evans.
Preseason Coach of the Year: Stan Van Gundy, Magic
Current Pick: Scott Skiles, Bucks - What Skiles did with a Bucks team that many thought was lottery-bound was nothing short of amazing. He made a star out of a rookie who never played a dribble of college ball. He turned Andrew Bogut into a legit Top 5 center prior to his elbow injury. He brought out the best in midseason acquisition John Salmons and he put together a team so menacing that Celtics decided they rather tank and play Miami in Round 1 instead. SVG did an admirable job as well, but bringing a Magic team that was in the Finals last year back into the playoffs isn't nearly as impressive of a feat.
Some other Playoff predictions:Biggest X-Factor in the Playoffs: Kevin Durant, F, Thunder - The NBA's youngest-ever scoring champ has all the tools to lead his Thunder to a huge upset over the Lakers. On talent alone, the Thunder can match up with L.A., but experience is what is going to kill them. Still, Kid Dynamite and his inevitable dismantling of the once-defensively-great Ron Artest will be the story of Round 1 and if the Thunder can do what the Warriors did to the Mavs a couple years ago, they'll have one hell of a magical run. That's a big IF though. Jackson has already started his mind games with the refs and eventhough Durant vs. LeBron would be a great NBA Finals, I can't see anything standing in the way of Commisioner Stern's dream ratings bonanza.
The Playoffs Biggest Disappointment Will Be(team) : Denver - Boston would be the easy answer, but I think more people expect them to end their season early. Denver was considered the biggest threat to L.A. in the West and a legit Finals contender. I even wrote a few months ago after the epic Nuggets-Cavs showdown that came down to the buzzer that more people should be rooting for 'Melo vs LeBron in the Finals. However, George Karl got cancer and a team that was already a powder keg mentally looks ready to blow. When your star forward is ready to sit out the playoffs because someone filled his car with popcorn, you're clearly a team that lacks discipline and I don't think Karl will have the strength to right this ship. In fact, I think their Round 1 series with Utah goes 7 and it wouldn't surprise me if the Jazz send 'Melo and company home early.
The Playoffs Biggest Disappointment Will Be(player) : Vince Carter - Magic fans want to talk themselves into Vince Carter saving his best for late in the season but, trust me, it's not coming. Vince has proven to be a guy who wants no part of contact in the paint and he's not that great of a shooter to rely on his jumper. Defensively, he's nothing to write home about either. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if he gets taken to school routinely in Round 1 by Capt. Jack and Gerald Wallace. There's a reason there's no ring on Carter's finger and it has alot to do with the self-inflicted malfunctions to the thing beating in his chest as well as the absence of anything between his legs.
The Biggest Story During These Playoffs Will Be: Poor Officiating - It's been dreadful in the NBA for decades and with Stern smelling Kobe vs LeBron once again, he's not about to let anything stand in his way. Look, do I think the NBA is fixed? No, but we saw during the Jordan years that big time stars get the preferential treatment in big spots and with LeBron's potential exit from Cleveland being the overwhelming story throughout the season and even more so during the playoffs, you can bet that there will be some dubious calls to keep that storyline strong.
Playoffs' Surprise Star Will Be: J.J. Redick, Magic - It disgusts me to even put that in print but, really, most of your breakout stars are household names. I think Durant and Wade will be make a run at Kobe's standing as the NBA's 2nd best player. If Bogut and Roy were healthy, I think they would be the catalysts behind their team's upsets. Derrick Rose would be in the running if his 2nd straight taste at the postseason wasn't coming against a Cavs team on a mission. However, this has been the year for Duke and Redick has finally shown his trademark stroke, hitting 40% from 3 and 43% from the field. With teams focusing in on VC, Lewis and Howard, Redick will get a lot of open looks and Redick is one of best pure shooters in this tournament.
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