Sunday, April 25, 2010

Thoughts On The 2010 NFL Draft

When doing a post-Draft analysis, some choose to hand out grades. Some choose to do "winners" and "losers". I've been guilty of doing such in past years. The problem with that is that you're assessing grades or wins and losses on things like name recognition, how do these players fit, where they were taken. It's never based on them actually playing football and, more often than not, the writer looks like an idiot when the team they gave an "F" or called a "loser" has the best rookie class of the bunch. So, I decided to lean away from those two formats and offer up some thoughts. Gabe will be weighing in at some point with his takes as well.

*The story of Day 1 was the Broncos moving back into the 1st round(after moving down for wide reciever Demaryius Thomas) to select Florida QB Tim Tebow, and rightfully so. I'll give Broncos coach Josh McDaniels credit for having the onions to roll the dice on the Draft's biggest enigma. However, two problems I have with the pick. One, McDaniels won't reap the benefits of the Tebow for two years, at the very least. Who's to say he'll still be employed with Denver by then? The Broncos are coming off an 8-8 season after starting 6-0 and McDaniels already is in the crosshairs of Bronco loyalists due to his jettisoning the team's two best players(QB Jay Cutler and WR Brandon Marshall) in back-to-back years. If McDaniels doesn't have instant success in a division in which everyone(even the Raiders) improved, McDaniels may be on the outside looking in when Tebow takes his first snap at Invesco.

Secondly, because this team was 8-8, it clearly isn't a complete enough team to roll the dice on a QB many thought wouldn't go higher than the 3rd round two months ago. The Broncos still need a slew of help on defense. A guy like safety Taylor Mays or LB Sergio Kindle or especially nose tackle Dan Williams would have help this team out immediately. The NFL is a "win now" league. Taking a gamble on a guy like Tebow would have been nice in the later rounds, but in the first round when you have needs elsewhere? Pretty risky. Tebow's not even a guarantee to be even a serviceable QB. He was more of an option QB at Florida and his mechanics will take an almost daily supervision to get him anywhere near NFL-ready.

It also makes you wonder why the team made a trade for QB Brady Quinn if it was intending on bringing in Tebow. What happens if Quinn bounces back from a bad start in Cleveland and becomes a Pro Bowl QB? What do you do with Tebow then? These are questions McDaniels will have to answer more often if the Broncos aren't an immediate contender in the time it takes Tebow to develop.

*If I had to pick teams that I thought did an admirable job, I'd go with New England, Baltimore, San Francisco, Pittsburgh and Seattle.

At the risk of being a homer, I liked New England's pick of Rutgers CB Devin McCourtey in Round 1. He's a speedy corner who can tackle. I did, however, think the Pats went to the Florida well too often. OLB Jermaine Cunningham is nice, but ILB Brandon Spikes got knocked for his lack of speed(something that might be necessary in the 3-4 scheme). Tight end Aaron Hernandez was a nice pickup for a team that's going to need someone to cover for Wes Welker on the short intermediate throws. Hernandez and 2nd rounder Rob Gronkowski improve a tight end position that has been lacking since Ben Coates left. Still, the best moves made by Belichick and company was securing picks for next year. They already had two first rounders in 2011(theirs and Oakland's, by way of the Richard Seymour trade) and now have two 2nd rounders in '11 as well. It remains to be seen whether next year's class will be as deep as this one but having four picks in the first two rounds is always nice to have.

Baltimore missed out on Dez Bryant but made up for by hauling in a pass-rushing complement to Terrell Suggs in Texas LB Sergio Kindle and got significantly more beefy up front with 380lb nose tackle Terrence Cody. Cody's had struggles with weight and that has led to a lack of stamina but if he can be Ted Washington for 15-20 plays a game, the Ravens will be even tougher to run on in the future. Baltimore also doubled up on tight ends, finding Todd Heap's replacements in Ed Dickson from Oregon and BYU's Dennis Pitta. Not going with a young wideout with Derrick Mason getting up in years and Donte Stallworth a uncertainty was kind of surprising, but a solid draft nonetheless.

Pittsburgh was the big story leading up the Draft as Ben Roethlisberger trade rumors ran rampant. Inevitably, the team kept its troubled franchise QB and went out and filled a couple holes. Maurkice Pouncey was considered the best interior lineman in this Draft and he will open holes for RB Rashard Mendenhall. Pitt also got some depth in their LB core with Va. Tech's Jason Worilds and Ohio St.'s Thaddeus Gibson. Gibson was considered a fringe 1st rounder by some scouts. Both will be sitting behind LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison for a while but it gives the Steelers some youth options. The Steelers also brought back CB Bryant McFadden, who signed with Arizona after the Super Bowl a year ago but was traded back on Day 3. McFadden fills the Steelers' biggest need, which was in the secondary. Another pick I liked? 6th rounder Jon Dwyer, RB out of Georgia Tech. At 6', 230lbs, Dwyer is the inside runner that Mendenhall isn't. He'll play the short-yardage role once handled by Jerome Bettis and has since been passed around from Najeh Davenport to Gary Russell to Carey Davis. Dwyer comes from a triple option scheme at Ga. Tech and there are issues about his lack of speed but if he makes this team, he can be the ideal goalline back.

Then, there's Seattle and San Francisco. San Francisco made the biggest statement in Round 1, passing up on QB Jimmy Clausen twice and instead deciding to help out current QB Alex Smith by getting some line help. The team traded up for Rutgers OT Anthony Davis. Davis can be an all-world tackle if he gets his head on straight and keeps his weight in check. Luckily, he'll have head coach Mike Singletary kicking his butt every week. Singletary managed to make a star out of the enigmatic Vernon Davis so we'll see what he does with his new right tackle. The Niners then used its second 1st rounder on road-grading Idaho guard Mike Iupati. Iupati was getting consideration in the top 10 because of his ability to eventually move to right tackle. Some scouts compare Iupati to former Steelers/Jets All-Pro guard Alan Faneca. Iupati is a bit raw in terms of pass blocking but he immediately makes the Niners a better running team. In the second round, the Niners stole USC safety Taylor Mays. Mays looked like a top 10 pick if he came out as a junior but got exposed for his lack of cover skills and open-tackling ability during his senior year at SC. Still, Mays is a 6'3 230lb headhunter with 4.3 speed. He instantly makes a terrible Niners secondary better AND a bit more intimidating. A couple other sleeper picks by the Niners? 3rd round LB Navarro Bowman from Penn St and 6th round RB Anthony Dixon from Mississippi State. Bowman is in an instinctive linebacker from a school that breeds instinctive linebackers. He helps out a linebacking core that didn't have much beyond ILB Patrick Willis. Dixon is a bruiser at 6' 233lb and gives the Niners yet another back to use in short yardage situations. The Niners also made a couple notable post-draft moves, signing troubled RB LaGarrette Blount and strong-armed WVU QB Jarrett Brown. Of the two, Brown has the best shot to make the team.

Seattle, meanwhile, stole the best left tackle in the draft in Okla. St.'s Russell Okung. He fills a HUGE need on the offensive line with Walter Jones finally calling it a career. With the second pick in the 1st round, they grabbed ball-hawking safety Earl Thomas, who looked like a top 10 pick but fell to the middle of the round. After flirting with Broncos WR Brandon Marshall most of the offseason, the Seahawks got a young WR that can start right away in Notre Dame's Golden Tate. Tate is a bit small and he doesn't get off the line great, but he's great after the catch. He reminds me of former FSU wideout Peter Warrick. The moves that got the most attention for the Seahawks were the trades for RBs LenDale White and Leon Washington on Day 3. White gets reunited with former college coach Pete Carroll, as does 6th round TE Anthony McCoy and undrafted free agents G Jeff Byers and S Josh Pinkard. White will probably enter camp as the lead back but will split carries with incumbent Justin Forsett and, inevitably, Washington when he returns from that gruesome broken leg he suffered last year. The Seahawks didn't address their need at defensive end, even with Jason Pierre-Paul and Derrick Morgan on the board when they took Thomas but some of the pass-rushing void left by the departures of Darryl Tapp, Patrick Kerney and Cory Redding will be picked up by last year's draft gem, Nick Reed.

*Usually, after the Draft, we kill the Raiders but, much to the surprise of many, they had a good draft. They shocked the world by opting for MLB Rolando McClain instead of an oddball pick like Iupati or OT Bruce Campbell(whom Oakland still managed to get in Round 4). They got some beef on the defensive line in Lamarr Houston. They got some OT prospects for that woeful offensive line in the massive Bruce Campbell and small-school wonder Edwin Veldheer. It will be a year or two before Campbell and Veldheer are ready to go but if the Raiders hit on both of them, they may have saved themselves quite a bit of money by not having to draft a tackle in the future. The biggest move for the silver and black? Acquiring Redskins QB Jason Campbell in a Day 3 trade. Campbell got a large share of criticism for things going south in Washington(some of it warrented, most of it not) but his numbers increased year after year even while the team was crumbling around him. Like with the two rookie OTs, Campbell's presence saves the Raiders from spending big money on a franchise QB. It also bids adieu to the failed JaMarcus Russell experiment. Campbell isn't a lock to be a hit in Oakland. He still has trouble holding the ball too long and the Raiders lack a proven go-to guy at wideout(although 4th round pick Jacoby Ford, the fastest guy at the Combine, might ail some of that). Campbell will still have to hope the offensive line improves rapidly and that the team can get a run game from disappointing 1st round RB Darren McFadden. Still, it's better than holding a clipboard in D.C. for the forseeable future.

*Trades of veteran players were aplenty in the Draft's final day. There was the aforementioned Campbell, White, Bryant McFadden and Washington. There was also the Raiders trading away LB Kirk Morrison to Jacksonville. There were also a number of guys who were believed to be available but weren't dealt. RB Marshawn Lynch seemed like a certain goner after the Bills took RB C.J. Spiller 9th overall. The same for stone-handed Cowboys wideout Roy Williams, whose days were believed to be numbered after the team drafted WR Dez Bryant. A couple other Cowboys that didn't go anywhere, surprisingly? RB Marion Barber, who was believed to be on the block, and LB Bobby Carpenter, who almost certainly looked like he'd be reunited with Bill Parcells in Miami. Ravens RB Willis McGahee also survived the weekend, as did Jags DT John Henderson and Darren McFadden. Of course, all are candidates to be cut or dealt before long, but in a final day with such rapid movement, it's amazing they are still standing.

*There is nobody who you can really slam this year. Most of the teams did well, and the teams that didn't, didn't exactly blow it completely. The biggest headscratchers were Tebow going to Denver at 25 and the Jags taking Cal DT Tyson Alualu #10, when many had Alualu as a 2nd round pick. In a deep draft, everyone pretty much came away with someone of note. The Panthers and Bears, who waited the longest to make their first picks, got some solid steals. The Panthers got the QB they've waited forever for in Jimmy Clausen. The Bears got a playmaking safety in Major Wright and another steal in hometown hero DE Corey Wootton from Northwestern. The Browns took their sweet time but still ended up with Texas QB Colt McCoy.

If there were a couple teams that didn't do as well as others, it would be the Jags(who couldn't secure the trade down they wanted and ended up reaching for Alualu, on top of a few other questionable picks), the Giants(never addressed their HUGE need at MLB), the Packers(nothing beyond short-armed OT Bryan Bulaga and failed to address needs for a return guy and depth at corner), and Houston(as predicted, didn't take a RB in the first round and opted for Ben Tate in Round 2. Texans also may have made a mistake in taking Kareem Jackson over Kyle Wilson at corner). The Eagles made some savvy moves, trading up for DE Brandon Graham(over taking a safety like Earl Thomas, which was the big rumor), drafting Nate Allen to finally replace Brian Dawkins at free safety and making some slick trades and late round steals such as Florida WR Riley Cooper and Clemson DE Ricky Sapp.

Ultimately, it was a solid night by all. If there's one underlying storyline it will be the Rams and Sam Bradford. With Jimmy Clausen slipping to Round 2, many will wonder if the smart move would have been taking the best player in this draft, Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh, and then waiting for a QB like Clausen or McCoy in Round 2 instead of hitching its wagon to signal caller with as many red flags as Bradford.

That's the beauty of the Draft though: It gives us plenty to talk about, even after it's over.

No comments:

Post a Comment