Five Fearless Predictions

If you watched me collapse down the stretch like Gabe's Mets during our 2009 NFL weekly pick-off, then you know to take my prognostications with a grain of salt(although, when compared to Stephen A. Smith's lofty predictions, I don't look nearly as bad). Nevertheless, I'm back again with five bold statements you should take to the bank the rest of this year. Here they are:



1. Some network will overpay Erin Andrews and the inevitable "Erin Andrews Show" will tank: All of this talk about free agency has allowed us to overlook the soon-to-expiring contract of another hot sports entity: ESPN's sideline princess, Erin Andrews. Andrews is coming off a Javy Lopez-like contract year. She blew up the Internet with an "accidentally" leaked peep hole video of her butt naked in her hotel room. Then, she bounced back from that fiasco to make an Xavier-like run in Dancing With The Stars. Now, she will go back to the negotiating table when her contract expires in July(from what I'm told, it's July 1) with her popularity at its peak and her star on the rise. So what happens now with Erin Andrews? You can't expect her to want to go back to doing what she was doing before now that she's twice as popular and well-known as she was a year ago. That's why she'll ask for her own show, and somebody(be it ABC, FoxSports, ESPN, Versus, etc.) will give it to her. She's become a household name. Hell, Bonnie Hunt managed to lock down a show and she's a nobody. You don't think somebody will greenlight "The Erin Andrews Show" given her status as a 17-35 male magnet? If people are tuning in for Michelle Beadle's homely mug on SportsNation, you don't think they'd do the same for Andrews? Of course they would!

Here's the thing: We don't know if Erin Andrews is an actual bonafide sports chick who can break bread with star athletes or just some teleprompter champion who couldn't tell an out route from an outhouse. Her claims to fame thus far have been getting naked on camera, doing the cha-cha for charity and lobbing softball questions on the sidelines. Inevitably, you need something besides being hot as a reason for people to watch your show. Guys can find hot chicks anywhere. If you want them to pay attention to you, you need to have some substance. You also need your production staff and your network to not portray you as some pin-up model and instead, as someone whose views should be respected. I'm not sure if Andrews can get that kind of respect from both the suits and a fickle fan base who will be tuning in for something other than Andrews' thoughts on the Jets' offseason acquisitions.

2. Dirk Nowitzki will leave Dallas as a free agent this season: When you look at Dirk Nowitzki's situation, it isn't that much different from LeBron James'. He's a free agent who wants to play for a winner while he has the opportunity to pick his location. Like James, Nowitzki's previous employer will try to bring back Dirk by trying to sell the Mavs as a contender, even if everything in the past suggests otherwise. Look, I know the odds are against me on this one, but hear me out. Nobody thought Steve Nash would ever leave Dallas to go back to Phoenix, but it eventually happened. Nowitzki wants a no-trade clause and a salary close to the money he was making before(he was scheduled to make $21 million had he not opted out of his final year). If Mark Cuban low-balls Dirk like he did Nash, who is to say Dirk won't get offended and go elsewhere?

After all, Dirk has options. He could reunite with Nash in Phoenix. The Suns are about to lose Amare Stoudemire so they can use the money that would have went to Amare and pay Dirk and make one last run before Nash retires. Remember, the Suns made an improbable run to the Western Conference Finals this past season and that's with guys like Jared Dudley and Robin Lopez. You team Dirk with Nash again, and keep that supporting cast of J-Rich, Lopez, Hill and Barbosa, and the Suns are in a better position than Dallas would be. Dallas has Jason Kidd's rotting corpse, an aging Jason Terry, the solid-but-unproven Caron Butler, and Erick Dampier's contract. They've lost in the first round three of the last four years. For whatever reason, they just can't get in done in May and June. Can Cuban really say that the Mavs can make a title run if Dirk comes back and the team trades half of its core for LeBron? Another interesting option? New Jersey. They have Dirk's old coach Avery Johnson, who led Dirk's Mavs to the Finals in 2006. They have a need at small forward and are probably on the outside looking in in the LeBron Sweepstakes. Could a Brook Lopez-Derrick Favors-Dirk-mid-level-free agent(let's say Ray Allen)-Devin Harris starting five compete in the weak East? I think so.

Again, I'd say there's a 40% chance of Dirk leaving, but it's not as impossible as the suits in Dallas' front office would lead you to believe. LeBron's leaving Cleveland. Paul Pierce may be leaving Boston. There are places Dirk can go and contend that are better than Dallas. Loyalty is great, but it also has a price.

3. The Philadelphia Eagles won't win more than 6 games this season: Karma tends to strike teams that bid adieu to their franchise QB a bit too soon. The Broncos never really recovered when John Elway left. Same goes for Miami with Dan Marino(though, in fairness, they both retired. They weren't traded). The Packers went 6-10 after trading Brett Favre. The Niners missed the playoffs in their first year without Joe Montana. The same will hold true for Philadelphia after foolishly trading QB Donovan McNabb to division rival Washington. McNabb may not be a Hall of Famer like the previously mentioned signal-callers but he's still a guy who carried his team to five NFC Championship appearances and a Super Bowl berth. Kevin Kolb, McNabb's successor, is adequate but he's going to need time to develop chemistry with his young receivers like DeSean Jackson.

On top of that, the team cut longtime rusher Brian Westbrook. The moves may have made Philly younger but it also cut into the team's leadership. Add the death of Jim Johnson last year causing the defense to take a step back and the embarrassing way they finished last season(with back-to-back losses to the Cowboys that both cost them the division title AND eliminated them from the playoffs). The defense also has its share of disgruntled employees. Ellis Hobbs wants a new deal. Asante Samuel was on the trading block for a while. The secondary also takes a hit with Marlin Jackson out for the season and rookie Nate Allen replacing him at free safety.

The division also got better around the Eagles. The Giants added to their defense and, if you know anything about New York teams, they will use the Chad Jones tragedy as a motivation this season(Another prediction inside of a prediction: Giants' 1st round pick, DE Jason Pierre-Paul: 8 sacks, 4 forced fumbles.....take that to the bank). The Redskins not only added McNabb(who obviously will be looking for revenge against Philly) but also hired Mike Shanahan as head coach, brought in Trent Williams and Jammal Brown to shore up the O-Line as well as a couple once-great RBs in Larry Johnson and Willie Parker to help the running game. Dallas? Well, they'll take a step back with Flozell Adams no longer protecting Tony Romo's blind side but they added rookie WR Dez Bryant and that defense is still playoff-caliber. So, the road ahead for Philly is going to be tougher and having to break in a new QB just makes it that much more difficult. I'm not saying Kolb will be a total bust, but expecting him to pick up where McNabb left off is a bit far-fetched.

4. By September, most of America will forget about the World Cup: I mentioned this last year in my Michael Jackson tribute and I'll say it again: Americans are fad-jumpers. We like to be patriotic when it suits us. Most of us only really cared about soccer because Team USA was still in it. Now that they aren't? It's back to business as usual. You know why football is America's new pasttime? Because it's a sport dominated by American-born players. Baseball used to be like that, but as international players started to catch up, Americans lost interest. The same for basketball. We all loved watching Team USA in the Olympics, until we started getting our ass kicked. Then, The Redeem Team won the gold and, all of a sudden, it was all about rooting for America. Why do you think hockey isn't popular anymore? There aren't that many American stars(which is funny, because hockey for the last three decades was ruled by Mario Lemieux and Wayne Gretzky....both Canadians). American sports fans are the biggest bandwagoners in the world. They are as fickle as a child's mind. Most of the people who clogged up Twitter and Facebook with GO USA chants couldn't name you five soccer players playing in the World Cup.

We like to get ourselves all riled up for the Olympics, not because we are patriotic souls, but because we enjoy having bragging rights. We like to be arrogant and rub victory in the faces of the less fortunate. Anyone with a legitimate amount of followers on Twitter will notice the dearth of World Cup tweets since Ghana sent USA packing a few days ago. Now, I don't mind soccer, but it's certainly way down on my list of sports. I rooted for Italy this year, but I'll admit I couldn't give you one person on the team(and that's with Gabe spending the spring doing World Cup previews on this very website), but at least I'll admit it. I'm not some fairweather fan like most of America decided to be when USA made the Round of 16. Regardless, USA's run is over and the World Cup will get a little buzz these next couple months because only NBA free agency and baseball stand in its way of making headlines. However, the closer we get to NFL training camp, the further World Cup soccer will appear in the rear view mirror of most Americans. The flags will go back in the closet and we'll go back to not caring about soccer. It's just the American way.

5. By this time next year, Americans will also forget about Drake: I always get asked about my hatred of Drake. Look, I've listened to hip-hop for nearly 20 years. I know the difference between a real MC and a guy who is the product of hype of well-placed marketing. Drake is the latter. He got on a record with three other notable rappers(one of which, Lil Wayne, who I might dislike more than I dislike Drake) and got outshined by at least two of them(Kanye and Eminem...as if I had clarify). Drake sings AND he raps. You can't do both and expect to be credible to hardcore hip-hop fans. It didn't work for Ja Rule. It didn't work for Missy Elliot. Even 50 Cent saw his numbers drop when he started to harmonize. Now, I know, Drake sold nearly half a million copies in his first week, which is impressive in a economy where funds are low and CD sales are dwindling, but record sales never translate to talent. MC Hammer sold alot of records. So did Vanilla Ice. Would you call them some of hip-hop's greatest lyricists? In the end, talent wins out. Talib Kweli doesn't sell many records, but he's still around. The same for Gabe's boys, The Roots. Same goes for guys like Method Man and Redman. When you have skills, people will find you.

Eventually, the fickle fan base that buys Drake's records(read: suburban white kids) will get tired of his Al B. Sure sing-a-long gimmick and move on to someone else. Don't believe me? When's the last time you heard a Jibbs record? How about Young Joc? Remember how hot Nelly was at one time? Now, he couldn't sell his album at Cardinals games. Hip-hop, as myself and Gabe came to know it and love it as we grew up, has died tragically. It went from a creative art form to a gimmick that corporations unfamiliar with the culture now use to line their pockets. Every now and then, you get a hot album like Jay-Z's Blueprint 3 or Eminem's Recovery, but for the most part, hip-hop now consists of ringtone rappers. As the state of hip-hop moves more and more toward guys with weak flows and nursery rhymes, hot rappers of the moment become more and more replaceable. That will become evident when Drake is the delivery boy for Topper's Pizza a year from now.