Week 3 Picks

Big time bounceback week for Dave, who went 9-7 in Week 2 while Gabe collapsed like Lindsay Lohan with a putrid 5-11. Anyway, here's our take on Week 3. Lines brought to you by Danny Sheridan of USA Today.

Last Week: Dave(9-7), Gabe(5-11)

Season: Dave(16-14-2), Gabe(14-16-2)

Titans(+3) at Giants

Dave: Giants - Like any team facing Tennessee, this comes down to "Can you stop Chris Johnson?". We know Jeff Fisher isn't going to put Vince Young, the QB who he clearly was never enamored with, in a position to make plays throwing the ball against this mean Giants pass rush. So, we'll be looking at A LOT of touches for C.J. Giants need to make up for getting embarressed by Indy last week and I think they come out firing here. Besides, I'll believe Tennessee is more than just an average bunch that beats up on lightweights when they pull off a big win. I like the Giants by 6.

Gabe: Giants - The Giants are going to be looking to bounce back after getting rolled by the Colts on national TV. They'll get CJ2K get his and make Vince Young win this game for the Titans. It won't happen. Giants by a touchdown.

Bills(+14.5) at Patriots

Dave: Bills - The Bills are, by far, the league's worst team but their pass defense is better than you think. Aaron Rodgers, leader of one of the best offensive attacks in football, didn't have a field day on this defense last week and Miami didn't do so hot the week before. The Patriots can't run the ball, which means the running game will be represented by dump-offs and screens. Will the Bills pull off the upset? Hell no. Could they keep it within two touchdowns by frustrating Tom Brady and his Bieber haircut? I think so. Pats by 13.

Gabe: Patriots - Once again the Bills are roughly a two touchdown dog this early in the season. They stink. They are on the road. Pats by 20.

Browns(+10.5) at Ravens

Dave: Ravens - Tough call here, not because I think Cleveland has a chance, but because I don't know if this Ravens offense has it in them to score more than 10 points. You would like to think if Baltimore's offense is going to come alive, it will be against a terrible Browns team that will be trotting out Seneca Wallace once again. The Ravens D has to be able to scrounge up at least 14 points off Wallace miscues, right? I think this is the Joe Flacco coming out party we've been waiting on. Ravens by 17.

Gabe: Ravens - Cleveland stinks on defense. Cleveland stinks on offense. Baltimore is a complete team. Ray Rice will run all over the Browns and the Ravens defense will shut down the Browns offense. Ravens by 14.

Steelers(-3) at Bucs

Dave: Steelers - Closest thing to a lock pretty much all season. I won't even go further into the details. Steelers by 13.

Gabe: Steelers - The Steelers defense is going to be too much for the Bucs and their young offense. Way too much. Steelers by double digits.

Bengals(-3) at Panthers

Dave: Bengals - I take it back. THIS is the closest thing to a lock pretty much all season. Honestly, you had me at "Panthers starting QB Jimmy Clausen".

Gabe: Bengals - The Cincy defense is probably going to come up with something like seven turnovers. They'll be able to focus on the Panthers stout running game. They'll welcome Jimmy Clausen to the NFL and go home with a double digit win.

Falcons(+3) at Saints

Dave: Saints - I'm not sure if the Falcons are good, the Saints are average or a combination of the two, but I can see Drew Brees exploiting this Falcons secondary enough to be at least two field goals better than Atlanta.

Gabe: Falcons - Fact: The Falcons have allowed only two offensive touchdowns all season. People are sleeping on the Dirty Birds. They will see this as a statement game and I'm calling for the outright win in my....wait for it....Upset Special!!

49ers(-3) at Chiefs

Dave: Chiefs - Kansas City continues to make me look good for picking them to win the West. Niners are coming off a short week and will have to deal with a super-rowdy Arrowhead crowd. Chiefs pull off another upset with a Gabourey Sidibe-ugly 3-point win.

Gabe: 49ers - San Fran can't be as bad as their record, and the Chiefs can't be as good. I think the Niners will bounce back with this game. Look for Gore to have another good game. The Niners went toe-to-toe with the Champs and they'll get the best of KC. Niners by a touchdown.

Lions(+12) at Vikings

Dave: Lions - The Lions, with Shaun Hill at QB, made it a game against Philly last week. Yes, Minnesota's a little bit better than the Eagles, but not enough to make me think they deserve a double-digit spread over Detroit. Favre looks like he wants to retire now and not getting Vincent Jackson will only look worse after Favre floats a couple into double coverage. Vikes by 9.

Gabe: Lions - Twelve is WAY too many points. The Vikings are stumbling. They have A.P., but have few weapons in the passing game right now. The Lions are playing well. This is a division game so it will be heated. Minny by 8.

Cowboys(+2.5) at Texans

Dave: Texans - I knew the Cowboys would disappoint, even as Dallas diehards told me I was crazy. Houston probably shouldn't have won that one last week as Gary Kubiak put on his best Andy Reid brainfart impression. Still, Houston's always had Dallas' number and I can slowly see the wheels come off the Cowboys' bandwagon. Texans by a field goal.

Gabe: Texans - I'm predicting a shootout. The Texans have all the weapons on offense and the Cowboys want to be flashy. For some reason the Cowboys refuse to play boring football, which is exactly what they should be doing. Marion Barber, Felix Jones, Tashard Choice....this should be running team. The point is, they aren't. They are going to try to slug with Houston and are going to come up short. Houston by a touchdown.

Redskins(-4) at Rams

Dave: Redskins - Almost too easy of a pick. Redskins considerably better than the team that barely beat St. Louis last year, even with Albert Haynesworth begging to be traded. McNabb unloads here, Skins by 14.

Gabe: Redskins - This is typically the type of game the Redskins lose. I don't see Shanny letting that happen. Skins by 10.

Eagles(-3) at Jaguars

Dave: Eagles - Don't get it twisted. Andy Reid opting for Mike Vick over Kevin Kolb has more to do with saving his job than making the right call. We all know Reid isn't a smart man, so let's end the hand-ringing right about now. Vick is going to run for days on Jacksonville because Jax doesn't have enough pass rush to make Vick The Quick sweat. The only hope of covering for the Jags is if Philly's D collapses like it did against Detroit last week. Eagles by 10.

Gabe: Eagles - Michael Vick is back. I don't think the Philly defense collapses again. Eagles by 10+.

Colts(-5.5) at Broncos

Dave: Colts - Champ Bailey and Andre Goodman are hobbled for the Broncos secondary, which isn't a good look when Manning is hunting down MVP # 5. This one will be closer than you think, but I still like Indy by 6.

Gabe: Colts - The Broncos have injury issues in the defensive backfield. They are starting garbage at running back. Peyton Manning is going to perform surgery on this defense. Colts win huge.

Chargers(-4.5) at Seahawks

Dave: Chargers - Any sleeper buzz I was feeling around Seattle got brushed off when Denver blew the Seahawks' doors off last week. Sure, you can't make a judgement on a team based off one game and San Diego will be without Ryan Mathews, so Seattle could stay in this one, but I'll take my chances on the Chargers here.

Gabe: Chargers - The Seahawks suck. The Chargers are talented. Darren Sproles and Mike Tolbert fill nicely for Ryan Mathews. San Diego by 7.

Raiders(+4.5) at Cardinals

Dave: Raiders - Two things I believe: 1. I believe the Cardinals suck out loud. 2. I believe in Bruce Gradkowski. Nnamdi Asomugha shuts down Larry Fitzgerald and the Cardinals trot out Max Hall by halftime. Raiders with the upset here.

Gabe: Raiders - Maybe the Cardinals do suck and are not the second best team in the division as I predicted. Gradkowski is going to be good for the Raiders. Raiders win a tight one by a late field goal.

Jets(+2.5) at Dolphins

Dave: Dolphins - No Revis to shut down Marshall. No Edwards to make up for a stumbling offense. Dolphins are a very good team defensively. If this isn't going to be one of the most unwatchable Sunday night games in a long time, I don't know what is. Dolphins by 7 in an ugly one.

Gabe: Jets - Braylon Edwards won't miss more than a play. I think the Jets defense is going to step up. The rest of the offense rallies and they win by 3.

Packers(-3) at Bears

Dave: Packers - I'm treading very carefully here by picking my boys. For one, Chris Williams is out for Chicago, which means an already bad Bears offensive line is down one in its efforts to stop "The Ultimate Warrior" Clay Matthews Jr. Chicago's pass rush does scare me here, but I can see Jay Cutler throwing enough picks(like he did in the opener last year against Green Bay) to offset any stops Chicago's D makes. Aaron Rodgers smells first place and I do, too. Packers by 9.

Gabe: Packers - The Bears played well last week, but this is a division game on Monday Night. That might be just a little too much pressure for Jay Cutler and his fragile head. They'll fall back to earth and the Pack wins by 10.

Week 2 Picks

I paid the price for trying to get too cute last week, as I got crushed by rolling the dice on Oakland over Tennessee and just narrowly missed a Rams cover against the Cardinals. The result was starting the season with a two-game deficit to Gabe.

Hopefully, things change in Week 2. (As always, lines brought to you by Danny Sheridan of USA Today).

Last Week - Dave: 7-7-2, Gabe: 9-5-2

Season - Dave: 7-7-2, Gabe: 9-5-2

Chiefs(+2.5) at Browns

Dave: Chiefs - This spread makes zero sense to me. I know the Browns are at home, but they are coming off a loss to the lowly Bucs. The Chiefs, meanwhile, upset the once-mighty Chargers(as predicted by me in this very space last week) on Monday night. Yes, the Chiefs are on short rest having played deep into Tuesday morning and then having to hop on a plane to Cleveland for an early game against the Browns....BUT Cleveland will be starting Seneca Wallace, which makes an already putrid offense that much more meager. If the Chiefs could stifle San Diego with smoke and mirrors and some big plays by their youngsters, I see no reason why that can't happen against the Browns.

Gabe: Chiefs - The Browns are terrible and, as Dave said, they are starting Seneca Wallace at quarterback. I think the Kansas City defense will be able to tee off on Wallace. I see now reason why the Kansas City offense will have any trouble. The only thing holding me back from really loving K.C. is the travel. They are on a very short week and having to travel a good distance to play this game. This could affect them because they are relying on young and inexperienced players to get the job done. Still, I think they squeeze it out. Give me the Chiefs and a 3-point win.

Packers(-12.5) at Bills

Dave: Packers - Even without Ryan Grant, every aspect of this game points to Green Bay having the advantage. Their athletic front seven should dominate a meek Bills offensive line. Their high-octane offense, even with Brandon Jackson in for Grant, shouldn't have too much trouble with a Posluszny-less defense. The only real concern is if Green Bay takes the foot off the gas late in the game like they did with Philly last week and lets the game get close enough that they don't cover. I say Green Bay unloads on Buffalo. Packers by 17.

Gabe: Packers - You usually don't see lines this big this early in the season. The Packers will be up huge early and then they are going to give Brandon Jackson the ball late to shorten the game. Jackson is going to be out to prove something so he'll keep his intensity up, even as the game drags on. It won't be close, Packers by two touchdowns.

Ravens(-2.5) at Bengals

Dave: Ravens - Tough call here. I wasn't impressed with the Ravens' new offense on Monday night. You can attribute that to the fact they were playing a superb defensive team in the Jets, but they still looked sloppy. The Bengals, meanwhile, looked even more unimpressive, especially on defense. The Ravens are also out for revenge, having gotten swept by Cincy last year. I think Flacco rebounds from a so-so game as the Bengals continue to try to develop a pass rush and they win an ugly 13-10 game on the road.

Gabe: Ravens - Not so tough call. The Ravens' offense is going to want to flex their muscle after what they did last week against the Jets. Cincy's defense was embarrassed last week and they'll be looking to bounce back, but the Ravens have too many weapons. On the other side, great defense always beats good offense, so I'll give the Ravens the advantage there. If the Bengals could get points for TV shows they'd have this in the bag. T.O. and Ochocinco has their silly reality shows. Linebacker Dhani Jones has a fantastic show on the Travel Channel. And, as a bonus, Ochocinco was on The League this week. Too bad they can't. Ravens by a touchdown.

Steelers(+5) at Titans

Dave: Steelers - Before we get carried away about the Titans' dominant performance last week, let's remember that they were beating on a Raiders team that, while some expected to be improved, is still a bit lacking in many aspects. The Steelers beat a Falcons team, albeit an ugly OT victory, who many liked as either division champs in the NFC South or a sexy Wild Card sleeper. Yes, Dennis Dixon isn't going to put on an air show, but the Steelers have always won games with a smashmouth run game and tough D. Tennessee will counter with the Chris Johnson Show, but as CJ saw last year, Pittsburgh knows how to shut Mr. 2000 Yards down.

Gabe: Titans - Tennessee is going to be flying high after that win last week. The Raiders are improved which makes the Titans' win that much more impressive. The Steelers do win using their running game, and needed it to win last week in overtime after only putting up three field goals the rest of the game. As far as handling CJ, there's a thing called film study. Chris Johnson will be out to prove something personally and the Titans roll. Titans by a touchdown.

Eagles(-6.5) at Lions

Dave: Eagles - The infamous Andy Reid terrible clock management reared its ugly yet familiar head late in what could have been a comeback against Green Bay. The fact that Reid can't come up with a late game strategy after this long a tenure as head coach is simply mind-boggling. Regardless, the Eagles are proving to be every bit of the 6-10 team I pegged them to be in June. Luckily, Kevin Kolb's flunked concussion test opened the door for the man who should have been the starting QB all along: Michael Vick. Vick showed last week against a very game Packers D that his legs are back and he's improved as a passer. This time around, he gets a Lions team still reeling off getting jobbed against Chicago. Eagles have too much on D for them not to shut down a Shaun Hill-led Lions offensive attack and Detroit's D, while improved, will not be able to keep up with Vick The Quick. Eagles win by 10.

Gabe: Eagles - This comes down to the quarterbacks. If Matthew Stafford were starting I'd like the Lions a little more. With Shaun Hill starting their offense is diminished. On the other side, Michael Vick is starting for the Eagles, and he looks good. I think the Lions will try to key on Vick and in doing so, allow the rest of the Eagles defense to fun free. Eagles just barely cover and win by a touchdown.

Bears(+7) at Cowboys

Dave: Bears - This is either a trap game or another one of my classic hunches that blows up in my face. On the one hand, I can see a solid Chicago pass rush overwhelming a Cowboys offensive line that was every bit as disappointing as I had expected in the preseason and forcing this offense to continue to sputter. On the other hand, I can see Jay Cutler and his scatter-shot accuracy doing the Bears in and Dallas putting up some points thanks to a game of field position. I'm still not a believer in Dallas and, while I'm hardly on the Bears bandwagon after they stole a win against Detroit, I'm leaning more towards this game being close than Dallas finally deciding to play like the contenders everyone claims they are.

Gabe: Cowboys - Last week, the Cowboys fell victim to a great game plan in Washington and the Bears got lucky against the Lions. (Yes, technically that wasn't a touchdown but the rule stinks and it should have been a touchdown.) Jay Cutler is going to spray the ball and I think the 'Boys will get one defensive touchdown. I think the Dallas offense overwhelms the Chicago defense and the Cowboys win by double digits.

Bucs(+3) at Panthers

Dave: Panthers - The Bucs benefited from Jake Delhomme being Jake Delhomme in their W over Cleveland last week. Carolina will be trotting out a woozy Matt Moore, coming off a concussion, which means they'll be ramming Tampa Bay with a steady dose of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Carolina's better than the team that got stomped by the Giants and the Bucs aren't as good as their win over Cleveland would suggest. Panthers grind this one out, win by a touchdown.

Gabe: Panthers - I think this might be the easiest call on the board. The Panthers got worked by the Giants last week, but the Giants had owed the Panthers that ass-kicking since last season. DeAngelo Williams is going to run wild and Jonathan Stewart is going to have a bounce back game. The Panthers will run the ball down the Bucs' throats, shorten the game, and win a relatively low scoring affair by a touchdown.

Cardinals(+6.5) at Falcons

Dave: Falcons - Atlanta's better than the team that couldn't move the ball against Pittsburgh last week. Arizona looked pedestrian against St. Louis last week and now face a higher quality of opponent in Atlanta. Dunta Robinson will be sticking to Larry Fitzgerald like glue and, with Beanie Wells out, the Cards will have to rely on Derek Anderson finding Steve Breaston early and often. I'm thinking Atlanta's offense rebounds and takes Arizona to task. Falcons by 10.

Gabe: Cardinals - Atlanta is better than they showed last week. I think the Cardinals are going to be one of those teams that plays up and down to their competition. I think they'll get up for this game and will be able to hang with the Falcons. Dave mentioned Derek Anderson to Steve Breaston. That isn't a marquis combo, but it could surprise you and go for two touchdowns. I don't think the Cards will win, but they will keep it close. I think the Falcons win by three, so the Cards beat the spread.

Dolphins(+5.5) at Vikings

Dave: Vikings - Dolphins have to prove they can execute the deep ball if they want to make the Brandon Marshall acquisition legit. Marshall lured in eight catches but for a measly 53 yards against a average Bills secondary. Now, Chad Henne will have to make plays with this Minnesota defensive line constantly in his face, on the road and with running the ball almost not an option with The Williams Wall up the middle. Favre couldn't shake the rust off against New Orleans and the lack of a proven deep threat is going to continue to hurt this offense. Luckily, the struggles in the vertical game will mean Minny will rely on Adrian Peterson a bit more and I don't think Miami can shut down Purple Jesus. Vikings win by 9.

Gabe: Vikings - And again, I don't think it will be close. The Vikings have had a long break after opening the season on Thursday night. They are going to run A.P. like crazy and use the short and mid-range passing game to dink and dunk Miami to death. Miami won't be able to get any traction on offense. The Vikings win by a touchdown.

Rams(+3.5) at Raiders

Dave: Raiders - Really? I have to pick a winner in this one? If not for the 3.5 spread, I'd go push here since this is a battle of two struggling offenses with defenses that are average but have a lot of upside. Rams top pick Sam Bradford is coming off throwing the ball 55 times in his NFL debut after having two shoulder injuries last year at Oklahoma. I wonder how that arm holds up if he's slinging it THIS much. Raiders laid down against Tennessee but the D is better than you think. Raiders eek this one out in a game that will be harder to watch than a Joy Behar sex tape.

Gabe: Rams - This comes down to Stephen Jackson and Sam Bradford. Bradford doesn't have to sling the ball 55 times again for them to win this game, there just has to be the threat that he will. That will loosen the defense up for SJax to run free. I don't expect Oakland to lay down again, but that organization is so dysfunctional I wouldn't be surprised if they do. This game will be won by a field goal either way. So in my "Gabe wouldn't watch this game if it was played in his backyard special," give me the Rams.

Seahawks(+3) at Broncos

Dave: Seahawks - Broncos couldn't really move the ball against a Jags team with not much pass rush beyond a recuperating Aaron Kampman. Seattle, meanwhile, pulled the week's most surprising upset with a thrashing of NFC West darling San Francisco. Kyle Orton's slightly better than Alex Smith but not by much and, really, who is he throwing to in this offense? Seattle pulls off another win as the Tebow chants start to pick up in Colorado.

Gabe: Seahawks - No one was more surprised by the way Seattle played last week more than I. They might be alright. The key here is the Broncos stink. If Seattle is for real then this one will not be close. I'll take the Seahawks to win by a touchdown in a marginal...meh...upset special.

Texans(-2.5) at Redskins

Dave: Texans - Houston finally has a running game thanks to the continued breakout of Arian Foster. Washington was impressive in holding the Cowboys to 7 points last week at home but it's tough to expect them to duplicate that against the Texans, whose offensive line won't shoot themselves in the foot like Dallas did. Redskins also struggle moving the ball, which could be a big problem if Houston continues to heat up on offense. Texans by 10.

Gabe: Texans - The Texans may have finally arrived. The Redskins showed last week that they can't stop a premier receiver when they let Miles Austin go off for thirty fantasy points...I mean, 10 catches, 146 yards, and a touchdown. (Guess who has Mr. Austin on his big $$ fantasy team.) Andre Johnson is going to go nuts. Also, Arian Foster is going to tote the rock against a Redskins team that is historically bad against the run. I think the Redskins suffer a hangover after their win and get torched by Houston and that big time offense. Texans by two touchdowns.

Jaguars(+7) at Chargers

Dave: Chargers - It would be easy to get cute and pick Jacksonville after watching San Diego implode against Kansas City and Jacksonville beat up Denver, but the Chargers aren't as bad as we saw Monday night(although with Marcus McNeil and Vincent Jackson gone, they aren't very good). The Jags always seem to disappoint when momentum is on their side, so I can see San Diego picking Jacksonville apart. I think this is the game Ryan Mathews makes his run at the Rookie of the Year. Chargers by 10.

Gabe: Chargers - The Chargers always start slowly, so I'll give them a pass for last week. They are more talented than Jacksonville and the Jags have to travel all the way across the country for this game. I think the Chargers bounce back and win by double digits.

Patriots(-3) at Jets

Dave: Jets - The Jets are too good to fall 0-2. Randy Moss is going to get lost on Revis Island and I think Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson play better after what had to be a week-long ass-chewing by Rex Ryan. The Patriots can't run the ball. The Jets can, plus they are at home and they are motivated to prove that the hype is real. Shonn Greene comes on strong and Ryan keeps Sanchez from killing the offense. Revis gets his first pick and Moss continues to sulk. Jets by 3.

Gabe: Patriots - The Jets are falling to 0-2. Mark Sanchez is not that good and they can't keep winning games by relying on their defense. Then there is the whole Moss/Revis flap. Revis fucked up. Before Revis was Revis Island, Randy Moss was an all-world receiver. He may have lost a step, but he still has the ability to smoke anyone for one game. He also has Tom Brady throwing him the ball and mad genius Bill Belhichick devising schemes and plays for him. I think Randy Moss is going to have a huge game. Revis shut him down twice last year, so Moss owes him. The Jets have a lot of hype, but they may have bitten off more than they can chew. Pats by 7.

Giants(+5) at Colts

Dave: Colts - Eli Manning and Peyton Manning are brothers from a prestigious family with storied careers. They both have Super Bowl rings and Super Bowl MVPs. That's where the similarities end. Eli facing Peyton in a game of football is like Tito Jackson trying to outdance Michael or a home run derby between Vlad and Wilton Guerrero. Don't let the Colts shitting the bed last week fool you. The Colts are still going to put up points. Yes, Peyton is probably going to toss one to Antrel Rolle here. Yes, the Giants pass rush will get in Peyton's face. Yes, Ahmad Bradshaw is going to go nuts on a soft Colts run D but, in the end, Peyton will prevail over Eli. It's just destined to be.

Gabe: Giants - Before the homer chants get too loud, hear me out. The Giants might be a better all-around team than the Colts. Peyton Manning is so good that covers up many of the flaws in the Colts' game, like their inability to run the ball or stop the run. The inability to run the ball is not that much of an issue. Peyton will throw the ball 110 times a game without blinking. The inability to stop the run is a huge problem, especially when facing Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. The Giants will take this game out of Eli's hands and run the ball down Indy's throat. Peyton will toss the ball a lot, but the Giants are going to pressure him and hopefully get some sacks and turnovers. There is a fun psychological aspect to this game too. If this game were resting on Eli vs. Peyton I'd take Peyton in a runaway, for the same reason I'll always beat my little brothers in Goldeneye, Monopoly, pick-up basketball, dominoes, and the Rodriguez brothers triathlon. (That consists of three games we invented; 5-hit, Chicken-ball, and Dodge-golf. Yes, that last one is exactly what you think it is. So is the first one for that matter. Let me know if you want a breakdown of the rules of Chicken-ball.) I digress, but the point is, older brothers always have an edge over younger brothers. But this game will be taken out of the Manning's hands and I think the Giants win a close game, by a field goal.

Saints(-5.5) at 49ers

Dave: Saints - I'm willing to give San Fran a mulligan for last week. I know they can't really be THAT bad. Does that mean they'll upset the Saints? Hell no. Could they make things interesting by controlling the clock with Frank Gore and letting the D bully Drew Brees? Yes. Still, it's tough to believe San Fran, with Alex Smith at QB, can match this Saints' offense if things get into a shootout. 49ers will be better on offense, just not good enough to keep this from being a 14-point Saints win.

Gabe: Saints - The 49ers gave up 31 points to the Seahawks. We can give them a pass for that because of it being the first week against a division opponent. The Saints are going to house the Niners. I think Drew Breeeeees and the Saints offense but up big numbers in the first half and then they coast in the second half. The Niners will struggle under the lights on Monday Night. Saints by 10.

Who Turned Out The Lights?

Years from now, we may remember this past Monday night as the night it all came unglued for the San Diego Chargers. Eventhough I forecasted an epic downfall for the Bolts this season and picked Kansas City for their eventual upset at Arrowhead, it never became more evident that things were on a downward spiral for the Chargers until we saw QB Phillip Rivers throw tantrum after tantrum on the field shouting at his teammates on that rainy night in Kansas City.

You see, in the NFL, long-term success is based on the ability to minimize big mistakes. That's why teams that don't draft or sign free agents well over a significant amount of time tend to fail(Oakland, Denver, Cleveland and, until recently, Detroit) while others reap the benefits of their wise decisions(Green Bay, Philly, Indy, and until recently, New England). The Patriots have been on both sides of this spectrum. In the early part of this millennium, they established a dynasty by hitting home runs on a few draft picks(Tom Brady, Richard Seymour, Logan Mankins, Asante Samuel, etc.) and making some savvy pick-ups(Roosevelt Colvin, Corey Dillon, Wes Welker, the first Randy Moss year). Over the course of the last few years, the Pats, either through arrogance or bad luck, haven't had the same fortune. After years of winning with journeymen running backs, the Pats swung and missed on first-rounder Laurence Maroney(who was dealt yesterday to Denver for a 4th round pick). They are starting to see the downside to bringing in a notorious malcontent like Moss. They wiffed on the Adalius Thomas signing, and a few of their risky draft picks have yet to pan out(Brandon Meriweather, Brandon Tate, to name a couple). Good coaching and the consistency of guys like Brady and Welker have kept New England from being where San Diego currently is now.

Don't get me wrong. The Chargers have been successful over the last few years, including division titles the last four years and playoff berths in five of the last six seasons. However, their success hasn't translated into championships and, while winning can erase most problems, if the wheels are indeed falling off on the Chargers wagon, it will because of a couple key critical mistakes that are now coming back to haunt them.

Mistake #1: In 2004, the Chargers decided to pull the plug on their experiment with an undersized QB from Purdue named Drew Brees as their franchise QB after a couple unproductive seasons. Sitting first in the Draft after a 4-12 season, the Chargers pulled the trigger on Ole Miss QB Eli Manning. After Manning played the diva card and demanded a trade out of San Diego on Draft Day, San Diego swung a deal that netted them North Carolina State gunslinger Phillip Rivers.

The Result: Brees used Rivers' presence as the final spark to light the fire under his ass. After throwing 28 touchdowns(to 31 INTs) in his first two full seasons as starter, Brees threw 27 TDs to just 7 picks while going 11-4 in 15 starts. The next season, Brees threw for 24 TDs in his contract year, but wrecked his shoulder on what would be his final snap as a Charger. Brees would go on to sign with New Orleans, becomes the Saints' savior and win a Super Bowl. Rivers, meanwhile, wasn't too shabby himself as Brees' replacement. He's led the Chargers to playoffs every year since taking over, went to the Pro Bowl in '06 and '09, and has established himself as one of the best QBs in the game. Still, of the 2004 Big Three QB's(Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Rivers), he remains the only one without a ring and, for all of Rivers' good, there have been times where Rivers' frat boy cockiness and immaturity rear its ugly head(such as this past Monday night and his pissing match with Jay Cutler a couple years ago).

Mistake #2: Despite a 14-2 season and coming thisclose to a Super Bowl berth, tensions between head coach Marty Schottenheimer and GM A.J. Smith lead to Schottie's upheaval. San Diego opts for Norv Turner, a man with a reputation for being solid as a coordinator but has flopped nearly everywhere he's been the head coach.

The Result: The Chargers haven't exactly missed a beat under Turner. The offense is still prolific and the team still manages to make frequent trips to the postseason. Still, in crunch time situations, Turner's lack of ability as a leader tends to show and he has to accept a brunt of the blame for this team underachieving in January(most notably, last season, when they were shut down by the wild card Jets). Meanwhile, Schottenheimer's name comes up every once in a while as a head coaching candidate(he was linked to Cleveland last year before the Browns decided to stick with Eric Mangini). The fact that Schottenheimer hasn't been picked up anywhere outside of as a consultant for the Jets kind of takes some of the pressure off of Turner and his struggles, but if the Chargers fail and Marty can find work elsewhere, we will forever wonder what could have been if cooler heads prevailed.

Mistake # 3: Coming off his two worst seasons as a pro, the Chargers finally decide to sever ties with future Hall of Fame RB LaDainian Tomlinson and move up in this year's Draft to select Ryan Mathews out of Fresno State as his heir apparent.

The Result: The jury is still out on whether swapping LT for Mathews was smart. History has shown us that its better to cut your losses early with running backs(especially ones with the milage L.T. had prior to his release) nearing or at the age of 30(L.T. was technically 31 when he was cut). Through one game this season, Mathews has outrushed Tomlinson 75 to 63 but it should be mentioned that Mathews was putting in work against a still young Chiefs defense and L.T. was splitting carries with Shonn Greene against one of the best run defenses in football in Baltimore. Perhaps this isn't a "mistake", per se, but you wonder if the smarter play was to let L.T., however much of a cadaver he was in his past two seasons(and even as bad as they were, he still rushed for nearly 1,1oo yards with 11 TDs two years ago and had a team-high 12 TDs last year), finish things out as a Bolt and split time with Mathews before the youngster eventually took over(kind of like how Seattle did with Ricky Waters and Shaun Alexander) rather than push L.T. off the wagon and go with a Mathews/Darren Sproles tag team.

Mistake # 4: Despite the lack of a salary cap, GM A.J. Smith does not feel compelled to throw big dollars at WR Vincent Jackson, coming off a career year that saw him go to the Pro Bowl, or two-time Pro Bowl left tackle Marcus McNeil. Instead, the team tries to make due with guys like Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Naanee at wideout and cross their fingers that Brandon Dombrowski can protect Rivers' blind side after the Tra Thomas signing blows up in their face.

The Result: This, to me, will be the nail in the coffin if these contract situations continue to go unresolved. We knew Jackson was going to miss the first three games of the season thanks to a suspension for a DUI. We knew Jackson would then take a hard stance and refuse to play the rest of the season. We do not know why the Chargers, given a WR market that saw guys like Anquan Boldin and Brandon Marshall get dealt out of their respective towns, would refuse to move Jackson when there was still interest. The Seahawks and Rams inquired about trading for Jackson but were either turned off by SD's demands or never got the indication that Smith was serious about making a deal.

As for McNeil, Rivers hasn't taken enough punishment yet to really chastise the decision to be thrifty with such an elite pass-protector, and the Chargers don't play anyone with a decent enough pass rush to exploit McNeil's absence for quite some time. Still, Rivers never looked comfortable in the pocket against a meek Chiefs pass rush and when you combine a lack of protection with the absence of his favorite receiver, you start to get an understanding to why Rivers was a bit peeved at his boys on Monday night. At this point, I don't think Jackson's ever lacing them up for San Diego again. McNeil may come back if Rivers starts to feel a bit more pressure than he's used to and starts directing his anger at the suits to get his Pro Bowl left tackle back. Still, the fact that Smith showed a blatant disregard for what has been the team's bread and butter, the passing game, combined with an embarrassing loss to a Chiefs team that were nearly seven point underdogs at home may mean Smith will be joining Jackson on that plane ride out of California.

Depending on how this season goes and the fortunes of guys like Tomlinson and Jackson turn out to be, the Chargers may become one of the great "What Ifs" of this generation. In 2005, the Chargers had the league's best back in Tomlinson, a man who would become a prolific passer in Brees and had just drafted Vincent Jackson on top of already discovering a former basketball player turned Pro Bowl tight end in Antonio Gates. You can't help but wonder what would happen if the powers-that-be didn't break that up. Would a Brees/LT/Jackson/Gates foursome have faired better, with Schottenheimer at the helm, than Norv's Rivers/LT/Jackson/Gates quattro? The world will never know. However, if the Chargers continue to perform like the team that got outplayed on Monday night, it will be a question that will continue to be asked for years to come.....especially to Smith on his way to the unemployment line.

NFL Picks Week 1

Another NFL season, another season of us making bone-headed picks. As you all can remember, Gabe came on strong in the second half of last season and took the season series from Dave.

So let's get right to 2010.

Thursday night's opener was a push so we are both currently sporting matching 0-0-1 records.

Here is how we see the rest of week one:

All lines courtesy of Danny Sheridan at USA Today....

Carolina (+6) at N.Y Giants

Gabe: Giants - Homer pick aside...I like the improvements the Giants have made to their defensive backfield. I think if their receivers gel with the rest of the offense they could be dangerous with the ball. I think the New York defense will shut down the Carolina passing game and make the Panthers one-dimensional. Now that dimension, their running game, is a damn good one, but I think the Giants hold them off and win by a touchdown, and just barely cover.

Dave: Panthers - If you read my NFC East preview, you know I'm high on this vaunted Giants pass rush and, believe me, it will be devastating........against teams that pass the ball a lot. The Panthers are not one of those teams. Keep in mind the last time these two teams met, Week 16 of last year in the Meadowlands, the Giants got served up a fresh plate of ass-whooping by Carolina to the tune of 41-9. Who was the starting QB for Carolina then? Matt Moore. Who's the starting QB this Sunday for the Panthers? Yup. Matt Moore. I think the Giants will be solid this year, but I want to see them stop the run against a team that makes no bones about its intentions of jamming the ball down their opponents' throats. Panthers are sneaky, and I like them here for the upset.

Miami (-3) at Buffalo

Gabe: Miami - Buffalo's defensive secondary are masters and the rest of the team are mere apprentices. Miami is a team of journeyman. I think the Bills' youth will show and they will make mistakes. Mistakes that will turn into points. I think Miami wins by 10

Dave: Miami - As much faith as former Miami pit boss Bill Parcells allegedly has lost in former prized pupil Chad Henne, I can't in good conscience pick the Bills here. Buffalo is dreadful. Their offensive line sucks. The coaching sucks. Their QBs suck. Their defense is years away from being average. The fact that they are only getting three at home when the weather won't be enough of a factor to keep this from being a blowout is laughable. Get reintroduced to the Wildcat and Ronnie Brown and Bills fans should start getting those Jake Locker jerseys stitched up.

Atlanta (-1.5) at Pittsburgh

Gabe: Atlanta - Pittsburgh is without starting douchebag Ben Roethlisberger for four games and are going to start Dennis Dixon on Sunday. I think they are going to miss Roethlisberger. Dixon was not great in pre-season and I think he'll struggle against the Falcons defense. The Falcons will be able to tee off on Rashard Mendenhall because of that. I think the Falcons offense will do just enough. Atlanta wins by 4.

Dave: Pittsburgh - Yes, Big Ben is out, but keep in mind that Dennis Dixon, in his lone start, gave a very good Ravens team all it could handle. The Falcons aren't the Ravens defensively. Polamalu's back for Pittsburgh and I think Mike Tomlin is going to dial up a steady dose of Rashard Mendenhall here in a battle of two power run games. I like the Steelers by a touchdown at home.

Detroit (+6.5) at Chicago

Gabe: Detroit - I really can't believe Chicago is favored in this game. Jay Cutler is decent, but his receivers are garbage. The Lions are on the rise, on offense and defense. Their offense is going to score some points and I think they'll get the outright win in my....wait for it......Upset Special!!!!

Dave: Detroit - Quick research advice for you. YouTube what Lions rookie DT Ndomukong Suh did to Browns QB Jake Delhomme. Then, look up how many sacks this Bears' offensive line gave up last year. Detroit is going to come at Jay Cutler heavy and we know Cutler can't throw with accuracy when the rush is in his face. I think we see The Motown Trio provide some highlights, followed by a little coming-out party for Mr. Suh. Meanwhile, ESPN gets Lovie Smith's seat warm for when he gets shit-canned by December. Lions by 6.

Cincinnati (+4.5) at New England

Gabe: New England - The Patriots run is almost over. I think this year will be the last that they are a threat. That being said, I think it will take until about the third quarter before of the two Bengals divas (T.O. and Ochocinco) is sulking because he isn't getting the ball enough. These guys are going to cause this team to implode this year. New England wins by a touchdown.

Dave: Cincinnati - The Bengals spent the offseason revamping its passing game, and this is the perfect defense to try it out against. After cutting Derrick Burgess, there isn't a man on this Pats' front seven that gives a QB chills. The secondary is young and, while The T.Ocho Show may have lost a step, they are cagey enough to make plays against these guys(especially if Palmer gets time to throw). New England's offense scares me a little, too. Brady's coming off a car crash, Moss is already sulking, Welker's knee isn't 100% and the Pats haven't had a RB worth a damn since Curtis Martin. Bengals win ugly on the road.

Cleveland (+3) at Tampa Bay

Gabe: Tampa Bay - The Bucs are young. Cleveland is a mess. I wouldn't watch this game if they were playing in my backyard. It is going to be ugly. That being said, I think Tampa is a little better and are playing with something to prove this year. Bucs by 4.

Dave: Cleveland - Bill Simmons made a decent point in his Week 1 podcast. If Jake Delhomme was ever going to have a game where he would doop Browns fans into thinking he's making a comeback, wouldn't it be against these Tampa Bay Bucs? Freeman's beat up for Tampa, so is Cadillac(as always) and the Bucs D is still a bit green. The Browns, meanwhile, are going to be better on D than you expect. Joe Haden's a promising young corner and Sheldon Brown is a solid vet and I say they each pick off Freeman(or whoever starts behind center for Tampa) at least once. Browns win in a game nobody cares about.

Denver (+3) at Jacksonville

Gabe: Jacksonville - Denver is going to be terrible this year. Jacksonville is not that good, but they have Mojo. Not mojo, but Mojo, Maurice Jones-Drew. I think he'll get nice at home and Jacksonville wins by 6.

Dave: Jacksonville - Tough call here. The Jags are dreadful enough on defense for this to be a blowout, but Denver doesn't have the firepower on offense to exploit this swiss-cheese Jacksonville D. The presence of Maurice Jones-Drew gives Jax the edge, but both teams will find wins to be a premium going forward.

Indianapolis (-2) at Houston

Gabe: Indianapolis - For two years now I have been waiting for Houston to make that next step and finally beat the Colts. They keep teasing but just can't seem to get there. Now they are without CB Dunta Robinson (moved on to Atlanta) and will be without LB Brian Cushing (suspension), and they are going to have to rely on Arian Foster to tote the rock. In years past I would've called for the upset, but not this year. Colts by 9.

Dave: Indianapolis - Peyton Manning doesn't lose to Houston. It just doesn't happen. Gabe mentioned Cushing being out and that's huge, especially with Super Mario Williams banged up, which limits Houston's pass rush. Colts' secondary is weak enough that this will turn into a shootout, but Dwight Freeney being semi-healthy for Indy gives the Colts an edge on D and, with just a two-point spread, I can see the Colts taking this one by a field goal.

Oakland (+6) at Tennessee

Gabe: Tennessee - I think Oakland is going to do some good things on defense this year but their offense is going to be a train wreck. The Titans have all-world running back Chris Johnson, one of the few players in the league who can single-handedly make a defense look stupid. The Raiders will have no answer for Johnson and the Titans will win by double digits.

Dave: Oakland - Oakland's defense is going to be better than you think. Yes, the offense is going to suck, but it will be better than last year. McFadden's healthy for the Raiders and the Titans D is going to be softer on the run with Keith Bulluck no longer manning the middle of that linebacking core. Plus, the Titans' offense isn't much beyond Chris Johnson so Oakland's going to stack the box and make Vince Young beat them(which will be tough to do with Nnamdi Asomugha covering the only Titans receiver that matters, Kenny Britt). Titans may eek this one out, but I can't co-sign a team that lost its first 8 games giving six points against a drastically-improved Raiders team.

Green Bay (-3) at Philadelphia

Gabe: Green Bay - I hear that Philadelphia's young offense is coming together and developing chemistry. Isn't that cute. Green Bay is good, really good. Kevin Kolb may have looked good in the two regular season games in which he's played, but he ain't Aaron Rodgers. The Packers go off and win by 10.

Dave: Green Bay - Going to test my jinx early by taking my boys here and hoping it doesn't back fire. Good litmus test game for Green Bay. Eagles are talented enough on offense to make this dubious Packers D work and Philly has enough pass-rush to make the Packers' offensive line show us what their made of. At the end of the day, Aaron Rodgers is a beast and the Packers are too talented and experienced on O not to take this one. Packers by 13.

San Francisco (-3) at Seattle

Gabe: San Francisco - I think this is easy. Seattle is going to be terrible. San Francisco is going to surprise people, especially on offense. Frank Gore and the Niners roll.

Dave: San Francisco - Niners are going to better than you think, especially on defense. Seahawks are going to be terrible, especially protecting the QB(at least with rookie OT Russell Okung out). What does that mean when you put the two together? A bad debut for Pete Carroll and the biggest blow to hit Seattle since Steven hit Irene on "The Real World".

Arizona (-3.5) at St. Louis

Gabe: Arizona - St. Louis is going to get better as the season goes on, but they will have growing pains first. I actually like Derek Anderson leading the Cardinals. I think he will be better for them than Matt Leinart. Beanie Wells is hurt, but Tim Hightower will carry the ball well and the Cardinal offense will make some noise. Arizona by 7.

Dave: St. Louis - I can't express how down I am on the Cardinals this year, and that was before I knew Beanie Wells was going to sit this one out with a knee injury. Derek Anderson is better than people think, but he's still barely average. Yes, the Rams probably don't have enough of a pass rush to make D.A. sweat in the pocket....but we don't KNOW that yet. If anyone can conjure up a pass rush, wouldn't it be Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo? Plus, Hightower has a tendency to leave the ball on the turf and this Cards defense is going to get chewed alive, post-Karlos Dansby, by Steven Jackson and a much-improved Rams O-Line(get introduced to Roger Saffold, rookie left tackle for Nellyville). Sam Bradford puts on a decent debut. Rams pull off the upset.

Dallas (-3.5) at Washington

Gabe: Dallas - The Cowboys' offensive line concerns me. On paper they should win this game easily. I think McNabb won't be as good as he was in Philly, most because his weapons in Washington aren't that good. I think the Cowboys have too much talent on both sides of the ball. It is an NFC East rivalry game, so anything could happen, but I'll say the 'Boys win by 6.

Dave: Dallas - Like Gabe, the Cowboys' offensive line concerns me, especially with Marc Colombo out. Still, the Cowboys ALWAYS seem to have Washington's number, eventhough McNabb is looking for vengeance after the way the Cowboys finished his final season in Philly. Redskins prove to be feistier than expected, but this defense is still too hodge-podge to pose enough of a threat to this shaky Cowboys O-Line. 'Boys by 10.

And the Monday Night doubleheader.....

Baltimore (+2) at N.Y Jets

Gabe: Baltimore - I'm like Ray Lewis...I don't believe in the Jets either. They are everybody's off-season darlings because they made their Cinderella run last year and they were on Hard Knocks and their coach is a loud mouth and their quarterback is cute (my wife's words, not mine.) Truth is, they were gifted a playoff berth last year. Mark Sanchez is going to take steps back this year because the running game won't be as good. I'm sorry, you can't expect Shonn Greene to pick up all of the slack left by Thomas Jones. The Ravens defense is still outstanding and now, with the addition of Anquan Boldin, T.J. Houshmanzedah, and Donte Stallworth, all at wide receiver, their offense is going to be something to be reckoned with. I think the Ravens will come out and hit the Jets in the mouth, knock them out of rhythm, and win the game outright.

Dave: Baltimore - The Jets are going to be a very good team down the stretch, but it's asking a lot to have star corner Darrelle Revis just waltz in after missing all summer with a contract holdout and go back to shutting down the opponent's best receiver. Plus, there's still some question marks for the Jets on offense. Can Mark Sanchez muster up enough of an air attack minus Santonio Holmes(a proven Raven killer)? Is Shonn Greene the real deal? How much does L.T. have left in him? The Ravens aren't the type of team that you can risk not knowing the answers to these questions immediately. Ravens get the W here in a homecoming for MY BOY Ray Rice.

San Diego (-4.5) at Kansas City

Gabe: San Diego - San Diego's offense is still going to be great. The Kansas City defense has gotten better but I don't think it will be enough. Phillip Rivers is going to get nice, and the Chargers win by at least a touchdown.

Dave: Kansas City - Remember last year when San Diego escaped Oakland in the Monday Night opener by the skin of their teeth? That was WITH Pro Bowl LT Marcus McNeil, Pro Bowl RB LaDainian Tomlinson and Pro Bowl WR Vincent Jackson. None of those guys will be joining us for dinner at Arrowhead. Do I think K.C. can pull off the win here? Not really. The D has too many questions to keep Rivers in check for too long. Can they keep it close? Absolutely. San Diego's D is average, at best, and the Chiefs have enough on offense to keep things close. Chargers win on a Kaeding field goal. Chiefs cover the spread.

Let The Games Begin

It's here! It's finally here! The 2010 NFL season is just hours away, and you know what that means: The return of Gabe and I's annual football pick-off. Last year, I jumped out to a big lead through the first half of the season and then choked down the stretch like a first time throater.

This year, the road to retribution starts with tonight's Vikings-Saints clash. Personally, I hate having the season start with one game on a Thursday and then having everyone else play on Sunday and Monday. I'd rather have everyone play on the opening weekend, take the night off from work and just sit back and watch football all day. Be that as it may, here's our take on the NFC Championship rematch.(Lines courtesy of USA Today's Danny Sheridan)

Vikings(+5) at Saints

Dave: Vikings - The last time these two met, it ended with a field goal in OT after another classic Brett Favre playoff brain fart. This year, a few changes. Sidney Rice, the Vikings' best receiver is out. Darren Sharper, the Saints' playmaking safety is out. Even MLB Jon Vilma is iffy for New Orleans. Favre himself is coming off ankle surgery and hasn't looked the greatest in preseason. Turnovers killed Minnesota in a game they should have won a few months ago. I think they get a bit more conservative but Favre still tests Sharper's replacement, Malcolm Jenkins, deep a few times. As much as it pains me, I'll take Minny by a touchdown.

Gabe: Saints - These aren't last years Vikings. Favre is gimpy, whether he'll admit it or not. They have taken too many hits in their receiving corps. The Saints will still be on a roll. Most of the key people from last year's team are still in place, the most important being....wait for it....Drew Breeeeeees! Also, in these season opening games featuring the previous year's Super Bowl winner, the champs have won like six in a row. I don't see the Saints bucking that trend. Give me the Saints by 10.

NFC West Preview

Last, and certainly least, the weakest division in football.....the NFC West

DAVE:

1. San Francisco 49ers: Coming into these previews, I had a handful of curveballs I was going to throw to keep from sounding like we were just going with the majority decision on these predictions. I picked Kansas City to win the AFC West. I laughed at all of Dallas' Super Bowl buzz. I co-signed the Lions as a potential breakout candidate and now I'm picking the 49ers to win the division. Suddenly though, as time has passed, these predictions don't seem as far-fetched and, more and more, people are (to use a Gabe phrase) pickin' up what I'm puttin' down. (Side note: Before you accuse me of claiming that the experts are stealing from me, that's not what I'm saying. It's just that what seemed like risky picks in July aren't as ledge-toeing in September).

Anyway, the self destruction of the Rams, Cardinals and Seahawks over the last half decade has opened the door for the Niners to emerge as the cream of the crop. Wisely, San Fran used the draft to build up its offensive line, snagging two road graders in RT Anthony Davis and G Mike Iupati in the first round. If those two pan out, expect a huge season for RB Frank Gore. Gore was good for 1,120 yards and 10 TDs(as well as another 400 yards and 4 TDs receiving) even without the improvements up front last year, and with concussion-case Brian Westbrook behind him and Glen Coffee now retired, it's going to be his show this season. The improvements on the line also help former #1 overall pick Alex Smith. Smith played admirably in his comeback season, after many left him for dead thanks to shoulder issues and mediocre production, and now comes into this season with a little more time to throw(in theory) to last year's breakout star, TE Vernon Davis(965 yards, 13 TDs). Smith also gets a full season of last year's holdout diva Michael Crabtree. Crabtree stepped in after a long time sitting on his couch and emerged as the team's best receiver almost instantaneously. With an actual offseason of learning the playbook and Davis garnering more attention, Crabtree could be even better in his sophomore season. Opposite Crabtree will be a couple of speedsters: Josh Morgan and former Dolphin bust Ted Ginn Jr. Ginn Jr is the most intriguing to watch because, with Crabtree as the unquestioned top dog, it allows Ginn to slide into a more complimentary role as a 2nd or 3rd receiver, which is what fits him more. Morgan could be a breakout star as he'll no doubt see a ton of single coverage and there aren't many #2 corners would can keep up with his speed.

Defensively, San Francisco is scary. They have the best middle linebacker in football in Pat Willis, a very reliable vet in former Bengals Pro Bowler Takeo Spikes, and a decent pass rusher off the edge in Manny Lawson.....and that's just the linebacking crew. In the secondary, the Niners are led by vastly underrated free safety DaShon Goldson, who was all over the field last season(94 tackles, 3 forced fumbles, 2 sacks, 4 INTs). Goldson will soon be joined in the starting lineup by former USC athletic freak Taylor Mays. Mays sits behind incumbent Michael Lewis at strong safety, but it is only a matter of time before head coach Mike Singletary is wowed by Mays' amazing skill set. On the corners, Nate Clements has failed to live up to his huge contract and has been a threat to be cut or traded the past two seasons. Clements can still be a playmaker if Singletary can light the fire under him that Mike did under Vernon Davis. Opposite Clements is Shawntae Spencer, who is an adequate cover guy but may be the weak link on this defense.

The Niners can be a very real threat in the NFC this year. Keep in mind that all three of the other teams in this division have represented the NFC in the Super Bowl in the last decade and the Niners have a lot of potential on O and are just plain scary on defense. On top of that, they are led by Mike Singletary, who is slowly but surely emerging as one of the game's best coaching leaders. With the division in shambles, the Niners should walk through the West. When the playoffs start, we'll see if San Francisco can be the fourth and final team to play on Super Sunday.

2. Seattle Seahawks: Really, you had to pick somebody to finish second here. The Seahawks were a more interesting team a week ago, with former Lions 1st rounder and Pete Carroll pupil Mike Williams starting to shake off the bust tag and veteran wide receiver T.J. Houshmanzadeh back as a reliable target for QB Matt Hasselbeck. Now, Housh is gone and Williams is the starter, and uncertainty is abound. For one, Williams hasn't made a meaningful play in the NFL since he was drafted in 2005. He's reunited with Carroll and he's been decent, but you can't be too excited about him as your #1. You have to be equally discouraged by former Super Bowl MVP Deion Branch being the starter opposite BMW. Branch is an IR visit waiting to happen and it wouldn't surprise me if Seattle's starting wideouts by November are a pair of former 2nd rounders: Deon Butler and Golden Tate. Butler made a couple of plays as a rookie last season and the same is expected of Tate once he stops robbing donut shops and starts getting serious about football. In the running game, Julius Jones is gone and the show is now being co-hosted by Justin Forsett and Leon Washington. Since preseason last year, I've always liked Forsett and, with JJ out of the picture, I like Forsett even more. After all, his biggest threat to take away touches is a scatback coming off a fractured leg. Washington is this year's feel-good story. He wanted a long-term deal with the Jets, didn't get it, played anyway, suffered a gruesome leg injury, rehabbed and then got traded on Draft Day to Seattle. "Little Leon" has played well in the preseason but, as the team's best return guy, the team may not have him shoulder too much of the rushing load. Since this is a predictions piece, I'm calling 1,600 combined yards for Forsett this season and I think he visits the end zone at least six times. Right it down. Lock it up. Of course, the key to all that will be this porous Seahawks offensive line. The team used one of its first round picks on Oklahoma St left tackle Russell Okung, widely considered the best offensive tackle prospect in the draft. Okung, as has become the standard in Seattle, got hurt and is iffy for the opener. In preparation, the Seahawks acquired Stacy Andrews from the Eagles to man Okung's post. The offensive line will need to come together fast and Okung will have to be a quick healer because Hasselbeck has proven to be made of glass the last two seasons.

On defense, Seattle's excited about first rounder Earl Thomas at free safety, and big things are expected from last year's fourth overall pick Aaron Curry at OLB. Beyond them, there isn't much. MLB Lofa Tatupu is another former Carroll protege, but he's had troubles staying healthy. The same can be said for CB Marcus Trufant, who was a former Pro Bowler just like Tatupu was and then gotten eaten up by the injury bug. Carroll did a great job with maintaining a good defense at USC, but this is the NFL, and Carroll is going to be in for a rude awakening when this unit takes the field.

Seattle is the most promising of the teams not named San Francisco. They didn't lose as much talent as Arizona did and they have more solid players than St. Louis. Still, this is a 6-win team, at best, even with the forecasting of a big year for Forsett. The offensive line is unproven. There isn't a receiver who scares a defense and bad drafting has made Seattle's defense just plain terrible. It's Carroll's job to right the ship in his return to the NFL. He made some solid picks with Okung, Thomas and Tate and we will see if those pan out in Year 1 of the Carroll Comeback.

3. St. Louis Rams: Yup, that's right. The Rams. I'm THAT impressed with Sam Bradford, the overpaid #1 overall pick, so far in the preseason(actually, it has more to do with me thinking Arizona is going first-to-worst this year. More on that later). Obviously, the key is keeping Bradford upright and healthy, and that's something former 2nd overall pick OT Jason Smith is going to have to lead the charge on(as well as rookie OT Roger Saffold). Bradford has exceptional accuracy and his arm, while diminished a little from shoulder surgery, is still very good. Could he be a Big Ben/Joe Flacco/Matt Ryan-type impact rookie at QB? Maybe. He'll be helped out by Steven Jackson at RB. Jackson isn't just a tough, punishing runner, he's also a solid pass-catcher out of the backfield and that will work as a safety valve for Bradford if things get hairy. Oh, and things WILL get hairy. The Rams lost top wideout Donnie Avery for the season with a torn ACL and then brought in former Ravens top pick Mark Clayton as a potential replacement. Clayton is better than some have given him credit for. Is he a Pro Bowl calibur #1? Of course not. Could he have a resurgence with Bradford at QB? Absolutely. Outside of Bradford, Jackson and Clayton, there isn't much to get excited over.

Defensively, the team is a work in progress. Former high draft pick Chris Long still hasn't emerged like St. Louis would have liked, even under the tutlege of a defensive maestro like head coach Steve Spagnuolo. Fellow DE James Hall hasn't mattered in a while and he's the 2nd best guy on this defensive line. The linebacking crew is a bit more promising. MLB James Laurinaitis, son of former "Legion of Doom" member Animal(only the greatest tag team EVER), is the star of this defense. He racks up tackles in bunches and makes plays all over the field. Problem is, he's the only guy on this defense with that kind of resume. Free safety O.J. Atogwe is an above average safety and maybe even a potential Pro Bowler, but his skills are negated by the lack of talent in the rest of the secondary. Ronald Bartell? Kevin Dockery? No, thanks.

The Rams are a mediocre team in a mediocre division, but the presence of Bradford(if he stays healthy) gives them promise. Spagnuolo still has to put his mark on this defense and that starts with getting something out of Long. Obviously, this team is years away from contending but, by comparison to teams like the Cardinals, they are at least on the right track.

4. Arizona Cardinals: This was going to be a rough season for Arizona even BEFORE they cut the cord on "QB of the future" and former 10th overall pick Matt Leinart. Ken Whisenhunt is a good head coach and he came a Santonio Holmes circus catch away from winning the Super Bowl two years ago, but he's not a miracle worker. Yes, new QB Derek Anderson was once a Pro Bowler, but that was so long ago it might as well have never happened. Anderson has the benefit of having an elite receiver in Larry Fitzgerald and a solid running game led by Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower, but at the end of the day, he's Derek Anderson. He's the same guy who struggled in Cleveland after his Pro Bowl breakout season and he's the same guy the Browns cut loose in exchange for Jake Delhomme. He's not Kurt Warner. He's not even Kent Graham.

On defense, the Cardinals lost ALOT of good players. LB Karlos Dansby, the guy who saved their season last year with his fumble return for a TD against Green Bay in the Wild Card round, left for Miami. S Antrel Rolle is now a New York Giant....and those were two of the best players on a defense that still gave up nearly 100 points in its last two games. Arizona did bring in former Steeler Joey Porter and former Jet Kerry Rhodes to replace both men, but Porter and Rhodes aren't nearly as good as Dansby and Rolle. The Cards do still have DT Darnell Dockett, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and S Adrian Wilson, but unless the two new additions produce, that's about all they have.

So, what looked like a bad season got progressively worse the minute Leinart proved to be every bit of the bust he was when Warner took his job a few years ago. We don't know what Derek Anderson is going to show up and, with Anquan Boldin gone, the benefit of having Fitz at wideout is a bit diminished. The running game needs to carry this team and the addition of Alan Faneca at guard will help that aspect, but this team is still in for a world of hurt, especially if this defense continues to play the way it did at the end of last year.

Gabe:

Statement: This will be the worst division in the NFL.

1. San Francisco 49ers - The 49ers drafted two offensive lineman this year. If their line can gel then Frank Gore is going to have a huge year. Back-up running back Glenn Coffee quit the team unexpectedly, but the Niners have replaced him with the still dangerous Brian Westbrook. I think tight end Vernon Davis and the rest of the receivers will make some strides and that quarterback Alex Smith will finally have a good year. I actually drafted Smith as a back-up in one of my fantasy leagues this year.

Dave went into the names on defense. I love their defense also. I think the X-factor is head coach Mike Singletary. He knows how to win. He knows what it takes to be an elite defense. They have the talent and they have the leadership. I think this defense will do big things.

And now for something bold.....

2. Arizona Cardinals - They are now in the hands of quarterback Derek Anderson, and I think they are very capable hands. Anquan Boldin is gone but they still have all-world wideout Larry Fitzgerald. I think Steve Breaston is a good no. 2 receiver that will take enough attention away from Fitzgerald for Fitz to continue his elite play. I really like the combo of Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower (CAA represent!) in the backfield.

Dave is right about the defense. They have lost a lot of players. But they did bring in a few, like Joey Porter, and they still have a few, like Adrian Wilson. I'm not saying they are going to be good, but they are going to be better than the rest of this crap division.

3. St. Louis Rams - No, really. I know receiver Donnie Avery is on the shelf. Sam Bradford seems like he might be the real deal at quarterback. Provided he doesn't hurt his shoulder again, he'll be decent. Stephen Jackson is a monster at running back. He is also the Rams' top receiving threat. If he stays healthy, and that is a huge "if," he is an amazing player with tons of talent.

The defense is young, but talented. I think they need to be coached up and if there is one man who can do that it's Steve Spagnuolo. Of course, I might be a little biased about Spagnuolo's coaching ability. (For those scoring at home, Spagnuolo was the Giants' defensive coordinator they year they won the Super Bowl.) The point is, this division stinks and the Rams have tons of upside, way more than Seattle. I don't see why the Rams couldn't make some noise in the West.

4. Seattle Seahawks - They have no Who's-Your-Mama at receiver anymore. They are losing running backs like Dave is losing hair. Matt Hasselbeck is old. I hate the Seahawks for the way they beat the Giants in 2005. They suck. Boom. Roasted.

(They were last team I had to preview and I hate them. So sue me for the lack of words.)

NFC South Preview

Our look at the NFC South.....

DAVE:

1. New Orleans Saints: I know the NFC South hasn't had a repeat division winner in quite some time. I know that the team that has finished last has ended up winning the division the next year the last few years. I know this. That being said, these are the defending Super Bowl champs. They are led by the best QB in the game and perhaps even the league's best coach. Also, there's really nobody else in this division that even garners enough sleeper buzz to make me waver here(You can keep your Falcons as a dark horse hype. I'll pass). Drew Brees, year after year, continues to orchestrate this offense like a maestro. No matter how meak the running game. No matter how unknown the receivers. Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Lance Moore aren't sexy names like Baltimore's new trio or the guys out in Dallas, but they fit the scheme well and they have great chemistry with Brees and that's all that matters. As for the running game, Pierre Thomas is adequate in a Antione Smith/Charlie Garner/Michael Pittman kind of way. He isn't a gamebreaker but he can move the chains if you underestimate him. Reggie Bush, meanwhile, is SUPPOSED to be a gamebreaker. He showed flashes in the playoffs, but the Saints can't claim that this is what they expected from the man heralded as "The Next Gale Sayers". This has to be the year Bush drops jaws like he did during his career at USC. Last year's Super Bowl win was nice, but if Bush proves to be dangerous, he adds an element to this offense that makes them even more powerful.

The defense should be better in Year 2 under Gregg Williams. There aren't many big time stars in this front seven, but that's not going to stop Williams from unleashing blitz after blitz. DT Sedrick Ellis has been banged up quite a bit in his short career but he can be a force inside when he's healthy. The same can be said for former Bear DE Alex Brown and fellow DE Will Smith. Both are solid pass-rushers who have to avoid the injury bug. LB Jon Vilma is a tackling machine and this new scheme allows him to fly all over the field like a heat-seeking missle. The secondary is still a question mark, even with the breakout postseason by CB Tracy Porter. Porter proved to be a playmaker in the Super Bowl and NFC Championship, but we've seen guys have big moments in the postseason and then fall flat on their face. Remember Larry Brown? Remember Dwight Smith? Porter's a solid corner. He's not Darrelle Revis. Free safety Darren Sharper IS a big-time playmaker, but he's also injured and it looks like he'll miss at least the first six games with a knee injury. Last year's first rounder Malcolm Jenkins got roasted in his rookie season and he's going to have to make HUGE strides to keep this pass defense from getting exposed(especially in the season opener against Brett Favre and the Vikings).

Long story short, the Saints are still the class of this division. It will be interesting to see if Brees avoids the Madden Curse, but this team should still be a threat to win 10-11 games. However, Jenkins and Bush are the X-factors for this team. Jenkins holds the key to the secondary in Sharper's absence. The Saints stayed afloat last year because of Sharper's instincts and experience. That's missing for the immediate future. As for Bush, he's not the lead back but he's the guy defenses will key on. He'll have to prove to be more than a dangerous punt returner in the final year of his rookie contract. The production of those two and the health of Brees are the keys to New Orleans' chances of repeating. They can survive the division if the defense remains adequate and Brees continues to flourish, but they are going to need more lucky bounces(like last year) to make a run back to the Super Bowl. Personally, I think they'll settle on taking the division.

2. Atlanta Falcons: For some reason, be it experts trying to be edgy by rallying around a team nobody else is checking for or what have you, there's a lot of buzz surrounding these Atlanta Falcons. Don't get me wrong. The Falcons are promising. Matt Ryan is proving to be a better QB than I initially gave him credit for, Roddy White has become an elite receiver and Micheal Turner is a bulldozer when healthy. Still, upon further review, it's hard to get TOO excited about the Dirty Birds. Ryan's been solid in his first two years but he also has the tendency to connect passes to guys in the different colored shirts(25 picks in 2 years....not terrible, but a bit of a concern). Turner rushed for under 1,000 yards last year, mainly as a side effect to his big 2008 and still getting adjusted to being the every-down back after being a caddy in San Diego. White has put up consistent numbers over the last few years, but who is there behind him at wideout? Micheal Jenkins has been hit-or-miss since the Falcons used a first-round pick on him years ago. TE Tony Gonzalez is still a red zone maven and one of the game's best tight ends, but you wonder when Father Time will catch up to him as well.

Defensively, the Falcons may have the most underrated LB trio in the NFL. Curtis Lofton is the best MLB you aren't talking about, OLB Mike Peterson can make plays and there's a lot of hope around first round pick Sean Weatherspoon. On the defensive line, former top 10 pick Jamaal Anderson has to shake the cobwebs off and become a star. He has 2.5 sacks in four years and currently sits behind Kroy Biermann as the starter opposite John Abraham. Abraham is a QB's nightmare, but he's almost never healthy. He has great speed and is very much a poor man's Dwight Freeney.....when he's on the field. Speaking on injuries, former 1st rounder Peria Jerry will make his NFL debut after missing all of last season with a knee injury. Jerry can clog the middle inside but it's still questionable how his knee will hold up and how effective he can be having never actually played a meaningful NFL game. The Falcons secondary got a boost when it signed Dunta Robinson away from Houston. Robinson(much like the rest of the Falcons D) is solid-yet-oft-injured. He can be a shutdown corner but he's prone to knicks and bumps. S Erik Coleman makes plays and his 116 tackles last year proves he can make stops all over the field. He and Robinson will have to because the rest of the Falcons' secondary is a bit suspect.

The Falcons have a lot of potential, on paper, but season after season, we see a lot of sexy picks become more unattractive as warts get discovered. Before I can co-sign Atlanta as a potential elite team, I'd have to see them play like one. That means a bounce back year from Turner, some better decision making from Ryan and an emergence from some of the young guys on this defense. Otherwise, this is just another team causing a frenzy for no reason.

3. Carolina Panthers: Is Matt Moore the real deal? That's the question surrounding the fate of the Panthers' season. To many, Moore is the seat warmer for eventual franchise QB Jimmy Clausen, but Moore's 26, he was 4-1 as a starter and threw six touchdowns to two picks last season. We've seen this before. Teams draft a high-profile kid out of college as their QB of the future before taking a look at the incumbent and the "heir apparent" ends up riding the bench longer than expected(Best example: San Diego with Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers). I'm not saying Moore's a Pro Bowler, but he certainly has the weapons to, at the very least, not suck. It starts with his massive offensive line, and Carolina's two big-time tackles Jordan Gross and Jeff Otah(although Otah is a bit slowed by a knee injury). Those two will be keeping Moore upright long enough for him to launch bombs to one of the game's most dangerous receivers, Steve Smith. Smith had nearly 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns, three of which coming with Moore at the helm. Helping Moore's cause(and Smith's cause, as well) will be the Panthers' own version of "Thunder" and "Lightning" in bruising back Jonathan Stewart and jitterbug DeAngelo Williams. Both backs eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark last year, with Williams scoring seven touchdowns and "The Daily Show" chipping in ten scores. Their production lightens the load on Moore in his first full season as starter. The only real question is who will be lining up opposite Smith? The team drafted Brandon LaFell out of LSU and, right now, he has the edge over former USC bust Dwayne Jarrett. The Panthers also added Armanti Edwards, who is someone to also keep an eye on this season.

The Panthers defense has a bit more uncertainty than their run-oriented O. In case you missed it, Pro Bowl DE Julius Peppers left for greener pastures in Chicago. His spot will be manned now by former Raider Tyler Brayton. Brayton has played well in the preseason, doing a good job of pressuring QBs, but he isn't the playmaker that Peppers was. Inside, the team is still looking for someone to produce on the interior ever since Kris Jenkins left. DTs Ed Johnson and Louis Leonard are subpar at best. Luckily, the Panthers have some good linebackers behind them. "The Beast" Jon Beason is moving from his comfy middle linebacker spot to man the outside and make room for another promising young tackler, Dan Conner. The secondary has a decent pair of corners in Chris Gamble and Richard Marshall. Marshall proved he could lay the lumber last season, racking up 88 tackles, while both men had four interceptions. Safety Charles Godfrey got a lot of buzz in the draft a couple years ago and, now in his third season, he has prove he's the playmaker the Panthers thought he would be.

So, the Panthers may very well be in good hands with Moore behind center. Unlike most young, inexperienced QBs, Moore steps in with a stout offensive line, a reliable running game and a fine playmaker at wideout. The question becomes, with head coach John Fox on the hot seat, will Moore feel Clausen constantly breathing down his neck if things go awry. Defensively, somebody has to step up to replace Peppers and the interior of that defensive line has to hold up and take some pressure off Beason and Conner to constantly make plays. The Panthers have the Super Bowl champs and a sexy sleeper in Atlanta in their division, but if a couple things bounce their way, their potential plus Fox's desperation could translate into a surprisingly good year for Carolina.

4. Tampa Bay Bucs: This is going to be an ugly year for Tampa Bay. Head coach Raheem Morris proved to be in over his head in his first year as coach last season and I'd be surprised if he isn't the first coach canned this season. QB Josh Freeman is promising and definitely has the tools to be good, but he's a year or two away, mainly because his receivers need to develop. The Bucs used draft picks on Syracuse WR Mike Williams and Illinois' Arrellious Benn. Williams has been the story of preseason for Tampa, and surprisingly beat out Benn for a starting spot. Benn, meanwhile, will be waiting behind former Eagle Reggie Brown. Brown flunked as a #1 in Philly, so it's hard to feel confident about his chances of being the man in Tampa Bay. The running game is equally dreadful. RB Cadillac Williams is now the unquestioned starter after the team bid adieu to free agent bust Derrick Ward and after moving former starter Earnest Graham to fullback. However, Williams hasn't been healthy in ages and he may actually beat out Morris as the first Buc on the shelf. Behind Caddy is unknown Kareem Huggins.....who? Yeah, exactly. On the bright side, the team has Kellen Winslow at tight end......and he's a soldier. Just ask him.

Defensively, the Bucs are big on potential and inexperience. Tampa Bay drafted Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy with the 3rd overall pick and then found him a tag team partner in 2nd rounder Brian Price. Price led the Pac-10 in sacks while at UCLA and many believed McCoy was on par if not better than Heisman candidate and 2nd overall pick Ndomukong Suh. Those two will need to produce immediately because there isn't much proven talent on the rest of the line. The DE formerly known as DeWayne White(now Stylez White) has fallen out of favor with the coaching staff but, with nobody even decent enough to replace him, White's spot remains in tact for now. The linebacking core has a couple solid prospects in former Seminole Geno Hayes and tackling machine Barrett Ruud. In the secondary, Ronde Barber returns for his 300th season as Tampa Bay's elder statesman and as the only tolerable Barber brother. He'll be shepherding a young secondary featuring guys like safety Tanard Jackson and corner Myron Lewis.

The Bucs have a ton of young talent but, in order to keep Morris off the unemployment line, they(especially Freeman) are going to have to make big strides in Year 2 of the Raheem Regime. At this point, expecting Cadillac to make it thru even half a season is a stretch and the hope is that Huggins can pick up some of the slack. Benn and Williams will have to emerge or show flashes as rookies since it's clear Brown is nothing more than a stop gap. On defense, McCoy and Price have to live up to their college press clippings and if another corner can step up to eventually replace Ronde, it will put Tampa in a better position going forward. Still, this is a tough division and this is a very young team with a very young coach who made far too many mistakes as the head man last year(firing both coordinators before season's end tops the list of Morris mistakes). So, expect a handful of wins, Morris to be unemployed and a couple of "ooohs" and "aaahs" from the youngsters.....but don't expect much else.

Gabe:

I hate to keep sounding like Dave but here goes....

1. New Orleans Saints - As Dave said, this division hasn't had a repeat winner since Jesus was captain, but that is going to change this year. Last year the Saints won the Super Bowl. This year they have basically the same team. All of their receivers are back and really, Marques Colston is the 1, but after that each guy, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachum, and Lance Moore, is a threat to have a huge game. Any of their receivers can take almost any pass the distance. Their running game has a weak reputation, but they are good. They use the backs in the passing game frequently and when healthy Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush are a good inside/outside combo.

Dave is right about their defense. The front seven aren't flashy, but they are good. They play well as a team and blitz like crazy. Williams is a great DC. The secondary does need to improve, but with another year under Williams' system they should do that. Either way, if they do get exposed and another team puts up some points, is there any team better equipped on offense to respond than the Saints? I'll take New Orleans in a shoot out against anyone.

2. Atlanta Fighting Matty Ices - I like Atlanta's offense, I don't love it. Matt Ryan busted out his rookie year and has made strides since. He has a decent top receiver in Roddy White, a still great tight end in future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez, and a workhorse back in Michael Turner. It is essential that Turner stay healthy for the Falcons to progress. Two years ago he touched the ball about 2,600 times (true statistic....OK, not true), and suffered last year because of it.

The Falcons defense is unheralded. I like their front seven. I think signing Dunta Robinson is going to be huge for them. Robinson was always good, and sometimes great, in Houston. I think he will give this defense a huge lift.

3. Carolina Panthers - The Panthers have a huge running game. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan "The Daily Show" Stewart are both outstanding. Top receiver Steve Smith and quarterback Matt Moore have a great chemistry. The popular sentiment is that Moore is just keeping the seat warm for rookie Jimmy Clausen, but I don't think that's true. I think Moore can play well enough to keep Clausen on the sidelines with a headset on, for at least a year. The defensive line is going to struggle. Julius Peppers will be sorely missed. As Dave said the linebackers and secondary are a decent group. I think they will have too much on their hands trying to handle the Falcons and Saints though.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Here is the story with Tampa Bay. They are young. They have a young coach. They have a young quarterback. They are inexperienced. This year they drafted McCoy and Been who have tons of potential. I think the Bucs are a year or two away from being contenders. Unfortunately Raheem Morris might not have that kind of time.

NFC North Preview

Slowly but surely, we are plowing away at these divisional previews. Here's our look at the NFC North.

Dave:

1. Green Bay Packers: I'm basing this on call on three things: 1. Everything fell in place for the Vikings in Year 1 with Brett Favre at QB and I'm hard-pressed to believe lightning will strike twice for them in Year 2. 2. I also think the Packers' offensive line was the only thing that kept Green Bay from the Super Bowl last year and I just can't see that unit being that bad(league-worst 51 sacks allowed last year) again. 3. I'm a bit of a homer. Sue me.

I've always been one to find preseason meaningless. After all, these same Packers ran through the exhibition season like a tornado last year, not allowing a sack and looking like the second coming of the '99 Rams, and then we saw what happened once the games started to matter. This year, it's pretty much the same deal. The Packers are coming off dropping 59 points on the Super Bowl runner-up Indianapolis Colts in the third game of preseason and the media frenzy around heralding Green Bay as a Super Bowl contender has surged once again.

Now, I told you people a couple years ago that Aaron Rodgers was the real deal(granted, not on THIS site, but still) and now it looks like I am right. Rodgers is a legit Top 5 QB, with the chance to crack the Top 3 with another big year. When you throw over 4,000 yards and 30 TDs(as well as a mere 7 picks) when your offensive line is giving you no help, you are a damn good QB. This year, the Packers' swiss cheese O-Line is expected to be better. Aging tackles Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher are finally healthy(or at least, reasonably healthy) and the surprise story of camp is first round pick Bryan Bulaga, a OT out of Iowa, playing admirably enough at guard to possibly crack the starting lineup. If Rodgers gets protection, he has a bevy of options. There's emerging superstar Greg Jennings as A-Rod's top deep threat, consistent chain-mover Donald Driver opposite Jennings, and a couple of solid youngsters in Jordy Nelson and James Jones as the 3rd and 4th option. Then, there's the guy I'm most excited about in this Packers' air attack: TE Jermichael Finley. If you read my All-Breakout Team piece(and you should, if you haven't), you'll know I think this is the year Finley busts loose. He's tall(6'5), big(260lbs), with good speed and great athleticism. Rodgers has hit him frequently in the preseason and that's not going to change once the season kicks off. When the Packers aren't airing it out, they can hand it off to vastly underrated back Ryan Grant. Since 2007, only one man has more rushing yards than Grant(Adrian Peterson). He's gotten his fumbling issues in check and he's even decent catching passes out of the backfield(although that job will mainly be handled by Brandon Jackson, who is the perfect change-of-pace option for Grant, if he can stay healthy).

The defense is where I'm a bit worried. CB Charles Woodson won the Defensive Player of the Year award last year, but he's 34. The guy who is normally opposite him, Al Harris, is on the PUP list, as is safety Atari Bigby. Tramon Williams filled in admirably a couple years ago for Harris but his place in the starting lineup hurts the overall depth in the secondary. Still, the Packers can pick it with Woodson and Pro Bowl safety Nick Collins in the defensive backfield. As for the front seven, DE Johnny Jolly is gone(facing a one-year suspension) and the team tried to soften the blow by drafting 2nd rounder Mike Neal to rotate inside. The key to the Packers D-Line in Year 2 of Dom Capers' 3-4 will be last year's first round pick B.J. Raji becoming the disruptive force inside many thought he would be on Draft Day. If Raji is up to snuff, a defensive line of Raji, massive NT Ryan Pickett and pass-rushing end Cullen Jenkins looks mighty formidable. As for the linebackers, it's fight or flight time for A.J. Hawk. Hawk has been decent in his time in Green Bay, but not the dominator he was expected to be after being taken in the Top 5 a few years ago. Fellow inside linebacker Nick Barnett is a tackling machine, but has had trouble staying healthy. On the outside, Clay Matthews returns from a breakout rookie season(10 sacks). Matthews has been slowed by a hamstring injury but is expected to be ready for the regular season. Opposite Matthews will be second-year man Brad Jones, who was adequate last year but hardly a lynchpin on the outside. Matthews and Jenkins are responsible for a majority of the pass rush and with the secondary missing two key members(although rookie Morgan Burnett should fill in for Bigsby brilliantly), someone else is going to have to emerge to keep the Packers from getting bombed on.

So, this could be the year for the Packers. The offensive line has to keep their young stud QB upright and the defense has to continue to improve on their excellent performance from last year. The schedule does them no favors and certainly Minnesota won't lie down for them this year, but there is reason for optimism in Title Town. Then again, we said that last year.

2. Minnesota Vikings*: Brett Favre did what many thought was impossible last year. He came into a new team, with new receivers, fresh off of surgery on his legendary cannon arm and had the best season of his career. He made household names out of bargain bin receivers like Sidney Rice and Bernard Berrian. This time, Favre comes late into camp once again with a new ailment: his surgically-repaired ankle. Favre has always been the epitome of toughness since he came into the league, but it just seems far-fetched to have a 40-year old man put on another passing clinic coming off yet another serious injury. Eventually, Father Time catches up with you. The injury to top receiver Sidney Rice doesn't help Favre's cause. Rice could miss up to the first half of the season as he recovers from hip surgery. On top of that, electrifying second-year wideout Percy Harvin(the man who was supposed to benefit the most from Rice's absence) has been slowed by migraines. That opens the door for a couple of cagey vets. There's Bernard Berrian, who was pretty much reduced to a third option(and sometimes fourth option when Favre got TE Visanthe Shiancoe involved). Berrian has speed but has had trouble with a bad case of stone hands at times. The Vikings traded for Dolphins WR Greg Camarillo a week ago. Camarillo wasn't much of a factor with Miami and it will take him time to adjust to the new scheme(not to mention, Favre's lasers), but he could be a Greg Lewis-type fill-in if he pans out. So, Favre is going to have to put on another show with a bum ankle, his top receiver out, his second receiver fragile and his other two merely adequate. The smart call would be the Vikings leaning on all-world back Adrian Peterson for the first half of the season until the receiving core is at full strength, but as we saw last season, Favre is going to take a back seat for long. Eventually, Favre is going to audible out and try to make something out of nothing. That's where this team's downfall will be.

On the plus side, Minnesota has a nasty defense, led by the mullet master Jared Allen and The Williams Wall(Pat and Kevin) on that front line. Rounding out that vaunted Vikings defensive line will be Ray Edwards, who put on quite a show in the playoffs in the hopes of getting paid in the offseason(he didn't). Behind that front four is steady-but-oft-injured MLB E.J. Henderson and two very solid outside linebackers in Chad Greenway and Ben Leber. This front seven is fast, physical and are sure-tacklers. As for the secondary, I'm a bit more skeptical than most. CB Antione Winfield has always been able to overcome being undersized by showing good ball skills and being one of the best tackling corners in the game, but he's 33 and has had his issues with the injury bug in recent years. Opposite him will be former Eagles Pro Bowler Lito Sheppard. Sheppard's filling in for the injured Cedric Griffin, who hurt his knee in the NFC Championship game. Lito is still an adequate corner but he isn't the shutdown kind of a guy he once was. Safeties Madieu Williams and Tyrell Johnson are adequate but they aren't the type of playmakers that the Vikings had when Darren Sharper was patrolling the deep middle a couple years ago.

So, yeah, the Vikings have a lot of pass-rushing talent in that devastating front seven, but any team that gets time to throw will be able to pick apart this secondary. On offense, there's a ton of talent but also a ton of potential for turnovers. Favre's a threat to throw a handful of picks the minute he's feeling lucky and Peterson has had a chronic case of fumblitis since entering the NFL. Last year, everything bounced in Minnesota's favor until Favre killed them at the end. It seems like wishful thinking for that to happen again this year. Favre's older, cagier and a bit more hobbled and now teams won't be foolish enough to underestimate the old man. Minnesota's still a good bet for the playoffs, but a run like last year's? Doubtful.

3. Detroit Lions: This looked like more of a curveball before the preseason, when the Lions showed flashes of being a tough, young team and the Bears showed flashes of being on the clock with the #1 overall pick. Truth be told, I think Detroit and Chicago will combine win less games than Green Bay or Minnesota win individually, but the Lions seem to be more on the right track than their Windy City rivals. For one, their offense is highlighted by the Motor City Triplets(as they are known to me and only me). Matt Stafford made a few rookie mistakes last year, but showed amazing guts in that game against Cleveland(throwing the game winning TD with a busted shoulder, then coming back four days later and taking a beating from Green Bay on Thanksgiving) and there's no denying the kid has a howitzer attached to his shoulder. On the receiving end of that cannon will be Calvin Johnson. "Megatron" hasn't lived up to his press clippings as of yet, mainly because injuries have slowed him, but he's an athletic freak with great speed, solid hops and suction cups for hands. This could be his breakout season. Another young star in the making is the second of Detroit's 1st round picks this year, RB Jahvid Best. Best isn't an every-down type of back, but he's electrifying with the ball in his hands. If he continues to produce with 15-20 touches he'll get a game, the Lions become very interesting to watch going forward. The key is protecting Stafford, who was sacked 24 times in two games and played a couple of those games with a separated shoulder. If Stafford has time to throw, the Lions will step into the 21st century and actually be able to utilize a vertical passing game.

On defense, the lynchpin is 2nd overall pick Ndomukong Suh, the nasty DT from Nebraska. Suh is a disruptive presence on the interior of this Detroit front line and the attention he grabs will open things up for fellow DT Corey Williams(who had back-to-back 7 sack seasons when he last played in a 4-3 scheme in Green Bay) and former Titans DE Kyle Vanden Bosch. Former 49ers Pro Bowler Julian Peterson has lost a step or two but he's still a solid linebacker and will lead a young Lions LB core, including promising MLB DeAndre Levy. In the secondary, safety Louis Delmas made a few plays in his rookie season last year and he's going to have to make a few more to make up for this porous cornerback duo. Chris Houston has great speed but terrible coverage skills and the guy playing opposite him, Jonathan Wade, is a virtual unknown. The lack of playmakers in the secondary means Detroit will keep things just as entertaining on defense as they will when they are on offense.

The Lions are a couple years away but, for the first time in years, they have some pieces in place in the Megatron/Stafford/Best troika and guys like Suh and Delmas on defense. Jim Schwartz has made strides with this team since taking over a year ago. Are they breakout candidate? No. Could they sneak up and win 6 or 7 games this year? Sure.

4. Chicago Bears: All signs point to this being a disastourous season for the Bears. QB Jay Cutler led the league in interceptions last year and is now playing in a Mike Martz-led offense where protection(which was already terrible last year, when Cutler was sacked 35 times) will be at a minimum and Cutler will be firing wild passes constantly. The Bears didn't improve their turnstile offensive line and the running game is still a question mark. Can Matt Forte shake off his disappointing sophomore campaign? Can Chester Taylor get things going if Forte falters? Nobody really knows. Then, there's Cutler's "weapons". Devin Hester, Devin Aroshamadu, Johnny Knox and Earl Bennett are all high-ceiling guys who probably wouldn't be more than #3 wideouts on most teams. In fact, the Bears' best receiving option may be Greg Olsen, which would be great if the TE was utilized more in Martz's scheme. All of that means Cutler could very well be worse than the dreadful display he was last season.

On defense, Chicago replaced the late Gaines Adams by throwing a bucket of money at former Panthers Pro Bowl DE Julius Peppers. When motivated, Peppers is one of the game's dominant forces. Problem is, the keywords there are "when motivated". Carolina wasn't too pressed to keep Peppers because of his history of dogging it whenever he felt like it. Now, the Bears have to expect inspired play from a guy who just signed a HUGE contract. That's a recipe for disaster. Beyond Peppers, the Bears have two solid defensive pieces in DT Tommie Harris and MLB Brian Urlacher. Harris and Urlacher can be disruptive up the middle, but they are almost never healthy. Urlacher missed all of last season with a wrist injury and is already banged up in the preseason. Fellow LB Lance Briggs can make plays but he's a shell of himself after signing his big contract a couple years ago. As for the secondary, Nathan Vasher is gone and the guys in charge of shutting down the passing game are holdover Charles Tillman and youngster Zach Bowman. Bowman had 6 INTs last year and Tillman was an ace at forcing fumbles with 6. Safety Daniel Manning had 92 tackles last year, and he could be a bright spot for this defense but the key will be getting pressure up front. Chicago was in the bottom half of sacks last year and the hope is that Peppers has enough of a fire under his ass to fix that.

The Bears have all the makings of being a train wreck. Their QB, when not being a spoiled pouting baby, is the league's premier turnover machine. There isn't a receiver on this team that scares you unless Hester somehow morphs into the second coming of Torry Holt in this new offense(and, all signs point to Hester having struggles picking it up so far). The running game is suspect and the offensive line might as well be replaced with five large bricks. Bears fans are known for being testy and if Cutler and company falter again, there will be big changes this season in Chi-town.

Gabe:

I am going to skip the fantasy analysis for the rest of these because most of you have had your drafts and don't need the advice anymore. I'll be playing is straight from here on out.

1. Green Bay Packers - What do I like? The offense, especially Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Grant, and their roster of pass catchers. Rodgers is finally starting to get the love he deserves, especially from the fantasy set. Rodgers has shown that one can successfully be "the guy after the guy." Grant is great. Their tight end, Jermichael Finley, established himself as an elite go-to guy. Greg Jennings and Donald Driver are still one of the best receiving tandems in the league. If their offensive line is healthy this offense is going to be great.

On defense the only questions are in the secondary. I love their front seven, especially the linebackers. Dave touched on all of the injury issues they are having in the defensive backfield. They'll need to improve but I think they have enough to win what may turn out to be a pretty weak division.

2. Minnesota Fighting Favres - I don't like their offense. Adrian Peterson is great. He is one of the top two or three backs in the league. But...Brett Favre's ankle is hurt. I think it is going to bother him more as the season goes on. Their top receiver, Sidney Rice, is done for the year. Their no. 2, Percy Harvin, gets attacked suddenly by migraines and they never know when they'll strike. Bernard Berrian is a nice compliment receiver, but he's nobody's number 1. They just have too many offensive issues for me to put them ahead of Green Bay.

3. Detroit Lions - This team is coming up. They have a great young nucleus on offense with Matthew Stafford at quarterback, Jahvid Best and Kevin Smith at running back, and Calvin Johnson at receiver. After years of taking garbage in the draft they may have finally gotten it right these last three years.

Their defensive line might be down right nasty. Ndomukong Suh is a full grown man who obviously have no problem unceremoniously planting a veteran in the turf, even if it doesn't count. Just ask Jake Delhomme. I like the addition of Kyle Vanden Bosch as well. Like I said, this team is on the rise and is going to take a huge step forward this year.

4. Chicago Bears - This team has been in free fall for a while now. It's too bad not backing up loud mouth trash doesn't equal completions, because Jay Cutler would be a superstar. Now part of the problem is his receiving corps sucks. I guess if he could throw the ball straight up and let Devin Hester fair catch it they might do better. But Cutler's receivers aren't to blame for all of the interceptions he throws. And he is showing no signs of stopping that either. They have one nice weapon on offense in Matt Forte, but he needs to stay healthy. The defense has added some nice players but I think the offense is going to be terrible. They won't be able to do anything and they are going to lose a lot of games.