Saturday, September 11, 2010

NFL Picks Week 1

Another NFL season, another season of us making bone-headed picks. As you all can remember, Gabe came on strong in the second half of last season and took the season series from Dave.

So let's get right to 2010.

Thursday night's opener was a push so we are both currently sporting matching 0-0-1 records.

Here is how we see the rest of week one:

All lines courtesy of Danny Sheridan at USA Today....

Carolina (+6) at N.Y Giants

Gabe: Giants - Homer pick aside...I like the improvements the Giants have made to their defensive backfield. I think if their receivers gel with the rest of the offense they could be dangerous with the ball. I think the New York defense will shut down the Carolina passing game and make the Panthers one-dimensional. Now that dimension, their running game, is a damn good one, but I think the Giants hold them off and win by a touchdown, and just barely cover.

Dave: Panthers - If you read my NFC East preview, you know I'm high on this vaunted Giants pass rush and, believe me, it will be devastating........against teams that pass the ball a lot. The Panthers are not one of those teams. Keep in mind the last time these two teams met, Week 16 of last year in the Meadowlands, the Giants got served up a fresh plate of ass-whooping by Carolina to the tune of 41-9. Who was the starting QB for Carolina then? Matt Moore. Who's the starting QB this Sunday for the Panthers? Yup. Matt Moore. I think the Giants will be solid this year, but I want to see them stop the run against a team that makes no bones about its intentions of jamming the ball down their opponents' throats. Panthers are sneaky, and I like them here for the upset.

Miami (-3) at Buffalo

Gabe: Miami - Buffalo's defensive secondary are masters and the rest of the team are mere apprentices. Miami is a team of journeyman. I think the Bills' youth will show and they will make mistakes. Mistakes that will turn into points. I think Miami wins by 10

Dave: Miami - As much faith as former Miami pit boss Bill Parcells allegedly has lost in former prized pupil Chad Henne, I can't in good conscience pick the Bills here. Buffalo is dreadful. Their offensive line sucks. The coaching sucks. Their QBs suck. Their defense is years away from being average. The fact that they are only getting three at home when the weather won't be enough of a factor to keep this from being a blowout is laughable. Get reintroduced to the Wildcat and Ronnie Brown and Bills fans should start getting those Jake Locker jerseys stitched up.

Atlanta (-1.5) at Pittsburgh

Gabe: Atlanta - Pittsburgh is without starting douchebag Ben Roethlisberger for four games and are going to start Dennis Dixon on Sunday. I think they are going to miss Roethlisberger. Dixon was not great in pre-season and I think he'll struggle against the Falcons defense. The Falcons will be able to tee off on Rashard Mendenhall because of that. I think the Falcons offense will do just enough. Atlanta wins by 4.

Dave: Pittsburgh - Yes, Big Ben is out, but keep in mind that Dennis Dixon, in his lone start, gave a very good Ravens team all it could handle. The Falcons aren't the Ravens defensively. Polamalu's back for Pittsburgh and I think Mike Tomlin is going to dial up a steady dose of Rashard Mendenhall here in a battle of two power run games. I like the Steelers by a touchdown at home.

Detroit (+6.5) at Chicago

Gabe: Detroit - I really can't believe Chicago is favored in this game. Jay Cutler is decent, but his receivers are garbage. The Lions are on the rise, on offense and defense. Their offense is going to score some points and I think they'll get the outright win in my....wait for it......Upset Special!!!!

Dave: Detroit - Quick research advice for you. YouTube what Lions rookie DT Ndomukong Suh did to Browns QB Jake Delhomme. Then, look up how many sacks this Bears' offensive line gave up last year. Detroit is going to come at Jay Cutler heavy and we know Cutler can't throw with accuracy when the rush is in his face. I think we see The Motown Trio provide some highlights, followed by a little coming-out party for Mr. Suh. Meanwhile, ESPN gets Lovie Smith's seat warm for when he gets shit-canned by December. Lions by 6.

Cincinnati (+4.5) at New England

Gabe: New England - The Patriots run is almost over. I think this year will be the last that they are a threat. That being said, I think it will take until about the third quarter before of the two Bengals divas (T.O. and Ochocinco) is sulking because he isn't getting the ball enough. These guys are going to cause this team to implode this year. New England wins by a touchdown.

Dave: Cincinnati - The Bengals spent the offseason revamping its passing game, and this is the perfect defense to try it out against. After cutting Derrick Burgess, there isn't a man on this Pats' front seven that gives a QB chills. The secondary is young and, while The T.Ocho Show may have lost a step, they are cagey enough to make plays against these guys(especially if Palmer gets time to throw). New England's offense scares me a little, too. Brady's coming off a car crash, Moss is already sulking, Welker's knee isn't 100% and the Pats haven't had a RB worth a damn since Curtis Martin. Bengals win ugly on the road.

Cleveland (+3) at Tampa Bay

Gabe: Tampa Bay - The Bucs are young. Cleveland is a mess. I wouldn't watch this game if they were playing in my backyard. It is going to be ugly. That being said, I think Tampa is a little better and are playing with something to prove this year. Bucs by 4.

Dave: Cleveland - Bill Simmons made a decent point in his Week 1 podcast. If Jake Delhomme was ever going to have a game where he would doop Browns fans into thinking he's making a comeback, wouldn't it be against these Tampa Bay Bucs? Freeman's beat up for Tampa, so is Cadillac(as always) and the Bucs D is still a bit green. The Browns, meanwhile, are going to be better on D than you expect. Joe Haden's a promising young corner and Sheldon Brown is a solid vet and I say they each pick off Freeman(or whoever starts behind center for Tampa) at least once. Browns win in a game nobody cares about.

Denver (+3) at Jacksonville

Gabe: Jacksonville - Denver is going to be terrible this year. Jacksonville is not that good, but they have Mojo. Not mojo, but Mojo, Maurice Jones-Drew. I think he'll get nice at home and Jacksonville wins by 6.

Dave: Jacksonville - Tough call here. The Jags are dreadful enough on defense for this to be a blowout, but Denver doesn't have the firepower on offense to exploit this swiss-cheese Jacksonville D. The presence of Maurice Jones-Drew gives Jax the edge, but both teams will find wins to be a premium going forward.

Indianapolis (-2) at Houston

Gabe: Indianapolis - For two years now I have been waiting for Houston to make that next step and finally beat the Colts. They keep teasing but just can't seem to get there. Now they are without CB Dunta Robinson (moved on to Atlanta) and will be without LB Brian Cushing (suspension), and they are going to have to rely on Arian Foster to tote the rock. In years past I would've called for the upset, but not this year. Colts by 9.

Dave: Indianapolis - Peyton Manning doesn't lose to Houston. It just doesn't happen. Gabe mentioned Cushing being out and that's huge, especially with Super Mario Williams banged up, which limits Houston's pass rush. Colts' secondary is weak enough that this will turn into a shootout, but Dwight Freeney being semi-healthy for Indy gives the Colts an edge on D and, with just a two-point spread, I can see the Colts taking this one by a field goal.

Oakland (+6) at Tennessee

Gabe: Tennessee - I think Oakland is going to do some good things on defense this year but their offense is going to be a train wreck. The Titans have all-world running back Chris Johnson, one of the few players in the league who can single-handedly make a defense look stupid. The Raiders will have no answer for Johnson and the Titans will win by double digits.

Dave: Oakland - Oakland's defense is going to be better than you think. Yes, the offense is going to suck, but it will be better than last year. McFadden's healthy for the Raiders and the Titans D is going to be softer on the run with Keith Bulluck no longer manning the middle of that linebacking core. Plus, the Titans' offense isn't much beyond Chris Johnson so Oakland's going to stack the box and make Vince Young beat them(which will be tough to do with Nnamdi Asomugha covering the only Titans receiver that matters, Kenny Britt). Titans may eek this one out, but I can't co-sign a team that lost its first 8 games giving six points against a drastically-improved Raiders team.

Green Bay (-3) at Philadelphia

Gabe: Green Bay - I hear that Philadelphia's young offense is coming together and developing chemistry. Isn't that cute. Green Bay is good, really good. Kevin Kolb may have looked good in the two regular season games in which he's played, but he ain't Aaron Rodgers. The Packers go off and win by 10.

Dave: Green Bay - Going to test my jinx early by taking my boys here and hoping it doesn't back fire. Good litmus test game for Green Bay. Eagles are talented enough on offense to make this dubious Packers D work and Philly has enough pass-rush to make the Packers' offensive line show us what their made of. At the end of the day, Aaron Rodgers is a beast and the Packers are too talented and experienced on O not to take this one. Packers by 13.

San Francisco (-3) at Seattle

Gabe: San Francisco - I think this is easy. Seattle is going to be terrible. San Francisco is going to surprise people, especially on offense. Frank Gore and the Niners roll.

Dave: San Francisco - Niners are going to better than you think, especially on defense. Seahawks are going to be terrible, especially protecting the QB(at least with rookie OT Russell Okung out). What does that mean when you put the two together? A bad debut for Pete Carroll and the biggest blow to hit Seattle since Steven hit Irene on "The Real World".

Arizona (-3.5) at St. Louis

Gabe: Arizona - St. Louis is going to get better as the season goes on, but they will have growing pains first. I actually like Derek Anderson leading the Cardinals. I think he will be better for them than Matt Leinart. Beanie Wells is hurt, but Tim Hightower will carry the ball well and the Cardinal offense will make some noise. Arizona by 7.

Dave: St. Louis - I can't express how down I am on the Cardinals this year, and that was before I knew Beanie Wells was going to sit this one out with a knee injury. Derek Anderson is better than people think, but he's still barely average. Yes, the Rams probably don't have enough of a pass rush to make D.A. sweat in the pocket....but we don't KNOW that yet. If anyone can conjure up a pass rush, wouldn't it be Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo? Plus, Hightower has a tendency to leave the ball on the turf and this Cards defense is going to get chewed alive, post-Karlos Dansby, by Steven Jackson and a much-improved Rams O-Line(get introduced to Roger Saffold, rookie left tackle for Nellyville). Sam Bradford puts on a decent debut. Rams pull off the upset.

Dallas (-3.5) at Washington

Gabe: Dallas - The Cowboys' offensive line concerns me. On paper they should win this game easily. I think McNabb won't be as good as he was in Philly, most because his weapons in Washington aren't that good. I think the Cowboys have too much talent on both sides of the ball. It is an NFC East rivalry game, so anything could happen, but I'll say the 'Boys win by 6.

Dave: Dallas - Like Gabe, the Cowboys' offensive line concerns me, especially with Marc Colombo out. Still, the Cowboys ALWAYS seem to have Washington's number, eventhough McNabb is looking for vengeance after the way the Cowboys finished his final season in Philly. Redskins prove to be feistier than expected, but this defense is still too hodge-podge to pose enough of a threat to this shaky Cowboys O-Line. 'Boys by 10.

And the Monday Night doubleheader.....

Baltimore (+2) at N.Y Jets

Gabe: Baltimore - I'm like Ray Lewis...I don't believe in the Jets either. They are everybody's off-season darlings because they made their Cinderella run last year and they were on Hard Knocks and their coach is a loud mouth and their quarterback is cute (my wife's words, not mine.) Truth is, they were gifted a playoff berth last year. Mark Sanchez is going to take steps back this year because the running game won't be as good. I'm sorry, you can't expect Shonn Greene to pick up all of the slack left by Thomas Jones. The Ravens defense is still outstanding and now, with the addition of Anquan Boldin, T.J. Houshmanzedah, and Donte Stallworth, all at wide receiver, their offense is going to be something to be reckoned with. I think the Ravens will come out and hit the Jets in the mouth, knock them out of rhythm, and win the game outright.

Dave: Baltimore - The Jets are going to be a very good team down the stretch, but it's asking a lot to have star corner Darrelle Revis just waltz in after missing all summer with a contract holdout and go back to shutting down the opponent's best receiver. Plus, there's still some question marks for the Jets on offense. Can Mark Sanchez muster up enough of an air attack minus Santonio Holmes(a proven Raven killer)? Is Shonn Greene the real deal? How much does L.T. have left in him? The Ravens aren't the type of team that you can risk not knowing the answers to these questions immediately. Ravens get the W here in a homecoming for MY BOY Ray Rice.

San Diego (-4.5) at Kansas City

Gabe: San Diego - San Diego's offense is still going to be great. The Kansas City defense has gotten better but I don't think it will be enough. Phillip Rivers is going to get nice, and the Chargers win by at least a touchdown.

Dave: Kansas City - Remember last year when San Diego escaped Oakland in the Monday Night opener by the skin of their teeth? That was WITH Pro Bowl LT Marcus McNeil, Pro Bowl RB LaDainian Tomlinson and Pro Bowl WR Vincent Jackson. None of those guys will be joining us for dinner at Arrowhead. Do I think K.C. can pull off the win here? Not really. The D has too many questions to keep Rivers in check for too long. Can they keep it close? Absolutely. San Diego's D is average, at best, and the Chiefs have enough on offense to keep things close. Chargers win on a Kaeding field goal. Chiefs cover the spread.

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