NFC South Preview

Our look at the NFC South.....

DAVE:

1. New Orleans Saints: I know the NFC South hasn't had a repeat division winner in quite some time. I know that the team that has finished last has ended up winning the division the next year the last few years. I know this. That being said, these are the defending Super Bowl champs. They are led by the best QB in the game and perhaps even the league's best coach. Also, there's really nobody else in this division that even garners enough sleeper buzz to make me waver here(You can keep your Falcons as a dark horse hype. I'll pass). Drew Brees, year after year, continues to orchestrate this offense like a maestro. No matter how meak the running game. No matter how unknown the receivers. Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Lance Moore aren't sexy names like Baltimore's new trio or the guys out in Dallas, but they fit the scheme well and they have great chemistry with Brees and that's all that matters. As for the running game, Pierre Thomas is adequate in a Antione Smith/Charlie Garner/Michael Pittman kind of way. He isn't a gamebreaker but he can move the chains if you underestimate him. Reggie Bush, meanwhile, is SUPPOSED to be a gamebreaker. He showed flashes in the playoffs, but the Saints can't claim that this is what they expected from the man heralded as "The Next Gale Sayers". This has to be the year Bush drops jaws like he did during his career at USC. Last year's Super Bowl win was nice, but if Bush proves to be dangerous, he adds an element to this offense that makes them even more powerful.

The defense should be better in Year 2 under Gregg Williams. There aren't many big time stars in this front seven, but that's not going to stop Williams from unleashing blitz after blitz. DT Sedrick Ellis has been banged up quite a bit in his short career but he can be a force inside when he's healthy. The same can be said for former Bear DE Alex Brown and fellow DE Will Smith. Both are solid pass-rushers who have to avoid the injury bug. LB Jon Vilma is a tackling machine and this new scheme allows him to fly all over the field like a heat-seeking missle. The secondary is still a question mark, even with the breakout postseason by CB Tracy Porter. Porter proved to be a playmaker in the Super Bowl and NFC Championship, but we've seen guys have big moments in the postseason and then fall flat on their face. Remember Larry Brown? Remember Dwight Smith? Porter's a solid corner. He's not Darrelle Revis. Free safety Darren Sharper IS a big-time playmaker, but he's also injured and it looks like he'll miss at least the first six games with a knee injury. Last year's first rounder Malcolm Jenkins got roasted in his rookie season and he's going to have to make HUGE strides to keep this pass defense from getting exposed(especially in the season opener against Brett Favre and the Vikings).

Long story short, the Saints are still the class of this division. It will be interesting to see if Brees avoids the Madden Curse, but this team should still be a threat to win 10-11 games. However, Jenkins and Bush are the X-factors for this team. Jenkins holds the key to the secondary in Sharper's absence. The Saints stayed afloat last year because of Sharper's instincts and experience. That's missing for the immediate future. As for Bush, he's not the lead back but he's the guy defenses will key on. He'll have to prove to be more than a dangerous punt returner in the final year of his rookie contract. The production of those two and the health of Brees are the keys to New Orleans' chances of repeating. They can survive the division if the defense remains adequate and Brees continues to flourish, but they are going to need more lucky bounces(like last year) to make a run back to the Super Bowl. Personally, I think they'll settle on taking the division.

2. Atlanta Falcons: For some reason, be it experts trying to be edgy by rallying around a team nobody else is checking for or what have you, there's a lot of buzz surrounding these Atlanta Falcons. Don't get me wrong. The Falcons are promising. Matt Ryan is proving to be a better QB than I initially gave him credit for, Roddy White has become an elite receiver and Micheal Turner is a bulldozer when healthy. Still, upon further review, it's hard to get TOO excited about the Dirty Birds. Ryan's been solid in his first two years but he also has the tendency to connect passes to guys in the different colored shirts(25 picks in 2 years....not terrible, but a bit of a concern). Turner rushed for under 1,000 yards last year, mainly as a side effect to his big 2008 and still getting adjusted to being the every-down back after being a caddy in San Diego. White has put up consistent numbers over the last few years, but who is there behind him at wideout? Micheal Jenkins has been hit-or-miss since the Falcons used a first-round pick on him years ago. TE Tony Gonzalez is still a red zone maven and one of the game's best tight ends, but you wonder when Father Time will catch up to him as well.

Defensively, the Falcons may have the most underrated LB trio in the NFL. Curtis Lofton is the best MLB you aren't talking about, OLB Mike Peterson can make plays and there's a lot of hope around first round pick Sean Weatherspoon. On the defensive line, former top 10 pick Jamaal Anderson has to shake the cobwebs off and become a star. He has 2.5 sacks in four years and currently sits behind Kroy Biermann as the starter opposite John Abraham. Abraham is a QB's nightmare, but he's almost never healthy. He has great speed and is very much a poor man's Dwight Freeney.....when he's on the field. Speaking on injuries, former 1st rounder Peria Jerry will make his NFL debut after missing all of last season with a knee injury. Jerry can clog the middle inside but it's still questionable how his knee will hold up and how effective he can be having never actually played a meaningful NFL game. The Falcons secondary got a boost when it signed Dunta Robinson away from Houston. Robinson(much like the rest of the Falcons D) is solid-yet-oft-injured. He can be a shutdown corner but he's prone to knicks and bumps. S Erik Coleman makes plays and his 116 tackles last year proves he can make stops all over the field. He and Robinson will have to because the rest of the Falcons' secondary is a bit suspect.

The Falcons have a lot of potential, on paper, but season after season, we see a lot of sexy picks become more unattractive as warts get discovered. Before I can co-sign Atlanta as a potential elite team, I'd have to see them play like one. That means a bounce back year from Turner, some better decision making from Ryan and an emergence from some of the young guys on this defense. Otherwise, this is just another team causing a frenzy for no reason.

3. Carolina Panthers: Is Matt Moore the real deal? That's the question surrounding the fate of the Panthers' season. To many, Moore is the seat warmer for eventual franchise QB Jimmy Clausen, but Moore's 26, he was 4-1 as a starter and threw six touchdowns to two picks last season. We've seen this before. Teams draft a high-profile kid out of college as their QB of the future before taking a look at the incumbent and the "heir apparent" ends up riding the bench longer than expected(Best example: San Diego with Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers). I'm not saying Moore's a Pro Bowler, but he certainly has the weapons to, at the very least, not suck. It starts with his massive offensive line, and Carolina's two big-time tackles Jordan Gross and Jeff Otah(although Otah is a bit slowed by a knee injury). Those two will be keeping Moore upright long enough for him to launch bombs to one of the game's most dangerous receivers, Steve Smith. Smith had nearly 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns, three of which coming with Moore at the helm. Helping Moore's cause(and Smith's cause, as well) will be the Panthers' own version of "Thunder" and "Lightning" in bruising back Jonathan Stewart and jitterbug DeAngelo Williams. Both backs eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark last year, with Williams scoring seven touchdowns and "The Daily Show" chipping in ten scores. Their production lightens the load on Moore in his first full season as starter. The only real question is who will be lining up opposite Smith? The team drafted Brandon LaFell out of LSU and, right now, he has the edge over former USC bust Dwayne Jarrett. The Panthers also added Armanti Edwards, who is someone to also keep an eye on this season.

The Panthers defense has a bit more uncertainty than their run-oriented O. In case you missed it, Pro Bowl DE Julius Peppers left for greener pastures in Chicago. His spot will be manned now by former Raider Tyler Brayton. Brayton has played well in the preseason, doing a good job of pressuring QBs, but he isn't the playmaker that Peppers was. Inside, the team is still looking for someone to produce on the interior ever since Kris Jenkins left. DTs Ed Johnson and Louis Leonard are subpar at best. Luckily, the Panthers have some good linebackers behind them. "The Beast" Jon Beason is moving from his comfy middle linebacker spot to man the outside and make room for another promising young tackler, Dan Conner. The secondary has a decent pair of corners in Chris Gamble and Richard Marshall. Marshall proved he could lay the lumber last season, racking up 88 tackles, while both men had four interceptions. Safety Charles Godfrey got a lot of buzz in the draft a couple years ago and, now in his third season, he has prove he's the playmaker the Panthers thought he would be.

So, the Panthers may very well be in good hands with Moore behind center. Unlike most young, inexperienced QBs, Moore steps in with a stout offensive line, a reliable running game and a fine playmaker at wideout. The question becomes, with head coach John Fox on the hot seat, will Moore feel Clausen constantly breathing down his neck if things go awry. Defensively, somebody has to step up to replace Peppers and the interior of that defensive line has to hold up and take some pressure off Beason and Conner to constantly make plays. The Panthers have the Super Bowl champs and a sexy sleeper in Atlanta in their division, but if a couple things bounce their way, their potential plus Fox's desperation could translate into a surprisingly good year for Carolina.

4. Tampa Bay Bucs: This is going to be an ugly year for Tampa Bay. Head coach Raheem Morris proved to be in over his head in his first year as coach last season and I'd be surprised if he isn't the first coach canned this season. QB Josh Freeman is promising and definitely has the tools to be good, but he's a year or two away, mainly because his receivers need to develop. The Bucs used draft picks on Syracuse WR Mike Williams and Illinois' Arrellious Benn. Williams has been the story of preseason for Tampa, and surprisingly beat out Benn for a starting spot. Benn, meanwhile, will be waiting behind former Eagle Reggie Brown. Brown flunked as a #1 in Philly, so it's hard to feel confident about his chances of being the man in Tampa Bay. The running game is equally dreadful. RB Cadillac Williams is now the unquestioned starter after the team bid adieu to free agent bust Derrick Ward and after moving former starter Earnest Graham to fullback. However, Williams hasn't been healthy in ages and he may actually beat out Morris as the first Buc on the shelf. Behind Caddy is unknown Kareem Huggins.....who? Yeah, exactly. On the bright side, the team has Kellen Winslow at tight end......and he's a soldier. Just ask him.

Defensively, the Bucs are big on potential and inexperience. Tampa Bay drafted Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy with the 3rd overall pick and then found him a tag team partner in 2nd rounder Brian Price. Price led the Pac-10 in sacks while at UCLA and many believed McCoy was on par if not better than Heisman candidate and 2nd overall pick Ndomukong Suh. Those two will need to produce immediately because there isn't much proven talent on the rest of the line. The DE formerly known as DeWayne White(now Stylez White) has fallen out of favor with the coaching staff but, with nobody even decent enough to replace him, White's spot remains in tact for now. The linebacking core has a couple solid prospects in former Seminole Geno Hayes and tackling machine Barrett Ruud. In the secondary, Ronde Barber returns for his 300th season as Tampa Bay's elder statesman and as the only tolerable Barber brother. He'll be shepherding a young secondary featuring guys like safety Tanard Jackson and corner Myron Lewis.

The Bucs have a ton of young talent but, in order to keep Morris off the unemployment line, they(especially Freeman) are going to have to make big strides in Year 2 of the Raheem Regime. At this point, expecting Cadillac to make it thru even half a season is a stretch and the hope is that Huggins can pick up some of the slack. Benn and Williams will have to emerge or show flashes as rookies since it's clear Brown is nothing more than a stop gap. On defense, McCoy and Price have to live up to their college press clippings and if another corner can step up to eventually replace Ronde, it will put Tampa in a better position going forward. Still, this is a tough division and this is a very young team with a very young coach who made far too many mistakes as the head man last year(firing both coordinators before season's end tops the list of Morris mistakes). So, expect a handful of wins, Morris to be unemployed and a couple of "ooohs" and "aaahs" from the youngsters.....but don't expect much else.

Gabe:

I hate to keep sounding like Dave but here goes....

1. New Orleans Saints - As Dave said, this division hasn't had a repeat winner since Jesus was captain, but that is going to change this year. Last year the Saints won the Super Bowl. This year they have basically the same team. All of their receivers are back and really, Marques Colston is the 1, but after that each guy, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachum, and Lance Moore, is a threat to have a huge game. Any of their receivers can take almost any pass the distance. Their running game has a weak reputation, but they are good. They use the backs in the passing game frequently and when healthy Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush are a good inside/outside combo.

Dave is right about their defense. The front seven aren't flashy, but they are good. They play well as a team and blitz like crazy. Williams is a great DC. The secondary does need to improve, but with another year under Williams' system they should do that. Either way, if they do get exposed and another team puts up some points, is there any team better equipped on offense to respond than the Saints? I'll take New Orleans in a shoot out against anyone.

2. Atlanta Fighting Matty Ices - I like Atlanta's offense, I don't love it. Matt Ryan busted out his rookie year and has made strides since. He has a decent top receiver in Roddy White, a still great tight end in future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez, and a workhorse back in Michael Turner. It is essential that Turner stay healthy for the Falcons to progress. Two years ago he touched the ball about 2,600 times (true statistic....OK, not true), and suffered last year because of it.

The Falcons defense is unheralded. I like their front seven. I think signing Dunta Robinson is going to be huge for them. Robinson was always good, and sometimes great, in Houston. I think he will give this defense a huge lift.

3. Carolina Panthers - The Panthers have a huge running game. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan "The Daily Show" Stewart are both outstanding. Top receiver Steve Smith and quarterback Matt Moore have a great chemistry. The popular sentiment is that Moore is just keeping the seat warm for rookie Jimmy Clausen, but I don't think that's true. I think Moore can play well enough to keep Clausen on the sidelines with a headset on, for at least a year. The defensive line is going to struggle. Julius Peppers will be sorely missed. As Dave said the linebackers and secondary are a decent group. I think they will have too much on their hands trying to handle the Falcons and Saints though.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Here is the story with Tampa Bay. They are young. They have a young coach. They have a young quarterback. They are inexperienced. This year they drafted McCoy and Been who have tons of potential. I think the Bucs are a year or two away from being contenders. Unfortunately Raheem Morris might not have that kind of time.