Who Turned Out The Lights?

Years from now, we may remember this past Monday night as the night it all came unglued for the San Diego Chargers. Eventhough I forecasted an epic downfall for the Bolts this season and picked Kansas City for their eventual upset at Arrowhead, it never became more evident that things were on a downward spiral for the Chargers until we saw QB Phillip Rivers throw tantrum after tantrum on the field shouting at his teammates on that rainy night in Kansas City.

You see, in the NFL, long-term success is based on the ability to minimize big mistakes. That's why teams that don't draft or sign free agents well over a significant amount of time tend to fail(Oakland, Denver, Cleveland and, until recently, Detroit) while others reap the benefits of their wise decisions(Green Bay, Philly, Indy, and until recently, New England). The Patriots have been on both sides of this spectrum. In the early part of this millennium, they established a dynasty by hitting home runs on a few draft picks(Tom Brady, Richard Seymour, Logan Mankins, Asante Samuel, etc.) and making some savvy pick-ups(Roosevelt Colvin, Corey Dillon, Wes Welker, the first Randy Moss year). Over the course of the last few years, the Pats, either through arrogance or bad luck, haven't had the same fortune. After years of winning with journeymen running backs, the Pats swung and missed on first-rounder Laurence Maroney(who was dealt yesterday to Denver for a 4th round pick). They are starting to see the downside to bringing in a notorious malcontent like Moss. They wiffed on the Adalius Thomas signing, and a few of their risky draft picks have yet to pan out(Brandon Meriweather, Brandon Tate, to name a couple). Good coaching and the consistency of guys like Brady and Welker have kept New England from being where San Diego currently is now.

Don't get me wrong. The Chargers have been successful over the last few years, including division titles the last four years and playoff berths in five of the last six seasons. However, their success hasn't translated into championships and, while winning can erase most problems, if the wheels are indeed falling off on the Chargers wagon, it will because of a couple key critical mistakes that are now coming back to haunt them.

Mistake #1: In 2004, the Chargers decided to pull the plug on their experiment with an undersized QB from Purdue named Drew Brees as their franchise QB after a couple unproductive seasons. Sitting first in the Draft after a 4-12 season, the Chargers pulled the trigger on Ole Miss QB Eli Manning. After Manning played the diva card and demanded a trade out of San Diego on Draft Day, San Diego swung a deal that netted them North Carolina State gunslinger Phillip Rivers.

The Result: Brees used Rivers' presence as the final spark to light the fire under his ass. After throwing 28 touchdowns(to 31 INTs) in his first two full seasons as starter, Brees threw 27 TDs to just 7 picks while going 11-4 in 15 starts. The next season, Brees threw for 24 TDs in his contract year, but wrecked his shoulder on what would be his final snap as a Charger. Brees would go on to sign with New Orleans, becomes the Saints' savior and win a Super Bowl. Rivers, meanwhile, wasn't too shabby himself as Brees' replacement. He's led the Chargers to playoffs every year since taking over, went to the Pro Bowl in '06 and '09, and has established himself as one of the best QBs in the game. Still, of the 2004 Big Three QB's(Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Rivers), he remains the only one without a ring and, for all of Rivers' good, there have been times where Rivers' frat boy cockiness and immaturity rear its ugly head(such as this past Monday night and his pissing match with Jay Cutler a couple years ago).

Mistake #2: Despite a 14-2 season and coming thisclose to a Super Bowl berth, tensions between head coach Marty Schottenheimer and GM A.J. Smith lead to Schottie's upheaval. San Diego opts for Norv Turner, a man with a reputation for being solid as a coordinator but has flopped nearly everywhere he's been the head coach.

The Result: The Chargers haven't exactly missed a beat under Turner. The offense is still prolific and the team still manages to make frequent trips to the postseason. Still, in crunch time situations, Turner's lack of ability as a leader tends to show and he has to accept a brunt of the blame for this team underachieving in January(most notably, last season, when they were shut down by the wild card Jets). Meanwhile, Schottenheimer's name comes up every once in a while as a head coaching candidate(he was linked to Cleveland last year before the Browns decided to stick with Eric Mangini). The fact that Schottenheimer hasn't been picked up anywhere outside of as a consultant for the Jets kind of takes some of the pressure off of Turner and his struggles, but if the Chargers fail and Marty can find work elsewhere, we will forever wonder what could have been if cooler heads prevailed.

Mistake # 3: Coming off his two worst seasons as a pro, the Chargers finally decide to sever ties with future Hall of Fame RB LaDainian Tomlinson and move up in this year's Draft to select Ryan Mathews out of Fresno State as his heir apparent.

The Result: The jury is still out on whether swapping LT for Mathews was smart. History has shown us that its better to cut your losses early with running backs(especially ones with the milage L.T. had prior to his release) nearing or at the age of 30(L.T. was technically 31 when he was cut). Through one game this season, Mathews has outrushed Tomlinson 75 to 63 but it should be mentioned that Mathews was putting in work against a still young Chiefs defense and L.T. was splitting carries with Shonn Greene against one of the best run defenses in football in Baltimore. Perhaps this isn't a "mistake", per se, but you wonder if the smarter play was to let L.T., however much of a cadaver he was in his past two seasons(and even as bad as they were, he still rushed for nearly 1,1oo yards with 11 TDs two years ago and had a team-high 12 TDs last year), finish things out as a Bolt and split time with Mathews before the youngster eventually took over(kind of like how Seattle did with Ricky Waters and Shaun Alexander) rather than push L.T. off the wagon and go with a Mathews/Darren Sproles tag team.

Mistake # 4: Despite the lack of a salary cap, GM A.J. Smith does not feel compelled to throw big dollars at WR Vincent Jackson, coming off a career year that saw him go to the Pro Bowl, or two-time Pro Bowl left tackle Marcus McNeil. Instead, the team tries to make due with guys like Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Naanee at wideout and cross their fingers that Brandon Dombrowski can protect Rivers' blind side after the Tra Thomas signing blows up in their face.

The Result: This, to me, will be the nail in the coffin if these contract situations continue to go unresolved. We knew Jackson was going to miss the first three games of the season thanks to a suspension for a DUI. We knew Jackson would then take a hard stance and refuse to play the rest of the season. We do not know why the Chargers, given a WR market that saw guys like Anquan Boldin and Brandon Marshall get dealt out of their respective towns, would refuse to move Jackson when there was still interest. The Seahawks and Rams inquired about trading for Jackson but were either turned off by SD's demands or never got the indication that Smith was serious about making a deal.

As for McNeil, Rivers hasn't taken enough punishment yet to really chastise the decision to be thrifty with such an elite pass-protector, and the Chargers don't play anyone with a decent enough pass rush to exploit McNeil's absence for quite some time. Still, Rivers never looked comfortable in the pocket against a meek Chiefs pass rush and when you combine a lack of protection with the absence of his favorite receiver, you start to get an understanding to why Rivers was a bit peeved at his boys on Monday night. At this point, I don't think Jackson's ever lacing them up for San Diego again. McNeil may come back if Rivers starts to feel a bit more pressure than he's used to and starts directing his anger at the suits to get his Pro Bowl left tackle back. Still, the fact that Smith showed a blatant disregard for what has been the team's bread and butter, the passing game, combined with an embarrassing loss to a Chiefs team that were nearly seven point underdogs at home may mean Smith will be joining Jackson on that plane ride out of California.

Depending on how this season goes and the fortunes of guys like Tomlinson and Jackson turn out to be, the Chargers may become one of the great "What Ifs" of this generation. In 2005, the Chargers had the league's best back in Tomlinson, a man who would become a prolific passer in Brees and had just drafted Vincent Jackson on top of already discovering a former basketball player turned Pro Bowl tight end in Antonio Gates. You can't help but wonder what would happen if the powers-that-be didn't break that up. Would a Brees/LT/Jackson/Gates foursome have faired better, with Schottenheimer at the helm, than Norv's Rivers/LT/Jackson/Gates quattro? The world will never know. However, if the Chargers continue to perform like the team that got outplayed on Monday night, it will be a question that will continue to be asked for years to come.....especially to Smith on his way to the unemployment line.