I paid the price for trying to get too cute last week, as I got crushed by rolling the dice on Oakland over Tennessee and just narrowly missed a Rams cover against the Cardinals. The result was starting the season with a two-game deficit to Gabe.
Hopefully, things change in Week 2. (As always, lines brought to you by Danny Sheridan of USA Today).
Last Week - Dave: 7-7-2, Gabe: 9-5-2
Season - Dave: 7-7-2, Gabe: 9-5-2
Chiefs(+2.5) at Browns
Dave: Chiefs - This spread makes zero sense to me. I know the Browns are at home, but they are coming off a loss to the lowly Bucs. The Chiefs, meanwhile, upset the once-mighty Chargers(as predicted by me in this very space last week) on Monday night. Yes, the Chiefs are on short rest having played deep into Tuesday morning and then having to hop on a plane to Cleveland for an early game against the Browns....BUT Cleveland will be starting Seneca Wallace, which makes an already putrid offense that much more meager. If the Chiefs could stifle San Diego with smoke and mirrors and some big plays by their youngsters, I see no reason why that can't happen against the Browns.
Gabe: Chiefs - The Browns are terrible and, as Dave said, they are starting Seneca Wallace at quarterback. I think the Kansas City defense will be able to tee off on Wallace. I see now reason why the Kansas City offense will have any trouble. The only thing holding me back from really loving K.C. is the travel. They are on a very short week and having to travel a good distance to play this game. This could affect them because they are relying on young and inexperienced players to get the job done. Still, I think they squeeze it out. Give me the Chiefs and a 3-point win.
Packers(-12.5) at Bills
Dave: Packers - Even without Ryan Grant, every aspect of this game points to Green Bay having the advantage. Their athletic front seven should dominate a meek Bills offensive line. Their high-octane offense, even with Brandon Jackson in for Grant, shouldn't have too much trouble with a Posluszny-less defense. The only real concern is if Green Bay takes the foot off the gas late in the game like they did with Philly last week and lets the game get close enough that they don't cover. I say Green Bay unloads on Buffalo. Packers by 17.
Gabe: Packers - You usually don't see lines this big this early in the season. The Packers will be up huge early and then they are going to give Brandon Jackson the ball late to shorten the game. Jackson is going to be out to prove something so he'll keep his intensity up, even as the game drags on. It won't be close, Packers by two touchdowns.
Ravens(-2.5) at Bengals
Dave: Ravens - Tough call here. I wasn't impressed with the Ravens' new offense on Monday night. You can attribute that to the fact they were playing a superb defensive team in the Jets, but they still looked sloppy. The Bengals, meanwhile, looked even more unimpressive, especially on defense. The Ravens are also out for revenge, having gotten swept by Cincy last year. I think Flacco rebounds from a so-so game as the Bengals continue to try to develop a pass rush and they win an ugly 13-10 game on the road.
Gabe: Ravens - Not so tough call. The Ravens' offense is going to want to flex their muscle after what they did last week against the Jets. Cincy's defense was embarrassed last week and they'll be looking to bounce back, but the Ravens have too many weapons. On the other side, great defense always beats good offense, so I'll give the Ravens the advantage there. If the Bengals could get points for TV shows they'd have this in the bag. T.O. and Ochocinco has their silly reality shows. Linebacker Dhani Jones has a fantastic show on the Travel Channel. And, as a bonus, Ochocinco was on The League this week. Too bad they can't. Ravens by a touchdown.
Steelers(+5) at Titans
Dave: Steelers - Before we get carried away about the Titans' dominant performance last week, let's remember that they were beating on a Raiders team that, while some expected to be improved, is still a bit lacking in many aspects. The Steelers beat a Falcons team, albeit an ugly OT victory, who many liked as either division champs in the NFC South or a sexy Wild Card sleeper. Yes, Dennis Dixon isn't going to put on an air show, but the Steelers have always won games with a smashmouth run game and tough D. Tennessee will counter with the Chris Johnson Show, but as CJ saw last year, Pittsburgh knows how to shut Mr. 2000 Yards down.
Gabe: Titans - Tennessee is going to be flying high after that win last week. The Raiders are improved which makes the Titans' win that much more impressive. The Steelers do win using their running game, and needed it to win last week in overtime after only putting up three field goals the rest of the game. As far as handling CJ, there's a thing called film study. Chris Johnson will be out to prove something personally and the Titans roll. Titans by a touchdown.
Eagles(-6.5) at Lions
Dave: Eagles - The infamous Andy Reid terrible clock management reared its ugly yet familiar head late in what could have been a comeback against Green Bay. The fact that Reid can't come up with a late game strategy after this long a tenure as head coach is simply mind-boggling. Regardless, the Eagles are proving to be every bit of the 6-10 team I pegged them to be in June. Luckily, Kevin Kolb's flunked concussion test opened the door for the man who should have been the starting QB all along: Michael Vick. Vick showed last week against a very game Packers D that his legs are back and he's improved as a passer. This time around, he gets a Lions team still reeling off getting jobbed against Chicago. Eagles have too much on D for them not to shut down a Shaun Hill-led Lions offensive attack and Detroit's D, while improved, will not be able to keep up with Vick The Quick. Eagles win by 10.
Gabe: Eagles - This comes down to the quarterbacks. If Matthew Stafford were starting I'd like the Lions a little more. With Shaun Hill starting their offense is diminished. On the other side, Michael Vick is starting for the Eagles, and he looks good. I think the Lions will try to key on Vick and in doing so, allow the rest of the Eagles defense to fun free. Eagles just barely cover and win by a touchdown.
Bears(+7) at Cowboys
Dave: Bears - This is either a trap game or another one of my classic hunches that blows up in my face. On the one hand, I can see a solid Chicago pass rush overwhelming a Cowboys offensive line that was every bit as disappointing as I had expected in the preseason and forcing this offense to continue to sputter. On the other hand, I can see Jay Cutler and his scatter-shot accuracy doing the Bears in and Dallas putting up some points thanks to a game of field position. I'm still not a believer in Dallas and, while I'm hardly on the Bears bandwagon after they stole a win against Detroit, I'm leaning more towards this game being close than Dallas finally deciding to play like the contenders everyone claims they are.
Gabe: Cowboys - Last week, the Cowboys fell victim to a great game plan in Washington and the Bears got lucky against the Lions. (Yes, technically that wasn't a touchdown but the rule stinks and it should have been a touchdown.) Jay Cutler is going to spray the ball and I think the 'Boys will get one defensive touchdown. I think the Dallas offense overwhelms the Chicago defense and the Cowboys win by double digits.
Bucs(+3) at Panthers
Dave: Panthers - The Bucs benefited from Jake Delhomme being Jake Delhomme in their W over Cleveland last week. Carolina will be trotting out a woozy Matt Moore, coming off a concussion, which means they'll be ramming Tampa Bay with a steady dose of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Carolina's better than the team that got stomped by the Giants and the Bucs aren't as good as their win over Cleveland would suggest. Panthers grind this one out, win by a touchdown.
Gabe: Panthers - I think this might be the easiest call on the board. The Panthers got worked by the Giants last week, but the Giants had owed the Panthers that ass-kicking since last season. DeAngelo Williams is going to run wild and Jonathan Stewart is going to have a bounce back game. The Panthers will run the ball down the Bucs' throats, shorten the game, and win a relatively low scoring affair by a touchdown.
Cardinals(+6.5) at Falcons
Dave: Falcons - Atlanta's better than the team that couldn't move the ball against Pittsburgh last week. Arizona looked pedestrian against St. Louis last week and now face a higher quality of opponent in Atlanta. Dunta Robinson will be sticking to Larry Fitzgerald like glue and, with Beanie Wells out, the Cards will have to rely on Derek Anderson finding Steve Breaston early and often. I'm thinking Atlanta's offense rebounds and takes Arizona to task. Falcons by 10.
Gabe: Cardinals - Atlanta is better than they showed last week. I think the Cardinals are going to be one of those teams that plays up and down to their competition. I think they'll get up for this game and will be able to hang with the Falcons. Dave mentioned Derek Anderson to Steve Breaston. That isn't a marquis combo, but it could surprise you and go for two touchdowns. I don't think the Cards will win, but they will keep it close. I think the Falcons win by three, so the Cards beat the spread.
Dolphins(+5.5) at Vikings
Dave: Vikings - Dolphins have to prove they can execute the deep ball if they want to make the Brandon Marshall acquisition legit. Marshall lured in eight catches but for a measly 53 yards against a average Bills secondary. Now, Chad Henne will have to make plays with this Minnesota defensive line constantly in his face, on the road and with running the ball almost not an option with The Williams Wall up the middle. Favre couldn't shake the rust off against New Orleans and the lack of a proven deep threat is going to continue to hurt this offense. Luckily, the struggles in the vertical game will mean Minny will rely on Adrian Peterson a bit more and I don't think Miami can shut down Purple Jesus. Vikings win by 9.
Gabe: Vikings - And again, I don't think it will be close. The Vikings have had a long break after opening the season on Thursday night. They are going to run A.P. like crazy and use the short and mid-range passing game to dink and dunk Miami to death. Miami won't be able to get any traction on offense. The Vikings win by a touchdown.
Rams(+3.5) at Raiders
Dave: Raiders - Really? I have to pick a winner in this one? If not for the 3.5 spread, I'd go push here since this is a battle of two struggling offenses with defenses that are average but have a lot of upside. Rams top pick Sam Bradford is coming off throwing the ball 55 times in his NFL debut after having two shoulder injuries last year at Oklahoma. I wonder how that arm holds up if he's slinging it THIS much. Raiders laid down against Tennessee but the D is better than you think. Raiders eek this one out in a game that will be harder to watch than a Joy Behar sex tape.
Gabe: Rams - This comes down to Stephen Jackson and Sam Bradford. Bradford doesn't have to sling the ball 55 times again for them to win this game, there just has to be the threat that he will. That will loosen the defense up for SJax to run free. I don't expect Oakland to lay down again, but that organization is so dysfunctional I wouldn't be surprised if they do. This game will be won by a field goal either way. So in my "Gabe wouldn't watch this game if it was played in his backyard special," give me the Rams.
Seahawks(+3) at Broncos
Dave: Seahawks - Broncos couldn't really move the ball against a Jags team with not much pass rush beyond a recuperating Aaron Kampman. Seattle, meanwhile, pulled the week's most surprising upset with a thrashing of NFC West darling San Francisco. Kyle Orton's slightly better than Alex Smith but not by much and, really, who is he throwing to in this offense? Seattle pulls off another win as the Tebow chants start to pick up in Colorado.
Gabe: Seahawks - No one was more surprised by the way Seattle played last week more than I. They might be alright. The key here is the Broncos stink. If Seattle is for real then this one will not be close. I'll take the Seahawks to win by a touchdown in a marginal...meh...upset special.
Texans(-2.5) at Redskins
Dave: Texans - Houston finally has a running game thanks to the continued breakout of Arian Foster. Washington was impressive in holding the Cowboys to 7 points last week at home but it's tough to expect them to duplicate that against the Texans, whose offensive line won't shoot themselves in the foot like Dallas did. Redskins also struggle moving the ball, which could be a big problem if Houston continues to heat up on offense. Texans by 10.
Jaguars(+7) at Chargers
Dave: Chargers - It would be easy to get cute and pick Jacksonville after watching San Diego implode against Kansas City and Jacksonville beat up Denver, but the Chargers aren't as bad as we saw Monday night(although with Marcus McNeil and Vincent Jackson gone, they aren't very good). The Jags always seem to disappoint when momentum is on their side, so I can see San Diego picking Jacksonville apart. I think this is the game Ryan Mathews makes his run at the Rookie of the Year. Chargers by 10.
Gabe: Chargers - The Chargers always start slowly, so I'll give them a pass for last week. They are more talented than Jacksonville and the Jags have to travel all the way across the country for this game. I think the Chargers bounce back and win by double digits.
Patriots(-3) at Jets
Dave: Jets - The Jets are too good to fall 0-2. Randy Moss is going to get lost on Revis Island and I think Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson play better after what had to be a week-long ass-chewing by Rex Ryan. The Patriots can't run the ball. The Jets can, plus they are at home and they are motivated to prove that the hype is real. Shonn Greene comes on strong and Ryan keeps Sanchez from killing the offense. Revis gets his first pick and Moss continues to sulk. Jets by 3.
Gabe: Patriots - The Jets are falling to 0-2. Mark Sanchez is not that good and they can't keep winning games by relying on their defense. Then there is the whole Moss/Revis flap. Revis fucked up. Before Revis was Revis Island, Randy Moss was an all-world receiver. He may have lost a step, but he still has the ability to smoke anyone for one game. He also has Tom Brady throwing him the ball and mad genius Bill Belhichick devising schemes and plays for him. I think Randy Moss is going to have a huge game. Revis shut him down twice last year, so Moss owes him. The Jets have a lot of hype, but they may have bitten off more than they can chew. Pats by 7.
Giants(+5) at Colts
Dave: Colts - Eli Manning and Peyton Manning are brothers from a prestigious family with storied careers. They both have Super Bowl rings and Super Bowl MVPs. That's where the similarities end. Eli facing Peyton in a game of football is like Tito Jackson trying to outdance Michael or a home run derby between Vlad and Wilton Guerrero. Don't let the Colts shitting the bed last week fool you. The Colts are still going to put up points. Yes, Peyton is probably going to toss one to Antrel Rolle here. Yes, the Giants pass rush will get in Peyton's face. Yes, Ahmad Bradshaw is going to go nuts on a soft Colts run D but, in the end, Peyton will prevail over Eli. It's just destined to be.
Gabe: Giants - Before the homer chants get too loud, hear me out. The Giants might be a better all-around team than the Colts. Peyton Manning is so good that covers up many of the flaws in the Colts' game, like their inability to run the ball or stop the run. The inability to run the ball is not that much of an issue. Peyton will throw the ball 110 times a game without blinking. The inability to stop the run is a huge problem, especially when facing Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. The Giants will take this game out of Eli's hands and run the ball down Indy's throat. Peyton will toss the ball a lot, but the Giants are going to pressure him and hopefully get some sacks and turnovers. There is a fun psychological aspect to this game too. If this game were resting on Eli vs. Peyton I'd take Peyton in a runaway, for the same reason I'll always beat my little brothers in Goldeneye, Monopoly, pick-up basketball, dominoes, and the Rodriguez brothers triathlon. (That consists of three games we invented; 5-hit, Chicken-ball, and Dodge-golf. Yes, that last one is exactly what you think it is. So is the first one for that matter. Let me know if you want a breakdown of the rules of Chicken-ball.) I digress, but the point is, older brothers always have an edge over younger brothers. But this game will be taken out of the Manning's hands and I think the Giants win a close game, by a field goal.
Saints(-5.5) at 49ers
Dave: Saints - I'm willing to give San Fran a mulligan for last week. I know they can't really be THAT bad. Does that mean they'll upset the Saints? Hell no. Could they make things interesting by controlling the clock with Frank Gore and letting the D bully Drew Brees? Yes. Still, it's tough to believe San Fran, with Alex Smith at QB, can match this Saints' offense if things get into a shootout. 49ers will be better on offense, just not good enough to keep this from being a 14-point Saints win.
Gabe: Saints - The 49ers gave up 31 points to the Seahawks. We can give them a pass for that because of it being the first week against a division opponent. The Saints are going to house the Niners. I think Drew Breeeeees and the Saints offense but up big numbers in the first half and then they coast in the second half. The Niners will struggle under the lights on Monday Night. Saints by 10.
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