NFC North Preview

Slowly but surely, we are plowing away at these divisional previews. Here's our look at the NFC North.

Dave:

1. Green Bay Packers: I'm basing this on call on three things: 1. Everything fell in place for the Vikings in Year 1 with Brett Favre at QB and I'm hard-pressed to believe lightning will strike twice for them in Year 2. 2. I also think the Packers' offensive line was the only thing that kept Green Bay from the Super Bowl last year and I just can't see that unit being that bad(league-worst 51 sacks allowed last year) again. 3. I'm a bit of a homer. Sue me.

I've always been one to find preseason meaningless. After all, these same Packers ran through the exhibition season like a tornado last year, not allowing a sack and looking like the second coming of the '99 Rams, and then we saw what happened once the games started to matter. This year, it's pretty much the same deal. The Packers are coming off dropping 59 points on the Super Bowl runner-up Indianapolis Colts in the third game of preseason and the media frenzy around heralding Green Bay as a Super Bowl contender has surged once again.

Now, I told you people a couple years ago that Aaron Rodgers was the real deal(granted, not on THIS site, but still) and now it looks like I am right. Rodgers is a legit Top 5 QB, with the chance to crack the Top 3 with another big year. When you throw over 4,000 yards and 30 TDs(as well as a mere 7 picks) when your offensive line is giving you no help, you are a damn good QB. This year, the Packers' swiss cheese O-Line is expected to be better. Aging tackles Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher are finally healthy(or at least, reasonably healthy) and the surprise story of camp is first round pick Bryan Bulaga, a OT out of Iowa, playing admirably enough at guard to possibly crack the starting lineup. If Rodgers gets protection, he has a bevy of options. There's emerging superstar Greg Jennings as A-Rod's top deep threat, consistent chain-mover Donald Driver opposite Jennings, and a couple of solid youngsters in Jordy Nelson and James Jones as the 3rd and 4th option. Then, there's the guy I'm most excited about in this Packers' air attack: TE Jermichael Finley. If you read my All-Breakout Team piece(and you should, if you haven't), you'll know I think this is the year Finley busts loose. He's tall(6'5), big(260lbs), with good speed and great athleticism. Rodgers has hit him frequently in the preseason and that's not going to change once the season kicks off. When the Packers aren't airing it out, they can hand it off to vastly underrated back Ryan Grant. Since 2007, only one man has more rushing yards than Grant(Adrian Peterson). He's gotten his fumbling issues in check and he's even decent catching passes out of the backfield(although that job will mainly be handled by Brandon Jackson, who is the perfect change-of-pace option for Grant, if he can stay healthy).

The defense is where I'm a bit worried. CB Charles Woodson won the Defensive Player of the Year award last year, but he's 34. The guy who is normally opposite him, Al Harris, is on the PUP list, as is safety Atari Bigby. Tramon Williams filled in admirably a couple years ago for Harris but his place in the starting lineup hurts the overall depth in the secondary. Still, the Packers can pick it with Woodson and Pro Bowl safety Nick Collins in the defensive backfield. As for the front seven, DE Johnny Jolly is gone(facing a one-year suspension) and the team tried to soften the blow by drafting 2nd rounder Mike Neal to rotate inside. The key to the Packers D-Line in Year 2 of Dom Capers' 3-4 will be last year's first round pick B.J. Raji becoming the disruptive force inside many thought he would be on Draft Day. If Raji is up to snuff, a defensive line of Raji, massive NT Ryan Pickett and pass-rushing end Cullen Jenkins looks mighty formidable. As for the linebackers, it's fight or flight time for A.J. Hawk. Hawk has been decent in his time in Green Bay, but not the dominator he was expected to be after being taken in the Top 5 a few years ago. Fellow inside linebacker Nick Barnett is a tackling machine, but has had trouble staying healthy. On the outside, Clay Matthews returns from a breakout rookie season(10 sacks). Matthews has been slowed by a hamstring injury but is expected to be ready for the regular season. Opposite Matthews will be second-year man Brad Jones, who was adequate last year but hardly a lynchpin on the outside. Matthews and Jenkins are responsible for a majority of the pass rush and with the secondary missing two key members(although rookie Morgan Burnett should fill in for Bigsby brilliantly), someone else is going to have to emerge to keep the Packers from getting bombed on.

So, this could be the year for the Packers. The offensive line has to keep their young stud QB upright and the defense has to continue to improve on their excellent performance from last year. The schedule does them no favors and certainly Minnesota won't lie down for them this year, but there is reason for optimism in Title Town. Then again, we said that last year.

2. Minnesota Vikings*: Brett Favre did what many thought was impossible last year. He came into a new team, with new receivers, fresh off of surgery on his legendary cannon arm and had the best season of his career. He made household names out of bargain bin receivers like Sidney Rice and Bernard Berrian. This time, Favre comes late into camp once again with a new ailment: his surgically-repaired ankle. Favre has always been the epitome of toughness since he came into the league, but it just seems far-fetched to have a 40-year old man put on another passing clinic coming off yet another serious injury. Eventually, Father Time catches up with you. The injury to top receiver Sidney Rice doesn't help Favre's cause. Rice could miss up to the first half of the season as he recovers from hip surgery. On top of that, electrifying second-year wideout Percy Harvin(the man who was supposed to benefit the most from Rice's absence) has been slowed by migraines. That opens the door for a couple of cagey vets. There's Bernard Berrian, who was pretty much reduced to a third option(and sometimes fourth option when Favre got TE Visanthe Shiancoe involved). Berrian has speed but has had trouble with a bad case of stone hands at times. The Vikings traded for Dolphins WR Greg Camarillo a week ago. Camarillo wasn't much of a factor with Miami and it will take him time to adjust to the new scheme(not to mention, Favre's lasers), but he could be a Greg Lewis-type fill-in if he pans out. So, Favre is going to have to put on another show with a bum ankle, his top receiver out, his second receiver fragile and his other two merely adequate. The smart call would be the Vikings leaning on all-world back Adrian Peterson for the first half of the season until the receiving core is at full strength, but as we saw last season, Favre is going to take a back seat for long. Eventually, Favre is going to audible out and try to make something out of nothing. That's where this team's downfall will be.

On the plus side, Minnesota has a nasty defense, led by the mullet master Jared Allen and The Williams Wall(Pat and Kevin) on that front line. Rounding out that vaunted Vikings defensive line will be Ray Edwards, who put on quite a show in the playoffs in the hopes of getting paid in the offseason(he didn't). Behind that front four is steady-but-oft-injured MLB E.J. Henderson and two very solid outside linebackers in Chad Greenway and Ben Leber. This front seven is fast, physical and are sure-tacklers. As for the secondary, I'm a bit more skeptical than most. CB Antione Winfield has always been able to overcome being undersized by showing good ball skills and being one of the best tackling corners in the game, but he's 33 and has had his issues with the injury bug in recent years. Opposite him will be former Eagles Pro Bowler Lito Sheppard. Sheppard's filling in for the injured Cedric Griffin, who hurt his knee in the NFC Championship game. Lito is still an adequate corner but he isn't the shutdown kind of a guy he once was. Safeties Madieu Williams and Tyrell Johnson are adequate but they aren't the type of playmakers that the Vikings had when Darren Sharper was patrolling the deep middle a couple years ago.

So, yeah, the Vikings have a lot of pass-rushing talent in that devastating front seven, but any team that gets time to throw will be able to pick apart this secondary. On offense, there's a ton of talent but also a ton of potential for turnovers. Favre's a threat to throw a handful of picks the minute he's feeling lucky and Peterson has had a chronic case of fumblitis since entering the NFL. Last year, everything bounced in Minnesota's favor until Favre killed them at the end. It seems like wishful thinking for that to happen again this year. Favre's older, cagier and a bit more hobbled and now teams won't be foolish enough to underestimate the old man. Minnesota's still a good bet for the playoffs, but a run like last year's? Doubtful.

3. Detroit Lions: This looked like more of a curveball before the preseason, when the Lions showed flashes of being a tough, young team and the Bears showed flashes of being on the clock with the #1 overall pick. Truth be told, I think Detroit and Chicago will combine win less games than Green Bay or Minnesota win individually, but the Lions seem to be more on the right track than their Windy City rivals. For one, their offense is highlighted by the Motor City Triplets(as they are known to me and only me). Matt Stafford made a few rookie mistakes last year, but showed amazing guts in that game against Cleveland(throwing the game winning TD with a busted shoulder, then coming back four days later and taking a beating from Green Bay on Thanksgiving) and there's no denying the kid has a howitzer attached to his shoulder. On the receiving end of that cannon will be Calvin Johnson. "Megatron" hasn't lived up to his press clippings as of yet, mainly because injuries have slowed him, but he's an athletic freak with great speed, solid hops and suction cups for hands. This could be his breakout season. Another young star in the making is the second of Detroit's 1st round picks this year, RB Jahvid Best. Best isn't an every-down type of back, but he's electrifying with the ball in his hands. If he continues to produce with 15-20 touches he'll get a game, the Lions become very interesting to watch going forward. The key is protecting Stafford, who was sacked 24 times in two games and played a couple of those games with a separated shoulder. If Stafford has time to throw, the Lions will step into the 21st century and actually be able to utilize a vertical passing game.

On defense, the lynchpin is 2nd overall pick Ndomukong Suh, the nasty DT from Nebraska. Suh is a disruptive presence on the interior of this Detroit front line and the attention he grabs will open things up for fellow DT Corey Williams(who had back-to-back 7 sack seasons when he last played in a 4-3 scheme in Green Bay) and former Titans DE Kyle Vanden Bosch. Former 49ers Pro Bowler Julian Peterson has lost a step or two but he's still a solid linebacker and will lead a young Lions LB core, including promising MLB DeAndre Levy. In the secondary, safety Louis Delmas made a few plays in his rookie season last year and he's going to have to make a few more to make up for this porous cornerback duo. Chris Houston has great speed but terrible coverage skills and the guy playing opposite him, Jonathan Wade, is a virtual unknown. The lack of playmakers in the secondary means Detroit will keep things just as entertaining on defense as they will when they are on offense.

The Lions are a couple years away but, for the first time in years, they have some pieces in place in the Megatron/Stafford/Best troika and guys like Suh and Delmas on defense. Jim Schwartz has made strides with this team since taking over a year ago. Are they breakout candidate? No. Could they sneak up and win 6 or 7 games this year? Sure.

4. Chicago Bears: All signs point to this being a disastourous season for the Bears. QB Jay Cutler led the league in interceptions last year and is now playing in a Mike Martz-led offense where protection(which was already terrible last year, when Cutler was sacked 35 times) will be at a minimum and Cutler will be firing wild passes constantly. The Bears didn't improve their turnstile offensive line and the running game is still a question mark. Can Matt Forte shake off his disappointing sophomore campaign? Can Chester Taylor get things going if Forte falters? Nobody really knows. Then, there's Cutler's "weapons". Devin Hester, Devin Aroshamadu, Johnny Knox and Earl Bennett are all high-ceiling guys who probably wouldn't be more than #3 wideouts on most teams. In fact, the Bears' best receiving option may be Greg Olsen, which would be great if the TE was utilized more in Martz's scheme. All of that means Cutler could very well be worse than the dreadful display he was last season.

On defense, Chicago replaced the late Gaines Adams by throwing a bucket of money at former Panthers Pro Bowl DE Julius Peppers. When motivated, Peppers is one of the game's dominant forces. Problem is, the keywords there are "when motivated". Carolina wasn't too pressed to keep Peppers because of his history of dogging it whenever he felt like it. Now, the Bears have to expect inspired play from a guy who just signed a HUGE contract. That's a recipe for disaster. Beyond Peppers, the Bears have two solid defensive pieces in DT Tommie Harris and MLB Brian Urlacher. Harris and Urlacher can be disruptive up the middle, but they are almost never healthy. Urlacher missed all of last season with a wrist injury and is already banged up in the preseason. Fellow LB Lance Briggs can make plays but he's a shell of himself after signing his big contract a couple years ago. As for the secondary, Nathan Vasher is gone and the guys in charge of shutting down the passing game are holdover Charles Tillman and youngster Zach Bowman. Bowman had 6 INTs last year and Tillman was an ace at forcing fumbles with 6. Safety Daniel Manning had 92 tackles last year, and he could be a bright spot for this defense but the key will be getting pressure up front. Chicago was in the bottom half of sacks last year and the hope is that Peppers has enough of a fire under his ass to fix that.

The Bears have all the makings of being a train wreck. Their QB, when not being a spoiled pouting baby, is the league's premier turnover machine. There isn't a receiver on this team that scares you unless Hester somehow morphs into the second coming of Torry Holt in this new offense(and, all signs point to Hester having struggles picking it up so far). The running game is suspect and the offensive line might as well be replaced with five large bricks. Bears fans are known for being testy and if Cutler and company falter again, there will be big changes this season in Chi-town.

Gabe:

I am going to skip the fantasy analysis for the rest of these because most of you have had your drafts and don't need the advice anymore. I'll be playing is straight from here on out.

1. Green Bay Packers - What do I like? The offense, especially Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Grant, and their roster of pass catchers. Rodgers is finally starting to get the love he deserves, especially from the fantasy set. Rodgers has shown that one can successfully be "the guy after the guy." Grant is great. Their tight end, Jermichael Finley, established himself as an elite go-to guy. Greg Jennings and Donald Driver are still one of the best receiving tandems in the league. If their offensive line is healthy this offense is going to be great.

On defense the only questions are in the secondary. I love their front seven, especially the linebackers. Dave touched on all of the injury issues they are having in the defensive backfield. They'll need to improve but I think they have enough to win what may turn out to be a pretty weak division.

2. Minnesota Fighting Favres - I don't like their offense. Adrian Peterson is great. He is one of the top two or three backs in the league. But...Brett Favre's ankle is hurt. I think it is going to bother him more as the season goes on. Their top receiver, Sidney Rice, is done for the year. Their no. 2, Percy Harvin, gets attacked suddenly by migraines and they never know when they'll strike. Bernard Berrian is a nice compliment receiver, but he's nobody's number 1. They just have too many offensive issues for me to put them ahead of Green Bay.

3. Detroit Lions - This team is coming up. They have a great young nucleus on offense with Matthew Stafford at quarterback, Jahvid Best and Kevin Smith at running back, and Calvin Johnson at receiver. After years of taking garbage in the draft they may have finally gotten it right these last three years.

Their defensive line might be down right nasty. Ndomukong Suh is a full grown man who obviously have no problem unceremoniously planting a veteran in the turf, even if it doesn't count. Just ask Jake Delhomme. I like the addition of Kyle Vanden Bosch as well. Like I said, this team is on the rise and is going to take a huge step forward this year.

4. Chicago Bears - This team has been in free fall for a while now. It's too bad not backing up loud mouth trash doesn't equal completions, because Jay Cutler would be a superstar. Now part of the problem is his receiving corps sucks. I guess if he could throw the ball straight up and let Devin Hester fair catch it they might do better. But Cutler's receivers aren't to blame for all of the interceptions he throws. And he is showing no signs of stopping that either. They have one nice weapon on offense in Matt Forte, but he needs to stay healthy. The defense has added some nice players but I think the offense is going to be terrible. They won't be able to do anything and they are going to lose a lot of games.