Conference Championship Picks

Eventhough I was way off on my Divisional picks, the outcomes of last week's games offered more "hmm..." than surprises. For one, no reason Baltimore should have lost to Pittsburgh after being two scores at halftime. You can point to some suspect calls(most notably, the "hold" on what would have been the go-ahead punt return TD) but that argument is moot if Flacco plays like a legit QB in the 2nd half and Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmanzadeh don't get the Roberto Duran hands at the worst possible moments.

I thought Atlanta and New England would put up more of a fight. The Pats looked like they were simply outcoached and outhustled by a Jets team that absolutely needed that win to back up a season's worth of talking coming out of the Meadowlands. The Falcons, meanwhile, never got off the team bus, and you can feel the air come out of the tires right after Tramon Williams picked off Matt Ryan and ran it back 70 yards for a touchdown to close the first half.

As for Seattle, I picked them more because I had very little faith in Chicago than it was belief that the Seahawks were the better team. Now, we sit a home win at Soldier Field from two weeks of talking ourselves into the Bears being the best team in the NFC. It's been a weird year. Here's my picks for who is going to Dallas:

Packers (-3.5) at Bears

Pick: Bears - Obviously, there's the reverse jinx in play, but also, given how hard Green Bay has had to play just to get here, isn't it possible they don't come out firing like they did in Atlanta and we're looking at something closer to the Week 17 7-3 barnburner? My mind can't comprehend a scenario where the Bears represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, but that doesn't mean Chicago is terrible. Still, if you're a Bears fan, you're relying on QB with a knack for throwing picks, playing behind a offensive line that's gotten him sacked 52 times, facing a defense that finished in the Top 2 in sacks and interceptions.....Yikes. So why do I have Chicago here? Because current weather reports have this game being played in the low 20s with snow being a possibility. Do I think that will shut down Green Bay's passing attack completely? Of course not....they play in GREEN BAY, for shit's sake! But I can see both teams feeling each other out, playing conservative for the first half, and the game becomes more a defensive struggle than a shootout. I think Green Bay still pulls this one out because all the momentum is on their side and, in a quarterback's league, you have to take Rodgers over Cutler here, but I think Chicago's D keeps them in it before a Cutler pick down the stretch seals a 3-point Packers win.

Jets (+3.5) at Steelers

Pick: Jets - Of the possible AFC Championship scenarios we were faced with last week, I knew this was going to be the hardest one to pick. I wasn't impressed with Pittsburgh last week. I thought some iffy officiating and some really costly turnovers by Baltimore put them back into a game they should have lost. The Steeler D is also a different animal with DE Aaron Smith out. The Jets, meanwhile, have shut down the two best QBs in the league, on the road, and now get Big Ben, who is a home win away from his third Super Bowl appearance in 7 years. The presence of Darrelle Revis means Roethlisberger isn't going to be connecting on bombs downfield with the same ease he had against Baltimore. For the Steelers to win, they need a big game out of Rashard Mendenhall to keep this aggressive Jets D honest. I'm going with Gang Green here because I think they'll run the ball better than Pittsburgh and the revenge factor for Santonio Holmes gives them a slight edge. So, for those scoring at home, we may be looking at the first Super Bowl ever featuring two 6 seeds. Like I said in the opening paragraphs, this has been a weird season. Tonight, it will only get weirder. Jets by 6.