The story that seems to go under the radar is that both QBs were a couple rash decisions away from not standing behind center for their current teams in the Super Bowl. Roethlisberger, as you may have heard, had quite the offseason. Embroiled in not one but two sexual assault charges, rumors were flying this past spring about the Steelers finally becoming fed up with their two-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback's troublesome excursions and were putting him on the trading block. No serious offer was ever discussed and it seems now the "reports" were mainly a scare tactic to get Big Ben's head out of the clouds. Rodgers, meanwhile, looked like a lock to be the #1 pick of the 2005 NFL Draft and staying close to home with San Francisco 49ers. However, in the last remaining days leading up to Draft Day, San Fran pulled an about-face and went with Utah wunderkind Alex Smith as their new franchise QB. Rodgers slid all the way to 24th and was the last man standing in the green room when his name was called as the latest heir apparent to Brett Favre. With Favre, as usual, undecided on when he was going to hang 'em up, Rodgers toiled on the bench behind the Packers legend and was even mentioned in trade talks with Oakland in exchange for WR Randy Moss(a report that was vehemently denied by Packers GM Ted Thompson).
So, where would these franchises be if their current faces were posing for pictures in different uniforms? Well, I'll offer up my best guesses....one question at a time.
Question: What if the Steelers trade Ben Roethlisberger before the 2010 NFL Draft?
The Roethlisberger talks never really got behind speculation. The Raiders, obviously, were interested(because they needed a QB and have a penchant for knuckleheads). Perhaps so were the Browns and Panthers. The team, however, that made the most sense was St. Louis, which needed a QB badly and had a huge trade chip in the # 1 overall pick. For argument's sake, let's say the Rams offer up the #1 pick(which would have been Sam Bradford, regardless, since "reports" were circulating that some within the Steelers organization liked Bradford a lot) and next year's first(Sure, Roethlisberger is worth more, but this was a guy facing rape accusations that was about to miss the first four games of the season. As valuable as he may be as one of the 5 or 10 best QBs in football, it goes without saying that there was risk involved in acquiring Ben Roethlisberger).
So, the Steelers, now picking first in 2010, take Bradford(although imagine a Steelers defensive line with Aaron Smith, Casey Hampton and Ndomukong Suh.....scary), the Heisman winner out of Oklahoma coming off a tumultuous final season with the Sooners that saw him blow out his shoulder not once but twice. Bradford sits the bench his first year because there's no way the Steelers put someone coming off two shoulder surgeries behind an offensive line as bad as Pittsburgh's(Roethlisberger's size and elusiveness has overshadowed just how horrible this Steeler O-line is. It's atrocious. If Bradford makes opening day starter in Pittsburgh as a rookie, he becomes the next David Carr. I'd bet my life on it. Bradford just doesn't have the size to take the punishment Ben has taken over the years in Pittsburgh. Now, some of Ben's punishment is due to him taking too long getting rid of the ball but, oddly enough, his strength in getting the ball while he's getting hit or his ability to shake off tacklers had led to a lot of the big plays Ben has famously made....like the Santonio Holmes TD that won him the Super Bowl against Arizona. Bradford's not 6'6 260 pounds and, while he showed some toughness in lasting a full season with the Rams, I don't like his chances lining up against a much worse offensive line). Meanwhile, in St. Louis, the Rams drop all four games Roethlisberger misses due to suspension, yet still finish 7-9 because Roethlisberger makes them that much better in a weak NFC West. Assuming the Rams suffer the same fate with Ben that they did with Bradford, the Steelers would be picking in 2011 where St. Louis finds themselves now: 15th. That puts Pittsburgh in the running for a tackle like, say, Mississippi State's Derek Sherrod or Wisconsin's Gabe Carimi or maybe they go corner and take a guy like Brandon Harris out of The U.
As for the Roethlisberger-less/Charlie Batch-led Steelers in 2010, if Batch remains whole all season, the Steelers have enough talent to eek into the playoffs as a wild card. That means the division goes to Baltimore instead of Pittsburgh, and the Ravens end up facing the Jets in Round 2(after their first round bye) instead of having to go into Heinz Field and face the Steelers. I'll give the edge to Baltimore to beat New York and then, subsequently, New England(who would beat a Batch-led Steelers team at home) and we might be looking at a Ravens-Packers Super Bowl(pending the results of "What If?" scenario #2) that inevitably forces me(a Packers fan) and my friend Carlos(a diehard Ravens fan) to watch the Super Bowl three area codes from each other to avoid the possibility of a brawl not unlike the police brutality scene in "The Fighter". Bradford takes over in 2011 and his precision passing combined with an arsenal of Mike Wallace, Heath Miller and Hines Ward makes Steelers fans happy, but ultimately makes them miss Big Ben due to Bradford's lack of postseason success. As for the Rams in 2011 in beyond, they own the West for the next few years as the Roethlisberger becomes the only legit QB in a weak NFC West. He makes a few playoff appearances but the overall lack of talent on the Rams roster keeps him from the elusive third ring he would be playing for next Sunday. Both teams end up happy, but probably not nearly as successful as they currently are.
Question #2: What if the 49ers take Aaron Rodgers instead of Alex Smith?
This was one of the few under-the-radar draft blunders that, looking back now, has emerged into a "What the fuck were they thinking?" now that we've seen what both quarterbacks can do. It would be one thing if Rodgers was an out-of-nowhere nobody that the Packers reached for at 24 in 2005 that became a superstar after finally getting his shot. That wasn't the case. Rodgers was a stud at Cal(something Niners suits should have known given their proximity) and had the momentum as the #1 pick up until the final hours when Smith charmed San Francisco with his big brain and upside. The 2005 Draft was terrible anyway. Of the 32 first round picks, four have developed into stars(Rodgers, Roddy White, DeMarcus Ware, Logan Mankins), a few others became quality starters that have kind of flamed out(Antrel Rolle, Braylon Edwards, Ronnie Brown, Shawne Merriman, Cadillac Williams and Jammal Brown) and a couple have been serviceable(Heath Miller and, over the last two years, Cedric Benson). So, San Francisco might have been fucked either way because, while Rodgers has become a very good QB in Green Bay, he wouldn't have the luxury of being mentored by a guy like Favre and eventually becoming a starter with an immense amount of talent around him(Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Ryan Grant, Jermichael Finley, James Jones, etc). That's not to discredit Rodgers' accomplishments with the Packers, but it would be foolish to think he doesn't owe some of his success to his supporting cast.
That being said, Rodgers would still have done better than Smith did. For one, Rodgers is a more accurate thrower and, while both guys had decent mobility, Rodgers has proven less likely to panic when the rush is coming(at least this season) than Smith has over his career. Still, what happens if Rodgers is taken is a bit harder to sketch out than the Roethlisberger scenario. My take is Rodgers struggles early on, mainly because of the lack of talent around him and lack of a mentor, but also because there's no embarrassing draft downward spiral to help develop that chip on his shoulder. Rodgers would be going from a guy who wants to prove people wrong and waiting for his chance to do so behind a legendary QB to an overpaid rookie forced to turn around a once-proud franchise with nothing around him. Sure, once the Niners got some talent(assuming they make the same picks they made under the Smith era and end up with the likes of Frank Gore, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree), Rodgers would probably hit his stride in a bad division, but would he be making a Super Bowl in his sixth year? Highly doubtful. There's no telling how much of Rodgers' drive was built up from sitting for hours in the green room as well as the Favre unretirement fiasco in 2008. When Favre came back and went to the Jets, you could tell there was a part of Aaron that wanted to show up his old teacher(and statistically, he did, it's just the wins didn't back up the numbers, though both teams missed the playoffs). In San Fran, Rodgers doesn't have that same motivation(unless he becomes obsessed with showing up the legends of Joe Montana and Steve Young, guys he grew up idolizing growing up in California) to go out and kill it every night. He just becomes a guy on a struggling team waiting for management to build a franchise around him. In other words, he becomes a slightly more successful version of Smith.
As for Smith, given how teams passed up on Rodgers in '05, I'd like to think the same slide would occur in Alex's case unless you can be sold on him ending up in Cleveland(picking 3rd and, thus, passing on Edwards for Smith), Tampa Bay(5th, who inevitably took Williams, the ROTY in '05) or Tennessee(6th, famously taking Pacman Jones....I'd like to think Smith goes here if given a do-over, but more likely, the Titans opt for Rolle or maybe even Merriman). So, let's say, Smith and Rodgers switch spots and Smith is now Favre's successor. Does he succeed? Probably not. For one, given his small hands and lack of arm strength, Smith would probably struggle throwing into the gusting winds of Green Bay during the winter months. If Smith wasn't lighting it up in sunny San Francisco, I can't see him throwing for 4,000 yards annually in Wisconsin. There's also the Favre factor. Thompson and head coach Mike McCarthy saw enough of Rodgers in practice over the years to, depending on who you believe, strongly coerce Favre into retiring in 2008. If Favre unretires like he inevitably did, would Smith be a good enough reason to trade Brett like the Packers eventually did? I don't think so. Assuming they do though, I see Smith struggling on the frozen tundra. For all his smarts and ability to pick up whatever Favre would be putting down, the fact of the matter is the boy struggled handling snaps because he had baby hands. He also doesn't have Rodgers' zip on deep throws. So, if Smith gets his shot in '08 to lead the Packers, even with a solid supporting cast and the same chip on the shoulder that pushed A-Rod, it's hard to believe Smith thrives in Green Bay. Inevitably, Favre leaves, Smith takes over and, much like Dallas in the post-Aikman years, the Packers search for years to find their QB.
At the end of the day, both questions are pretty much moot points. Rodgers is starring for Green Bay while San Francisco will be looking to take another QB this April while Niners fans will spend next Sunday watching the one that got away, and St. Louis and Pittsburgh aren't losing any sleep over not making what would have been the biggest trade of the last 10 years. Still, for all the stories that will be told over the next two weeks, the most interesting one involves the two guys who almost weren't here to tell it.
No comments:
Post a Comment