Week 12 Picks

Thanksgiving football didn't go as planned for Team Dave as he wound up getting stuffed like a Kardashian sister in the locker room at Gund Arena after a shootaround to the tune of a big 0-3 squadoosh. Baby Felix Trinidad, meanwhile, starts off today's events up two, thanks to the Packers throttling of the Lions and Baltimore outpointing San Fran on Thursday.

On to the rest of this week's games

THIS WEEK

Gabe: 2-1

Dave: 0-3

SEASON

Dave: 81-74-8

Gabe: 73-82-8

Vikings (+9.5) at Falcons

Dave: Falcons - Truth be told, Minnesota's chances of beating Atlanta in the Georgia Dome were bleak even before Adrian Peterson was ruled out. Now, with AP sidelined, the Vikings' running game is in the hands of Brian Leonard's less effective twin, Toby Gerhart. I'd be surprised if Christian Ponder and company manage to muster any points and the Viking defense has been picked apart so many times recently that anything less than a 21-point W by the Dirty Birds would surprise me. Falcons by 24.

Gabe: Falcons

Browns (+7) at Bengals

Dave: Bengals - Despite being up against one of the best defenses in the NFL without his top wideout, Andy Dalton still saw fit to drop 373 yards on the Ravens last week in a close 31-24 loss to Baltimore. What does that have to do with their game against Cleveland this week? Well, Cleveland's horrible and Dalton gets A.J. Green back so, by the laws of math, Dalton should be expected to do significantly better this week. While it might be statistically impossible for "The Red Rifle" to top his near-400 yard performance, I'm sure Dalton and the gang will accept a W over the floundering Dawg Pound as a modest improvement. Bengals by 10.

Gabe: Bengals

Bucs (+3) at Titans

Dave: Titans - I've lost hope in the 2011 Bucs. Josh Freeman throws too many picks, LaGarrette Blount is too hit-or-miss, their young receivers have hit a sophomore slump and the defense has gone down the tubes. Matt Hasselbeck might be a bit banged up for Tennessee but I think either he or Jake Locker is capable of putting up numbers against this Bucs D. I wish I could say the same thing with confidence about the possibly-abducted Chris Johnson. Titans by 9.

Gabe: Bucs

Panthers (-3) at Colts

Dave: Panthers - Cam Newton needs a big game here to stay in the Rookie of the Year hunt and I think he'll do so against a horrid Colts team. On a different note though, if Indy played LSU on a neutral field right now, how bad would the Tigers beat the Colts? I say it would be at least 31-0. Panthers by 13.

Gabe: Panthers

Cardinals (+2.5) at Rams

Dave: Rams - Honestly, I just flipped a coin here. Picking between Arizona and St. Louis and is like asking "Who's hotter: Oprah Winfrey or Rosie O'Donnell?". Nobody wins and nobody cares.

Gabe: Rams

Bills (+9) at Jets

Dave: Jets - The last time these two teams met, Gang Green thumped Buffalo and sent them cascading into a tailspin that dropped them from sneaky Wild Card contender to probably picking top 10 in the Draft again. So, if the Jets can open a can on the Bills in Buffalo a month ago, what would make anyone think things will be different in the Meadowlands now that Buffalo has given up on life and Ryan Fitzpatrick threw out his arm counting all that money from his new deal? Jets by 10.

Gabe: Bills

Texans (-6) at Jaguars

Dave: Texans - How psyched are you for the epic showdown between Blaine Gabbert and Matt Leinart? The next month or so is make-or-break time for Leinart. If he can prove to be somewhat competent over the next 6 or 7 games as the starter for a legit contender, he could stand to make some money this offseason as a free agent QB with some starter experience and his career ahead of him. The question with Leinart has always been desire. Does he want to be Aaron Rodgers or Brody Jenner? Is he reading defenses or reading Cosmo? Lucky for Matt, he gets the lowly Jags as well as possibly the return of all-world wideout Andre Johnson. Even if Leinart flops, Arian Foster won't. Texans by 17.

Gabe: Texans

Bears (+3) at Raiders

Dave: Raiders - Oh, if you loved Leinart vs. Gabbert, you'll jump for joy over Carson Palmer vs. Caleb Hanie! Hanie emerged as an intriguing prospect after nearly leading the Bears to a comeback win in the NFC Championship against Green Bay when Jay Cutler allegedly went down with a knee injury. Now, Cutler is actually out with a busted thumb and Hanie gets his moment in the sun. My issue isn't so much Hanie as it is the offensive line's ability to protect Hanie. It took Chicago a year and a half to figure out how to keep Cutler upright and he gets the ball out way quicker than Hanie does. On the flip side, Palmer is getting more and more adjusted with his new sqaud, as we saw last week against Minnesota. The Bears D will keep this from being a rout and Matt Forte will keep Oakland's D honest but it comes down to who do you have faith in making a play when it matters, Hanie or Palmer? And my money's on Carson. Raiders by 6.

Gabe: Bears

Redskins (+3) at Seahawks

Dave: Seahawks - It pains me that I will have spent three paragraphs on games featuring Gabbert vs Leinart, Hanie vs. Palmer and now Rex Grossman/John Beck vs. Tarvaris Jackson/Charlie Whitehurst. I've seen better matchups on the undercards of Celebrity Boxing. The Redskins' best strategy is to ride out this season with their two-headed crap sandwich at QB and hope the teams ahead of them in the Draft play better so Washington can move up and grab a Matt Barkley or a Robert Griffin III....or a more likely scenario: make a play for Peyton Manning. Seattle's tough to beat at home, even tougher to beat when you're the Redskins. Seahawks by 9.

Gabe: Seahawks

Patriots (-3) at Eagles

Dave: Eagles - Oh, imagine if Mike Vick has to miss more time and it's Vince Young, not Vick, who turns the Eagles season around and gets them into the playoffs. We might see Mike Vick get Mike Vick'd by Vince Young(though in this scenario, Mike Vick would be Kevin Kolb and Vince Young would be Mike Vick.....I just confused myself.). I'm not sure why I picked the Eagles except that I typed "Eagles" when I meant to write "Patriots" and figured I'd stick with it on account that it might my subconscious telling me something. Philly does have the defense to give Tom Brady and company fits and the Eagles' running is superior to New England's. If Vince Young can lead the charge and beat the Giants, it's not unrealistic to think he can top the Pats too....which would make for an awesome story these next few weeks.

Gabe: Patriots

Broncos (+5.5) at Chargers

Dave: Broncos - I've been saying "A loss here should end the Norv Turner era" for weeks now, and it's beginning to sound redundant. That being said, a loss here should end the Norv Turner era in San Diego. Really, what more do you need to make a case to clean house here? The Chargers are struggling yet again to win a division they should be mopping the floor with year-after-year. This week, they get Touchdown Jesus and the Broncos. Look, I don't know whether Tim Tebow is a viable starting QB. I just know that he knows how to win and, really, that's all that matters. Phillip Rivers has all the yards and the touchdowns and he'll have plenty of third-place finishes to go with them. Timmy has a chance to part the AFC West seas and get Denver a playoff spot and the perennially-cursed Bolts aren't going to stand in the way of Tebow and his divine powers. Broncos by 3.

Gabe: Chargers

Steelers (-10.5) at Chiefs

Dave: Steelers - I talked myself into my wife's Chiefs for about 2.5 seconds because they can get to the QB and, at home and feeling desperate, they might force Big Ben to make some crucial mistakes and pull off the upset with defense and special teams. Then, I realized one fundamental problem with that theory: The Chiefs' starting QB is Tyler Palko. Even if KC's D is lights out against the Steelers, the offense is going to have to make enough plays to keep Pittsburgh at arm's length. I just don't see that happening. If there's one saving grace for Chiefs fans though, next year you'll have Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry back as well as possibly Matt Barkley if Kyle Orton doesn't screw around and get you a few garbage time W's. Steelers by 21.

Gabe: Steelers

Giants (+7.5) at Saints

Dave: Giants - Emotions will be running high for Big Blue coming off the tragic death of RB Brandon Jacobs this past Sunday......(waits.....checks newspaper......feels sheepish)....wait, Jacobs isn't dead? Then, who was the cadaver in the "Jacobs #27" jersey last week against Philly? The Giants' sudden lack of a running game not withstanding, I think these two teams are close enough that neither team will win by more than a touchdown. Could I see Drew Brees, with a little more than a week to prepare, lighting up this porous Giants secondary? Sure, but that would require some excellent protection from this N.O. offensive line against the best pass rush in football. I think this one's a shootout with both teams lacking a running game and, with the Giants needing this one bad, I see Gabe's boys pulling off the upset.

Gabe: Giants

Thanksgiving Picks

Week 11 was a nice bounceback week for Team Dave, as he increased his season lead to 10 after besting Team Gabe by two. Both men take 2-0 Thursday night records into this week's tripleheader so here's the website you should be most thankful for's take on Thanksgiving meat and potatoes.


LAST WEEK


Dave: 10-4
Gabe: 8-6


SEASON


Dave: 81-71-8
Gabe: 71-81-8


Packers (-6.5) at Lions


Dave: Lions - This is the game that Detroit has had circled all season. This is their Super Bowl and, after having to pull out the big guns to overwhelm Carolina, the momentum is on their side after Green Bay struggled to pull away from Tampa Bay. James Starks, the Pack's best runner, will probably sit this one, which means the Packers will need Ryan Grant to find his 2009 version for the run game to be less than stagnant. My money is still on Green Bay to steal this one and remain perfect but I think it comes down to the wire with Matt Stafford throwing a pick on the final drive to Tramon Williams. Pack by 6.


Gabe: Packers - Dave is right, this is the game the Lions have had circled on their calendar. This game is also the one that all of the talking haircuts have made their sexy pick for a Packers' loss. I don't see it happening. The Packers are firing on all cylinders. The Lions have a mean pass rush, but Aaron Rodgers isn't intimidated by that. He has all of the good things you want in a quarterback and none of the bad stuff, like the questionable decision making of Tony Romo, or the rapiness of Big Ben. The Lions are young and are just dumb enough to think they can win this game, but it ain't happening. The Packers show the upstarts that they been here befo', and win by 10.


Dolphins (+7) at Cowboys


Dave: Cowboys - As much a tradition as pumpkin pie and turkey is Dallas' brand of football on Thanksgiving day. This year, we get to calm down from the thrills of watching two real QB's in the early game in Matt Stafford and Aaron Rodgers by being subjected to two lames named Tony Romo and Matt Moore. Both teams are riding three-game win streaks. The key matchup here will be OLB DeMarcus Ware vs. OT Jake Long. If Ware can't continue to wreak havoc on backfields by blowing by the game's best offensive tackle, then this could be a tighter game than we expect. Miami's secondary is actually better than you think, too, so Romo's a threat for 3-INT game here. I think Dallas relies on DeMarco Murray and bores the crowd to 10-point win over a suddenly-motivated Phins squad.


Gabe: Cowboys - Now that they Dolphins have played their way right out of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes they seem to want to win games. Not today. On their best day, I'm not sure Dallas isn't the third or fourth best team in the league. The problem is, getting Dallas to play their best is about as difficult as getting Dave to buy a Young Money mixtape. Despite that, I think Dallas will play well against Miami. Despite the wins, the Phins still aren't good. Dallas has all of the weapons and I say they take an 11 point win.


Niners (+3) at Ravens


Dave: Niners - A win coupled with a Packers loss keeps San Fran's chances of snatching homefield advantage in the NFC away from Green Bay's clutches. The Niners haven't allowed a rushing TD all season and running the ball seems to be the only thing Baltimore does well consistantly. Ray Lewis might miss this game as well, further hindering one of the game's best defenses. I smell a defensive struggle here that comes down to the final drive but Jersey Joe Flacco doesn't come up big like he did against Pittsburgh. Niners by 3.


Gabe: Ravens - The Ravens play their best football when they are up against tough opponents. Right now the toughest opponents in the NFL not named the Green Bay Packers are the San Francisco 49ers. The Ravens will be motivated and looking to get on a winning streak. Also, let's not forget one of my favorite themes, the Niners have to travel across the country and play this game on really short rest. This will be a hard hitting smash-mouth game, but I think the Ravens pull it out, by 4.

Fake NBA Headline of The Week: LBJ to Fans "Stop Calling Me Pippen"

(Note: With the 2011 NBA season in jeopardy, we here at BoomRoastedSports thought we'd fill the void by coming up with our own pro basketball stories until the players and owners can come up with some of their own that doesn't involve millionaires and billionaires fighting over money. These are fake stories based off nothing but our own creativity, so please don't try to take it and run with it when we post "Chris Paul Traded To Bobcats" in two months.)

LeBron James came into the NBA in 2003 with the expectations that he will, not might, be the next Michael Jordan. However, the man known as "King James" isn't bothered by his inability thus far to live up to the lofty goals of replacing His Airness. Instead, the 26-year old former MVP has other reasons to be frustrated.

"Every time I touch the ball, all I hear is 'Scot-tie Pip-pen!' from the crowd. It's getting a little annoying." James said after his Miami Heat lost 121-111 to the Atlanta Hawks Tuesday night. The close loss to the Hawks last night still gives M-I-A the 2nd best record in the East at 7-3 behind the surprising 8-3 Bucks and fourth best in the league behind the 11-2 Warriors and the 10-2 defending champion Dallas Mavericks. "I mean, Scottie Pippen was named one of the 50 Greatest Players in NBA history and it's an honor for my name to be paired with his but I'd like to think the home fans would be better than that."

Yes, that's right. Fans IN MIAMI have been not-so-subtly alluding to James being a second fiddle on a Heat team that came thisclose to an NBA championship. Part of the reaction may be due to the fact that James' teammate, Dwayne Wade, is the early season front-runner for the MVP with an awesome 33 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists per game stat line through 10 games for the 1st place Heat. After all, this IS Miami-Wade County, a fact not lost on LBJ: "D-Wade has made it known for years that this is HIS house. I get that, but I've always considered me and Dwayne equals. These people pay their money to see us play. They can do what they want, but I find some of the chants disturbing."

Being compared to "Flash" was something "The Akron Hammer" had to anticipate when he agreed to come to South Beach along with Chris Bosh last summer. However, James said there was a couple of examples of fan displeasure that went too far. "I saw a lady in the front row with a huge sign that said 'Delonte's better!' in big bold letters with a smiley face and a greater than sign above my name and, at first, I chuckled. Then, I looked closer and realized it was my mom."

The chants haven't been lost on James' high-priced teammates either. "It's unfortunate," said Wade, "You know, he could have just as easily went to New York last summer and lit up the Garden every night. He chose to come here and be a part of something that could be a big part of NBA history. Regardless of how I'm playing, LeBron's my boy and I wouldn't wish that kind of treatment on my worst enemy, let alone my teammate." Chris Bosh was a bit more coy: "I mean, at least the fans are recognizing him, good or bad. They care enough to scream at him. I get mistaken for Lamar Odom at least three times a week."

Perhaps, the All-Star forward will get a bit more recognition when the Heat take on Bosh's former team, the Toronto Raptors, on Friday night. As for James and the Pippen comparisons, Charles Barkley had a different take on things: "LeBron's no Scottie Pippen! Scottie got six rings! LeBron's got none! The fans need to be chanting 'Karl Malone' at his ass!"

Or perhaps "Charles Barkley".

Week 11 Picks cont....

Both of us showed our Thursday night mettle yet again by rolling with Touchdown Jesus to answer our prayers against the Jets. My Tebow-ner is riding high right now.

On to the rest of Week 11

Bucs (+14) at Packers

Dave: Bucs - Perhaps it's my infamous pessimism that's waiting for the other shoe to drop on my 2011 Green Bay Packers, but this game makes me nervous on a couple fronts. One, the game is sandwiched in between the league's bright idea of having Green Bay play three games in the span of 10 days, with the last of the three being a much-anticipated divisional showdown with Detroit on Thanksgiving. The idea that the Packers might be looking ahead to that game with a potential clinch on the line isn't farfetched, and that would be foolish on the Pack's part because Tampa Bay is still a wildly talented team even if everything is falling apart for them so far. Secondly, Aaron Rodgers has three 3-INT games in his career. Two of them came against Green Bay, most notably a couple years ago when A-Rod and company lost to the then-winless Bucs in the New Sombrero. It's not inconceivable that the Packers roll here but 14 points is a lot for a team that has every reason to put on the brakes. Pack by 10.

Gabe: Green Bay – To be the best you gotta beat the best. The Packers are the best and until someone beats them, I’m picking them. I think 14 is a lot of points, but the Packers, at home, could easily turn this into a 20+ point rout.

Jaguars (+1) at Browns

Dave: Jaguars - How's that sleeper buzz working for you, Cleveland? With nothing left on offense and the defense still rebuilding, the Browns aren't a sleeper anymore. They're in a coma. Meanwhile, the Jags are a sneaky team that are better than you think. They beat Tennessee, who might still win the AFC South with Houston losing players left and right. They gave Pittsburgh all they can handle and notched wins over Baltimore(who swept the Steelers) and Cincinatti(who holds the lead for the first Wild Card spot). Blaine Gabbert is a couple years and a couple weapons away from being a star but he's a few more steps ahead than Colt McCoy is, so I'll give him the nod by 3.

Gabe: Cleveland – Umm, I could not give less of a fuck about this game. I’ll take the Browns because they are at home.

Panthers (+7) at Lions

Dave: Lions - Remember when Cam Newton lit up Arizona in Week 1 and we all said "Why Can't Tim Tebow Be More Like Cam Newton?". Well, now that Touchdown Jesus has double the wins Cam-Cam has in just five starts(to Newton's 9 starts), when do we get to ask "Why Can't Cam Newton Be More Like Tim Tebow?". The Newton-Tebow debate is another issue for another day, but it's looking like the #1 overall pick has hit the rookie wall. That's not a good look with the Suh World Order in town looking to stay afloat before hosting Green Bay in four days. My money is on Detroit overlooking Carolina a little and this being a shootout in the first half before the Lions dig in their heels and rout the Panthers. Lions by 14.

Gabe: Detroit – This is an interesting match-up, because of the quarterbacks. In a lot of ways, Carolina is where Detroit was a few years ago. I’m curious to see how Cam Newton reacts the first time he is crushed by the Lions’ defensive line. I think Cam plays OK, but the Panthers still lose, but 9.

Bills (+2) at Dolphins

Dave: Bills - This is perhaps the biggest hoax of a spread all season. The Bills may have fallen from grace after getting trounced the last two weeks but let's not forget that this is the same Dolphins team that was the favorite in the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes not too long ago. The Dolphins may be going up as the Bills are going down but I think both teams meet at the middle and Buffalo escapes with a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Bills by 6.

Gabe: Miami – The Dolphins have strung together a couple of wins after not being able to get anything done at the beginning of the year. The Bills are going the opposite direction; they got a couple of surprising wins at the beginning of the year, but now they are settling down to where they should be. A cold weather team playing in warm weather is always a concern for me. I think Miami wins by a touchdown.

Raiders (+1.5) at Vikings

Dave: Raiders - This game means more for Oakland than it does for Minnesota as a loss here would kill their chances of finally pulling ahead in the AFC West. Once the Vikings give Christian Ponder a receiver or two, they might have something special because Ponder looks to be the goods. Right now, however, the Vikes are a team on a downward spiral and, defensively, they aren't going to be able to stop Oakland with the way Michael Bush is running and with Carson Palmer continuing to shake the rust off. Palmer goes for 300 and a couple scores and Raiders win by 10.

Gabe: Minnesota – Carson Palmer seems to be progressing in the Raiders’ offense, but the strength of Minnesota’s team is their defense, especially the line. The Vikings offense is showing signs of life with Christian Ponder. I think Carson Palmer is in for a rough day. Minny wins by a touchdown.

Cowboys (-7) at Redskins

Dave: Cowboys - Do I really need to go into detail on this one?

Gabe: Dallas – Everything points to Dallas winning this game. Dallas is clearly more talented and better coached. The Redskins have been a mess all year. My one concern is that this is a rivalry game and anything can happen in the NFC East. I’ll go with my head and say the Cowboys win by 10.

Bengals (+6.5) at Ravens

Dave: Ravens - For some reason, the Ravens seem to only get up for games against legit opponents. Jets? Stomped them. Steelers? Swept them. Houston? Beat them. The bottom feeders, however, have Baltimore's number. Jags? Didn't bother showing up. Cardinals? Barely escaped after going down 24-3. Seahawks? Couldn't stop Marshawn Lynch. This week, though, the Ravens could get a leg up on the Bengals and the rest of the division by regaining the top spot in the North with a W against an A.J. Green-less Cincy squad. CB Leon Hall is also out for Cincy so Joe Flacco really has no excuse to not carve up this Bengals squad. Make or break game for Baltimore, so I'll say they win by 9.

Gabe: Baltimore – Baltimore gets up for the good teams and plays like shit against the bad teams. So the question is, are the Bengals good or bad? I think they are on the way to being good, and someday they will be very good….but not today. The Ravens are going to be angry and looking for a win. I say they get it, by double digits.

Seahawks (+3) at Rams

Dave: Seahawks - I'm not sure what happened to this Rams team. Maybe Sam Bradford hit a sophomore slump. Maybe the Brandon Lloyd trade was too little, too late. Maybe Steve Spagnuolo isn't the second coming of Bill Belichick but this team looks pathetic. Seattle is equally unbearable but if forced to choose, I'll take the points.

Gabe: St. Louis – Both of these teams have generally played terribly this year. I think the Rams at least have some potential and do a couple of things well. I take the Rams because of that and because they are at home.

Cardinals (+10.5) at Niners

Dave: Niners - On the bright side for Arizona, they would probably struggle running the ball even if they weren't facing the best run defense in the league. Injuries are going to limit an already limited offense for the Cardinals with QB Kevin Kolb and RB Beanie Wells both slowed with foot and knee ailments, respectively. The Niners will serve up a healthy dose of Frank Gore and the Niners D will find ways to blanket Larry Fitzgerald and pitch a shutout.

Gabe: San Francisco – A team that could easily be undefeated versus a team that starts a guy named Skelton at QB? I’ll take the Niners to win big.

Titans (+6) at Falcons

Dave: Falcons - The Titans could have used the $53 million they agreed to pay Chris Johnson to open up a chain of TCBY franchises and found someone who could be a more productive runner than CJ2K has been this season. It says something about Matt Hasselbeck that he's still able to put up good numbers despite the fact that he lost his best receiver a month ago and his franchise back is in the Missing Persons list. This week, Hasselbeck is going to have to match Matt Ryan and the Falcons have too much balance on offense to lose a shootout to a Tennessee team with not much of an arsenal. Dirty Birds by 10.

Gabe: Tennessee – Atlanta can’t seem to get any traction this season. They should have beaten New Orleans last week and if they had I think they would have had some momentum. But they didn’t beat the Saints, mostly because of that stupid shouldonly-be-done-in-Madden-go-for-it-on-4^th-down-in-overtime-in-your-own-territory call. That being said, I think the Falcons get the win, but by 4 or less.

Chargers (+3.5) at Bears

Dave: Bears - With declining San Diego and Oakland on its agenda for the next two weeks and Detroit having to face the defending champs on a short week this Thursday, am I the only one who can see a scenario where the Bears steal the Wild Card spot away from the Lions and kill all the hope that's been fostered in Motown? Phillip Rivers has struggled all season for the Bolts and his prospects of throwing into the crisp winds of Chi-town aren't promising. The Bears are going to dominate this game with strong D and a lot of Matt Forte. Hopefully, this puts the nail in the coffin for the Norv Turner era in San Diego. Bears by 13.

Gabe: Chicago – The Chargers have no chance. They are a mess, especially when it comes to motivation. Chicago is flying right now. I think Devin Hester takes one to the house and the Bears win by 10.

Eagles (+4.5) at Giants

Dave: Giants - I'm sorry, you want me to bank on Vince Young turning around the Eagles' season against the best pass rush in the league on national television in a game the Giants need to keep Dallas at arms length for the division crown? You'd have a better chance getting me to agree to be the bounceback opponent for Cain Velasquez. The Eagles are done for and, hopefully, Andy Reid joins Norv Turner on the "Coaches Who Are Finally Fired Three Years Too Late" list. In a weird way, I can see Eli blowing this one by trying to be a hero against a good Philly secondary but I think Coughlin plays it smart and lets Brandon Jacobs bowls over a poor Eagles run defense. Giants by 10.

Gabe: N.Y. Giants – The last time they met, the Giants got an unexpected 13-point victory. This time the Eagles will be without Mike Vick and will have to start Vince Young at quarterback. This plays right into the Giants hands. Their pass rushers will be able to pin their ears back and get after Young. I don’t see the Eagles being able to move the ball very well on offense. I think Eli does just enough to cover and the Giants win by 9. And remember….you can’t spell “elite” with Eli.

Chiefs (+14.5) at Patriots

Dave: Patriots - The Patriots are coming off a big win against.......you know what, I'm going to skip the pre-amble. The Chiefs have lost two straight and are starting Tyler Palko in his first ever start.....on national television.....against the best team in the AFC. Tyler Palko.....need I say more?

Gabe: New England – Kansas City plays well against bad teams, but gets exposed against good teams. Also, Tom Brady does not lose in primetime. New England gets the big win and puts a strangle hold on the AFC East.

Week 11 Picks

In our weekly picks showdown, Gabe has owned the month of November. Last week, he followed up his 9-4-1 with a season-best 11-5 performance to dwindle the gap to 8 with 7 weeks to play. Like the great Pervis Ellison though, I'm never nervous.

On to tonight's epic Broncos-Jets tilt:

LAST WEEK:

Gabe: 11-5

Dave: 6-10

SEASON:

Dave: 71-67-8

Gabe: 63-75-8

Jets (-6.5) at Broncos

Dave: Broncos - You'd like to think this game would be right in Gang Green's wheelhouse since they are good at stopping the one thing Denver actually does on offense: run the ball. However, it's hard to have much faith in this Jets team in general, let alone the fact they'll be travelling across country on a short week to face one of the most unorthodox offensive units in the history of football. Denver's offense makes Army's offense look like the Run N' Gun and, eventually, that constant pounding combined with the thin Denver air and the short rest will wear down this Jets defense. It's hard to bet against Touchdown Jesus given what he's done since taking over three weeks ago, so I'll roll with the Broncos to, at the very least, keep it under a touchdown.

Gabe: Broncos - Easy. The Broncos aren't good, but they have an identity. They know who they are and what they do. But, the BIG reason I think the Broncos get the outright win the Jets are playing this game on a terribly short week. Their last game ended at midnight and now they have to travel to Denver three days later. Give me Denver to win by a touchdown.

Week 10 Picks cont.

Both of the boys benefited from the cascading Chargers' misfortunes by picking the Raiders to beat the Bolts on Thursday night.





On to the rest of Week 10!!





Saints (+1) at Falcons

Dave: Falcons - A couple things to consider here. One, the Saints are wildly inconsistent. Two, the Falcons have a better flow to their offense now that Julio Jones is back and are more likely to be able to control the game and keep Drew Brees off the game with their superior running game and the fact that they're playing at home. This seems like the perfect game for New Orleans to blow. Falcons by 3 in a shootout.

Gabe: Saints

Steelers (-4.5) at Bengals

Dave: Steelers - It's hard to like Andy Dalton's chances in his first start against this Pittsburgh D when the Bengals haven't played anyone all season. Even with LaMarr Woodley out, the Steelers are going to pressure "The Red Rifle" into some bad decisions. Also, Google Big Ben's record in his home state of Ohio.....it's something like 259-1. Steelers by 10.

Gabe: Steelers

Rams (+2.5) at Browns

Dave: Rams - This is pretty much a gut call here. Sam Bradford got some of the rust off last week and Steven Jackson is running well. Conversely, the Browns don't have much on either side of the ball. I think this one will be low-scoring, but I'll give Nellyville the nod by 6.

Gabe: Rams

Bills (+5.5) at Cowboys

Dave: Bills - I don't think I could like Buffalo more this week. Dallas struggled with lowly Seattle last week and now they are once again without Miles Austin. Buffalo needs this one to stay above water in a tough AFC East and I just don't have faith in Tony Romo being able to in a shootout with Ryan Fitzpatrick.....which should tell you all you need to know about Tony Romo. Bills by 7.

Gabe: Cowboys

Jaguars (-3) at Colts

Dave: Jaguars - Give me one reason to take the Colts to win the rest of the season now that they have a one-game lead in the Luck Sweepstakes. Seriously, give me one good reason. Jags by 13.

Gabe: Colts

Broncos (+3) at Chiefs

Dave: Chiefs - Amazing how a loss to a previously-winless team can change your mindset about a team, because I seriously mulled this one over for awhile. The Broncos find ways to win with Touchdown Jesus at quarterback. It may not be pretty but they win. Still, it's hard for me to picture KC losing back-to-back fall games at Arrowhead with the division still in their grasp. Chiefs by 9.

Gabe: Chiefs

Redskins (+4) at Dolphins

Dave: Redskins - It has to say something about the Redskins that they are four-point dogs on the road against a team that just got its first win last week. I have no faith in Washington beating Miami either but something tells me this comes down to a field goal so I'll take the foolish Phins(for blowing a shot at Andrew Luck when they desperately need a QB) by 3.

Gabe: Dolphins

Cardinals (+13.5) at Eagles

Dave: Eagles - It's a big spread but the Cardinals don't have it in them to follow the blueprint to beat Philly: Exploit the Eagles' bad run D and keep Mike Vick off the field. Beanie Wells is a walking cadaver and any interest in this game was rendered moot when Kevin Kolb was declared out. Eagles rout in a game they need BAD. Iggles by 17.

Gabe: Cardinals

Texans (-3.5) at Bucs

Dave: Texans - This might be my favorite Sunday game. If not for him starting slow with a bad hammy, Arian Foster would be a nice dark hore for MVP this season. The Bucs aren't good against the run and that will be obvious against the two-headed monster of Foster and Ben Tate. Still, Matt Schaub vs. Josh Freeman will be entertaining(although it would be more entertaining if Andre 3000 was going to play for Houston). Texans by 10.

Gabe: Texans

Titans (+3.5) at Panthers

Dave: Panthers - I find all the talk over Cam Newton being behind Andy Dalton for ROTY because Dalton's team has a better record to be ridiculous. Newton has stepped onto a team that was 2-14 last year and emerged as a top 12 QB in his first season. That deserves some hardware. As for this week, it's hard to like the Titans against anyone until Chris Johnson emerges from his grave. Panthers by 6.

Gabe: Panthers

Ravens (-6.5) at Seahawks

Dave: Ravens - Only way Baltimore blows this one is if they get too wrapped up in patting themselves on the back over sweeping Pittsburgh this season and overlook Seattle when they are tough at home. The Raven D should have a field day against T-Jax and the anemic Hawks offense and Joe Flacco needs to show off his newfound confidence by putting foot to ass against Seattle. Ravens by 13.

Gabe: Ravens

Lions (+2.5) at Bears

Dave: Lions - After watching Michael Bush run on Thursday and reading about the uncertianty of Jahvid Best returning this season for the Lions, I can't help but scratch my head over Detroit not making a move at the deadline for the big Raiders back. As for this week, the Lions are well-rested coming off the bye and get Chicago on a short week. I see that dominant Motown D-Line getting in Jay Cutler's face and Matt Stafford dropping some bombs to Megatron. Lions by 14.

Gabe: Lions

Giants (+4) at Niners

Dave: Giants - This game would be my favorite Sunday game if San Fran was actually enjoyable to watch. Even with the last-second win over New England, I'm still not jumping on the "Eli Manning is an elite QB" bandwagon just yet. This is a good litmus test for both teams. The Niners haven't played anybody and the Giants could leapfrog the Niners for the 2 seed with a win. Plus, Eli can attempt to polish that "elite" resume against a real defense this time. Giants by 1.


Gabe: Niners

Patriots (+2.5) at Jets


Dave: Patriots - Man, I'm sick of Patriots-Jets clashes on primetime. The hyperbole over this rivalry is just obnoxious. We get it. They don't like each other. They play two different styles of football. Rex Ryan is a loudmouth. Enough already. The Pats aren't going to lose two in a row, especially not to New York team so I say they pull this one out in a surprising rout. Pats by 17.


Gabe: Patriots


Vikings (+11.5) at Packers


Dave: Vikings - Really, for no other reason than the last game was close and this Packers D struggles to hold even big leads(as proven last week against San Diego). Packers will still win on Monday night, but I'll say Adrian Peterson keeps things under double digits again. Packers by 9.


Gabe: Packers

Week 10 Picks

Down 17 games and feeling the pressure to put the Latin community on his shoulders and carry them back to respectability to salvage 2011 for Puerto Ricans everywhere, Gabe thundered back with arguably his best week of the season and narrowing the deficit to 13 games with 8 weeks to play.

This week, however, doesn't just represent a possible turnaround for Lil Pun but it is also the birthday week for the sports blog's version of Eric B. and Rakim. Gabe's big day comes today(Wednesday, in case Gabe is too busy drowning in Guiness to post this early) while "The Big Calzone" gets his well wishes tomorrow. In commemorence for all our hard work, the NFL decided to unveil its first Thursday night game of the season on our happy born week and treated us to an epic showdown between washed-up Carson Palmer's Raiders and slowly-washing-up Phillip Rivers' Chargers.

Here's our take on Thursday's shenanigans:

LAST WEEK:

Gabe: 9-4-1

Dave: 5-8-1

SEASON:

Dave: 65-57-8

Gabe: 52-70-8

Oakland (+7) at San Diego

Dave: Oakland - This may be the first time in NFL history that a team acquires a Pro Bowl quarterback midseason and, as a result, submarines its once-promising playoff hopes. The first game and a half of the Carson Palmer Raiders Era could be chalked up to the former Bengal shaking off months worth of rust and Palmer did show some flashes late in the Denver loss of regaining his old form(by that, I mean, he managed to find former teammate and new over-the-hill weapon T.J. Houshmanzadeh on a pass or two). Palmer also has shown flashes of someone wanting to wrestle the interception lead away from this week's opposing QB, Phillip Rivers. Rivers has 14 picks in 8 games. Palmer has 5 in a game and a half. My prediction for their showdown Thursday will be two picks a piece with the better running game, which belongs to Oakland, prevailing at the end in a game that I won't be watching because I'll be feasting on whatever's in front of me during my first birthday dinner in Jersey in nearly a decade. Raiders by 4.

Gabe: Oakland - First of all, my poison of choice for my birthday was Maker's Mark, not Guinness, although I do love Guinness. Ummm, so about this suckfest I am most likely not going to watch....to me it comes down to the spread. Seven points is WAY to much. I think San Diego is going to turn it around tonight and Carson Palmer is going to continue to play like shit for the Raiders, but I can't trust the Chargers to win by more than a touchdown. I say the Chargers overcome a Philip Rivers INT, and win by 3.

Week 9 Picks

2011 hasn't been a great year for the Puerto Rican community. Jennifer Lopez got divorced. Ricky Martin failed making a comeback and NYC's prodigal son, Gabe Rodriguez, continues to get pounded like a Kardashian's ass during NBA All-Star Weekend. Dave, however, tacked on another three wins to his lead over Il Chupacobra and matched his best win total for the season with 9(including hitting the last five of last week's games).

Week 9 starts a new month. A new month that just so happens to be the birth month of the dynamic duo. Will it still be Dave-ember? Or will the 11th month of '11 be forever known as Novem-Gabe?

Let's get it!

LAST WEEK

Dave: 9-4

Gabe: 6-7

SEASON

Dave: 60-49-7

Gabe: 43-66-7

Jets (+2.5) at Bills

Dave: Jets - Gang Green may be the worst good team in the NFL. They can't run the ball. They can't really rush the passer and the only consistant threat to score they have is Santonio Holmes, who needs to make half the defense miss to get into the end zone. Still, Rex Ryan's D is tricky enough to at least hinder Fred Jackson and Revis Island is going to blanket Stevie Johnson, taking away Ryan Fitzpatrick's only option. This is probably the toughest pick for me this week, but I'll go Jets by 6.

Gabe: New York - Buffalo could go a long way to turning the AFC East into a two team race by winning today. The Jets really need this win to keep pace with Buffalo and New England. This is the first time this Buffalo team has been in such a big game and I think they are going to be feeling the pressure. The Jets have been here before. I’ll take the Jets to take care of business and win by a touchdown.

Seahawks (+11) at Cowboys

Dave: Cowboys - This is the kind of game where Tony Romo pads his stats and that leads to a week's worth of "Romo's back!" hyperbole on ESPN with Skip Bayless spitting all over himself while he goes homo for Romo. The Seahawks will be trotting out Tarvaris Jackson this week, but they could have Jim Zorn out there and it won't make much of a difference. Dallas is pissed after being taken to the shed last week on national TV, so I think they take it out on the lowly Hawks. Cowboys by 17.

Gabe: Seattle - I know Seattle sucks, but I can’t trust Dallas to beat Charlottesville High School by more than eleven. I think Dallas wins, but by ten or fewer.

Falcons (-6.5) at Colts

Dave: Falcons - Do I really need to explain this one? Really? Here's a fun stat for you: Through 7.5 games, Curtis Painter has 5 passing TD's. Five. Or as many as Big Ben had against Tennessee a couple weeks ago. Seriously. Five touchdowns. In a league where nobody plays pass defense anymore. In a league where Cam Newton looks like the second coming of Roger Staubach. Five touchdowns. S.M.H. Falcons by 20.

Gabe: Atlanta - One of these weeks the Colts are going to fuck around and win a game. Not today. They are going to see a healthy dose of Atlanta’s passing game to start the game. Atlanta will build a lead and then pound the ball on the ground to control the clock. Falcons by 10.

Dolphins (+4) at Chiefs

Dave: Chiefs - I guess with no basketball this month, the NFL decided to give us a few lay-ups of their own. I'm not sure the exact number but I believe Kansas City is something like 4,692-13 at home in the final two months of the season. They are on a four game win streak and could have sole possession of first place by this time next Monday thanks to some lucky scheduling(San Diego has Green Bay this week, then fellow first place Oakland in four days....Kansas City, meanwhile, get Miami today and Denver next week.) Dolphins are trying to outsuck Indy for Andrew Luck so I don't expect much of a fight here. KC by 10.

Gabe: Kansas City - The Chiefs seem to be getting things right. They have gotten a few lucky breaks (Philip Rivers’ mishandling a snap) in cobbling together four wins in a row. The Dolphins have not been finishing games well. The Chiefs defense has been living on sacks a turnover in recent games. I think they’ll have the opportunity to get both against the fish. Miami might have a fighting chance, but I like the Chiefs at home by a touchdown.

Bucs (+7.5) at Saints

Dave: Saints - Two things here: Saints are coming off a upset loss(which I saw coming but still picked N.O. anyway) last week to St. Louis. The last time these two teams met, the Bucs escaped with a win and broke Sean Payton's leg. With how up and down New Orleans has been this year, I say this is the week they let the guns out like Tony Montana in the final scene of Scarface. A little more than a touchdown might be a stretch because Tampa Bay actually is better than people think, but I'm rolling the dice on revenge here. Saints by 9.

Gabe: Tampa Bay - The Saints were stunned last week and really need to get a win today against the Bucs keep a little distance in the division. If LeGarrette Blount is in the line up for the Bucs, the Saints could be in for a long day. The Saints need to handle the ball because they’ve been beating themselves lately with turnovers. I think the Saints win, but by less than a TD.

49ers (-4.5) at Redskins

Dave: 49ers - My Redskins friends kept trying to warn me all season. "Dave, I know we're 3-1, but we suck. Trust me. We're gonna lose this week...and next week...and the week after...". And I kept trying to be the optimist and I kept ignoring them. Now, I'm done trying to play glass half full with these Redskins. The Niners may be the most suspect 6-1 team in history, but they'll waltz to 7-1 here against a Redskins team lining up for Landry Jones in April. Niners by 10.

Gabe: - I said it before, I’ll say it again….John Beck is going to have show me something before I pick the Skins to win again. Niners by 6.

Browns (+10.5) at Texans

Dave: Browns - Am I the only one who sees Chris Ogbonnaya, plucked off Houston's practice squad by Cleveland two weeks ago and now getting his first start, becoming a fantasy breakout star against his former team and further cementing the Madden Curse on Peyton Hillis by putting a stranglehold on the starting RB job? Probably, but the Browns aren't horrible defensively and 10.5 points is a lot to give up even if this is the crappy Browns. My gut says this one's closer than it needs to be. Texans by 9.

Gabe: Houston - Houston has been on a roll. They really want to put their foot on the neck of the rest of the division, and to do that they need to keep winning. Cleveland is not living up to expectations and had a bit of locker room drama this week, with some veterans calling out Peyton Hillis in a players only intervention style meeting. Cleveland is not playing well, Houston has momentum, I say the Texans by 14.

Bengals (+3) at Titans

Dave: Bengals - I didn't see this Bengals team coming. 5-2 with a rookie QB and WR as your two best players on offense? Crazy. Meanwhile, the world lost Andy Rooney yesterday but the fantasy football world lost Chris Johnson a couple months ago and there has yet to be a formal service for his passing. The Bengals play stingy D and with the Titans without Kenny Britt(torn ACL), and Chris Johnson(starting, but possibly dead from a cash coma), there won't be much offense on Tennessee's end. Bengals by 12.

Gabe: Bengals - The Bengals are paper tigers, but Tennessee is dealing with injuries and uninspired play. The Cincy offense is young and dumb enough to think they might be able to play with the big boys. Marvin Lewis is showing everyone why he was once called a defensive genius. I'll take the Bengals for the outright win in a small upset.

Packers (-5.5) at Chargers

Dave: Chargers - When you're up 17 games on your weekly picks opponent, you can afford to punt a game by attempting the reverse jinx so that your favorite team can remain undefeated. As a Packers fan, I want my boys to pull out a victory over what might be their toughest opponent all season. As a football fan, though, I want this Chargers loss to be the final straw for A.J. Smith and Norv Turner. Enough's enough now. This team has had enough talent over the past decade to win numerous Super Bowls and they've blown it. Now, they're on the verge of choking away another AFC West title. Fire these two idiots and bring in Jon Gruden because, as a human being, getting him out of the booth will be beneficial to everyone.

Gabe: Green Bay - San Diego has all of the potential in the world and none of the results. Their coach is soft. Their QB has issues between the ears. They aren’t tough as a team. Green Bay has none of those issues. I think Green Bay is going to roll and win by double digits.

Broncos (+7) at Raiders

Dave: Raiders - Quick question: If Tony Romo and Tim Tebow are drowning in the ocean and ESPN can only save one, who gets to live? (The answer is Tom Brady because Romo will find a way to still choke in a liferaft and Tebow can't drown because he can walk on water.). There aren't enough words to describe how awful this Broncos team is but Timmy Touchdown at least makes them interesting. Not interesting enough for an upset over a Raiders team trying to stay afloat in the AFC West, but interesting enough.

Gabe: Oakland - Denver is awful, especially with Tebow under center. Oakland is going to punch them in the mouth and win big.

Giants (+9.5) at Patriots

Dave: Patriots - New England's coming off a loss, the Giants are without Ahmad Bradshaw and Hakeem Nicks, and you know there's been a non-stop loop of "The Helmet Catch" somewhere to remind the Pats of the last time these two teams met(Gabe's still trying to sleep off the hangover from that night). The Pats' D is bad enough to keep this one close but Eli Manning will find a way to keep that from happening by throwing at least two bonehead picks this week. Pats by 10.

Gabe: New York - The Giants’ end of season schedule is brutal, and it starts today in New England. I think the Giants have a slight chance in this one. They are the team that perfected the formula to beating, and beating up, Tom Brady. The Giants’ pass rush is still the scariest in the NFL. I think their only chance is to let the boys pin their ears back and get after Brady. I also like the Giants’ receivers against the Patriot secondary. That being said, no one is better at scheming and exploiting weaknesses than Head Coach Hoodie and no one is better at carving a defense than Tom Terrific. I think this game is going to be close, and 9.5 is too many points.

Rams (+2.5) at Cardinals

Dave: Rams - Sam Bradford's back for St. Louis and Kevin Kolb's out for Arizona. The Rams got their first win last week against New Orleans. If they can pull out a win here, as Lou Brown would say, that is what we would call a "win streak". The Rams are better than their 1-6 record and I think they prove it here. Also, Bradford(currently with three TD passes after missing the last two weeks) will pass Curtis Painter on the TD pass leader list by night's end. Take it to the bank. Rams by 7.

Gabe: St. Louis- Here we are again. The game I wouldn’t watch even if it were being played in my driveway. I’ll take the Rams because they at least have some fight in them, which is more than you can say for Arizona.

Ravens (+3) at Steelers

Dave: Steelers - The last time these two teams met, the Ravens opened up a can of whoop ass to the tune of five turnovers for Big Ben and a 35-7 rout in B-more. Since then, the Ravens have tried their hardest to prove that game was a fluke, losing to teams like Tennessee and Jacksonville and going down 24-3 at the half to Arizona before narrowly winning last week. The Steelers, meanwhile, aren't as alive as many think but aren't quite dead either. They're on life support. They also want to get revenge on a Ravens team that was unwilling to take the boot off their neck in Week 1. My big money fantasy team has Mike Wallace, Big Ben and Ray Rice going tonight, so I'm hoping for a shootout. More likely, Steelers win by 6 in a clone of yesterday's LSU-'Bama offensive struggle.

Gabe: Pittsburgh - Hopefully this will be another smash mouth, old school, classic football game. These teams are both playing much differently than the first time they met. Pittsburgh has found their stride and I think they win a hard hitting nasty game, by 4.

Bears (+7.5) at Eagles

Dave: Eagles - I really would like a Philly loss here just to end all the glad-handing over a Eagles resurgence that's been going on the last few weeks, but Chicago doesn't have enough on either side of the ball to both keep up with Philly and stop Mike Vick from going nuts. Jason Babin is going to get aquainted with Jay Cutler a few times, but if Chicago's smart, they lean on Matt Forte heavy and keep Vick off the field and put up points by exploiting that terrible Eagles run D. That's if they're smart though. Eagles by 9.

Gabe: Chicago - Fact, Michael Vick has never beaten the Bears as a starter. Fact, the Bears beaten Philly three out of the last four times they’ve played. All that being said, each of the last five match-ups have been decided by five points or less, so why would this one be any different? I don’t think it will be. Either team by a field goal.

One Lucky Colt

The Indianapolis Colts, in a 2011 season that has been hard to watch sans Peyton Manning, have positioned themselves nicely into the co-pilot spot for Stanford wunderkind and unanimous 2012 #1 overall pick Andrew Luck(along with the Dolphins). Through eight weeks, the Colts have a one game edge over their hapless South Beach counterparts, as they stand at 0-8 to M-I-A's 0-7.

While prognosticators have the Dolphins picked to inevitably win the Luck Sweepstakes, the question that has been floating for weeks is "What if the Colts get the first pick this April?". The majority seems to think that the Colts would tab Luck to be their heir apparent to Peyton Manning, who will be 37 and coming off neck surgery next season, but well-known voices such as former Giants QB Phil Simms seem to think otherwise. Simms has even taken his stance out on the limb a step further by openly wondering what all the fuss is about with the kid described as the best QB prospect in decades.

Luck's numbers are nothing short of astonishing in his junior season. He's completing 71 % of his passes for a little over 2,200 yards with 23 touchdowns to just four picks on a Stanford team that's currently 8-0. This comes off a redshirt sophomore season that saw him complete 70.7% of his passes for 3,338 yards with a 32-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The knock on Luck is he's had the benefit of feasting on soft Pac-10 defenses his entire career and that a lot of the hype is over-exaggerated. Simms himself said he's yet to see enough pro-quality throws to jump on the Luck bandwagon. Luck's passed every test so far. Even while unloading on the UCLAs and Oregon States of the world through the regular season, Luck still tore apart a solid defense in Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl last year and, this season, he seems poised to do the same against any one of the SEC's biggest and baddest that Luck's Cardinal's draw in the postseason. Still, after guys like Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush(and Ryan Leaf before them) failed miserably to live up to the insane amount of hype they were given coming out of college, it's not too insane for guys like Simms to be a bit cautious before placing a guy like Luck atop the NFL's pedestal, even if they are in the minority. Remember, there were people who thought Leaf would be better than Manning in 1998 and some of those same people thought Bush was the next Gale Sayers.

Still, we won't know how Luck fares in the pros until he's actually in the pros and the Colts have to mull over the very real possibility that it will be them and maybe not the Dolphins that leads off April's Draft. Here are some of the pros and cons of the Colts tabbing Luck as their #1 pick.

Why The Colts Should Draft Andrew Luck: Nobody knows how Manning is going to recover from neck surgery. Most "experts" thought he would only miss Week 1 of this season, and even that theory was fought tooth and nail by Manning's teammates as well as numerous analysts. Now, it's Week 9 and there's no sign that Manning is coming back this season(nor should he, given that the Colts' season is over). By drafting Luck, the Colts are at least safeguarding themselves from the possibility that Manning's days are numbered. On top of that, they'll be to have "the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning" being mentored by......Peyton Manning. That gives the Colts the "pass the torch" advantage that teams like Denver and Miami are still trying to master after the departures of John Elway and Dan Marino, respectfully, and that teams like Green Bay have managed to benefit from. Whatever you think Luck will be as a pro, the consensus is that he's the best player in the draft. The Colts, which have pretty much killed Manning's chances of another Super Bowl run with some piss-poor drafting over the years, will now be in a position where not even they can mess this up(unless, of course, Luck is Leaf 2.0, but it would be harder to kill them for that than if they passed on Luck because they thought he was Leaf 2.0 and that ends up on not being the case).

The Colts need everything. Their running game is stagnant. The receiving corps are thin beyond Reggie Wayne, whose a free agent at year's end(not to mention, long in the tooth). The team hasn't produced a bonafide star on defense since finding Bob Sanders(who is now gone after many injury-riddled seasons) and Dwight Freeney(who will be 31 next year). Luck doesn't prevent them from catching another 62-7 beatdown like the Saints gave them two weeks ago in their Super Bowl rematch, but he's the surest thing in a draft filled with potential. If the Colts can manage to seamlessly transition from Manning, arguably the greatest QB of our era(at least statistically...we all know Brady's better) to Luck, the highest-rated prospect since '98, then they can spend the next two decades not having to worry about filling the hardest spot to fill on the NFL roster: Quarterback.

Why They Shouldn't Draft Luck: We've seen this before in Green Bay with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. Eventhough it will be tough to justify passing on taking a successor when one like Luck falls in your lap(like Rodgers did in '05), it will be even tougher trying to explain to Manning(who has had to sit on the sidelines gritting his teeth and anxiously awaiting a medical green light to play) why you mortgaged the last remaining years of his NFL career by taking someone who doesn't help them at all next season if Manning is healthy. Again, we don't know how Manning heals from neck surgery. What if a year away from taking an NFL beating adds another half decade to his career? Look at what biceps surgery did for Favre after he left the Jets. It's not inconceivable that Manning plays into his early-40's if he recovers well enough. Then, there's the other reason Manning would oppose having Luck, and this is a point I have to give Simms his just due for making. As we've seen in Denver, fans can be very fickle when the product on the field doesn't meet their high standards. Suppose the Colts draft Luck and Manning starts off slow in his '12 comeback campaign, you think there isn't going to be a deafening amount of cries at Lucas Oil for Luck like there were in Denver for Tim Tebow this year?

The risk of angering Manning and running into another Favre-Rodgers-McCarthy-Thompson fiasco in Indy at least equalizes the potential of having lucked into Luck and also will have a long-term effect on the franchise for years to come. After all, if Luck's introduction to the NFL is as the catalyst for getting Peyton Manning ousted from Indianapolis before Mr. Laser Rocket Arm is ready, what can Luck expect when he gets up there in years and the Colts are again looking for their new franchise face? Guys like Manning are old school. Like Favre, Manning isn't going to let old men feasting on pretzels in a press box while penning Manning's demise on their iPad tell him when he has to hang them up. Favre played the "will I, won't I retire?" game with the media for so long that even his most devout followers realized he was doing it out of spite and a never-ending desire for attention and eventually washed their hands with him. The same could happen here for Manning. He may be a media darling now but it's funny how a man's demeanor can change when he feels like the same hands that once patted him on the back after a big game are now pushing him out of the door. We've seen rookie QBs come in and perform well from jump street but the potential of Luck is greatly improved if he's allowed to take the amicable side of playing Rodgers to Manning's Favre as opposed to the more dramatic side(although Rodgers and Favre not getting along hasn't seem to hurt the Packers now under the A-Rod era, but I imagine the Colts would like a relationship far less contentious between Manning and Luck).

So, what's the solution? The easy answer is for the Colts to trade the pick in hopes of getting something close to what the Chargers got for trading out of the top spot in 2001 and giving up the chance at Michael Vick to Atlanta(two firsts, two seconds and a couple players). Although any team that will be willing to pay a huge ransom for a shot at Luck probably is too thin on talent to give Indy anything worthwhile. For instance, we know Dan Snyder wouldn't be gun-shy on a deal for Luck, but what could the Redskins possibly give the Colts to sweeten the deal? Any picks, in theory, would be lower than in 2011 if Luck is what everyone says he is, and who does Washington have that would interest the Colts? DeAngelo Hall? Tim Hightower? LaRon Landry? The same goes for a team like Miami or Cleveland. You think Bill Polian is moving out of the top spot for a bunch of picks and Brandon Marshall or Peyton Hillis? Didn't think so.

Of course, this whole scenario becomes moot if the Colts find a way to not suck for Luck as much as Miami or Cleveland or Arizona do(an interesting scenario on par with the Colts picking first, however, would be if St. Louis ends up with the top spot. Do you trade the pick? Do you trade Sam Bradford? Hmmm...). Time will tell how juicy this story gets but it's something to keep an eye on in a season filled with inconsistent play from teams that play their home games outside of the state of Wisconsin.