2011 NBA Preview

It's fitting that the 2011 basketball season starts on December 25th because it looked like we needed a Christmas miracle for the NBA to return before fall of 2012. Regardless, here we are. The NBA season kicks off in less than two hours. I'll skip the preamble and get to my picks for this upcoming 66-game season.

PLAYOFF TEAMS

WEST

1. Dallas Mavericks - For teams to make it far this season, they are going to need good depth to survive those brutal back-to-backs. The defending champs have that in spades. What they don't have, thanks to some offseason shuffling, is a defensive presence. The Mavs brought in some big names in guys like Lamar Odom and Vince Carter at the expense of heralded defenders such as Tyson Chandler and Caron Butler. They swapped out Puerto Rican jitterbug J.J. Barea for gun-toting, teammate mother-banging Delonte West. That, in essence, is why I like the Mavs to dominate the regular season but, spoiler alert, not repeat. Who's going to make a stop for this Mavs team when they need it? Dirk? Brendan Haywood? Vinsanity? For Rick Carlisle's boys to repeat, they need to find a presence on defense, find roles that will keep the tragically-moody Carter and Odom happy and hope that finally winning a title doesn't make guys like Dirk and Jason Kidd complacent. That's a lot to ask in a short span of time.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder - The Thunder are another team that's not only deep but young. In fact, their "B team"(Cole Aldrich, Nick Collison, Thabo Sefalosha, James Harden, Eric Maynor) is probably better than some teams' starting five. OKC should have made their first Finals trip last year, off talent alone, but got tripped up by the one thing that concerns me about them this year: the Kevin Durant-Russell Westbrook alpha dog dynamic. The NBA, throughout its history, is littered with potentially great teams that were crippled by the inability to figure out who's Batman and who's Robin. It's why I thought the Thunder should have traded Westbrook to the Hornets for Chris Paul, who's a star but would be comfortable deferring to Kid Dynamite. If Scott Brooks can get the pecking order between Durant and Westbrook figured out, nobody's beating Oklahoma City. They have a sick defensive frontcourt with Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka that complements the best young scorer the NBA has seen since Allen Iverson in Kevin Durant. Depth, youth, and balance......the Thunder are one wrinkle to iron out away from locking down the West for years.

3. Los Angeles Clippers - It's hard not to jump on the Clippers bandwagon when you look at the roster and think of how the next few months will be swamped with NBA Jam-like highlights from Lob City. However, if there is a nit to pick here, it's that the three of the team's biggest stars are coming off recent major injuries. Blake Griffin survived year two with a remarkable clean bill of health and his rookie season might have just been a slight bump in the road, but it should be noted that Blake Griffin did miss all of his rookie season due to injury. It should be noted that Chris Paul's knees are a ticking time bomb, as are Caron Butler's. It's easy to look at all the moving and shaking and get excited but we must remember: These are still the Clippers. If any franchise has been synonymous with being plagued by bad luck, it's these guys. On top of that, they are still missing a couple parts. For one, beyond DeAndre Jordan, this team doesn't have another interior presence on defense unless Blake Griffin evolves into a young Kevin Garnett this season. They also don't have a true 2-guard after dealing Eric Gordon in the Paul trade. Chauncey Billups is a nice piece, but he's undersized at the 2, as is Mo Williams. All of these points might be moot because, at the end of the day, who's keeping up with a team this young and talented but if the wheels come off the bandwagon quickly, don't say I didn't warn you.

4. Memphis Grizzlies - The Darrell Arthur injury is a big hit to this Grizzlies team because he was a promising big who could spell Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph and contribute on both sides of the ball. The team tried to soften the blow by trading for Quincy Pondexter, but he doesn't have Arthur's size and length. Still, the Grizzlies should build on their surprising playoff run from last year. The big key is getting Rudy Gay back as well as resisting the urge to trade O.J. Mayo yet again. Gay and Mayo are the best young tag team you're not talking about and that tandem combined with the Gasol/Z-Bo tandem makes Memphis very formidable(especially if Mike Conley Jr. continues to develop). The Grizz have a solid bench as well, headlined by underrated defensive stopper Tony Allen. The question is who will lead them now that Shane Battier is gone? Battier was the glue that kept a young and, at times, immature team together. Now he's in Miami. Will this team unravel or will they realize that they have a chance to go farther than any previous team has gone in the franchise's history? Time will tell.

5. Portland Trailblazers - It's a testament to how good this Portland team is put together that they can manage to still be viewed as a playoff team despite some bad luck in recent drafts that has forced them to watch Brandon Roy bow out early and probably Greg Oden not too long after. Filling in for the now-retired Roy and the always-injured Oden is the combination of Wesley Matthews and former-Hawks gunner Jamal Crawford at the two and a shot blocker who is not stranger to injuries himself in Marcus Camby. Because they are already down two, the Blazers can't afford anymore bites from the injury bug. The team made a huge upgrade a point guard by switching Andre Miller out for Ray Felton. Felton is one of the quickest guards in the league and is in a contract year so he'll be extra motivated. LaMarcus Aldridge will build on his resume from last year's Most Improved to perhaps the best young power forward in the West and Portland will get some help from savvy vets like Kurt Thomas and Gerald Wallace. On paper, this Blazers team can make a run but injuries have been their undoing for years. If they stay healthy, they can make some noise in a wide-open Western Conference.

6. San Antonio Spurs - Honestly, this is more of a respect call. The Spurs are on life support, in my opinion. Tim Duncan's on his last legs. I'm not sold on DeJuan Blair or Tiago Splitter as their depth up front(Blair because he's undersized and his knees are on borrowed time and Splitter because he's a bit green). Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Richard Jefferson are a nice trio but Manu and RJ are getting old and Parker's focus is an issue coming off nearly being traded AND a very public divorce. The other guys on this Spurs team? I shrug at them. James Anderson? Matt Bonner? T.J. Ford? Umm...ok. At the end of the day, they are led by the best coach in the NBA and the best power forward of our era. That should be enough to carry them to the playoffs. Past the first round though against younger, quicker teams? Doubtful.

7. Los Angeles Lakers: Surprised? Don't be. The Lakers did everything they could over the last few months to submarine any chance of keeping this dynasty going. First, I hate the Mike Brown hiring. That job belonged to Brian Shaw and you spent years grooming him as the heir apparent to Phil Jackson and then you led him down the primrose path and cut his head off by hiring Brown. Brown's the Brian Billick of the NBA: a subpar coach whose success comes more from being attached to greatness than any greatness he possesses.....kinda like U-God with the Wu-Tang Clan. Second, you went all-in on a Chris Paul trade that wasn't MANDATORY and then completely lost your composure when the NBA screwed you over. The Lakers needed an upgrade at point guard but they didn't need a team overhaul. Signing a Kyle Lowry or even J.J. Barea would have sufficed. Then, you kill your frontcourt depth by trading Lamar Odom for peanuts. Now, you HAVE to rely on Andrew Bynum to stay healthy, which he's proven he can't do. Third, Kobe's hurt and coming into a season moody, divorced and having to do more than he's ever had to to keep this team competitive. Please explain to me how that ends well. Beyond Bynum and Gasol, L.A. doesn't have much. Josh McRoberts? Jason Kapono? Metta World Peace? Yikes. On top of that, the Clippers will be showing you up IN YOUR OWN BUILDING...every single night. On the bright side, Lakers fans, Kobe will sulk his way into forcing Mitch Kupchak to fire Mike Brown by Valentine's Day and trade the house for Dwight Howard....and we all know how well Kobe acted the last time the Lakers had a big-time center come to L.A. from Orlando, right?

8. Denver Nuggets - Truth be told, the Nuggets would be a nice sleeper pick to come out of the West if three of their best players weren't trapped in China. With Kenyon Martin, J.R. Smith and Wilson Chandler all stuck in the Far East, who is doing the crunchtime scoring for this team? Hell, who's doing the scoring at all for this team? Ty Lawson? Aaron Afflalo, maybe? Lawson and Afflalo are nice pieces and I love the addition of Kenny Faried(Newark, NJ in the house!) but this team has a lot of talent not on the roster. Rudy Fernandez and Corey Brewer were nice additions, but they are role players. Unless Danilo Gallinari becomes Dirk Nowitzki this season, the Nuggets are in for a world of hurt. Plus, even when the China Three are available, they're free agents, making them no guarantee to come back to Denver. Still, Lawson's a good young point guard and they have some beef up front with Timmy Mosgov and Nene(and Faried will prove to be one of the game's best bangers from jump street) but this team is missing an alpha dog. Until they find him, this is a team of spare parts that's just good enough to fend off the rest of the pack.

EAST

1. Chicago Bulls - I loved, loved, LOVED the Richard Hamilton signing. If he doesn't show his age, he's a good pickup for a team that was dying for a 2-guard. I would have liked them to sign someone younger and more athletic that can run with D-Rose like Jason Richardson or even deal for O.J. Mayo but Hamilton is still a good move as a proven playoff scorer and gifted shooter. The Bulls have the team to make it to the Finals. There are just a few questions. Will Derrick Rose stay motivated after signing his big extension? We've seen many a young point guard lose their way after getting that big money(Looking at you, Rajon Rondo!). Can Carlos Boozer stay healthy? If so, the Bulls have the best front court in basketball with him and Joakim Noah and the duo of Omar Asik and Taj Gibson off the bench. Tom Thibodeau will have this team at the top of the league's best defensive units again and the presence of Rip will take pressure off Rose, who was held in check by LeBron and the Heat in the Conference Finals once LBJ D'ed up on him. There isn't much standing in Chicago's way, but I'm not ready to hand the East over to them yet.

2. Miami Heat - Quick question: If Miami offered Chris Bosh to New Orleans for Chris Paul, would that have been that horrible of a move for either team? Bosh thrives on lousy teams and CP3 would have been the perfect third wheel for the Wade-LeBron Heat combo. I guess we'll never know. The Heat shocked some people by coming together when it mattered and making a run to the Finals before running out of gas against the Mavericks. Now, they are back with just a few small changes. The rotting corpse of Big Z is gone and has since been replaced by the obese frame of Eddy Curry, who somehow made the Heat roster despite being the size of Rick Ross. Eddie House is gone and, in his place, the team brought in Shane Battier. Battier isn't great in any one area and he might be a couple years over the hill but he's a proven leader, a solid defender and someone who won't slack off at any point in the season. Another guy getting some buzz is point guard Norris Cole, a rookie point guard out of Cleveland State who might take Mario Chalmers' starting gig. The Heat are still everything they were last year: a collection of young stars and old big names. They have enough depth to survive the short season and Wade-LBJ-Bosh is still a daunting task for any team on any given night. Can they finish what they started last season or did they shoot their load too early trying to prove themselves last year?

3. Boston Celtics - As with San Antonio, this was a respect call. The Celtics are old, frail and not very deep. In a better conference, they may be lucky to sniff the playoffs. So, why do I have them as a three seed? Because Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo is a hell of a foursome in a weak East and I expect the Celtics to make a couple midseason additions to keep their scant hopes at a title going. The Mikael Pietrus signing was a nice move for a team needing young legs in the backcourt but, beyond the Big Four, there isn't much. Jermaine O'Neal was washed up five years ago. Same for Chris Wilcox and those are two main bigs for Boston outside of Brandon Bass. Marquis Daniels, Keyon Dooling and JaJuan Johnson are nothing to get excited over either. Still, they have a solid core and I trust Doc Rivers to be smart enough to conserve his aging vets until the games actually matter. It's going to be hard to watch for Celtics fans but the team has too much talent in the starting five to be dead in the water.

4. New York Knicks - Welcome back to relevance, Knicks fans. The Knicks made a couple interesting moves this offseason. For one, they overpaid for Tyson Chandler but he's the type of lanky, shotblocking interior presence the team hasn't had since the Marcus Camby days. They are hoping to get something out of Baron Davis to run Mike D'Antoni's offense but I have my doubts over a guy who has had trouble staying in shape his entire career suddenly being able to look like John Basedow after missing the first two months recovering from back surgery. In the meantime, the Knicks will try to stay afloat with what's left of Mike Bibby and Toney Douglas. Depth is also a concern as the team doesn't have much thanks to trading half the roster to Denver for Carmelo Anthony. Still, they did get Carmelo and the combination of him and Amare Stoudemire with Chandler protecting the rim is good enough to make the Knicks a contender. If Davis can come back motivated and in shape, then they pulled off the sneakiest signing in years....but that's a huge if. For now, the Knicks are a well-balanced team on both sides of the ball that's a key injury away from being an 8 seed.

5. Indiana Pacers - If Indiana got O.J. Mayo, as they've tried to do on two seperate occassions, this Pacers team could be a legit three seed and possible dark horse in the East. Still, the team did make a nice move in getting David West from New Orleans, even if D-West is coming off a blown out knee. West will be spelled by the high-energy duo of Tyler Hansbrough(who I like a lot this year) and Louis Amundson(acquired from Golden State a week ago) and will has a beast of a center inside in Roy Hibbert to take pressure off him in the paint. If the Pacers can keep West rested until playoff time, he's going to be a problem for opposing teams because he's a stout rebounder who can score in the paint and with a good outside jumper. Another good move was acquiring George Hill from San Antonio. He and Darren Collison make a nice tandem at point guard with Hill occassionally moving to the two when the team goes small. Oh, and did I mention the team has the most underrated player in the game in Danny Granger? Granger and second-year man Paul George give this team two versatile youngsters on the wing who can fill up the entire stat sheet. The Pacers could be the East's version of the Thunder this year. They have good depth and balance and, if they get anything close to what David West has given the Hornets over the years, they are going to be a tough out in the playoffs.

6. Orlando Magic - Obviously, this spot is contigent on either a. Dwight Howard staying all season(highly unlikely) or b. the team getting something of value for Doomsday to keep them competitive this season(also unlikely). Looking at this roster, it amazes me that D-12 wants out. This is a better assemblence of talent than LeBron ever had in Cleveland and those Cavs teams won 50 games annually. The Magic would be a nice dark horse this year because they are deep and have talent in every facet of the game. They can block shots with the game's premier defender in Howard. They have good rebounders in guys like Big Baby Davis and Ryan Anderson. Hedo Turkoglu and Jason Richardson are nice complementary pieces. Jameer Nelson is one of the game's best point guards, when healthy and J.J. Redick is a 6th Man of the Year candidate if he regains his shooting touch from his Duke days. Still, the team, much like Denver was last year with Melo, is going to be crippled by 24-7 questions about Howard's future until they eventually deal their prized big man. That's why it would have made more sense for Orlando to deal Howard before the season and avoid the distraction. Now, until they find a deal or get Howard's name on an extension, their hopes of contending are pretty much doomed.

7. Atlanta Hawks - This may be wishful thinking on my part because I feel this is the year it all comes apart at the seams for the Hawks. For one, swapping Jamal Crawford for what's left of Tracy McGrady was a downgrade for Atlanta. T-Mac hasn't mattered in half a decade. I also get the sinking feeling the team will start off slow and find a way to trade Josh Smith. Too many farfetched factors have to happen for the Hawks to even be decent this year. Atlanta's main guys off the bench this year are McGrady, Jerry Stackhouse and Vlad Radmanovic? Umm....this isn't 2002. Marvin Williams will continue on his career as "the guy the Hawks took ahead of Deron Williams and Chris Paul", otherwise known as "Sam Bowie 2.0". Al Horford took a step back last year and J-Smith is still a work in progress on the offensive end. The team thinks point guard Jeff Teague has some promise and, he did show signs in the playoffs, but he's not a star. It could all end bad for Atlanta. Right now, they benefit from playing in a weak conference where the teams below them are all rebuilding but a slow start will be this team's death knell.

8. Philadelphia 76ers - Another sneaky young team that could screw around and be higher than projected. A couple reasons I'm optimistic about Philly's chances: They have a nice young nucleus with Iggy, Thad Young, Jrue Holiday and Marreese Speights. Elton Brand is still a monster inside and Lou Williams is a nice piece off the bench(Unrelated note: Given the collection of talent this team has, and I realize this goes against everything I just wrote about why I'm optimistic about Philly, wouldn't this be the perfect team for the Lakers to trade Andrew Bynum to? You're telling me Bynum for Iggy, Lou Williams and Tony Battie doesn't work for both teams? Maybe even swap out Williams for Evan Turner? Just sayin'.). My reasons for pessimism: Either Evan Turner isn't the goods or he's being buried by Doug Collins. Evan Turner was supposed to be the nice consolation prize in last year's draft after John Wall. I know it's early, but shouldn't he be at least the 2nd best guy on this team right now? Speaking of Collins, I just have no faith in that guy as a coach. None. He's failed pretty much everywhere else because his guys tune him out after awhile. Why wouldn't that happen here with a team filled with young guys? If Turner turns out to be everything he was at Ohio St and they continue to get solid contributions from Young and Iguodala and Holiday, the Sixers could be tough but they are a bit too green and poorly coached to make a dent in a top-heavy East.

MVP: Dwayne Wade, G, Heat - The three front runners according to all the prognostication sites is LeBron, Kevin Durant and Chris Paul. All worthy choices and I would have went with KD if I didn't get burned last year by picking him. My question is: Why not D-Wade? He's proven that, when it matters most, he's the guy for Miami and not LeBron. After all, Miami is WADE COUNTY. The only thing holding Flash back is his inability to stay healthy. You can't see a motivated D-Wade coming off a Finals defeat that still burns inside him coming into this season in impeccable shape and going to into complete Takeover Mode for 66 games? Is 30-6-6 an unrealistic stat line for Flash? I don't think so. CP3 gets the buzz because the Clips will be the most exciting team in basketball. LeBron is proven but he's also severely disliked and Durant has to make the decision to tell Russell Westbrook "This is my team!" before I can pick him to be MVP again. My money's on Wade this season.

Defensive Player of the Year: Serge Ibaka, F/C, Thunder - When picking DPOY, you pretty much have too options: Dwight Howard or anybody else. The reasons behind Howard winning it the last three years is as much about reputation as it is numbers. Serge Ibaka is every bit as intimidating a defensive presence as D-12. He just doesn't have the resume or the promotion. After awhile, people get tired of voting for the same guy, so I think this one is a toss-up between Ibaka and Memphis' Tony Allen.

Rookie of the Year: Derrick Williams, F, Timberwolves - His teammate Ricky Rubio will be the most exciting but Derrick Williams, to me, was the best player in a so-so draft. He can score inside or out. He's a decent defender and he can play multiple positions. It's just a matter of him finding playing time on a crowded Minnesota team. This one is pretty much between Williams and Kyrie Irving, with The Jimmer as a dark horse.

Coach of the Year: Rick Carlisle, Mavericks - Because the man has been a great coach with three teams now and doesn't get nearly the props that Popp or Doc Rivers gets.

Sixth Man of the Year: Lamar Odom, F, Mavericks - L.O. can play pretty much anywhere because he's athletic, a good defender and has suprisingly good handle for a big man, so he'll find key minutes for Dallas. Plus, after being traded from L.A. and dying to make his first All-Star team, he's going to be extra motivated to put up big numbers.

Western Conference Finals: Grizzlies over Thunder in 6 - Before your jaws drop, take a long look at this Western Conference and tell me who you like with serious conviction. It's as wide open as its been in years. The days of the Lakers, Jazz, and Spurs running things is over. The Mavs can still repeat but history and their new roster aren't on their side. The Grizzlies have a lot of talent and last year's run will pay off dividends in terms of experience going into this season. Find me a better starting five than, if healthy, Marc Gasol-Zach Randolph-Rudy Gay-OJ Mayo-Mike Conley Jr. You can't. As for the bench, the Thunder have the slight edge but I'm not riding with Oklahoma City until I see proof that they've figured out the power share with KD and Westbrook. Plus, Quincy Pondexter, Xavier Henry, Sam Young, Tony Allen and Dante Cunningham is still a pretty decent bench.

Eastern Conference Finals: Heat over Bulls in 7 - Because Miami has answers to anything Chicago can throw at them. Derrick Rose? Still has to figure out how to get by LeBron. The presence of Rip Hamilton? Nullified by Dwayne Wade. Boozer and Noah up front? Ok, maybe Miami doesn't have an answer for that. Miami is the only team that can match Chicago skill for skill and two stars are better than one and a half, so I'll ride with Miami this year.

NBA Finals: Heat over Grizzlies in 6 - This is going to be a far more entertaining Finals than last year and, with the short season, LeBron will only have to go hard for 66 games and the playoffs rather than 82 and the playoffs. Same for D-Wade. If Erik Spolstera is smart enough to not use up all the gas in his stars' tanks, the Heat will overwhelm a very game Grizzlies team because they are athletic enough to run with them and have enough big bodies to throw at Gasol and Z-Bo. I think this is Miami's year. The trio has come together and little pieces like Shane Battier and whomever they manage to bring in midseason(be it, Antawn Jamison or Nate Robinson or another big) will allow the team to not rely so heavily on The Big Three.