NFL Picks, Week 3

If my math is correct, Dave and I both went 10-6 last week against the spread. That puts our season totals at 22-10 for him and 19-13 for myself.

So let's get going with this week's picks. Again, these are against the spread and we are using the lines from the Las Vegas Hilton.

Here we go:

Cleveland (+13.5) at Baltimore

Gabe: Baltimore - This looks like a huge number. But the Browns flat-out stink and got rolled by Denver last week. Baltimore defense is great. I think they flirt with the goose-egg as Flacco and co. on offense score at least 4 TD's.

Dave: Baltimore - Playing anyone else, I would actually say not starting Jamal Lewis would be a good thing for the Browns, but not against the Ravens.

New York Giants (-6.5) at Tampa Bay

Gabe: New York - Last week Tampa lost by 13 to the Bills. The Giants have a better defense than Buffalo, even without Justin Tuck if he doesn't play. The Bills Fred Jackson ran all over the Bucs last week and I think the Giants running game will have a break-out game today. I'll take the Giants to win by more than a touchdown.

Dave: Giants - The Bucs are every bit as bad as we thought they were going to be(Is that the reverse Denny Green rant?) and Cadillac Williams is....stop me if you've heard this one....banged up. Plus, even without Tuck in the lineup, this Giants' pass rush against Leftwich and his 14-minute delivery spells trouble.

Green Bay (-6.5) at St. Louis

Gabe: Green Bay - Green Bay is going to come into this game angry after last week against the Bengals. St. Louis lost by two on the road in Washington last week, which in to them counts as a road win. Steven Jackson is the Rams' only weapon on offense. Defensive lineman, and fellow C-Villain, Chris Long might present some problems for Green Bay, but, after Antwan Odom's five sacks last week, I think they will be inspired to play better on the O-line. I'll take the Packers by at least 9.

Dave: Green Bay - Like last week, I flirted with going against my boys against a clearly inferior team but my homer bias won out. Look, the Rams are cosmically bad. They've managed one touchdown in 2 games, and while I'm sure they'll improve their sack total(one sack so far) by at least 300% against Green Bay's turnstile O-line, the Packers know they can't afford to lose two straight games they should have won and head into Minnesota against The Rotting Corpse, down 1-2.

Kansas City (+7) at Philadelphia

Gabe: Philadelphia - Kevin Kolb played pretty well last week, aside from turnovers. Michael Vick coming back is going to inject some life in this team, and their fans, and that will be the key. This is the toughest place in the league to play as a visitor. Matt Cassell is just not ready to lead his team into that kind of environment. Philly by 10.

Dave: Philadelphia - How are the Eagles only favored by a touchdown at home against a Chiefs team that's one of the two or three worst in the NFL? Granted, I don't think Kevin Kolb is a good QB. I think last week's 300 yard performance came from the fact that a. they were playing from behind from the get-go and b. they were playing a Saints D that could give up 400 yards through the air to the Def Leppard drummer. That being said, even no McNabb and a limited Westbrook won't stop the Eagles from winning by 10. Also, as a side bet, I'm putting the over/under on Vick plays at 20 and I'm putting the over/under on the announce team on going Gus Johnson on every 4 yard Vick scamper at 15.

Atlanta (+5.5) at New England

Gabe: Atlanta - New England's defense is getting old and slow. They will not be able to keep up with Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Roddy White. New England has shown that their offense can be harassed into making mistakes. I think Atlanta does that and keeps it close. I think this game will be decided by a field goal, one way or the other.

Dave: New England - Perhaps I'm just not ready to buy the Falcons or just not ready to give up on the Patriots, or probably both, but I don't think Tom Brady lets his team get embarrassed at home after two straight terrible performances. Yes, the Pats O-Line isn't getting Mr. Bundchen any protection, but it's like he's facing the Steel Curtain. The Pats D is pretty bad so this could be a shootout and in a shootout, even with half a knee, I like Brady and company.

San Francisco (+6.5) at Minnesota

Gabe: San Francisco - I will say it again; I believe in Mike Singletary and the SF defense. Minnesota's defense is also one of the best in the NFL. The difference will be AP, but I think it will be close. Minnesota will win, but by less than a TD.

Dave: San Francisco - This is what I've been waiting for: Brett Favre's Rotting Corpse against a real defense, after he snacked on Cleveland and Detroit so far and looked marginal at best. The Niners are for real, and while Frank Gore won't have the game he had last week, the Niners proved in the Cardinals game that they can still win when the O sputters. AP's banged up, Favre is nursing a broken nail on his throwing hand(which I'm pretty sure is just one of those "We'll manufacture some random injury to maintain the Brett Favre Tough Guy Mystique when he decides to play through the pain......ala last year and his torn biceps), plus Percy Harvin might be a scratch.

Jacksonville (+3.5) at Houston

Gabe: Jacksonville - If you read my piece at sportstalkbuzz.com (Boom...Cross-promoted!) you'd already know that this game is a match-up of each team's offense strength versus the other team's defensive weakness. I think the game will be high scoring, and close. Houston will win, but by only a field goal.

Dave: Houston - 3.5 is being a bit generous for a Texans team that dropped 34 on the Titans last week and now face a Jaguars team that has its sights set on drafting Tim Tebow next year and have, thus, quit on Jack Del Rio. Plus, Houston gets Kevin Walter back possibly this week and made perhaps the sneakiest good signing of the season by bringing in former Chief and Tom Brady season-ender Bernard Pollard. Texans by a TD.

Washington (-6) at Detroit

Gabe: Detroit - I am not jumping on the bandwagon and saying that Washington will lose, but I think 6 points would be too big of a line for the Skins if they were playing Michigan St., much less an NFL team. The Redskins play up or down to their competition, so I think they will win, but it will be close.

Dave: Washington - All the Detroit love changed my mind on this. Look, guys, this is still the Lions. Sure, they've looked like lovable losers in putting up a fight against N.O. and Minny the last two weeks, but they still lost those games...by a lot. Yes, Washington sucks. Yes, Portis is hurt. Yes, 6 points is a lot for a Redskins team that only scored 9 on the Rams, but remember the last time the Redskins showed life against a team, it was against these Detroit Lions and guess what? The Lions haven't won a game since then.

Tennessee (+2) at New York Jets

Gabe: New York - The Jets defense is the truth. The Titan's running game is for real. Mark Sanchez is playing well and Jericho Cotchery and Chansi Stuckey look great. Both teams can put up a lot of points. The difference will be the Jets D harassing Kerry Collins. If they could disrupt Tom Brady, imagine what they will do to Old man Collins. I think this is going to be a great hard fought game. I'll take the Jets to win by a field goal and cover.

Dave: Tennessee - My new strategy is pick the Titans until they make me look smart. Granted, it paid off in Week 1, but only because they lost by less than 6. Last week, they screwed me by forgetting to play defense against Houston. I can't see Jeff Fisher letting his boys go down 0-3 even against the Jets. Jets franchise Mark Sanchez is hurt and I want to believe the Titans D is better than they played last week and will provide some pressure on a rookie QB who has to have a bad game sometime this season. Titans by a field goal.

New Orleans (-6) at Buffalo

Gabe: New Orleans - The Saints have put up 93 points in two games. If they keep up that kind of production this week then Buffalo would have to score over 40 points to beat the spread...that ain't happenin'.

Dave: New Orleans - It's hard to get a gauge on these Bills. They outperformed a Pats team that probably isn't as good as we think for 58 minutes before coughing up the lead and then they dismantled a Bucs team that's just plain terrible. So are the Bills a good team that just didn't take care of business in Week 1? Or just a team feasting on cupcakes? One thing we do know, Drew Brees, he's pretty good and while a shootout(which this will inevitably become) makes 6 points risky, I'll take the Saints by a touchdown.

Chicago (-2.5) at Seattle

Gabe: Chicago - The Seahawks are beat up. Even if Matt Hasselbeck plays he will be hampered. Chicago's defense is also battered, but I think they can do enough to stop the Seahawks offense. Chicago wins by at least 3.

Dave: Chicago - For a preview of this game twice as long as the one Gabe wrote about Texans-Jags, check MY blog out at sportstalkbuzz.com. Assuming you do the smart thing and go read it, I'll keep this short for you: Jay Cutler facing a defense missing its top 3 corners. Oh, and Seneca Wallace is starting for Seattle. Bears by 14.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Cincinnati

Gabe: Cincinnati - Pittsburgh's defense has not been the same without Troy Polamalu. Carson Palmer and the rest of the Cincy offense have been playing great. Chad OchoCinco is once again playing like an elite WR. I think the Cincy passing game will carve up the Pittsburgh defense and get the straight up win in my...Boom!...upset special!

Dave: Cincinatti - I'm still digesting the crow from writing off Cincy last week(though I am enjoying the sweet taste of picking the Steelers to fall to Chicago last week) and while I don't see Antwan Odom notching 5 sacks or Cedric Benson having another career day, the Steelers' O is putrid and this defense clearly misses Troy Polamalu. Bengals win it outright, by 6.

Denver (-2) at Oakland

Gabe: Oakland - I can't describe how little I care about this game. Two below average AFC West teams? Yuck. I'll take the Raiders because they are at home.

Dave: Denver - Like the Bills, I can't get a read on these Broncos. Brandon Stokley, Week 1's hero, is hurt which will open up things, hopefully, for Brandon Marshall. Knowshon Moreno is also banged up but Correll Buckhalter is a nice backup. Plus, I said this last week, I'll keep saying it: I'm not co-signing JaMarcus Russell. Not now. Not ever.

Miami (+4.5) at San Diego

Gabe: San Diego - Ladanian Tomlinson is out. Darren Sproles is a capable back-up, but that will only last so long. I think San Diego's defense will get after the Miami offense. I also think the cross-country travel will be a factor.

Dave: San Diego - I want to believe Miami is a better team than the one that shit the bed against Indy on Monday night, but I can't. Chargers by 10.

Indianapolis (+3) at Arizona

Gabe: Arizona - Indianapolis has been winning by the skin of their teeth. They were absolutely dominated in every way last week, except on the scoreboard thanks to Peyton Manning TD passes on his first and last play of the game. They can only survive like that for so long and I think Arizona's potent offense will put up big points and Indy won't be able to hang.


Dave: Indianapolis - Bill Simmons made a good point in one of his podcasts this week when he asked when was the last time Peyton Manning disappointed in a night game. The last time I could think of was a few years back on a Sunday nighter against San Diego and that feels like ages ago. If you're giving me Peyton and a field goal, I'm taking those odds.

Carolina (+7.5) at Dallas

Gabe: Carolina - This line is simply too big. Both of these teams are trying to get things on track. Carolina got their passing game together last week. Dallas would be a great team if they could eliminate some of the distractions. I think they got the novelty of the stadium out of their system and now they can play ball. I think Dallas wins, but it will be a lot closer than 7.

Dave: Carolina - I was going to write a piece on how overrated Tony Romo is but Tony Dorsett beat me to the punch. Yes, Carolina has screwed the pooch twice this season and yes, the Cowboys are at home, but they'll be without Marion Barber and I don't think Romo is the kind of guy who lets Dorsett's barbs not get to him. I like Dallas as well, but by only a field goal.