Wednesday, September 9, 2009

NFL Preview

In less than 24 hours, kickoff will commence on the new season of America's new favorite pastime. So, naturally, I took out the time to offer up some predictions for the '09 season which will either make me look like a genius or a complete tool. Either way, it's a win-win for me, because I've adjusted to the taste of crow. (Here's a secret: It's better with hot sauce.)

AFC East: New England Patriots-They've lost a lot on D(Mike Vrabel, Richard Seymour, Tedy Bruschi, Rodney Harrison), but Tom Brady is back and unless his knee snaps like Shawne Merriman after an episode of "Shot At Love With Tila Tequila", this team should run away with a defense weaker than Karen Sypher's alibi

AFC NORTH: Pittsburgh Steelers-They've committed to RB Willie Parker as their full-time back as opposed to a time share with Rashard Mendenhall. They have a new third receiver(Limas Sweed) and a new middle linebacker(Lawrence Timmons), which gives the defending champs youth and athleticism to a team needing both. The shaky offensive line combined with the distraction of Big Ben's legal issues are significant obstacles, but a repeat is not out of the question if the team can stay grounded(and healthy).

AFC SOUTH: Tennesee Titans-They were the best team in the NFL....then, the playoffs started. This year, they've revamped the air attack, re-signing aging veteran QB Kerry Collins and bringing in rookie WR Kenny Britt and former Steelers WR Nate Washington. As for the running game, the big news this offseason was running back LenDale White giving up tequila for the betterment of his career(something Shawne Merriman should have considered). The newly svelt White will team with 2nd-year man Chris Johnson to lead one of the NFL's most potent power-speed ground tandems. On defense, the team will replace overpaid DT Albert Haynesworth with their bevy of young unsung heroes, starting with DT Jason Jones. The onus, however, is on Collins. His ability to continue where he left off last season(at least, where he left off in December) will be a force to be reckoned with. If not, there's always Vince Young......(that sound was Titans fans cringing).

AFC WEST: San Diego Chargers-They're a Super Bowl contender playing in a division with three I-AA teams. That being said, this has to be the year for San Diego. The team could lose their top two running backs next year(Darren Sproles is a free agent, LaDainian Tomlinson will be 31) and the pressure is on Phillip Rivers now more than ever after signing his big contract a couple weeks ago. On defense, the team was hoping for the return of pass-rush dynamo Shawne Merriman, albeit on the field and not in the headlines. They also added rookie Larry English to improve a pass-rush that stalled without "Lights Out".

Wild Cards:

1. Baltimore Ravens-They went to the AFC Championship last year by going back to their old ways of hard-nosed rush attack and smashmouth defense. Now, they're a year older, which is a blessing for some(QB Joe Flacco) and a curse for others(LB Ray Lewis, WR Derrick Mason). If Flacco rises like some are predicting, this team will be hard to beat. However, if they show their age, they could be a huge letdown.

2. Houston Texans-This pick is not as much me buying the Texans as much as me not buying the Colts or, really, anybody else beyond the afforementioned five. The Texans are a team with a lot of promise. On offense, they are led by the troika of QB Matt Schaub, RB Steve Slaton, and WR Andre Johnson. On defense, they've built a solid foundation through their years of high draft picks with guys like DE Mario Williams, DT Amobi Okoye, CB Dunta Robinson and LBs Brian Cushing and DeMeco Ryans. Of course, this team's success rides on the health of the fragile Schaub, who has yet to make it a full season since coming to Houston.

NFC EAST: Philadelphia Eagles-It was a toss-up between the Eagles and Giants. Ultimately, the Eagles have far too much talent on both sides of the ball not to be legit Super Bowl contenders. They improved the offensive line with tackles Jason Peters and Stacy Andrews replacing Tra Thomas and Jon Runyan. They added deep threat Jeremy Maclin to go with an already speedy receiving core of Kevin Curtis and DeSean Jackson. They added depth to the secondary with the acquisition of Ellis Hobbs. Oh, and they signed some guy named Michael Vick to be their decoy/Wildcat QB. That being said, the Eagles have been a team under coach Andy Reid that has stumbled when the expectations rise. While the team's aggressive offseason gives no reason for this team to not steamroll the entire NFC, the Eagles in years past have always found an excuse to disappoint.

NFC NORTH: Green Bay Packers-Last year, injuries and poor defense down the stretch caused this team to go 6-10. This year, they've revamped the defense with a new defensive scheme(Dom Capers' 3-4) and some new rookie additions(1st rounders Clay Matthews and B.J. Raji). The defense also returns S Nick Collins and CB Charles Woodson, who along with CB Tramon Williams, were in the top 5 in interceptions last year and now get four games against turnover-happy QBs Brett Favre and Jay Cutler. On offense, Aaron Rodgers will look to last year's 4,000 yard, 32 TD debut as he now has added motivation with former mentor Favre in-division. The running game is still a question mark as RB Ryan Grant still needs to get out to a quicker start, but if this team stays healthy, they're a Super Bowl contender. Now, cue the homer chants!

NFC SOUTH: New Orleans Saints-The team that finished last in NFC South the past few years have either won the division or, as of last year, went to the playoffs. The Saints' prowess on offense is well-documented. QB Drew Brees aired it out to the tune of 5,000 yards last year, but the story this year is the improvements on defense. The team added Malcom Jenkins with their first round pick and his versatility will have him seeing time at corner and safety. Speaking of safety, the team added veteran Darren Sharper. They're still a little thin in the front seven and the possible suspensions of DEs Will Smith and Charles Grant certianly hurts, but the additions in the secondary and the new running game led by Pierre Thomas(with some guest appearences from Reggie Bush) should mean less shootouts and more W's.

NFC WEST: Seattle Seahawks-Like the Packers, Seattle was a team decimated by injuries. Their starters lost more games to injury than any team in history. Now, they're back and relatively healthy(LT Walter Jones and C Charles Spencer will miss time with injuries, as will CB Marcus Trufant). They also added some nice pieces to the offense in WR T.J. Houshmanzadeh and RB Edgerrin James. On defense, the team brought in DT Colin Cole, DE Cory Redding and drafted LB Aaron Curry. Those improvements combined with a cotton-soft defense make Seattle the team to beat and their status as Super Bowl contenders will depend mightily on the team's ability to squash the injury bug.

Wild Cards

1. New York Giants: They're right there with the Eagles as the class of the NFC. Their big issue is, obviously, the lack of a proven target for overpaid QB Eli Manning. Rookie Hakeem Nicks came on towards the end of preseason but the history of rookie wideouts breaking out in their first year isn't promising. That means the team will have to go back to what it has done best under coach Tom Coughlin: Running the ball down opposing defenses' throats and scaring the piss out of opposing QBs with their slew of pass rushers. This season, the Giants added to their vaunted pass rush by signing Chris Canty from Dallas as well as getting back DE Osi Umenyoira from last year's season-ending knee injury. The tough division does them no favors but playing the AFC West this year certianly gives them an edge over other wild-card contenders.

2. Chicago Bears-A weaker division(and schedule) gives them a slight edge over Carolina and Washington. It also helps that they brought in the big arm of young QB Jay Cutler. The question now becomes: Who does he throw to? There's former college teammate, Earl Bennett. There's blazing fast reformed cornerback Devin Hester. There's last year's breakout rookie, Matt Forte. While Cutler doesn't have the same weapons that he had in Denver, he does have something he didn't have during his stint with the Broncos: a defense. While a bit long in the tooth, the Bears still possess a top-notch defense led by Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs and Tommie Harris. I like Chicago over Minnesota because they have a distinct edge in coaching and, while Cutler is just as turnover prone as Favre, he's also 14 years younger and not coming off shoulder surgery.

Award Predictions

MVP: Drew Brees, QB, Saints-He really should have won it last year, even despite the 8-8 record and last place finish. Brady will be right there with him, but I can see Belichick taking the foot off the gas down the stretch more so than Payton.

Off. Player of the Year: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers: He ran for 1100 yards and 11 TDs on a bum toe. Now, he has Sproles to keep him fresh and he's more determined than ever after nearly being cut and hearing reports all summer on how he's washed up.

Def. Player of the Year: Mario Williams, DE, Texans: I think the Cowboys finish last this year, which kills DeMarcus Ware's candidacy here. I like Williams for 20 sacks this year as that defense continues to improve

Off. Rookie of the Year: Beanie Wells, RB, Cardinals: Not a strong offensive crowd this year. Niners rook Michael Crabtree would be a lock if he wasn't a complete knucklehead. Wells has a potent passing attack keeping defenses from stacking against the run and he's too big to not be a factor at the goalline. If the Jets get Brandon Marshall, I like Mark Sanchez's chances here, but right now, I'll roll the dice on Beanie staying healthy.

Def. Rookie of the Year: Aaron Curry, LB, Seahawks: Washington's Brian Orakpo could make his case, thanks to the presence of Albert Haynesworth in the middle, but it's hard not to take Curry here. He has too much athleticism to not be all over the place this year.

Playoff Predictions

AFC Championship: Chargers over Titans: It's now or never for the Chargers.

NFC Championship: Giants over Saints: I can't cosign the Eagles this year. I think the Vick signing will make McNabb paranoid and they have a long history of being a letdown when the expectations are high. I wanted to take Green Bay, but I just couldn't jinx my team and I'd have to see more than preseason dominance before I can fully back all the hype. As for the Giants, they run the ball well and their pass rush is the deepest I've ever seen. I'm tempted to back off the Saints after today's news about LT Jamaal Brown's hip surgery that will sideline him 6 weeks, but I think this is the year Drew Brees shows the world he's the best QB on the planet....just not against this Giants pass rush.

Super Bowl: Chargers 27, Giants 21: It's hard to pick a Norv Turner-coached team, but the Chargers have far too much talent and veteran leadership to blow it again this year. Of course, the same could be said about the Eagles but if I had to bet on either LT or McNabb folding under the pressure, I'm taking Donovan. Plus, what better story line than Eli, facing the team he whined his way off of in 2004, against Phillip Rivers, the only quarterback from the '04 Big Three to not win a ring yet?

--Dave

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