Dave had a flawless start to the 2009 NFL season by not only picking the Steelers not to cover but actually predicting the outcome of the game(Steelers winning by a field goal which, granted, isn't exactly predicting the Power Ball) Anyway, here's the rest of our picks for Week 1:
Note: These picks are against the spread.
Chiefs(+13) at Ravens
Dave: Ravens- When you fire your offensive coordinator a week before the season and are facing one of the top defenses in the league on the road without your franchise QB, I'd say your chances of winning are very, very low.
Gabe: Ravens - Their defense is still nasty and you have to believe in Flacco and their three-headed running game until they give you a reason not to. KC has had too much turmoil this off-season - New coach, new GM, firing the OC, demoting Dwayne Bowe to 3rd string for a few weeks, etc. The Ravens win by 2 touchdowns.
Gabe: Ravens - Their defense is still nasty and you have to believe in Flacco and their three-headed running game until they give you a reason not to. KC has had too much turmoil this off-season - New coach, new GM, firing the OC, demoting Dwayne Bowe to 3rd string for a few weeks, etc. The Ravens win by 2 touchdowns.
Eagles(-1) at Panthers
Dave: Eagles-I think this is going to be a messy season for the Panthers so long as Delhomme is their starting QB. That Arizona meltdown is going to haunt him like Brad Lidge after watching Albert Pujols' moon shot in the NLCS a few years ago. The Eagles are a bit overrated and overhyped and their opening day record isn't very good(4-6 in 10 seasons under Andy Reid) but I'll believe Delhomme put his playoff implosion behind him when I see it.
Gabe: Panthers - I think both teams are over-rated. They both have great potential on offense and good defenses. Like Dave said, this comes down to Delhomme. I think he does just enough and the Panthers win by a field goal or less.
Gabe: Panthers - I think both teams are over-rated. They both have great potential on offense and good defenses. Like Dave said, this comes down to Delhomme. I think he does just enough and the Panthers win by a field goal or less.
Lions(+13) at Saints
Dave: Lions-No, I don't think Detroit's 17-game losing streak ends here(though this might be their best shot at a W the next two months. Their next 5 games? Minnesota, Washington, at Chicago, Pittsburgh, at Green Bay before taking on the Rams at home. Look out, Seattle! Detroit might be making a run at your suicide rate!), but it's hard to expect a team, even one with an offense as explosive as New Orleans', will post a double digit win with a defense that horrid. Look, the Lions were terrible last year and this could very well be a laugher by halftime, but while it's hard to find a defender in Detroit capable of slowing down Drew Brees' and company, the same can be said about Lions WR Calvin Johnson and RB Kevin Smith. I think Matt Stafford, making his regular season debut, plays it safe early, airs it out late and the Lions lose by 10.
Gabe: Saints - The Lions still stink. Their starting a rookie QB on the road. The Saints' offense is incredible and the Lions have no answer for it. Calvin Johnson is amazing and Kevin Smith should have a break-out year, but the Lions have to get their feet wet first. The Saints' defense is not very good, but I think they will be helped by errant passes that turn into picks. I take the Saints to win by 14 or more.
Gabe: Saints - The Lions still stink. Their starting a rookie QB on the road. The Saints' offense is incredible and the Lions have no answer for it. Calvin Johnson is amazing and Kevin Smith should have a break-out year, but the Lions have to get their feet wet first. The Saints' defense is not very good, but I think they will be helped by errant passes that turn into picks. I take the Saints to win by 14 or more.
Vikings(-4) at Browns
Dave: Vikings- I'm still bewildered that a Vikings team that gave all the media experts a hard-on after they signed Brett Favre's rotting corpse is only giving four against a terrible Browns team. I was tempted to go the other way on this one strictly on the fact that Favre is a well-known turnover machine(as is AP) and Browns coach Eric Mangini might push all the chips to the middle of the table in a effort to spoil the Viking debut of the man who got him canned in New York. Then, Browns rookie sleeper James Davis got in a car accident and is 50-50 to play and Minnesota's Williams Wall was cleared to play after suspensions loomed after the StapCaps fiasco. So I like the Vikes to dominate, Favre to throw a pick for old time's sake, and AP to go nuts.
Gabe: Vikings - As the Vikings' writer on SportsTalkBuzz.com said, "Bet the Mortgage." The line on this game makes little sense to me. The Vikings have one of the best defenses in the league. They have the best running back in the league. The Browns stink out loud in every way. Quinn to Edwards might be a great passing combo by the end of the year, but not today. The Vikings will win big.
Gabe: Vikings - As the Vikings' writer on SportsTalkBuzz.com said, "Bet the Mortgage." The line on this game makes little sense to me. The Vikings have one of the best defenses in the league. They have the best running back in the league. The Browns stink out loud in every way. Quinn to Edwards might be a great passing combo by the end of the year, but not today. The Vikings will win big.
Dolphins(+4) at Falcons
Dave: Dolphins-Lost in all the talk over how improved the Falcons' offense is this year with the addition of future Hall of Famer/pass-catching fossil Tony Gonzalez is the fact that their defense, well, stinks. The Dolphins, on the other hand, improved on what was already a very good defense with the additions of former Phin Jason Taylor and former Giant/Raider Gibril Wilson. Plus, Miami has a new offensive weapon of its own in rookie QB/WR Pat White, whose role has been kept under wraps throughout preseason. I like the Phins to win outright, by 6.
Jaguars(+7) at Colts
Dave: Jaguars-The Colts were up and down last season. They got trounced in losses to the lowly Bears and Packers, but notched wins against the Ravens, Chargers, Patriots(granted, without Tom Brady) and the eventual champion Steelers. This year, they're without Hall of Fame coach Tony Dungy and longtime Peyton Manning sidekick Marvin Harrison. While the Jaguars sucked out loud last season and seem to have quit on coach Jack Del Rio, they have an improved offensive line and a new starting RB in Maurice Jones-Drew to at least make things competitive(keep in mind, as bad as Jacksonville was last year, they split the series with Indy and only lost by 6 in their Week 16 showdown), especially with Colts All-Pro safety Bob Sanders out.
Gabe: Jaguars - My pick is based totally on the fact that these two teams know each other very well and the Jags always give the Colts fits. History says this will be a close game, so I'll take the Colts to win, but by less than a touchdown.
Gabe: Jaguars - My pick is based totally on the fact that these two teams know each other very well and the Jags always give the Colts fits. History says this will be a close game, so I'll take the Colts to win, but by less than a touchdown.
Broncos(+4) at Bengals
Dave: Broncos-As bad as I think the Broncos will be this season, It's hard for me to pick a team that has the words "starting running back Cedric Benson" in its team preview.
Gabe: Bengals - The Broncos are a mess. The Bengals underachieve. I think the Bengals have too good of a passing game with Carson Palmer, Chad OchoCinco (who'll be back to his old form this year), and the resurgent Chris Henry. I like the Bengals to win outright.
Gabe: Bengals - The Broncos are a mess. The Bengals underachieve. I think the Bengals have too good of a passing game with Carson Palmer, Chad OchoCinco (who'll be back to his old form this year), and the resurgent Chris Henry. I like the Bengals to win outright.
Cowboys(-6) at Buccaneers
Dave: Cowboys- Here's a fun mental image to picture between now and kickoff: Bucs QB Byron Leftwich and his 6-minute windup delivery going against DeMarcus Ware, whose in a contract year.
Gabe: Cowboys - The Bucs are this year's Lions. DeMarcus Ware and Marion Barber will wreak havoc. Cowboys win big.
Gabe: Cowboys - The Bucs are this year's Lions. DeMarcus Ware and Marion Barber will wreak havoc. Cowboys win big.
Jets(+5) at Texans
Dave: Jets- The Jets are better than people will give them credit for. They have a solid defense led by one of the best defensive minds in the league in Rex Ryan and they have a three-pronged rushing attack of Thomas Jones, Leon Washington and rookie Shonn Greene. A lot is being made over Mark Sanchez's inexperience and how that will translate in his debut. Houston is a formidable team with plenty of sleeper buzz and they're young and athletic on both sides of the ball, but their secondary has been decimated by injuries and, even with all the hype, they aren't a proven enough team to make me reluctant about taking a rookie QB on the road. I like the Jets by 7.
Gabe: Texans - This is the year it finally all comes together for the Texans. I know they have no run defense, but they have incredible pass rushers. Despite what Dave says, the Texans secondary is going to be better than most people think. They have two injuries but both spots have been filled by former starters and rookie Brice McCain has been playing great. Mark Sanchez will be in for a long day. On offense the Texans will score early and often. WR Andre Johnson is the best in the league. As long as Schaub is healthy the Texans offense will be great. I like the Texans to win big.
Gabe: Texans - This is the year it finally all comes together for the Texans. I know they have no run defense, but they have incredible pass rushers. Despite what Dave says, the Texans secondary is going to be better than most people think. They have two injuries but both spots have been filled by former starters and rookie Brice McCain has been playing great. Mark Sanchez will be in for a long day. On offense the Texans will score early and often. WR Andre Johnson is the best in the league. As long as Schaub is healthy the Texans offense will be great. I like the Texans to win big.
Rams(+8.5) at Seahawks
Dave: Seahawks- 8.5 points seems like a trap considering the Seahawks are thin on the offensive line without Walter Jones and Charles Spencer and are facing a head coach in the Rams Steve Spagnuolo who knows how to bring a pass rush. The Rams, however, haven't dusted off QB Marc Bulger and WR Donnie Avery yet this season and their rust puts them at serious disadvantage against a very aggressive Seahawks defense. The Rams are also soft up the middle, which doesn't bode well for them against the combo of Edgerrin James and Julius Jones. 8.5 is a bit steep, but I'm buying the Seahawks this year.
Gabe: Seahawks - The Rams are probably the second-worst team in the league. I really don't think Donnie Avery is that good. The Rams have one player on offense, Stephen Jackson, and he never stays healthy. Steve Spagnulo knows how to run a defense, but he needs personnel first. The Seahawks offense will be good this year, so they will win big.
Gabe: Seahawks - The Rams are probably the second-worst team in the league. I really don't think Donnie Avery is that good. The Rams have one player on offense, Stephen Jackson, and he never stays healthy. Steve Spagnulo knows how to run a defense, but he needs personnel first. The Seahawks offense will be good this year, so they will win big.
Redskins(+6.5) at Giants
Dave: Giants-I'm not a big fan of Eli Manning. I think he's overpaid. I think he's overrated and, while I have the Giants in the Super Bowl, I think that will be in spite of Eli rather than because of him. However, I'm even lower on Jason Campbell. He might be the worst starting QB in the league and he's going up against (hyperbole alert) the best pass rush in the game. I think new Redskins DT Albert Haynesworth and rookie LB Brian Orakpo slow the running game and force Eli to make plays with his underwhelming receiving core, but I think Big Blue flirts with the donut here as Campbell continues to struggle mightily. Also, as a side bet, I'm putting the over/under on the number of times overpaid CB DeAngelo Hall gets burnt deep this game at 3.
Gabe: Giants - The Giants pass rush is scary. Their running game wears opposing defenses out. Not only is Jason Campbell not good, but his receiving corps stinks. The Redskins will have trouble scoring and the Giants offense will put up a few points. I think the Giants defense will get a score too, and they will win by at least a touchdown.
49ers(+6.5) at Cardinals
Dave: 49ers-This will be a closer game then the spread would have you believe. The Niners can run the ball with Frank Gore and rookie Glen Coffee and their defense under coach Mike Singletary is vastly underrated. Also, while the Cardinals are the defending NFC Champs, remember that this is the same defense that got shredded for 6 TDs by Brett Favre's rotting corpse last season. Niners QB Shaun Hill, while not exactly Brett Favre, was efficient down the stretch when Singletary took over. Cards win this one, but don't cover after Larry Fitzgerald succumbs to the Madden Curse.
Gabe: 49ers - I think the '9ers are going to win this one outright, in my...wait for it...upset special! Kurt Warner is going to look old in a hurry. The 49ers offense is going to be decent and the Cardinals defense can be carved up. The 49ers will win.
Gabe: 49ers - I think the '9ers are going to win this one outright, in my...wait for it...upset special! Kurt Warner is going to look old in a hurry. The 49ers offense is going to be decent and the Cardinals defense can be carved up. The 49ers will win.
Bears(+3.5) at Packers
Dave: Packers-Fact: Packers FS Nick Collins was 2nd in the NFL in interceptions with 7 last year and led the league with 3 TDs. Fact: Packers CB Charles Woodson tied Collins with 7 picks and had 2 defensive touchdowns. Fact: Nickel back Tramon Williams had 5 interceptions, good for a 7-way tie for 6th. Fact: New Bears QB Jay Cutler threw 18 picks last year, 2nd most in the NFL behind Brett Favre's Rotting Corpse, while throwing to Pro Bowl WR Brandon Marshall and top rookie Eddie Royal. Fact: Bears WRs Devin Hester and Earl Bennett are not as good as Marshall and Royal. Packers win by 10.
Gabe: Packers - Dave pretty much covered it. Cutler throws a lot of picks. The Packers make a lot of picks. Done and done. Packers by a touchdown.
Gabe: Packers - Dave pretty much covered it. Cutler throws a lot of picks. The Packers make a lot of picks. Done and done. Packers by a touchdown.
Bills(+10.5) at Patriots
Dave: Bills-A couple of years ago, the Bills were double-digit underdogs to a then-undefeated Cowboys team on a Monday nighter in Buffalo. The Bills, led by then-backup QB Trent Edwards, managed to capitalize on a few key Tony Romo mistakes(5 INTs) and made it a game before inevitably losing by 1. On Monday night, the Bills will go into New England(who have won the last 11 meetings between the two teams by an average of 20.5 points) to face a Patriots team that lost a lot of talent on defense and has a QB in Tom Brady who hasn't played a full game in nearly a year. An upset is unlikely, but could Buffalo(who is also improved with the additions of T.O. and rookie DE Aaron Maybin) make it close while Brady shakes off the rust? I can buy that. Pats by 9.
Gabe: Patriots - The Patriots are back, at least on offense. Tom Brady looks good. They still have about 13 guys who can catch a pass. The last time Tom Brady played a full season he threw for something like 17,500 yards and 134 touchdowns (those numbers are estimates) with pretty much the same receiving corps. They are old on defense, but their offense is overwhelming. Oh, and I give T.O. about 3 offensive series before he implodes and starts yelling at Trent Edwards. Pats win big.
Gabe: Patriots - The Patriots are back, at least on offense. Tom Brady looks good. They still have about 13 guys who can catch a pass. The last time Tom Brady played a full season he threw for something like 17,500 yards and 134 touchdowns (those numbers are estimates) with pretty much the same receiving corps. They are old on defense, but their offense is overwhelming. Oh, and I give T.O. about 3 offensive series before he implodes and starts yelling at Trent Edwards. Pats win big.
Chargers(-9.5) at Raiders
Dave: Chargers- If I have to explain this one to you, you probably shouldn't be reading this. Chargers by 21.
Gabe: Chargers - If the Raiders were in the Pac-10 they would lose to USC, Oregon, and maybe Oregon State. The Chargers win, big.
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