Wondering What If...

A week from Sunday, Super Bowl XLV will showcase two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. One, a man looking for his third ring in seven years and attempting to put a bow on what was a trying beginning to the season. The other, a rising star who has spent the last three seasons fighting his way out of an icon's shadow. The story here isn't so much about Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers or even about how amazing it is that a team that spent the first month without its franchise QB will face the NFL's most beat-up roster(15 players on the IR, 91 games lost combined by starters due to injury) for the Lombardi Trophy.

The story that seems to go under the radar is that both QBs were a couple rash decisions away from not standing behind center for their current teams in the Super Bowl. Roethlisberger, as you may have heard, had quite the offseason. Embroiled in not one but two sexual assault charges, rumors were flying this past spring about the Steelers finally becoming fed up with their two-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback's troublesome excursions and were putting him on the trading block. No serious offer was ever discussed and it seems now the "reports" were mainly a scare tactic to get Big Ben's head out of the clouds. Rodgers, meanwhile, looked like a lock to be the #1 pick of the 2005 NFL Draft and staying close to home with San Francisco 49ers. However, in the last remaining days leading up to Draft Day, San Fran pulled an about-face and went with Utah wunderkind Alex Smith as their new franchise QB. Rodgers slid all the way to 24th and was the last man standing in the green room when his name was called as the latest heir apparent to Brett Favre. With Favre, as usual, undecided on when he was going to hang 'em up, Rodgers toiled on the bench behind the Packers legend and was even mentioned in trade talks with Oakland in exchange for WR Randy Moss(a report that was vehemently denied by Packers GM Ted Thompson).

So, where would these franchises be if their current faces were posing for pictures in different uniforms? Well, I'll offer up my best guesses....one question at a time.

Question: What if the Steelers trade Ben Roethlisberger before the 2010 NFL Draft?

The Roethlisberger talks never really got behind speculation. The Raiders, obviously, were interested(because they needed a QB and have a penchant for knuckleheads). Perhaps so were the Browns and Panthers. The team, however, that made the most sense was St. Louis, which needed a QB badly and had a huge trade chip in the # 1 overall pick. For argument's sake, let's say the Rams offer up the #1 pick(which would have been Sam Bradford, regardless, since "reports" were circulating that some within the Steelers organization liked Bradford a lot) and next year's first(Sure, Roethlisberger is worth more, but this was a guy facing rape accusations that was about to miss the first four games of the season. As valuable as he may be as one of the 5 or 10 best QBs in football, it goes without saying that there was risk involved in acquiring Ben Roethlisberger).

So, the Steelers, now picking first in 2010, take Bradford(although imagine a Steelers defensive line with Aaron Smith, Casey Hampton and Ndomukong Suh.....scary), the Heisman winner out of Oklahoma coming off a tumultuous final season with the Sooners that saw him blow out his shoulder not once but twice. Bradford sits the bench his first year because there's no way the Steelers put someone coming off two shoulder surgeries behind an offensive line as bad as Pittsburgh's(Roethlisberger's size and elusiveness has overshadowed just how horrible this Steeler O-line is. It's atrocious. If Bradford makes opening day starter in Pittsburgh as a rookie, he becomes the next David Carr. I'd bet my life on it. Bradford just doesn't have the size to take the punishment Ben has taken over the years in Pittsburgh. Now, some of Ben's punishment is due to him taking too long getting rid of the ball but, oddly enough, his strength in getting the ball while he's getting hit or his ability to shake off tacklers had led to a lot of the big plays Ben has famously made....like the Santonio Holmes TD that won him the Super Bowl against Arizona. Bradford's not 6'6 260 pounds and, while he showed some toughness in lasting a full season with the Rams, I don't like his chances lining up against a much worse offensive line). Meanwhile, in St. Louis, the Rams drop all four games Roethlisberger misses due to suspension, yet still finish 7-9 because Roethlisberger makes them that much better in a weak NFC West. Assuming the Rams suffer the same fate with Ben that they did with Bradford, the Steelers would be picking in 2011 where St. Louis finds themselves now: 15th. That puts Pittsburgh in the running for a tackle like, say, Mississippi State's Derek Sherrod or Wisconsin's Gabe Carimi or maybe they go corner and take a guy like Brandon Harris out of The U.

As for the Roethlisberger-less/Charlie Batch-led Steelers in 2010, if Batch remains whole all season, the Steelers have enough talent to eek into the playoffs as a wild card. That means the division goes to Baltimore instead of Pittsburgh, and the Ravens end up facing the Jets in Round 2(after their first round bye) instead of having to go into Heinz Field and face the Steelers. I'll give the edge to Baltimore to beat New York and then, subsequently, New England(who would beat a Batch-led Steelers team at home) and we might be looking at a Ravens-Packers Super Bowl(pending the results of "What If?" scenario #2) that inevitably forces me(a Packers fan) and my friend Carlos(a diehard Ravens fan) to watch the Super Bowl three area codes from each other to avoid the possibility of a brawl not unlike the police brutality scene in "The Fighter". Bradford takes over in 2011 and his precision passing combined with an arsenal of Mike Wallace, Heath Miller and Hines Ward makes Steelers fans happy, but ultimately makes them miss Big Ben due to Bradford's lack of postseason success. As for the Rams in 2011 in beyond, they own the West for the next few years as the Roethlisberger becomes the only legit QB in a weak NFC West. He makes a few playoff appearances but the overall lack of talent on the Rams roster keeps him from the elusive third ring he would be playing for next Sunday. Both teams end up happy, but probably not nearly as successful as they currently are.

Question #2: What if the 49ers take Aaron Rodgers instead of Alex Smith?

This was one of the few under-the-radar draft blunders that, looking back now, has emerged into a "What the fuck were they thinking?" now that we've seen what both quarterbacks can do. It would be one thing if Rodgers was an out-of-nowhere nobody that the Packers reached for at 24 in 2005 that became a superstar after finally getting his shot. That wasn't the case. Rodgers was a stud at Cal(something Niners suits should have known given their proximity) and had the momentum as the #1 pick up until the final hours when Smith charmed San Francisco with his big brain and upside. The 2005 Draft was terrible anyway. Of the 32 first round picks, four have developed into stars(Rodgers, Roddy White, DeMarcus Ware, Logan Mankins), a few others became quality starters that have kind of flamed out(Antrel Rolle, Braylon Edwards, Ronnie Brown, Shawne Merriman, Cadillac Williams and Jammal Brown) and a couple have been serviceable(Heath Miller and, over the last two years, Cedric Benson). So, San Francisco might have been fucked either way because, while Rodgers has become a very good QB in Green Bay, he wouldn't have the luxury of being mentored by a guy like Favre and eventually becoming a starter with an immense amount of talent around him(Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Ryan Grant, Jermichael Finley, James Jones, etc). That's not to discredit Rodgers' accomplishments with the Packers, but it would be foolish to think he doesn't owe some of his success to his supporting cast.

That being said, Rodgers would still have done better than Smith did. For one, Rodgers is a more accurate thrower and, while both guys had decent mobility, Rodgers has proven less likely to panic when the rush is coming(at least this season) than Smith has over his career. Still, what happens if Rodgers is taken is a bit harder to sketch out than the Roethlisberger scenario. My take is Rodgers struggles early on, mainly because of the lack of talent around him and lack of a mentor, but also because there's no embarrassing draft downward spiral to help develop that chip on his shoulder. Rodgers would be going from a guy who wants to prove people wrong and waiting for his chance to do so behind a legendary QB to an overpaid rookie forced to turn around a once-proud franchise with nothing around him. Sure, once the Niners got some talent(assuming they make the same picks they made under the Smith era and end up with the likes of Frank Gore, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree), Rodgers would probably hit his stride in a bad division, but would he be making a Super Bowl in his sixth year? Highly doubtful. There's no telling how much of Rodgers' drive was built up from sitting for hours in the green room as well as the Favre unretirement fiasco in 2008. When Favre came back and went to the Jets, you could tell there was a part of Aaron that wanted to show up his old teacher(and statistically, he did, it's just the wins didn't back up the numbers, though both teams missed the playoffs). In San Fran, Rodgers doesn't have that same motivation(unless he becomes obsessed with showing up the legends of Joe Montana and Steve Young, guys he grew up idolizing growing up in California) to go out and kill it every night. He just becomes a guy on a struggling team waiting for management to build a franchise around him. In other words, he becomes a slightly more successful version of Smith.

As for Smith, given how teams passed up on Rodgers in '05, I'd like to think the same slide would occur in Alex's case unless you can be sold on him ending up in Cleveland(picking 3rd and, thus, passing on Edwards for Smith), Tampa Bay(5th, who inevitably took Williams, the ROTY in '05) or Tennessee(6th, famously taking Pacman Jones....I'd like to think Smith goes here if given a do-over, but more likely, the Titans opt for Rolle or maybe even Merriman). So, let's say, Smith and Rodgers switch spots and Smith is now Favre's successor. Does he succeed? Probably not. For one, given his small hands and lack of arm strength, Smith would probably struggle throwing into the gusting winds of Green Bay during the winter months. If Smith wasn't lighting it up in sunny San Francisco, I can't see him throwing for 4,000 yards annually in Wisconsin. There's also the Favre factor. Thompson and head coach Mike McCarthy saw enough of Rodgers in practice over the years to, depending on who you believe, strongly coerce Favre into retiring in 2008. If Favre unretires like he inevitably did, would Smith be a good enough reason to trade Brett like the Packers eventually did? I don't think so. Assuming they do though, I see Smith struggling on the frozen tundra. For all his smarts and ability to pick up whatever Favre would be putting down, the fact of the matter is the boy struggled handling snaps because he had baby hands. He also doesn't have Rodgers' zip on deep throws. So, if Smith gets his shot in '08 to lead the Packers, even with a solid supporting cast and the same chip on the shoulder that pushed A-Rod, it's hard to believe Smith thrives in Green Bay. Inevitably, Favre leaves, Smith takes over and, much like Dallas in the post-Aikman years, the Packers search for years to find their QB.

At the end of the day, both questions are pretty much moot points. Rodgers is starring for Green Bay while San Francisco will be looking to take another QB this April while Niners fans will spend next Sunday watching the one that got away, and St. Louis and Pittsburgh aren't losing any sleep over not making what would have been the biggest trade of the last 10 years. Still, for all the stories that will be told over the next two weeks, the most interesting one involves the two guys who almost weren't here to tell it.

Dumb Honest Question of the Week

Normally, stupid questions lead to very obvious answers, like "Does Drake suck?" (Yes!), "Do you think Olivia Munn is hot?" (Without question.), or "Would the Black Eyed Peas survive without Fergie?" (Not a chance.).

Simple questions like these are usually dismissed with simple answers and they fail to fulfill the actual intent of the question, which is to garner an explanation or discussion. That's why, each week, I will ask a stupid question that I think deserves an honest explanation and, because I enjoy having one-sided conversations with myself, I'll offer up my own takes on the matter at hand(and you, the five or six loyal readers left in the world, can offer up your thoughts.).

Dumb Honest Question of the Week: Is Carmelo Anthony Getting Traded?

A month ago, you probably would have responded to this with a resounding yes. Now that the Nets have said they pulled out of the 'Melo Sweepstakes? Not as certain. I've been saying for months that Denver's best move, if they intend on getting something for Anthony before he departs as a free agent this summer, was to just send him to the Knicks(the one place 'Melo has publicly said he'd agree to go to). Now, it seems like it is Denver's only move. 'Melo's reps have tried to get Chicago back into the discussion, but they won't part with young big man Joakim Noah. Dallas and Houston are in the mix, but I refuse to believe they can offer something MUCH better than what the Knicks can offer(though Houston has Yao's expiring contract and New York's 2012 first rounder. Beyond that? Meh.). None of what is on the table for Denver is as enticing as what New Jersey was going to give up(draft picks, Derrick Favors, Anthony Morrow, and Devin Harris). That offer's dead now.

So, I reiterate......is Carmelo Anthony getting traded?

If the Nuggets aren't happy with what's out there for 'Melo, why trade him? What's wrong with going to 'Melo's handlers and saying "Look, we're not trading him. We're going to make you leave us this summer because we aren't take a deal we don't like to make him happy somewhere else!"? Right now, the Nuggets are the 7th seed in the West(which would pit them against the Lakers if the season ended today). If Denver makes a statement saying "We've tried to make a deal happen for months. We don't like what's out there. We're going to keep Carmelo and take our chances after the season.", doesn't that allow the rest of the team to breathe a sigh of relief and the team can work on making a 2nd half run in hopes that it will change 'Melo's mind. You know why you don't hear anymore trade whispers out of New Orleans about Chris Paul? Because the Hornets went from a lottery team last year to the last undefeated team to lose this season and are on an 8-game win streak that's seen them blow out Atlanta and San Antonio on back to back nights as well wins against Orlando and Memphis. Winning changes everything. As bad as 'Melo wants to play his home games in the Garden, he'd be a fool to think that the Knicks team he'd join now would be anywhere near as good as the Nuggets team he's currently on. If at the end of the season, 'Melo still wants New York. So be it, but the Nuggets have to make a decision. No more sitting on the fence hoping someone magically caves to their demands. The Bulls don't need Carmelo. Neither does Dallas. So, you're left with choosing behind these two options:

Door #1: You accept the Knicks offer of some kind of combination of Danilo Gallinari, Landry Fields, Wilson Chandler and their 2014 first rounder(unless they can get a more current pick in exchange for Anthony Randolph). Obviously, it's not as good as the Nets' offer but, unlike New Jersey's offer, this one is still on the table. Gallinari is a decent enough shooter to have a role on this team. Chandler provides good versatility as a combo forward who can play three positions. Fields is feisty guard who can be a spark off the bench. As for the 2014 pick, you never know what that may turn into. As for Houston and Dallas? Given the Nuggets' persistence to get back at least something resembling a building block in exchange for 'Melo, I can't see them not asking for either Luis Scola from the Rockets or Rodrigue Beaubois from the Mavs(in both cases, I see Denver getting hung up on, especially since 'Melo won't re-sign with either of them). Unless, you're swapping 'Melo for some expirings and draft picks and I'm not sure that's a better offer than New York's(even with Houston holding the Knicks' first rounder next year). The Knicks have to be considered the only horse left in the race, and if Denver feels it absolutely has to get rid of Anthony to salvage this season, then they need to strike a deal with Knicks soon.

Door #2: You keep Carmelo Anthony. GMs and front office suits in every sport constantly spout cliches about the damaging effects giving in to a player's demands has on the rest of the team. If the Nuggets give in to Carmelo, who knows if it causes a rippling effect, right? Not only that, but look at what the constant "Is Carmelo leaving?" talk has done to this team. There was the weeks of speculation that Chauncey Billups was accompanying Carmelo to the Garden State, which no doubt distracted Chauncey. There's the obvious overwhelming sense of concern any team has to have when dealing with the possibility of its best player being shipped away at any moment. You've pissed off the fans and now they've turned on the face of their franchise. All of these things are red flags, but they are all fixable. By shutting down shop on the Carmelo Sweepstakes, the Nuggets can focus on this season and remove most of the distractions. You can control the boo birds screaming at Carmelo. That ship has sailed for now. However, by reassuring the other guys on this team that this group will stay in tact for the next four or five months, it removes the potential of uncertainty that has tainted this team all year. On paper, a roster of 'Melo, Billups, Kenyon Martin, Chris Anderson, Nene, J.R. Smith, and Ty Lawson, with George Karl leading them makes Denver a dangerous dark horse heading toward the playoffs. Plus, with the possibility of going anywhere this season shot down for 'Melo, you get the next four months of Anthony going into full-on "Javy Lopez Contract Year Ball Out" mode to try to drive up his value. That has to be worth a shot, right?

There you have it. What seemed like a near-certainty the last few months now boils down to two potential paths for Denver(There's also this scenario proposed by Bill Simmons, which seems way too intriguing to actually happen): Strike the best deal available right now with the team 'Melo's been pining over for months......or don't. No more posturing. No more waffling. Brett Favre isn't running this team. You either shit or get off the pot.

My prediction for how this "Melodrama"(as ESPN has coined for this whole ordeal, which was cute at first but significantly more cheesy as it becomes more and more overused) is this: Having mismanaged this whole situation from the get-go, the Nuggets spite the Knicks(whom they blame for planting the seeds in 'Melo's brain about leaving Colorado) and take a poo-poo platter of picks, Yao's rotting carcass, Shane Battier and either Patrick Patterson or Jordan Hill from Houston. The 'Melo-Kevin Martin-Aaron Brooks trio works for the rest of the season and Houston(which is five games out of the 8 seed in the West), eeks into the playoffs while Denver drops out. After the season, 'Melo tries to build some suspense by flirting with Chicago and maybe even staying in Houston before eventually going where everyone expected him to be three months ago: Teaming up with Amare Stoudemire in New York. From there, 'Melo and Amare start publicly recruiting Chris Paul(a free agent in 2012) and we go through this drama once again in New Orleans as I(a Hornets fan for the past 15 years) pull the rest of my hair out over Paul's inevitable departure. Denver, on the other hand, goes into the tank after Yao inevitably retires and Battier signs elsewhere(for the sake of argument, let's say San Antonio). In a weak draft, Denver gets nothing of significance from their Houston haul. George Karl quits and the Kroenkes clean house with the front office. Denver goes back to not being relevant in the sport of basketball and David Stern jumps for joy as basketball matters again in the Big Apple.

There are always going to be dumb questions that yield dumb answers and, in the end, dumb results. This is just the start of things....and, for the record, I'd pounce on that Clippers deal Simmons proposes in his 'Melo piece if Donald Sterling wants to make a play for Anthony...but, I thought the same thing about LeBron going to the Clippers a year ago. These things never work out the way you think. That's why we ask the questions.

Milk Carton All-Star of the Week: Johnnie Morton

For centuries, the sports world has seen many great two-sport athletes.....

.....Johnnie Morton was not one of them.

For 11 seasons, Morton moonlighted as a very good #2 wide receiver for the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs. He never made the Pro Bowl. He never had a memorable season. He finished in the top 10 in receptions just once(1997), and his career-high for touchdowns in a single season was 8(1995). His most notable achievement may have came in 2001 when, during an interview following the Lions first win after 12 straight losses, he told the world that Jay Leno can kiss his ass, after Leno had ripped Detroit for weeks during the 0-12 start. Morton was the quintessential second-fiddle, most recognizably to one of the NFL's all-time ugliest men, Herman Moore. After eight years of floundering in Motown, Morton went to Kansas City where he continued to be both irrelevant and constantly mistaken for one of the members of BlackStreet. After three seasons with the Chiefs, Morton moved on to San Francisco, where he couldn't even make it out of camp and then called it career.

Refusing to realize he had spent his athletic potential, Morton decided to make a mockery of the emerging world of mixed-martial arts by agreeing to fight a man named Bernard Ackah, despite admittedly only training for a couple months. Ackah responded to Morton's lack of preparation by knocking Morton the fuck out in 38 seconds. After the fight, Morton tested positive for anabolic steroids, which further proves Barry Bonds' point that performance-enhancing drugs can only take you so far without actual athletic skill.

With his license in question, Morton will probably finish his fighting career with the same record as Rihanna(0-1). As for his football career, Morton finished with 624 catches for 8,719 yards and 43 TDs in 11 seasons. When doing research on Morton, Football Reference told me to see also Rob Moore(a nobody wideout for the Cardinals) and Terry Glenn(a significantly better wideout, once famously referred to by Bill Parcells as "she").

So, let's give a round of applause for a man with soft hands, a glass chin, and a clamoring for other men to smooch his caboose.......Johnnie Morton, everybody!

Conference Championship Picks

Eventhough I was way off on my Divisional picks, the outcomes of last week's games offered more "hmm..." than surprises. For one, no reason Baltimore should have lost to Pittsburgh after being two scores at halftime. You can point to some suspect calls(most notably, the "hold" on what would have been the go-ahead punt return TD) but that argument is moot if Flacco plays like a legit QB in the 2nd half and Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmanzadeh don't get the Roberto Duran hands at the worst possible moments.

I thought Atlanta and New England would put up more of a fight. The Pats looked like they were simply outcoached and outhustled by a Jets team that absolutely needed that win to back up a season's worth of talking coming out of the Meadowlands. The Falcons, meanwhile, never got off the team bus, and you can feel the air come out of the tires right after Tramon Williams picked off Matt Ryan and ran it back 70 yards for a touchdown to close the first half.

As for Seattle, I picked them more because I had very little faith in Chicago than it was belief that the Seahawks were the better team. Now, we sit a home win at Soldier Field from two weeks of talking ourselves into the Bears being the best team in the NFC. It's been a weird year. Here's my picks for who is going to Dallas:

Packers (-3.5) at Bears

Pick: Bears - Obviously, there's the reverse jinx in play, but also, given how hard Green Bay has had to play just to get here, isn't it possible they don't come out firing like they did in Atlanta and we're looking at something closer to the Week 17 7-3 barnburner? My mind can't comprehend a scenario where the Bears represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, but that doesn't mean Chicago is terrible. Still, if you're a Bears fan, you're relying on QB with a knack for throwing picks, playing behind a offensive line that's gotten him sacked 52 times, facing a defense that finished in the Top 2 in sacks and interceptions.....Yikes. So why do I have Chicago here? Because current weather reports have this game being played in the low 20s with snow being a possibility. Do I think that will shut down Green Bay's passing attack completely? Of course not....they play in GREEN BAY, for shit's sake! But I can see both teams feeling each other out, playing conservative for the first half, and the game becomes more a defensive struggle than a shootout. I think Green Bay still pulls this one out because all the momentum is on their side and, in a quarterback's league, you have to take Rodgers over Cutler here, but I think Chicago's D keeps them in it before a Cutler pick down the stretch seals a 3-point Packers win.

Jets (+3.5) at Steelers

Pick: Jets - Of the possible AFC Championship scenarios we were faced with last week, I knew this was going to be the hardest one to pick. I wasn't impressed with Pittsburgh last week. I thought some iffy officiating and some really costly turnovers by Baltimore put them back into a game they should have lost. The Steeler D is also a different animal with DE Aaron Smith out. The Jets, meanwhile, have shut down the two best QBs in the league, on the road, and now get Big Ben, who is a home win away from his third Super Bowl appearance in 7 years. The presence of Darrelle Revis means Roethlisberger isn't going to be connecting on bombs downfield with the same ease he had against Baltimore. For the Steelers to win, they need a big game out of Rashard Mendenhall to keep this aggressive Jets D honest. I'm going with Gang Green here because I think they'll run the ball better than Pittsburgh and the revenge factor for Santonio Holmes gives them a slight edge. So, for those scoring at home, we may be looking at the first Super Bowl ever featuring two 6 seeds. Like I said in the opening paragraphs, this has been a weird season. Tonight, it will only get weirder. Jets by 6.

2010 NFL Postseason Awards

The NFL regular season ended a couple of weeks ago and, with the conference championship games upon us, that means announcements for this season's awards should be made in the next week or so. The 2010 season offered up a couple of nice stories(The comeback of Mike Vick, the rapid deteriations of Donovan McNabb and Brett Favre, the emergence of Arian Foster, Tom Brady's pick-free streak) but what it didn't offer was suspense(unless you count the nervousness amongst the NFL fan community and fantasy football advocates about a pending stoppage).

So, with that lack of suspense theme in mind, I took it upon myself to hand out some hardware eventhough these awards were pretty much decided in December. Enjoy anyway.

Coach of the Year: Raheem Morris, Tampa Bay Bucs - I don't care that the Bucs didn't make the playoffs, they should have. Morris emerged this season from a guy I thought was going to be one of the first coaches to get canned to one of the league's rising young coaches. He made the Bucs a legit contender with a second-year QB in Josh Freeman(who developed leaps and bounds this year) and a couple solid rookies(one of which being former Oregon fisticuffs specialist LaGarrette Blount, who went undrafted than struggled to make a roster for Tennessee before becoming Tampa Bay's lead back after injuries forced him into the lineup), the best of which being wideout Mike Williams. Morris also spearheaded a defense with no real superstars(beyond veteran corner Ronde Barber, who is a couple years past his prime) and has the Bucs in position to be a scary team in 2011(if there's football, of course). You can give the nod to Mike Smith in Atlanta or Bill Belichick in New England, but my money goes to the most unlikely of candidates who turned a team that nobody believed in to one that is now fun to watch.



Comeback Player of the Year: Michael Vick, QB, Eagles - Really? I need to explain this one? Vick resurrected his career after many left him for dead following the nearly two years he spent in prison and saved Andy Reid's job by not only legitimizing the Donovan McNabb trade but by not forcing Big Red to try to make a winner out of former 2nd round wunderkind Kevin Kolb(I'm still not sold on Kolb. The Eagles win 7 games this season if he's the starter the entire year. I stand by that.) Vick put himself in the MVP contention after going nuts on the Redskins on a dreary Monday night at FedEx Field(20-28, 331 yards passing, 80 yards rushing, 6 total TDs). Granted, Vick probably didn't need to have the season he had(3,018 yards passing, 676 yards rushing, 21 passing TDs, 9 rushing TDs, 6 INTs) to take home this award because there weren't many viable candidates but he deserves to win something for what would have been an MVP-winning season if not for the supreme efforts of the man we'll talk about a little later.


Offensive Rookie of the Year: Sam Bradford, QB, Rams - I deserve a big plate of crow here because I really thought Bradford was going to flop given his shoulder issues and the fact that he was drafted by a team with a poor offensive line and no real weapons beyond its injury prone Pro Bowl RB. Still, 3,500 yards and 18 TDs on a team that lost its two leading receivers before Halloween and had Bradford completing passes to guys named Danny Amendola and Daniel Fells is pretty damn impressive. Like Vick, Bradford's helped by the fact there aren't many challengers to the throne(except maybe the aforementioned Mike Williams) but his success and the fact that he got the Rams thisclose to winning the NFC West legitimizes his standing as last year's #1 overall pick when most of the world was clamoring for St. Louis to select a boy named Suh.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: (tie) Ndomukong Suh, DT, Lions/Devin McCourtey, CB Patriots - I'm not one to ride the fence and I know there will be flack from people who say I'm overrating McCourtey because he went to Rutgers, but that's not the case. Suh was legitimately dominant(66 tackles, 10 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 1 INT) for a Lions defense that didn't have many other playmakers on it. His presence alone makes Detroit a scary young team next year, especially if they can add another piece in this April's Draft(like, say, Suh's college teammate at Nebraska, CB Prince Amukamara). McCourtey was equally solid. On a Patriots defense that didn't put much pressure on the QB because of its lack of a proven pass rusher, McCourtey still finished 2nd in the NFL with 7 INTs(behind Baltimore's Ed Reed, who deserves props for still leading the NFL in interceptions despite missing the first 8 games of the season) and racked up 82 tackles, a sack, and forced two fumbles. Both were shoe-ins for the Pro Bowl. Both were the best defenders on their respective defenses. Both won the exact amount of playoff games(zero....sorry, Patriots fans). You can make the case for either, or do like I reluctantly did, and make the case for both.

Defensive Player of the Year: Clay Matthews, LB, Packers - Again, homer accusations are going to be in effect here, but I defy you to watch one of "The Ultimate Warrior"'s games from start to finish and not be in awe. The man is a certified machine and he managed to notch 13.5 sacks in a Packers 3-4 that didn't have another bonafide pass rusher even before it was decimated by injury. Yes, DeMarcus Ware and Cameron Wake put up better numbers....and both of them are sitting at home watching the playoffs. This Packers defense(as well as Aaron Rodgers' arm) is largely why Green Bay is a game away from the Super Bowl and it would not be the same without #52 reeking havoc on opposing offenses.

Offensive Player of the Year: Arian Foster, RB, Texans - As good as he looked in the preseason, nobody had Arian Foster leading the league in rushing and becoming the first undrafted rushing champ since Priest Holmes in 2002. Foster's 1,616 yards and 16 TDs took the world by storm, especially in a season where one of the big showdowns was supposed to be Chris Johnson vs. Adrian Peterson for the title of best RB. Foster threw himself in the mix by being the ground attack that was sorely missing in Houston's high-octane offense. Of course, Houston's horrid pass defense alongside Gary Kubiak's brainfart coaching kept us from seeing the Texans unleash said offense in the playoffs but Foster deserves his time in the spotlight for being the NFL's biggest surprise. He also deserves props for helping me win $600 in my keeper league and causing one of the best fantasy draft moments of my life when half the room exhaled "Who?" after I selected Foster in Round 8.

NFL MVP: Tom Brady, QB, Patriots - It pains me to hand this award to the well-coiffed one. Look, I hold nothing against Tom Terrific(even as a folically challenged individual). I just find playing merry-go-round with the same handful of people(LT, Peyton Manning, Brady) with this award gets pretty boring after a while. Still, there's no doubting this award belongs to Brady(3,900 yards, 36 passing TD, 4 INTs), even with Mike Vick making his best attempt to thwart Brady's chances. The man went from the middle of October to the second round of the playoffs without throwing an interception playing in an offense that didn't really have a running attack until "The Lawfirm" Benjarvus Green-Ellis came on during the second half. You may not like his hair, or his cliches, or his team, but there's no denying Tom Brady was the league's best this season.

Divisional Round Picks

Last week, we learned a couple things from Wild Card Weekend:

*If you suck the entire regular season but go into full-on "Bo Jackson in Tecmo Bowl" Mode in the playoffs, people will forget all about the last four months of dragging ass. Exhibit A: Lynch, Marshawn.

*Never doubt Pete Carroll in a big spot on Saturday night with paid players....something tells me he's been here before.

*Peyton Manning doesn't get nearly enough shit for being 9-10 for his career in the playoffs.

*Mark Sanchez is three years away from eventually losing his starting job to Nick Montana.

*An all-day tailgating affair of brats and cheddar cheese couldn't induce as many heart attacks as watching Mike McCarthy coach during a two-minute drill

*We have a good shot at seeing a 9-9 Seahawks team host a Packers team with 12 players on the IR in the NFC Championship.

*The Tampa Bay Bucs would beat every team left in the NFC

*If Charlie Weis never takes the Florida gig and instead commits to shoving Jamaal Charles down the Ravens' throats, Kansas City probably upsets Baltimore.......

*.........that last statement still doesn't scare me from the pick I'm about to make.

Last Week: 2-2

Playoffs: 2-2

Ravens (+3) at Steelers

Pick: Ravens - It really comes down to this....who do you trust more: Pittsburgh's offensive line or Joe Flacco? My answer is Flacco, almost by default. The Steelers have struggled to protect Ben Roethlisberger(who doesn't take enough criticism for his tendency to hold the ball too long) all season and I really don't like thier chances against a Baltimore front three that consists of 897-pound Terrance Cody, 625-pound Haloti Ngata, and 462-pound Kelly Gregg. I see Baltimore stuffing Rashard Mendenhall, smacking Big Ben in the mouth repeatedly and then a Aaron Smith-less Steelers D struggling to stop Ray Rice. The game will still be close because Flacco is due for a brain fart or two, but I'll take Baltimore by 6.

Packers (+1.5) at Falcons

Pick: Falcons - Reverse jinx obviously in play, but also, can you really trust McCarthy and a penalty-loving Packers team in the loud confines of the Georgia Dome? The Packers should have won this one in Atlanta a few weeks ago, but they found a way to lose and that's really the tough part about this Packers team. On paper, they should annihilate the Falcons, but if this thing is close(and I think it will be), my money has to go on the Dirty Birds. They can run the ball better and they make far less dumb mistakes in crunch time. Falcons by 3.

Jets (+9) at Patriots

Pick: Jets - I'd like to think this one will be closer than the beatdown New England gave New York the last time they met. For all the talk coming out of Gang Green, it better be. The Jets have been the squeaky wheel all season and this is where they need to put their money where their mouth is. This game is significantly more important than whatever happens next week if New York wins. It's a division rival. There's bad blood and you've talked a Super Bowl media week's worth of shit. I picked the Jets here simply because 9 points is a bit high for a Patriots team that susceptible to the run(something the Jets do well) and whose line may not be sturdy enough to keep Tom Brady from getting smacked in the mouth a couple times(something that always kills the Pats). I think Brady's pick-free streak ends here with a toss to Antonio Cromartie, but New England escapes thanks to Belichick outsmarting Rex Ryan in the closing seconds. Pats by 3.

Seahawks (+10) at Bears

Pick: Seahawks - I'm not on the Seahawks bandwagon at all, but 10 points is a lot to give a team with a shaky playoff QB facing a team that they've already lost to at home in the regular season. The 'Hawks may be a team of destiny or just really lucky, but I've never been high on this Chicago team and I have no reason to change my mind. Can rookie Russell Okung shut down Julius Peppers? That remains to be seen, but I see Jay Cutler gives the ball away a few times and Seattle keeping it close with the occasional big play here and there. Seahawks get the W here and the rest of the world shakes its head.

The Return of the Cut His Mic Off Award

"Crazy. Karma is a bitch. Gets you every time. It's not good to wish bad on anybody. God sees everything!" - a tweet from Miami Heat forward LeBron James, coincidentally sent after his former team, the Cleveland Cavaliers, got shellacked by the Lakers 112-57

"It's just how I was feeling at the time. It wasn't even a comment from me, it was someone who sent it to me and I sent it out. It wasn't even toward that team." - James, back-pedaling like Deion Sanders covering Carl Pickens in the Pro Bowl, when asked to elaborate on the tweet he may or may not have sent.

"He should own up to it. LeBron James is a pussy!" - my wife's reaction to LeBron's explanation. She's nothing if not quaint, ladies and gentlemen.

My English professor used to tell me to never put my name on something that I wasn't proud to turn in. Here's something they would have taught YOU in college, LeBron, had your dumb ass went to college: When you put your name on something, you become the owner of it. So even if something is "sent" to you, if you repeat it, it's as if you sent it.....ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU DON'T CLARIFY THAT IT CAME FROM SOMEONE ELSE! Look, I have no problem with what LeBron may or may not have said in that tweet. He deserves to throw his potshots at Cleveland and the way they performed against the Lakers the other night, especially after Cavs owner Dan Gilbert wasted little time throwing LBJ under the bus. However, as my wife is insinuating, own up to it, LeBron. Just say it was meant for the Cavs. Who the hell else would it be meant for? Your Dallas Cowboys? Charlie Sheen?

For a man who is so obsessed with his personal image and who spends tireless hours filming commercials asking the general public how he should be perceived, LeBron seems so reluctant to embrace the "villain" role that he's now been labeled with since "The Decision". Cleveland hates you, LeBron. Most of America thinks you're a douchebag. Quit trying the squeaky clean act with us. We're not stupid. You wanted to wear the black hat. WEAR IT! Is it immature to gloat over the poor performance of your former team? Yeah, a bit. It's even less mature to not own up to it. What do you think your punishment will be exactly for saying you were the originator of the tweet and you meant every word you said? Is Antawn Jamison going to uninvite you to his Labor Day BBQ later this year? Mo Williams going to stop sending you Farmville requests? Are they gonna cancel the "We Love LeBron" parade in Cleveland? You're the bad guy now, LeBron. Stop worrying about being liked. You think Kobe was trying to win popularity contests after he skated away on those rape charges and had every woman in America looking at him with scornful eyes? NO! He was too busy winning championships! The time has come to be your own man, LeBron. You're not Michael Jordan. You're not Kobe. You're LeBron Ramon James and, right now, you're one of the most disliked American athletes in the world of sports. The only way to change that is to do what you came to Miami to do: Win some rings. That's it. All the fuss over your tweet will dissolve. Win some rings and people will stop caring about the stupid shit you do(well, people outside of Cleveland, you're pretty much screwed there, my dude.).

So, it's up to you, LeBron. You can keep toeing the fence of good and evil and pretend as if you don't still hold some malice for the Cleveland organization and keep trying to feed us fans and people in the media your half-brained excuses or you can go about your business and be the dominant force that all your press clippings have told us you're going to be.

The choice is yours, but until then, your mic is cut off.

The Return of the Milk Carton All-Star of the Week

People have always used the start of the new year as an excuse to make changes, try different things, think differently, act differently, whatever. Even myself, a well-known lazy bum who procrastinates like no other, is using 2011 as the year I get myself back in shape, take one last chance at realizing my athletic potential before I say hello to 30(less than 2 years away), and dedicate myself fully to the very website you find yourself reading. In an effort to stay true to the latter, I've game-planned a regimen that will bring back some old things that went by the wayside(as you'll see in the coming hours) as well as trying out some new things(yeah, I haven't quite figured out that part fully yet....). The last couple of weeks have proven to me that this has become a one-man show, and with a new, more aggressive approach, expect to see a lot of my lewd, ignorant, "hater" ass for '11 and beyond.

Enough with the preamble. Back to basics.

Chances are, you've probably forgotten about the name "Nikoloz Tskitishvilli". I can't blame you. "Skita", as he was known during his glory days in the Republic of Georgia and how he'll be known from here on out because his last name is a bitch to spell correctly, was one of many members of the fateful 2002 NBA Draft class that were as big on hype and upside but low on production. Some of the other notable disappointments among Skita's class: DaJuan Wagner(New Jersey's all-time leading scorer, regarded as "The Next A.I."), Chris Wilcox(classic underclassman that came out way too soon......otherwise known as "The Omar Cook All-Stars), Jay Williams(last big thing at Duke, wrecked career in a motorcycle accident), Jared Jefferies(see Wilcox, Chris) and Juan Dixon(feel good story but was always an inch too short and a step too slow to make in the pros). Much like his '02 classmates, Skita wanted to strike while the iron was hot when it came time to declare and, man, was it hot for foreign players with even the slightest bit of basketball talent.

Desperate to find "The Next Dirk Nowitzki", teams spent the next few years dissecting grainy, surveillance camera-quality highlight reels and falling in love with the first big man with a jump shot they saw. Some of the guys taken in '02: Bostjan Nachbar(out of the NBA), Jiri Welsh(same), Nene Hilario(servicable big man), Yao Ming(All-Star before his feet failed him) and Nenad Krstic(decent 12th man on the right team). Yao being the obvious exception(although the fact that he's nearly calling it a career at 30 has to be a bit unsettling for Rockets fans and would be more disappointing for NBA fans if not for the name "Greg Oden"), none of these imports lived up to the hype. The biggest swing and a miss was Skita. After the Nuggets acquired Nene in a trade with the Knicks, Skita and Nene(which I'm almost 100 percent sure would be a reality show on VH1 if they were drafted a few years later) were billed as the first sign of a turnaround in the Rockies(mainly because nobody really knew that the team would steal Carmelo Anthony a year later). A couple of big men that went after Skita and Nene: 5-time All-Star forward Amare Stoudemire(9th) and my twin brother Carlos Boozer(who inexplicably dropped to Round 2). Caron Butler(10th) was also taken after the second coming of "Perfect Strangers", but his legacy has become being an overachiever who seems to always get traded.

While Nene has managed to stick around in the pros, the same can't be said for Skita. In 2 1/2 seasons with Denver, Skita averaged 1.4 points and 1.3 rebounds per game(or the equivalent of what Kevin Love gets within the first 30 seconds after tip-off). 1.4 points and 1.3 rebounds from a guy taken 5th overall? Yikes. After stinking up the thin Colorado air with his stench, Baby Balky was shipped to Golden State alongside fellow flameout Rodney White in exchange for the triple-decker turd sandwich that was Luis Flores(Who?), Eduardo Najera and a first round pick that turned out to be Petteri Koponen(yeah, I'm stumped, too.). Skita lasted about as long with the Warriors as a Nicolas Cage movie lasts in theaters. After appearing in just 12 games and averaging a pedestrian(to put it mildly) 1.3 points and 1 rebound a game, Skita signed with Minnesota in the offseason. By January, the T'Wolves sent Skita packing to Phoenix in exchange for a 2nd round pick. By the age of 22, the man heralded as "The Next Dirk" was out of the NBA, which made him "The Next Scoonie Penn".

Skita's impressive(sarcasm alert!) numbers in his four-year career of racking up frequent flier miles and rocking a terrorist beard during mop-up duty: 2.9 points and 1.8 rebounds per game. Meanwhile, Amare's putting on an MVP season in New York, while Carlos Boozer is regaining his momentum after missing the first few weeks due to injury in his debut season with the Bulls(this after two All-Star campaigns in Utah as well as being a part of the infamous "Would LeBron still be a Cav if Cleveland Kept Carlos Boozer?" question).

So, let's give an 11.3 minute applause(Skita's average minutes per game during his illustrious career) for the European Wang Zhi Zhi.......Nikoloz Tskitishvili, everybody!

Garden State of Mind

Haste makes waste.

It's a cliche I've been hearing since I was a small child and it's one that seems to apply to the Denver Nuggets' steadfast efforts in getting at least something of note for outgoing All-Star forward Carmelo Anthony. I don't fault the Nuggets in being aggressive in trying to move 'Melo before the trade deadline in February, but common sense tells you that, if a man makes it public he wants to play for the Knicks, he's probably going to drag his feet in agreeing to go anywhere other than New York.





Now, you'll find no bigger fan of the state of New Jersey than yours truly. I was born and raised there. My two favorite TV shows of the last decade have been "The Sopranos" and "Jersey Shore". "Garden State" is one of my favorite movies. However, even I know playing in Newark(where I spent the first decade of my life), even on a short term basis, is nowhere close to as appealing as playing in Madison Square Garden. There are reports that 'Melo's reluctance to sign the 3-year, $65 million extension that the Nets(and before them, the Nuggets) are offering is the latest road block to getting a deal done. Well, no shit, Sherlock! The man wants to play for the Knicks! The Nuggets will say publicly that the reason they won't strike a deal with New York is because the Knicks don't have the draft picks to offer that New Jersey does(which is bullshit because the Knicks could easily pilfer a first from some team wanting to add the services of young forward Anthony Randolph). The real reason Denver won't deal with New York, to me, is because they blame the Knicks(more specifically Amare Stoudemire and well-known cheerleader Spike Lee) for wooing 'Melo into wanting to leave Denver.









Maybe they're right. Or maybe Denver wants to paint New York as the villians as reasoning for not taking what seems to be the better deal. The current deal on the table from New Jersey has 'Melo and Chauncey Billups going to the Nets in exchange for a couple first round picks, All-Star point guard Devin Harris, promising rookie big man Derrick Favors, sharp shooter Anthony Morrow and a couple of guys who will be selling foot-long Chicken Carbonara subs at Quizno's within a couple months(the Nets would also get a semi-fossilized version of Richard Hamilton in exchange for the overpaid Twin Towers, Johan Petro and Troy Murphy). Now, Harris is solid point man with the ability to fill it up, but where does he fit on a roster that already has speedy playmaker Ty Lawson at the point? Are the Nuggets going to play both of them at the same time and try to overwhelm teams with their speed? As for Favors, he's still a couple years away. If he can't beat out Kris Humphries for playing time in New Jersey, where is he going to find minutes behind K-Mart, "The Birdman" and Nene?


The Knicks, however, will be serving up highly-touted forward Danilo Gallinari(who suffers from the classic Big Apple media overhype but is still further along than Favors is and fills a bigger need as a solid shooting small forward), Wilson Chandler(who is putting together a solid season and would really help the Nuggets with his ability to play multiple positions), rookie Landry Fields(like Gallo, another guy who is nowhere near as good as his New York press clippings, but still a decent two-guard) and perhaps a first rounder the Knicks would squeeze out in a deal for Randolph. That's not a better deal than the Harris/Favors poo-poo platter? For one, the Knicks are a 6 seed in the East(I know, hardly a huge accomplishment since the 7 and 8 seeds are both drastically under .500), while the Nets are barely afloat at 10-28. How can you expect 'Melo to be attracted to the idea of being shipped to a team that is 18 games under .500 and is two years away from moving to Brooklyn. Would a foursome of 'Melo-Rip-Billups-Brook Lopez turn things around and perhaps have the Nets sneaking in as a 7 or 8 seed(and in turn, getting annihilated by Miami or Boston in Round 1)? Maybe. Is it more alluring than being "The Next Big Thing" in the country's biggest sports market and teaming with Amare to become a poor man's Shaq and Kobe? Hell no!


So, look, Denver, let me save you, the hard-working fellows at ESPN who cover the ESPN, and the fans chomping at the bit for a deal to get done some time and aggravation. 'Melo's not going to New Jersey. He wants what every kid who grew up in the Tri-State area with the scant hope of playing in the NBA wants: to play in the Mecca of basketball, Madison Square Garden. You can try to sell him on the eventual move to Brooklyn. Jay-Z can try to hustle 'Melo with his silk tongue and allusions of grandeur, but even Jigga knows there's nothing like playing in the Garden. Do the right thing, Denver. Quit cutting off your nose to spite your face. Make the deal with the Knicks. Otherwise, you're just wasting everyone's time.

Wild Card Picks

The NFL regular season is over with and Gabe took home the Picks title for the second year in a row(pretty much by default, since I voided out by two best weeks). That means we get to move on to the meat of the season: The NFL Playoffs.



Here's our takes on this weekend's Wild Card games.(Editor's Note: Gabe's once again M.I.A., so I guess I'm riding solo on this one.)



Jets (+3) at Colts



Dave: Jets - Do you think fate looked down at that Titans-Colts game as Indy was setting up for winning field goal and thought "Oh shit, we're a Titans win away from seeing Jacksonville host a playoff game! Let's go Colts!"? I haven't been sold on Peyton Manning's boys all season. Manning's played like a one-man army from jump street and now they host the worst possible matchup for them. The Colts can't stop the run. The Jets are one of the best rushing teams in football. The Colts are thin at receiver. The Jets have All-Pro cornerback Darrelle Revis. I can't remember the last time Manning made a first round exit, but my money is on it happening this year. Jets pull off the mild upset and win 20-13.





Saints (-10) at Seahawks



Dave: Saints - A small part of me wanted to believe that Qwest Field will be loud and rowdy enough to at least mildly deter the Saints from coming into town and blowing the doors off.....but, even if Drew Brees and company start off slow, the Seahawks don't have enough offense to fend off the Saints for long. I think we are underestimating Seattle here a little, but not to the point where losing by two touchdowns at home is impossible. Saints by 17.





Packers (+2.5) at Eagles



Dave: Eagles - A matchup between two biggest brain fart specialists in the league? I can't wait! Green Bay beat Philly in Philly already this season but that was so long ago, it might as well be biblical. The key for the Packers to beat Philly will be finding a way to shut down or knock out Mike Vick by either putting his lights out or chewing up clock with the running game and keeping Vick and his fast paced offense off the field. I believe in the Packers' chances of doing the former but not the latter. The Eagles have given up the 2nd most passing touchdowns of any defense in the NFC, so this is going to be a shootout. Still, the Eagles can run the ball with Vick or "Shady" McCoy when it matters and the Packers are terrible on the ground. For reverse jinx purposes and my own profound pessimism, I'll take Philly here by 3.





Ravens (-3) at Chiefs



Dave: Ravens - Terrible matchup for Kansas City here. The Chiefs' offensive line struggled protecting Matt Cassell from getting beat up by Oakland last week and Baltimore's defense is much more physical. The only shot Kansas City has is if they get some dumb penalities from the Ravens and their playmakers in the secondary get a few big mistakes from Joe Flacco. Other than that, KC's Cinderella story ends here. Ravens by 13.

In This Corner.....

"To be the man, you gotta beat the man!" - Ric Flair

Tomorrow kicks off the NFL postseason, and this year's tournament has a little something for everybody. We've got a couple lovable underdogs(Kansas City, Seattle), some old school, blue collar smashmouth teams (Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Chicago), a few that like to air it out(Green Bay, New Orleans, Indianapolis, Atlanta, New England), a feel-good comeback story(Philadelphia) and even a reality TV star(New York).

Today, we're going to break down the teams to beat in their respective conferences, who has the best chance of knocking them off, and who are this year's dark horses, X-Factors and potential breakout stars. In the process, there will be plenty of pop culture boxing and wrestling references that will inevitably get me made fun of by Gabe.

Paper Champion(the conference favorite): New England Patriots - The Patriots have reverted back to handling business like they did in the pre-Randy Moss years, relying on chemistry and rhythm rather than loading up on the big play downfield. Go-routes have been traded in for quick slants, bubble screens and the occasional hand-off or two. New England managed to finally find an adequate running game via "The Lawfirm", BenJarvus Green-Ellis(1,008 yards rushing, 13 TDs). The effectiveness of Ellis on the ground has kept defenses from focusing on Tom Brady, which has led to Brady not turning the ball over in two months. Defensively, the Patriots' bend-but-don't-break defense is what makes this team more Piston Honda than Mr. Dream(or Mike Tyson, for those who didn't play the original Punch-Out). The team doesn't have a pass rusher with more than 5 sacks(OLB Tully Banta-Cain) and, outside of rookie CB Devin McCourtey's 7 picks, no other player has more than 3 interceptions. That's led to the Pats being near the bottom in pass defense(30th) and total yardage allowed(25th), and is the chief reason why this Patriots team may not steamroll through the playoffs like many are assuming.

The Contender(team with the best chance of knocking off the champ): Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens are the last team to intercept Brady, picking him off twice in their 23-20 OT loss to New England back on Oct. 17th. The Ravens also possess the ability to strike at New England's Achilles' heel, which is pounding the ball inside with the run game as well as be physical and aggressive enough on defense to smack Brady in the mouth. That was the formula Baltimore used to trounce the Patriots in Foxboro last year and this year's version of the Ravens now have a passing game to complement The Ray Rice Show. You could throw the Pittsburgh Steelers in the mix here, too, but only if DE Aaron Smith manages to come back from a torn triceps that kept him out most of the season(which the chances of that are slim) as well as if S Troy Polamalu can stay healthy(also no guarantee).

Little Mac Award:(team with an outside shot becoming champion): New York Jets - The Jets spent the offseason in "win now" mode, uniting every title-hungry veteran in the Meadowlands as if they were filming an NFL version of "The Expendables". Gang Green has been up and down all year, faced with its own inconsistency(the terrible second half play of QB Mark Sanchez and the disappearance of LaDainian Tomlinson down the stretch, for starters) as well as a myriad of distractions(Braylon Edwards' DUI, the filming of "Hard Knocks", the Brett Favre-Jenn Sterger fiasco, Michelle Ryan's foot fetish videos), and that has tempered some of the early season Super Bowl hype. That may work in the Jets' favor. 11-5 teams ranked in the top 5 in nearly every defensive category with a QB that's playoff seasoned and a run game that ranks among the top in the league can be a scary team to face(especially in the cold). The X-Factor for New York will be Tomlinson. Left for dead by the San Diego Chargers after years of coming oh-so-close to the Super Bowl, LT ran with a vengeance early in the season and then tapered off in the last couple of months(less than 60 yards rushing every game since mid-October). Time will tell whether it's because Rex Ryan was saving his aging lead back for the playoffs or it's a further sign of decline for the future Hall of Famer. Regardless, an L.T./Shonn Greene combination as well as Sanchez finally finding a game breaker in former Steeler WR Santonio Holmes(another guy with playoff seasoning) may give the Jets the type of balance that makes them a tough matchup these next few weeks(especially against their opening round opponent, Indianapolis, which is soft against the run). On defense, they haven't missed NT Kris Jenkins much, as the team finished the regular season third in run defense. OLBs Jason Taylor, Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas provided a fierce pass rush, with all three notching over 5 sacks a piece(Taylor leading the way with 6), although the secondary hasn't been able to take full advantage of the pressure the front seven has provided(a surprisingly low 12 team INTs).


Mickey Ward Award(player with the most to prove): Ravens QB Joe Flacco - This was supposed to be "The Year of Jersey Joe". With wide receivers Anquan Boldin, T.J. Houshmanzadeh, and Donte Stallworth added to an arsenal that already featured fellow wideout Derrick Mason and versatile RB Ray Rice, Flacco was supposed to step up into the elite ranks of signal callers. Flacco's numbers were respectable(62% completion percentage, nearly 3,700 yards passing, 25 TDs, 10 INTs) but the offensive line has failed him at times(40 sacks allowed). We all know no team can succeed in January without at least competent QB play(even though the Ravens last title came with Trent Dilfer leading them), so it goes without saying that the Ravens are screwed if Flacco isn't ready for primetime. Still, the case can be made that no QB in the AFC has as many high-profile weapons as Flacco does and, with a defense littered with stars whose championship window is closing quickly(MLB Ray Lewis, S Ed Reed), the Ravens' fate lies in the hands of their 6'6 238-pound gunslinger.


Hasim Rahman Award(guy most likely to go from nothing to something): Eric Berry, S, Chiefs - It's hard to say a rookie heralded as "the next Ed Reed" can possibly fly under the radar and become an overnight celebrity(especially after a 92-tackle, 2 sack, 1 forced fumble, 4-INT rookie campaign), but Berry has the skills to make his mark in these playoffs. Normally, breakout stars are found on the offensive side of the ball(as we saw with Pierre Garcon and Shonn Greene last year), but fantasy football has emerged to the point where any run-of-the-mill offensive playmaker can become a household name with a breakout game(which is why this spot wasn't given to Patriots TE's Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez). The Chiefs are a team with no real notable wins, which is why many have written them off as "one and done" once they host Baltimore on Sunday. However, since Baltimore's defense will stifle the Chiefs' underrated offense for most of the night in Arrowhead, Kansas City's best shot at an upset will be to match the Ravens' efforts defensively. Given how important safety play has become in the NFL, that means we're looking at a potentially big game for Berry.

Pacquaio-Mayweather Award(conference's most anticipated matchup): Colts at Patriots - As much as I hate the slurpfest that these New England-Indianapolis matchups end up becoming in the pregame hype leading up to kickoff, there's no denying that Brady vs. Manning is this generation's Marino vs. Montana(or Aikman vs. Young or Marino vs. Elway, whichever you choose).

The Brady-Manning showdowns almost always live up to the hype, with this year's regular season clash being no exception. The Colts attempted to come back from a double-digit deficit but a Peyton Manning interception on the potential game-winning drive gave New England the win. With New England and Indianapolis hardly possessing lights out defenses, a potential rematch between the two will no doubt be another shootout and, while matchups against the Jets, Steelers or Ravens would be entertaining, no team is better at playing the foil to the Patriots than Manning's Colts.

TV Champion(The conference favorite): Atlanta Falcons - They trot out the NFC's most balanced attack combined with being nearly untouchable at home. If The Carolinas are "Flair Country, the A-T-L is "Matty Ice Land". Matt Ryan, in his third year, is a long playoff run away from stepping into the next tier of franchise QBs. Helping him along the way will be bruising running back Michael "The Burner" Turner and Ryan's pass-catching tag team partner Roddy White. The Falcons' balance on offense is their calling card. Their suspect defense, however, is what makes them a shaky favorite. Despite being 5th in points allowed, the are 22nd against the pass, and 16th in total yards. That's a bit troubling in a conference that will see them face pass-heavy teams like Philly, Green Bay or New Orleans. Luckily, the Falcons get to play host in the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome, where the team has lost three times in head coach Mike Smith's three years and where Ryan has lost just twice as a starter. What goes against the Falcons, other than their leaky pass D, is their relative inexperience. Ryan made the playoffs a couple years ago as a rookie, but still doesn't have a playoff W. The Falcons also don't have a convincing win against a legit contender this season. Atlanta got some Charles Robinson-type poor officiating to help them beat Baltimore a couple months ago, and they edged out New Orleans by way of a shanked Garrett Hartley chip shot in OT as well as sneaking out a win against Green Bay thanks to a bad facemask penalty setting up the game-winning field goal. Of the top seeds in these playoffs, the Falcons look like the sketchiest, but that's why we play the games.


The Legend Killer(team with the best chance of knocking off the champ) : New Orleans Saints - As I said earlier, they came thisclose to sweeping Atlanta and they proved their mettle by going into the Georgia Dome two weeks ago and pulling out a W on national television. The Saints have the NFC's best coach(Sean Payton) and best QB(Drew Brees) and, perhaps the biggest factor, they've been here before. Brees is one of two QBs(Mike Vick being the other) with a playoff win to his name in the NFC and, even though rookie QBs have made big playoff runs in years past, experience goes a long way in the playoffs, especially during crunch time. Defensively, unlike their NFC South rival, the Saints are stout against the pass(but not so much against the run) and they have the easiest of the four Wild Card matchups by drawing a putrid Seahawks team that they crushed in Week 11(34-19 in New Orleans). What will hurt the Saints the most is their lack of a run game. RBs Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas are done for the postseason, meaning the weight now falls squarely on former poster child Reggie Bush to provide some production on the ground. Bush's biggest plays of his pro career have come in the postseason(his electrifying run against Chicago a few years ago and last year's dominance of the Cardinals). If Bush can be even somewhat close to USC Reggie Bush, the Saints are the team to beat in the NFC...hands down.

The Third Man(team with an outside shot of making a surprise run): Green Bay Packers - Call me a homer, but history tends to reflect positively on teams that rank in the top 10 on both sides of the ball. Green Bay possesses the 2nd best overall defense(statistically, at least) and the 10th best scoring offense. They are 5th in total yards allowed and pass defense, 9th in total yards, and 5th in passing. Obviously, what holds Green Bay back is both the lack of a run game and their occasional struggles with stopping the run. Since Ryan Grant went down in Week 1, the team has tried everything short of resuscitating Edgar Bennett to get something going on the ground. Brandon Jackson, the man who was initially drafted to be the Packers' lead back, finished with a little over 700 yards rushing and even his relatively decent games have been few and far between. The Packers' offense still lives and dies through Aaron Rodgers, who put up yet another stellar season(65.7% completion percentage, 3,922 yards passing, 28 TDs and 11 INTs) even despite falling victim to two concussions. The key is keeping Rodgers' upright. The Packers' offensive line, the team's biggest weakness at this point last year, cut down its sacks allowed from 51 last year to 38 this year but still aren't exactly a brick wall when it comes to defending a pass rush. If Rodgers gets time to throw, though, look out. Very few teams in the NFC(or even the NFL) can match offenses with the Packers, especially with the way the defense has played of late. Led by a reigning Defensive Player of the Year(CB Charles Woodson) and the frontrunner for this year's DPOY award(LB Clay Matthews), the Packers have put opposing offenses on lockdown. The road to Dallas will be rough, however. Although they beat Philadelphia at The Linc in Week 1, the win came when the Packers were much healthier than they are now and with Mike Vick on the bench for the first half. If they can somehow repeat their opening week performance, they will then have to go into Atlanta where they lost a close one to the Falcons a couple months ago. If they can survive that, they'll either travel to Chicago for a third showdown with the Bears(who they lost to at Soldier Field earlier in the season) or to NOLA to face the defending champs. The Packers eeked into the playoffs, despite a multitude of key injuries, but if they can stay away from dumb penalties and find a way to pull out wins in close games(two HUGE ifs), this team will be right where many had them in the preseason: The Super Bowl. (Side Note: For those who don't get the "Third Man" reference, take a look at this. P.S. When it comes to announcing, Tony Schiavone makes Jon Gruden look like Vin Scully.)

Most In Need To Get "Over"(Player with the most to prove): Michael Vick, QB, Eagles - As great as this storybook season has been for Mike Vick(62.8% completion, 3,018 yards passing, 676 yards rushing, 30 total TDs, 6 INTs) the best chapter has yet to be written. Vick needs a postseason that mirrors the first half of his regular season to end one of the greatest comebacks in this sport's history. Vick went from the league's most notorious heel to its biggest babyface after coming off the bench for the injured Kevin Kolb and finally realizing the potential that made him a #1 pick in 2001. Finally able to dominate with both his arm and his legs, Vick has morphed into the league's most electrifying player. Still, in the past couple of weeks, Vick's old form has reared its ugly head. For a guy who is often the fastest man on the field, he still takes far too many sacks and his scrambling ability makes him prone to big hits that his smallish frame can't continue to withstand. If the Eagles are going to be serious Super Bowl contenders, everything rides on Number Seven's ability to continue to extend plays with his feet while remaining accurate with his passes. The combination of Vick's versatility and the incendiary speed of playmakers like DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy make the Eagles like a more modern "Greatest Show On Turf", and with Vick's contract up at the year, a lot rides on him closing the show much like he started it.

From Jobber To Superstar(guy most likely to go from nothing to something): Mike Williams, WR, Seattle - Lost in all the glitz of the soon-to-be-a-Hollywood-blockbuster-with-Terrence-Howard-playing-the-lead-role comeback story of Mike Vick is the triumphant return of another Mike: former Lions first round bust Mike Williams. Sure, Williams didn't even have the best season of guys sharing the same name(Tampa's Mike Williams had a better year on a far better team that is far more deserving of a playoff spot than these Seahawks), but he's arguably the best player on the worst team in these playoffs and since we're hours away from forgetting anything sports-related the city of Seattle will have to offer between now and baseball season, we might as well give the Seahawks some face time. As good as the Saints are against the pass, it's tough to really account for a receiver built like BMW("Big" Mike Williams, for you slow-witted folk). Williams runs 6'5, 235 pounds, with hands like magnets and the speed of a minivan. He's pretty much a glorified tight end, but he's going to be Matt Hasselbeck's most reliable target and there's going to be at least a play or two tomorrow where you sit up and say "Oh shit! Who the hell is that!?". The Seahawks' only hope of pulling off a 123 Kid/Razor Ramon-type upset will be if Williams can move the chains and get the loudest crowd in the NFL motivated enough to at least somewhat intimidate the defending champs. I can see BMW reeling in five or six catches and a score as the Seahawks make things interesting on the first drive.....and then proceed to get annihilated for the next 3 1/2 quarters. At least now you can say you know who Mike Williams is before you bother use Wikipedia during the commercial break.


Steamboat vs Flair Award(most anticipated matchup) Eagles at Falcons - Eventhough the NFC plays the inferior ugly stepsister to the AFC, there are some good potential matchups on the horizon. Packers-Saints would be exciting, as would Saints-Eagles and maybe even Falcons-Bears. However, in continuing with the "Comeback Story of Mike Vick" theme, this postseason can really only shape up one way: With Mike Vick trying to lead the Eagles to the Super Bowl by going into the place that he once packed to the rafters and taking on his successor. Mike Vick vs. the team that threw him away IN Georgia. You can't script it better than that. The place will be filled with deafening mixed emotions, with some glad to see Mike Vick back while others unwilling to forgive him for why he left. On top of that, it pits two of the most exciting offenses in the league against each other, on the Georgia Dome carpet, for a chance at representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. As much as it goes against every fiber in my being to root against my Packers, the only way I can digest a Eagles win this weekend would be if it led to Vick inevitably stepping foot into the place he once called home, staring out into the crowd he once flipped off "Stone Cold" Steve Austin-style, and putting on a show similar to his Madden-like performance against the Redskins on Monday night.

Pay-Per-View Headliners(the five, er, six best potential Super Bowl matchups):



Honorable Mention: Seahawks-Jets - Barring some kind of Disney-scripted fairy tale postseason run, this has absolutely NO SHOT at happening. However, if Seattle can pull off a Cinderella run, we get Mark Sanchez against the college coach that chastised Sanchez's decision to declare early. We get a week's worth of Rex Ryan soundbites, a chance to see LaDainian Tomlinson in the Super Bowl, the first ever Super Bowl matchup featuring a team that finished the regular season with a losing record. There's also Seattle getting its revenge after the referees screwed them over in 2005(Sorry, Steeler fans!), as well as the biggest sports market in the country going ape shit for two straight weeks(and maybe even more if Carmelo Anthony goes to the Knicks or Nets somewhere in that timeframe). Sanchez gets to do his best Ben Roethlisberger impression and go from AFC Championship in his rookie year and Super Bowl in his second(and maybe even a sexual assault in his postgame), and Darrelle Revis gets to babysit Antonio Cromartie's 8 kids while trying to find something to keep him entertained during his defense of Mike Williams. How can you not root for this? Oh, because of the potential words "Super Bowl winning QB Charlie Whitehurst", huh?

5. Jets-Falcons: Obviously, all the Jets' reasons from the last paragraph are in play here as well. The media circus behind this Jets team would be phenomonal, and you know we'll get at least two or three good Rex Ryan quotes during the interviews leading up to the big game. LaDainian Tomlinson gets to return home to Texas, much like Jerome Bettis did in Detroit in '05, and possibly end his career with a ring(though I don't think this is the end for LT). A couple storybook endings for Jason Taylor and Tony Gonzalez, two of the best people the sports world has seen in this generation. You get a battle between two up-and-coming QBs in Mark Sanchez and Matt Ryan, and the potential for Ryan to build on his "Matty Ice" legacy with a 4th quarter drive. There's Jets team officials trying to both keep Braylon Edwards off the bottle and Antonio Cromartie from knocking up any Dallas cheerleaders. A "student vs. teacher" plotline with Michael Turner against L.T, the inevitable deflection of questions about the Jets' sexual harrassment lawsuit as well as Michelle Ryan questions, Telemundo getting excited about possibly the first Latin Super Bowl-winning QB, "Rowdy" Roddy White vs. Revis Island, and of course, Rex Ryan soundbites(Yup, so good, it had to be mentioned twice!).

4. Steelers-Eagles: Only for the sole purpose that, when this one is over, the man hoisting the Lombardi Trophy will either be a man twice accused of sexual assault who will be winning his third ring in seven years or a man who spent nearly two years in prison for bankrolling a dogfighting ring. Maybe it's not "exciting" from a football standpoint, although both offenses are good enough to keep it from being a snoozefest, but from a storyline standpoint alone, it's a matchup that will make Roger Goodell sweat and reporters salivate on Media Day.

3. Ravens-Falcons: It's the age-old showdown of a great defense against a great offense. It's a matchup between the two marquee QBs of the 2008 NFL Draft, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. It's the potential last hurrah for two sure-fire Hall of Famers(Ray Lewis and Tony Gonzalez) and another possible Canton resident(Ed Reed), and maybe even a last goodbye for Derrick Mason. It's a rematch of perhaps the only entertaining Thursday night game all season and a game that ended with some very suspect officiating at the end. It's a chance for John Harbaugh to steal a little of the spotlight from his San Fran-bound brother, and it's a chance for two cities(one that had its team stolen from them in the middle of the night, the other a team that lost the biggest star the team has ever had to dogfighting) to finally stand on top of the world.

2. Packers-Patriots: A rematch of the two's hotly-contested battle a few weeks ago, this time with Aaron Rodgers(hopefully) filling in for Matt Flynn(it's also a rematch of the '96 Super Bowl, the last one the Packers won, but that may be too dated to matter that much). It's a showdown between two of the league's best QBs and a shot to finally step out of the shadow of Brett Favre for Rodgers. It's arguably the league's smartest coach and most meticulous gameplanner against argaubly one of the game's dumbest coaches and worst crunchtime coaches. It will be a nice cherry on top of a battered sundae for the Packers or yet another notch on the belt of the great Tom Brady.

1. Saints-Patriots: Brees! Brady! That should pretty much say it all. Incase it doesn't, how about this: Reggie Bush doing his best Desmond Howard impression, reporters trying to get a halfway decent quote from Bill Belichick and Sean Payton, endless jokes about Brady's hair, Brees replacing Peyton Manning as Brady's biggest competition for immortality, Brees also getting a shot to play "Legend Killer" for another great QB in back-to-back years, another reason for a huge New Orleans party, Mark Wahlberg vs. Harry Connick Jr., one more week of yelling "Lawfirm!" at BenJarvus Green-Ellis, one more week of yelling "Ray J's Sloppy Seconds!" at Reggie Bush......oh, and it's Brady vs. Brees....and it really doesn't get much better than that.

The Pick: Patriots over Saints - I had Ravens over Packers in the preseason and, as much as I would like to stick to my guns here, both of those teams commit way too many dumb penalties and have too many glaring weaknesses to be relied upon. I do think the Ravens have the best shot at beating New England, but it's hard to bet against this Pats team right now. As for New Orleans, the only team with a legitmate shot at beating them in the NFC is Philly and there's a puncher's chance that the Eagles don't make it out of the first round. I have no faith in Atlanta....not enough convincing wins against tough opponents, not enough experience in the playoffs and, certianly, not enough defense. As good as Matt Ryan has been, he's not winning a shootout with Drew Brees in the playoffs. I like New England over New Orleans because the Patriots can run the ball better and Brady is less likely to make big mistakes than Brees is. As much as I'd like to see the Jets and my Packers here, I think we're looking at another parade in Beantown and another spring of annoying Pats bandwagon fans going nuts. Sorry, America.