Dumb Honest Question of the Week

One would think that picking in the Top 10 of the NFL Draft should make you more likely to improve on the upcoming season because, in theory, you have more of a selection of the best talent than the team picking, say, 26th. However, that hasn't been the case for quite some time now. The Detroit Lions have picked in the Top 10 for seven of the last ten years and they couldn't sniff the playoffs with Erin Andrews' nose. Cleveland has made the playoffs once, despite picking in the Top 10 eight times since their return to the NFL in 1999(they didn't have a 1st round pick in 2008, and they traded out of the top 5 in 2009 when they passed up on Mark Sanchez to move down and take center Alex Mack).

That leads us to this week's Dumb Honest Question.....

....Is it worth it to pick in the Top 10 of the NFL Draft anymore?

Critics will point to the exuberant rookie contracts handed out to Top 10 picks hamstringing salary cap strapped teams. Certainly, that theory has some merit, but the high failure rate of these high picks is more the cause than their hefty salaries. Is JaMarcus Russell's contract such a backbreaker if he's a 2-time Pro Bowl QB leading the Raiders to back-to-back AFC West titles instead of a Purple Drank-slurping, fat lard who can't even score a job in the UFL? Bad management is the root cause for teams routinely picking high every year. Case and point, Matt Millen, who crippled the Lions with bad pick after bad pick year in and year out. Do we think differently of Detroit if Millen hits on Charles Rogers and Joey Harrington? Probably, but he didn't so we don't. Regardless, teams are striking out at a rate that would make Mark Reynolds squeamish. In the last year's draft, only two teams picking in the Top 10 made the playoffs(Kansas City and Seattle, and the Seahawks made it with a 7-9 record). The year before, the same result: 2(although you can make the case for 3, since the Jets technically picked in the Top 5 after trading up to take Sanchez. The Bengals and Packers are the others).

Conversely, teams that routinely pick near the end of the Draft have done well for themselves. A lot of that can be attributed to front office savvy and their success in hitting on later round picks but it's still dumbfounding that teams picking at the bottom are outdoing their higher-picking counterparts. After all, this isn't fantasy football. We aren't running a snake draft here where teams picking at the end in Round 1 go on to pick early in Round 2. To take this case deeper, here's a look at all 12 playoff teams, their top 5 players and where they were picked:

AFC

1. New England Patriots

a. Tom Brady(6th round, 2000)
b. Wes Welker(undrafted free agent, acquired from Miami for a 2nd round pick)
c. Vince Wilfork(21st overall pick, 2004)
d. Logan Mankins(32nd overall pick, 2005)
e. Devin McCourtey(27th overall pick, 2010)

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

a. Ben Roethlisberger(11th overall pick, 2004)
b. Troy Polamalu(16th overall pick, 2003)
c. James Harrison(undrafted)
d. Casey Hampton(19th overall pick, 2001)
e. Hines Ward(3rd round, 1998)

3. Indianapolis Colts

a. Peyton Manning(1st overall, 1998)
b. Dwight Freeney (11th overall, 2002)
c. Reggie Wayne (30th overall, 2001)
d. Dallas Clark (24th overall, 2003)
e. Bob Sanders (2nd round, 2004)

4. Kansas City Chiefs

a. Jamaal Charles(3rd round, 2008)
b. Dwayne Bowe (23rd overall, 2007)
c. Matt Cassel (7th round pick by New England in 2005, acquired for a 2nd round pick)
d. Eric Berry(5th overall pick, 2010)
e. Brandon Flowers(2nd round pick, 2008)

5. Baltimore Ravens

a. Ray Lewis(26th overall, 1996)
b. Ed Reed (24th overall, 2002)
c. Haloti Ngata(12th overall, 2006)
d. Terrell Suggs(10th overall, 2003)
e. Ray Rice (2nd round, 2008)

(Editor's Note: There are few things I am more certain of than my friend Carlos reading the Ravens rankings and taking issue with the order. I'd bet money on it.)

6. New York Jets

a. Darrelle Revis(14th overall, 2007)
b. Santonio Holmes(25th overall by Pittsburgh in 2006, acquired for a 5th round pick)
c. David Harris(2nd round, 2007)
d. Mark Sanchez(5th overall, 2009)
e. Nick Mangold(29th overall, 2006)

NFC

1. Atlanta Falcons

a. Matt Ryan(3rd overall, 2008)
b. Roddy White(27th overall, 2005)
c. Michael Turner(5th round pick, 2004 by SD, signed by ATL in 2008)
d. John Abraham(13th overall pick by NYJ, 2000)
e. Tony Gonzalez(13th overall pick by KC in 1997, acquired for 2nd round pick)

2. Chicago Bears

a. Brian Urlacher(9th overall, 2000)
b. Julius Peppers(2nd overall pick, 2002, by Carolina, signed as a free agent in 2010)
c. Jay Cutler(11th overall, 2006, by Denver, acquired for multiple picks in 2009)
d. Matt Forte(2nd round, 2008)
e. Lance Briggs(3rd round, 2003)

3. Philadelphia Eagles

a. DeSean Jackson(2nd round, 2008)
b. Michael Vick(1st overall, 2001, signed as free agent in 2009)
c. Trent Cole(5th round, 2005)
d. Asante Samuel(4th round, 2003 by NE, signed as a free agent in 2008)
e. Jeremy Maclin(19th overall, 2009)

4. Seattle Seahawks

a. Matt Hasselbeck(6th round, 1998, by GB, acquired for a swap of first round picks in 2001)
b. Lofa Tatupu(2nd round, 2005)
c. Earl Thomas(14th overall, 2010)
d. Mike Williams(10th overall, 2005 by Detroit, signed by Seattle in 2010)
e. Marshawn Lynch(12th overall, 2007, by Buffalo, acquired for 4th round pick)

5. New Orleans Saints

a. Drew Brees(2nd round pick, 2001, signed as free agent in 2006)
b. Marques Colston(7th round, 2006)
c. Jonathan Vilma(12th overall, 2004, by NYJ, acquired for a conditional draft pick)
d. Darren Sharper(2nd round pick, 1997, by GB, signed as free agent in 2009)
e. Lance Moore(undrafted)

6. Green Bay Packers

a. Aaron Rodgers(24th overall, 2005)
b. Clay Matthews(26th overall, 2009)
c. Greg Jennings (2nd round pick, 2006)
d. Charles Woodson(4th overall pick, by Oakland, in 1998, signed as free agent in 2006)
e. Tramon Williams(undrafted)

12 teams. 60 players. 10 of them picked in the Top 10. Four of the 10 became bigger stars on a team that didn't draft them(though I wouldn't classify Mike Williams as a "star", per se.). What gives? Obviously, luck is a factor in all of these picks. Some guys just need the right system and the right coaching to succeed. Clay Matthews didn't play a snap in high school, hardly saw action in college and dropped in the draft amidst steroid allegations. He lands with Green Bay, hooks up with Kevin Greene and Dom Capers and is now, to me, the best pass rusher in the sport. Still, this list should serve as a cautionary tale to the teams picking in the Top 10 come April. Yes, a Matt Ryan or a Sam Bradford can turn around your franchise, but the chances of that happening seem to be bleaker and bleaker as years pass. This year, there's no guy you would classify as a can't-miss, making the odds that more than 20% of the teams picking 1-10 making the playoffs next season all the more difficult. Can a Nick Fairley rejuvenate the Panthers? Could Patrick Patterson get Denver over the hump? Is Cam Newton the missing piece in Washington? Only time will tell. However, if this year's playoffs are any indication, GMs sitting at the top of the Draft may want to work those phones early in hopes of waiting a little longer for their rookie cornerstone.