It's time to touch all bases on what could be the last football game for quite some time:
Over/Unders(Note: I made most of these up)
Number of times Joe Buck and Troy Aikman reference Brett Favre: 4.....bet the over. There's a lot to talk about with these two teams. Both QBs coming full circle, the magnificent play of these two defenses, the Packers bouncing back from 15 players on the IR, Matthews vs. Polamalu, etc. Still, all the talk leading up to this game has been about a guy who won't even be on the field: Brett Favre. Since commentators can't go a Packers game without mentioning Favre, you can expect Aikman and Buck to go the Favre well early and often. Every Rodgers shovel pass will be "Favre-esque". Every lull in action will be filled with the story of how Rodgers became starter and Favre became persona non grata. Every flash back will feature moments from Super Bowls XXXI and XXXII(the two Favre Super Bowls). The only story that has a chance to be talked about more than Favre is Big Ben's tawdry sexual assualt allegations.
Roughing the Passer penalties for Steelers LB James Harrison: 2.....push. I'd like to think that Harrison's impact won't be nearly as big as its been in week's passed because he'll be up against Pro Bowl LT Chad Clifton. That's not to say Harrison won't try to knock A-Rod's head off to give Pittsburgh a better advantage by forcing Green Bay to trot out Matt Flynn. Rodgers does a better job of getting the ball out on time than he did last year, but this offensive line of Green Bay's is still hardly a brick wall. The reason I go push here is because I don't Harrison will be as big a factor as his bookend teammate LaMarr Woodley(who will be up against rookie RT Bryan Bulaga). Still, Harrison has a reputation to keep up and, with refs and league execs not wanting the thrill of this game sapped out by dirty play, expect the whistles to be blown at full force.
300 Yards Passing For Aaron Rodgers.....under: The Packers are going to spread it out and exploit the weaknesses of this Steelers secondary, but Pittsburgh isn't dumb enough to give Rodgers anything deep. I expect there to be a lot of quick slants and screens to start out as McCarthy brainlessly gets conservative early on to avoid turning the ball over. Rodgers is obviously the key to Green Bay's success but he proved last week that he doesn't have to ball out for the Packers to win. With Green Bay wanting to protect Rodgers from this Steelers pass rush, I think we'll see quite a bit of James Starks with Rodgers pulling out a deep bomb or two. Final numbers for A-Rod: 22-30, 2 TD, 1 pick, 268 yards.
300 Yards Passing for Ben Roethlisberger....under: The Packers' secondary is far better than the one Big Ben roasted for 500 yards in their 2009 showdown. On top of that, Ben's offensive line is much worse and Green Bay's pass rush is far more aggressive in Year 2 under Dom Capers. Plus, Pittsburgh would be smart to unleash Rashard Mendenhall on the ground against an average Packer run defense. Roethlisberger can buy time with his quick feet and huge body, so a few bombs to Mike Wallace will happen. Still, the Packers don't want a repeat of last year and I think they'll be a bit more diligent against the pass this time around. Final numbers for Big Ben: 19-27, 257 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.
2 sacks for Clay Matthews.....Over: I'm looking at 3 sacks here for "The Ultimate Warrior". There's a part of me that thinks he takes losing the Defensive MVP award to Troy Polamalu as a slight and goes on an absolute tear on this terrible Steelers offensive line. If Ben gets free from the initial pass rush, nobody will be better at running down the big fella than #52. Anyone who watched clips of Matthews putting Winston Justice on his ass in the Wild Card game against Philly should expect more of the same in this one. The only thing standing in Clay's way will be a few obligatory trips and holds from Flozell Adams. Needless to say, I like Clay a lot tonight.
4 total turnovers for both teams.....push: I predicted a INT a piece for both QBs, and that may be a bit generous if this game becomes a shootout like it's projected to be. It remains to be seen whether the big stage scares the inexperienced Packers here. They haven't had fumbling issues so far, but if there's a butterfingers candidate, it's WR James Jones. With Donald Driver iffy, Jones is going to see a lot of work opposite Greg Jennings. Jones cost the Packers a win against Chicago early in the regular season with a couple costly fumbles. He also got the hands of stone in the Wild Card game against the Eagles. I don't want to jinx my own team here but if anyone seems primed for the goat horns, it may very well be James Jones(although Mike McCarthy is a good choice as well). With two ballhawking defenses like this, there's going to be a lot of strip attempts and corners jumping routes. 2 turnovers a piece isn't impossible, so that's what I'm riding with.
100 yards rushing for Rashard Mendenhall....over: Mendenhall is the kind of back the Packers don't want to see: a powerful inside runner with speed who can break tackles on a whim. The Packers run D hasn't been as stout as it should be and, even with the Steelers' offensive line missing a crucial piece in C Maurkice Pouncey, I like Mendenhall's chances of having a big day if Mike Tomlin doesn't get tempted to go pass-for-pass with Green Bay. The Packers front three is much better than the Jets, so Mendenhall will have to be a bit more elusive than he was two weeks ago. Regardless, the Steelers need Mendenhall to keep Green Bay's D honest and, if there's an Achilles heel for these Packers, it's stopping the run. Final numbers for Mendy: 18 carries, 109 yards, 1 TD.
100 yards receiving for Greg Jennings.....under: The Packers are going to spread the ball around. Jennings clearly has the speed advantage over Ike Taylor but Rodgers ability to find him deep will depend on the time A-Rod has to throw. Rodgers is going to want to get that ball out fast because Woodley and Harrison will be coming in quick. If there's an 100-yard WR at all in this game, I'd put money on it being Mike Wallace, simply because he's the Steelers best big play guy.
The X-Factors
Pittsburgh: TE Heath Miller - The Packers' secondary is going to have its hands full with Hines Ward and Mike Wallace, and with Ben feeling the constant motor of Clay Matthews breathing down his neck, he's going to need a safety valve. That safety valve will be Miller, who came up with quite a few clutch catches against Baltimore in the divisional round. Green Bay's LBs are going to have to be strong in coverage to keep Miller from busting loose and it's a lot for a defense to account when dealing with two solid WRs and a soft-handed, big-bodied tight end while trying to take down a massive QB who is best when throwing on the move. Miller needs to be Ben's guy to keep the chains moving and wear out this injury depleted Packers defense.
Green Bay: DE Cullen Jenkins - NT B.J. Raji got quite a bit of the press as the extroverted star of this Packers' defensive line but, arguably, Green Bay's 2nd best pass rusher is Jenkins. Jenkins will be playing with a heavy heart after spending most of the week dealing with his missing father(who was inevitably found). While Raji certainly has a good chance of dominating the line of scrimmage with Pouncey on the sidelines, the Steelers would be wise to keep an eye on Jenkins too. Jenkins had 7 sacks in the regular season and, at 6'2, 305 lbs, he's a lot for an undermanned offensive line to handle. With the protection focused on Matthews(and even Raji), I see Jenkins exploiting a one-on-one occasionally and making his presence felt.
Super Bowl Unsung Heros
Pittsburgh: C Doug Legursky - All Legursky has to do is fill in for an All-Pro center who helped anchor one of the best rushing attacks in football and play admirably against one of the best 3-4 defensive lines in the NFL on the biggest stage of his career. Sounds simple enough, right? Again, the Steelers need to establish the run to keep Green Bay guessing and Legursky is going to have his hands full with a beast like Raji who is as quick as he is strong. If Legursky flunks in keeping Raji or any of the other Packers defenders at bay, the Steelers are probably toast. A QB, even one of Roethlisberger's size, can't expect to produce with an inside rush constantly in his face. The Steelers' offensive line has gotten lucky enough given all the patchwork it has utilized all season. Legursky has to be its next big miracle.
Green Bay: LB Erik Walden - While this game has been billed as a showdown between two great young QBs, their success depends on how they handle two great defenses. Walden has emerged as of late in filling in for Frank Zombo(who was filling in for Brad Jones). He's an athletic pass rusher who, like Jenkins, will benefit from attention being paid to the bigger names on this defense. Walden's strong play against Chicago in Week 17 helped get the Packers in the playoffs and a big game here would punctuate a rollercoaster season for this Packers defense. Now, prior to the NFC Championship, Sam Shields would get the call here but his 2-INT day against Chicago has made him less of a secret. The same goes for RB James Starks, who is the postseason's leading rusher but will probably have a tougher time adding to those numbers against a stonewall Steelers run defense. A big game by Starks, though, could make things interesting next season in Green Bay's backfield with Ryan Grant coming back from ankle surgery and Brandon Jackson a free agent.
Finally.....the only paragraph that matters......
Packers (-2.5) vs. Steelers
Pick: Steelers - Look, the reverse jinx has gotten us this far, right? The Packers are the better team but they are also the least experienced. Pessimistic Packers fans like myself have been waiting for Mike McCarthy to crop dust the field with brain farts this entire postseason. Does it happen here? That remains to be seen. Still, the worst thing that could happen to these Packers was the showering of hype they've received over the last two weeks combined with Vegas making them nearly a field goal favorites against a team that won a Super Bowl two years ago and is coming into this game as the 2 seed in a stronger conference. Roethlisberger vs. Rodgers will be one for the ages but the physicality of this Steelers defense worries me some, as does the tendency in these playoffs for the refs to slurp the Steel Curtain. Player safety will be paramount here so expect a few chintzy roughing calls. The same can be said for pass interference. Given the aggressiveness of both defenses, their inability to avoid dumb penalities, and the frequency of passing from both offenses, we could see a lot of non-Terrible Towel related yellow laundry on the field. Game plan will be key. Pittsburgh has a better chance of having success mixing it up on offense given Green Bay's weakness against the run. Green Bay, however, has the better QB and there is nobody in the building who wants to bury the memory of Brett Favre more than Aaron Rodgers. Experience didn't help Indianapolis last year against the "underdog" Saints but lightning doesn't strike the same place twice. I expect a MVP-calibur day from Mendenhall as both QBs trade strikes. Inevitably, McCarthy blows this one down the stretch and the Steelers win by a field goal.
Final: Pittsburgh 24, Green Bay 21.......Dave Leonardis obscenities: 167.
MVP: Ben Roethlisberger - QBs always have the edge in the MVP voting and Big Ben has missed out on two MVPs in his previous two Super Bowls. I like Mendenhall as the dark horse here but something tells me Tomlin will ratchet up the passing game to try to blow for blow with Green Bay(as opposed to running it down the Packers' throats, wearing down the D and keeping A-Rod off the field). That may be at Tomlin's demise but, from a storyline standpoint, I can see Big Ben going from pariah to Super Bowl MVP. Obviously, as a Packers fan waiting 12 years for another Super Bowl and as someone who wants to see Aaron Rodgers get that monkey off his back, I'm hoping I'm dead wrong with these last two paragraphs......but you never know. That's why we play the games.
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