It's fitting that the 2011 basketball season starts on December 25th because it looked like we needed a Christmas miracle for the NBA to return before fall of 2012. Regardless, here we are. The NBA season kicks off in less than two hours. I'll skip the preamble and get to my picks for this upcoming 66-game season.
PLAYOFF TEAMS
WEST
1. Dallas Mavericks - For teams to make it far this season, they are going to need good depth to survive those brutal back-to-backs. The defending champs have that in spades. What they don't have, thanks to some offseason shuffling, is a defensive presence. The Mavs brought in some big names in guys like Lamar Odom and Vince Carter at the expense of heralded defenders such as Tyson Chandler and Caron Butler. They swapped out Puerto Rican jitterbug J.J. Barea for gun-toting, teammate mother-banging Delonte West. That, in essence, is why I like the Mavs to dominate the regular season but, spoiler alert, not repeat. Who's going to make a stop for this Mavs team when they need it? Dirk? Brendan Haywood? Vinsanity? For Rick Carlisle's boys to repeat, they need to find a presence on defense, find roles that will keep the tragically-moody Carter and Odom happy and hope that finally winning a title doesn't make guys like Dirk and Jason Kidd complacent. That's a lot to ask in a short span of time.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder - The Thunder are another team that's not only deep but young. In fact, their "B team"(Cole Aldrich, Nick Collison, Thabo Sefalosha, James Harden, Eric Maynor) is probably better than some teams' starting five. OKC should have made their first Finals trip last year, off talent alone, but got tripped up by the one thing that concerns me about them this year: the Kevin Durant-Russell Westbrook alpha dog dynamic. The NBA, throughout its history, is littered with potentially great teams that were crippled by the inability to figure out who's Batman and who's Robin. It's why I thought the Thunder should have traded Westbrook to the Hornets for Chris Paul, who's a star but would be comfortable deferring to Kid Dynamite. If Scott Brooks can get the pecking order between Durant and Westbrook figured out, nobody's beating Oklahoma City. They have a sick defensive frontcourt with Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka that complements the best young scorer the NBA has seen since Allen Iverson in Kevin Durant. Depth, youth, and balance......the Thunder are one wrinkle to iron out away from locking down the West for years.
3. Los Angeles Clippers - It's hard not to jump on the Clippers bandwagon when you look at the roster and think of how the next few months will be swamped with NBA Jam-like highlights from Lob City. However, if there is a nit to pick here, it's that the three of the team's biggest stars are coming off recent major injuries. Blake Griffin survived year two with a remarkable clean bill of health and his rookie season might have just been a slight bump in the road, but it should be noted that Blake Griffin did miss all of his rookie season due to injury. It should be noted that Chris Paul's knees are a ticking time bomb, as are Caron Butler's. It's easy to look at all the moving and shaking and get excited but we must remember: These are still the Clippers. If any franchise has been synonymous with being plagued by bad luck, it's these guys. On top of that, they are still missing a couple parts. For one, beyond DeAndre Jordan, this team doesn't have another interior presence on defense unless Blake Griffin evolves into a young Kevin Garnett this season. They also don't have a true 2-guard after dealing Eric Gordon in the Paul trade. Chauncey Billups is a nice piece, but he's undersized at the 2, as is Mo Williams. All of these points might be moot because, at the end of the day, who's keeping up with a team this young and talented but if the wheels come off the bandwagon quickly, don't say I didn't warn you.
4. Memphis Grizzlies - The Darrell Arthur injury is a big hit to this Grizzlies team because he was a promising big who could spell Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph and contribute on both sides of the ball. The team tried to soften the blow by trading for Quincy Pondexter, but he doesn't have Arthur's size and length. Still, the Grizzlies should build on their surprising playoff run from last year. The big key is getting Rudy Gay back as well as resisting the urge to trade O.J. Mayo yet again. Gay and Mayo are the best young tag team you're not talking about and that tandem combined with the Gasol/Z-Bo tandem makes Memphis very formidable(especially if Mike Conley Jr. continues to develop). The Grizz have a solid bench as well, headlined by underrated defensive stopper Tony Allen. The question is who will lead them now that Shane Battier is gone? Battier was the glue that kept a young and, at times, immature team together. Now he's in Miami. Will this team unravel or will they realize that they have a chance to go farther than any previous team has gone in the franchise's history? Time will tell.
5. Portland Trailblazers - It's a testament to how good this Portland team is put together that they can manage to still be viewed as a playoff team despite some bad luck in recent drafts that has forced them to watch Brandon Roy bow out early and probably Greg Oden not too long after. Filling in for the now-retired Roy and the always-injured Oden is the combination of Wesley Matthews and former-Hawks gunner Jamal Crawford at the two and a shot blocker who is not stranger to injuries himself in Marcus Camby. Because they are already down two, the Blazers can't afford anymore bites from the injury bug. The team made a huge upgrade a point guard by switching Andre Miller out for Ray Felton. Felton is one of the quickest guards in the league and is in a contract year so he'll be extra motivated. LaMarcus Aldridge will build on his resume from last year's Most Improved to perhaps the best young power forward in the West and Portland will get some help from savvy vets like Kurt Thomas and Gerald Wallace. On paper, this Blazers team can make a run but injuries have been their undoing for years. If they stay healthy, they can make some noise in a wide-open Western Conference.
6. San Antonio Spurs - Honestly, this is more of a respect call. The Spurs are on life support, in my opinion. Tim Duncan's on his last legs. I'm not sold on DeJuan Blair or Tiago Splitter as their depth up front(Blair because he's undersized and his knees are on borrowed time and Splitter because he's a bit green). Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Richard Jefferson are a nice trio but Manu and RJ are getting old and Parker's focus is an issue coming off nearly being traded AND a very public divorce. The other guys on this Spurs team? I shrug at them. James Anderson? Matt Bonner? T.J. Ford? Umm...ok. At the end of the day, they are led by the best coach in the NBA and the best power forward of our era. That should be enough to carry them to the playoffs. Past the first round though against younger, quicker teams? Doubtful.
7. Los Angeles Lakers: Surprised? Don't be. The Lakers did everything they could over the last few months to submarine any chance of keeping this dynasty going. First, I hate the Mike Brown hiring. That job belonged to Brian Shaw and you spent years grooming him as the heir apparent to Phil Jackson and then you led him down the primrose path and cut his head off by hiring Brown. Brown's the Brian Billick of the NBA: a subpar coach whose success comes more from being attached to greatness than any greatness he possesses.....kinda like U-God with the Wu-Tang Clan. Second, you went all-in on a Chris Paul trade that wasn't MANDATORY and then completely lost your composure when the NBA screwed you over. The Lakers needed an upgrade at point guard but they didn't need a team overhaul. Signing a Kyle Lowry or even J.J. Barea would have sufficed. Then, you kill your frontcourt depth by trading Lamar Odom for peanuts. Now, you HAVE to rely on Andrew Bynum to stay healthy, which he's proven he can't do. Third, Kobe's hurt and coming into a season moody, divorced and having to do more than he's ever had to to keep this team competitive. Please explain to me how that ends well. Beyond Bynum and Gasol, L.A. doesn't have much. Josh McRoberts? Jason Kapono? Metta World Peace? Yikes. On top of that, the Clippers will be showing you up IN YOUR OWN BUILDING...every single night. On the bright side, Lakers fans, Kobe will sulk his way into forcing Mitch Kupchak to fire Mike Brown by Valentine's Day and trade the house for Dwight Howard....and we all know how well Kobe acted the last time the Lakers had a big-time center come to L.A. from Orlando, right?
8. Denver Nuggets - Truth be told, the Nuggets would be a nice sleeper pick to come out of the West if three of their best players weren't trapped in China. With Kenyon Martin, J.R. Smith and Wilson Chandler all stuck in the Far East, who is doing the crunchtime scoring for this team? Hell, who's doing the scoring at all for this team? Ty Lawson? Aaron Afflalo, maybe? Lawson and Afflalo are nice pieces and I love the addition of Kenny Faried(Newark, NJ in the house!) but this team has a lot of talent not on the roster. Rudy Fernandez and Corey Brewer were nice additions, but they are role players. Unless Danilo Gallinari becomes Dirk Nowitzki this season, the Nuggets are in for a world of hurt. Plus, even when the China Three are available, they're free agents, making them no guarantee to come back to Denver. Still, Lawson's a good young point guard and they have some beef up front with Timmy Mosgov and Nene(and Faried will prove to be one of the game's best bangers from jump street) but this team is missing an alpha dog. Until they find him, this is a team of spare parts that's just good enough to fend off the rest of the pack.
EAST
1. Chicago Bulls - I loved, loved, LOVED the Richard Hamilton signing. If he doesn't show his age, he's a good pickup for a team that was dying for a 2-guard. I would have liked them to sign someone younger and more athletic that can run with D-Rose like Jason Richardson or even deal for O.J. Mayo but Hamilton is still a good move as a proven playoff scorer and gifted shooter. The Bulls have the team to make it to the Finals. There are just a few questions. Will Derrick Rose stay motivated after signing his big extension? We've seen many a young point guard lose their way after getting that big money(Looking at you, Rajon Rondo!). Can Carlos Boozer stay healthy? If so, the Bulls have the best front court in basketball with him and Joakim Noah and the duo of Omar Asik and Taj Gibson off the bench. Tom Thibodeau will have this team at the top of the league's best defensive units again and the presence of Rip will take pressure off Rose, who was held in check by LeBron and the Heat in the Conference Finals once LBJ D'ed up on him. There isn't much standing in Chicago's way, but I'm not ready to hand the East over to them yet.
2. Miami Heat - Quick question: If Miami offered Chris Bosh to New Orleans for Chris Paul, would that have been that horrible of a move for either team? Bosh thrives on lousy teams and CP3 would have been the perfect third wheel for the Wade-LeBron Heat combo. I guess we'll never know. The Heat shocked some people by coming together when it mattered and making a run to the Finals before running out of gas against the Mavericks. Now, they are back with just a few small changes. The rotting corpse of Big Z is gone and has since been replaced by the obese frame of Eddy Curry, who somehow made the Heat roster despite being the size of Rick Ross. Eddie House is gone and, in his place, the team brought in Shane Battier. Battier isn't great in any one area and he might be a couple years over the hill but he's a proven leader, a solid defender and someone who won't slack off at any point in the season. Another guy getting some buzz is point guard Norris Cole, a rookie point guard out of Cleveland State who might take Mario Chalmers' starting gig. The Heat are still everything they were last year: a collection of young stars and old big names. They have enough depth to survive the short season and Wade-LBJ-Bosh is still a daunting task for any team on any given night. Can they finish what they started last season or did they shoot their load too early trying to prove themselves last year?
3. Boston Celtics - As with San Antonio, this was a respect call. The Celtics are old, frail and not very deep. In a better conference, they may be lucky to sniff the playoffs. So, why do I have them as a three seed? Because Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo is a hell of a foursome in a weak East and I expect the Celtics to make a couple midseason additions to keep their scant hopes at a title going. The Mikael Pietrus signing was a nice move for a team needing young legs in the backcourt but, beyond the Big Four, there isn't much. Jermaine O'Neal was washed up five years ago. Same for Chris Wilcox and those are two main bigs for Boston outside of Brandon Bass. Marquis Daniels, Keyon Dooling and JaJuan Johnson are nothing to get excited over either. Still, they have a solid core and I trust Doc Rivers to be smart enough to conserve his aging vets until the games actually matter. It's going to be hard to watch for Celtics fans but the team has too much talent in the starting five to be dead in the water.
4. New York Knicks - Welcome back to relevance, Knicks fans. The Knicks made a couple interesting moves this offseason. For one, they overpaid for Tyson Chandler but he's the type of lanky, shotblocking interior presence the team hasn't had since the Marcus Camby days. They are hoping to get something out of Baron Davis to run Mike D'Antoni's offense but I have my doubts over a guy who has had trouble staying in shape his entire career suddenly being able to look like John Basedow after missing the first two months recovering from back surgery. In the meantime, the Knicks will try to stay afloat with what's left of Mike Bibby and Toney Douglas. Depth is also a concern as the team doesn't have much thanks to trading half the roster to Denver for Carmelo Anthony. Still, they did get Carmelo and the combination of him and Amare Stoudemire with Chandler protecting the rim is good enough to make the Knicks a contender. If Davis can come back motivated and in shape, then they pulled off the sneakiest signing in years....but that's a huge if. For now, the Knicks are a well-balanced team on both sides of the ball that's a key injury away from being an 8 seed.
5. Indiana Pacers - If Indiana got O.J. Mayo, as they've tried to do on two seperate occassions, this Pacers team could be a legit three seed and possible dark horse in the East. Still, the team did make a nice move in getting David West from New Orleans, even if D-West is coming off a blown out knee. West will be spelled by the high-energy duo of Tyler Hansbrough(who I like a lot this year) and Louis Amundson(acquired from Golden State a week ago) and will has a beast of a center inside in Roy Hibbert to take pressure off him in the paint. If the Pacers can keep West rested until playoff time, he's going to be a problem for opposing teams because he's a stout rebounder who can score in the paint and with a good outside jumper. Another good move was acquiring George Hill from San Antonio. He and Darren Collison make a nice tandem at point guard with Hill occassionally moving to the two when the team goes small. Oh, and did I mention the team has the most underrated player in the game in Danny Granger? Granger and second-year man Paul George give this team two versatile youngsters on the wing who can fill up the entire stat sheet. The Pacers could be the East's version of the Thunder this year. They have good depth and balance and, if they get anything close to what David West has given the Hornets over the years, they are going to be a tough out in the playoffs.
6. Orlando Magic - Obviously, this spot is contigent on either a. Dwight Howard staying all season(highly unlikely) or b. the team getting something of value for Doomsday to keep them competitive this season(also unlikely). Looking at this roster, it amazes me that D-12 wants out. This is a better assemblence of talent than LeBron ever had in Cleveland and those Cavs teams won 50 games annually. The Magic would be a nice dark horse this year because they are deep and have talent in every facet of the game. They can block shots with the game's premier defender in Howard. They have good rebounders in guys like Big Baby Davis and Ryan Anderson. Hedo Turkoglu and Jason Richardson are nice complementary pieces. Jameer Nelson is one of the game's best point guards, when healthy and J.J. Redick is a 6th Man of the Year candidate if he regains his shooting touch from his Duke days. Still, the team, much like Denver was last year with Melo, is going to be crippled by 24-7 questions about Howard's future until they eventually deal their prized big man. That's why it would have made more sense for Orlando to deal Howard before the season and avoid the distraction. Now, until they find a deal or get Howard's name on an extension, their hopes of contending are pretty much doomed.
7. Atlanta Hawks - This may be wishful thinking on my part because I feel this is the year it all comes apart at the seams for the Hawks. For one, swapping Jamal Crawford for what's left of Tracy McGrady was a downgrade for Atlanta. T-Mac hasn't mattered in half a decade. I also get the sinking feeling the team will start off slow and find a way to trade Josh Smith. Too many farfetched factors have to happen for the Hawks to even be decent this year. Atlanta's main guys off the bench this year are McGrady, Jerry Stackhouse and Vlad Radmanovic? Umm....this isn't 2002. Marvin Williams will continue on his career as "the guy the Hawks took ahead of Deron Williams and Chris Paul", otherwise known as "Sam Bowie 2.0". Al Horford took a step back last year and J-Smith is still a work in progress on the offensive end. The team thinks point guard Jeff Teague has some promise and, he did show signs in the playoffs, but he's not a star. It could all end bad for Atlanta. Right now, they benefit from playing in a weak conference where the teams below them are all rebuilding but a slow start will be this team's death knell.
8. Philadelphia 76ers - Another sneaky young team that could screw around and be higher than projected. A couple reasons I'm optimistic about Philly's chances: They have a nice young nucleus with Iggy, Thad Young, Jrue Holiday and Marreese Speights. Elton Brand is still a monster inside and Lou Williams is a nice piece off the bench(Unrelated note: Given the collection of talent this team has, and I realize this goes against everything I just wrote about why I'm optimistic about Philly, wouldn't this be the perfect team for the Lakers to trade Andrew Bynum to? You're telling me Bynum for Iggy, Lou Williams and Tony Battie doesn't work for both teams? Maybe even swap out Williams for Evan Turner? Just sayin'.). My reasons for pessimism: Either Evan Turner isn't the goods or he's being buried by Doug Collins. Evan Turner was supposed to be the nice consolation prize in last year's draft after John Wall. I know it's early, but shouldn't he be at least the 2nd best guy on this team right now? Speaking of Collins, I just have no faith in that guy as a coach. None. He's failed pretty much everywhere else because his guys tune him out after awhile. Why wouldn't that happen here with a team filled with young guys? If Turner turns out to be everything he was at Ohio St and they continue to get solid contributions from Young and Iguodala and Holiday, the Sixers could be tough but they are a bit too green and poorly coached to make a dent in a top-heavy East.
MVP: Dwayne Wade, G, Heat - The three front runners according to all the prognostication sites is LeBron, Kevin Durant and Chris Paul. All worthy choices and I would have went with KD if I didn't get burned last year by picking him. My question is: Why not D-Wade? He's proven that, when it matters most, he's the guy for Miami and not LeBron. After all, Miami is WADE COUNTY. The only thing holding Flash back is his inability to stay healthy. You can't see a motivated D-Wade coming off a Finals defeat that still burns inside him coming into this season in impeccable shape and going to into complete Takeover Mode for 66 games? Is 30-6-6 an unrealistic stat line for Flash? I don't think so. CP3 gets the buzz because the Clips will be the most exciting team in basketball. LeBron is proven but he's also severely disliked and Durant has to make the decision to tell Russell Westbrook "This is my team!" before I can pick him to be MVP again. My money's on Wade this season.
Defensive Player of the Year: Serge Ibaka, F/C, Thunder - When picking DPOY, you pretty much have too options: Dwight Howard or anybody else. The reasons behind Howard winning it the last three years is as much about reputation as it is numbers. Serge Ibaka is every bit as intimidating a defensive presence as D-12. He just doesn't have the resume or the promotion. After awhile, people get tired of voting for the same guy, so I think this one is a toss-up between Ibaka and Memphis' Tony Allen.
Rookie of the Year: Derrick Williams, F, Timberwolves - His teammate Ricky Rubio will be the most exciting but Derrick Williams, to me, was the best player in a so-so draft. He can score inside or out. He's a decent defender and he can play multiple positions. It's just a matter of him finding playing time on a crowded Minnesota team. This one is pretty much between Williams and Kyrie Irving, with The Jimmer as a dark horse.
Coach of the Year: Rick Carlisle, Mavericks - Because the man has been a great coach with three teams now and doesn't get nearly the props that Popp or Doc Rivers gets.
Sixth Man of the Year: Lamar Odom, F, Mavericks - L.O. can play pretty much anywhere because he's athletic, a good defender and has suprisingly good handle for a big man, so he'll find key minutes for Dallas. Plus, after being traded from L.A. and dying to make his first All-Star team, he's going to be extra motivated to put up big numbers.
Western Conference Finals: Grizzlies over Thunder in 6 - Before your jaws drop, take a long look at this Western Conference and tell me who you like with serious conviction. It's as wide open as its been in years. The days of the Lakers, Jazz, and Spurs running things is over. The Mavs can still repeat but history and their new roster aren't on their side. The Grizzlies have a lot of talent and last year's run will pay off dividends in terms of experience going into this season. Find me a better starting five than, if healthy, Marc Gasol-Zach Randolph-Rudy Gay-OJ Mayo-Mike Conley Jr. You can't. As for the bench, the Thunder have the slight edge but I'm not riding with Oklahoma City until I see proof that they've figured out the power share with KD and Westbrook. Plus, Quincy Pondexter, Xavier Henry, Sam Young, Tony Allen and Dante Cunningham is still a pretty decent bench.
Eastern Conference Finals: Heat over Bulls in 7 - Because Miami has answers to anything Chicago can throw at them. Derrick Rose? Still has to figure out how to get by LeBron. The presence of Rip Hamilton? Nullified by Dwayne Wade. Boozer and Noah up front? Ok, maybe Miami doesn't have an answer for that. Miami is the only team that can match Chicago skill for skill and two stars are better than one and a half, so I'll ride with Miami this year.
NBA Finals: Heat over Grizzlies in 6 - This is going to be a far more entertaining Finals than last year and, with the short season, LeBron will only have to go hard for 66 games and the playoffs rather than 82 and the playoffs. Same for D-Wade. If Erik Spolstera is smart enough to not use up all the gas in his stars' tanks, the Heat will overwhelm a very game Grizzlies team because they are athletic enough to run with them and have enough big bodies to throw at Gasol and Z-Bo. I think this is Miami's year. The trio has come together and little pieces like Shane Battier and whomever they manage to bring in midseason(be it, Antawn Jamison or Nate Robinson or another big) will allow the team to not rely so heavily on The Big Three.
Sunday, December 25, 2011
Saturday, December 24, 2011
Week 16 Picks cont....
We both came up empty after Dan Orlovsky improved his career-best winning streak to two by leading the Colts to an upset over soon to be one-and-done Houston on Thursday night.
Here's our take on the rest of the Christmas weekend festivities in the NFL.....
Here's our take on the rest of the Christmas weekend festivities in the NFL.....
(Dave's Note: Gabe emailed me his picks, which is awesome in terms of getting the picks posted quickly but unfortunate in the fact that he's unable to respond to my numerous quips....including the video posted in the Jets-Giants write-up.)
Raiders (+2.5) at Chiefs
Dave: Chiefs - Last Sunday was a miserable, miserable, miserable day in the Leonardis house, albeit one I saw coming months ago. I should have known that the karma gods would strike down upon myself and my Packers and have Green Bay's undefeated streak come to a crashing halt against my wife's Chiefs. Hell, Sporting News' NFL preview predicted it as such back in August(they had GB going 15-1...the one loss? You guessed it. At KC). My newly-raised concern for my boys heading into January is something I'll cover later. As for this week, I'd like to think if Kyle Orton is starting for KC a few weeks ago when Matt Cassel went down and Todd Haley is fired a few weeks prior, that the Chiefs would still be in the division hunt. Orton's a competent QB and, for some reason, the team never responded to Haley's methods. The Raiders, meanwhile, completely screwed themselves out of the playoffs by going all-in on Carson Palmer and now have the daunting task of playing the Chiefs at Arrowhead. Have fun with that, Raider Nation. Chiefs by 9.
Gabe: Chiefs
Broncos (-2.5) at Bills
Dave: Broncos - One word: Teeeeeeeeeeeeeeebbbbbbbbbboooooooooooow!!!!
Gabe: Bills
Jaguars (+7.5) at Titans
Dave: Titans - Tennessee comes into this one pissed off, having not only lost to then-winless Indy last Sunday but also now having to avoid a losing streak by beating a Jags team that beat them back in Week 1. I'm not ready to give up on Blaine Gabbert like many have already. When the Jags lock down Justin Blackmon or Alshon Jeffrey and give Gabbert a weapon, we'll see how he does. For now, he has to try to fend off a sneaky-good Titans defense and hope that his own D can halt Matt Hasselbeck(trying to save his job for next season, while also trying to keep Tennessee's scant playoff hopes alive) and Chris Johnson(finally shaking off the rigamortis built up the first three months of the season). I think the Titans D clamps down on MoJo D, forces Gabbert to make a few mistakes and they walk away with a 10-point W.
Gabe: Titans
Cardinals (+4.5) at Bengals
Dave: Cardinals - I'm down a few games here to Gabe, so I think I'll go a little bold this week. The Cards may actually be better than most, including myself, have given them credit for this season and John Skelton has emerged as the antithesis to the "Tim Tebow is a franchise QB because he knows how to win" argument that morons like Skip Bayless have been spewing for months(and, hell, I like Tebow....but I'm not willing to put him in Canton like some are). I think Skelton takes advantage of a battered Bengals secondary and slightly edges out Andy Dalton in a shootout. Cards with the upset by 3.
Gabe: Bengals
Dolphins (+9.5) at Patriots
Dave: Patriots - The last time these two teams met, Tom Brady put up 517 yards on the Phins and embarrassed Miami in front of a national audience on Monday Night Football. The Dolphins are a better team than the bunch that strolled into Gillette three months ago. Reggie Bush has finally turned himself into a legit starting RB. Matt Moore has resurrected his career from a virtual nobody to seat-filler for Landry Jones and Miami's secondary is better than people think. With all that said, I think Brady romps here again and locks down the top seed in the AFC with another brilliant performance. Pats by 13.
Gabe: Dolphins
Browns (+12) at Ravens
Dave: Ravens - It took some time but I finally figured Joe Flacco out....he's a pre-2007 Eli Manning. Remember before the 2007 playoffs when everyone, including Eli's biggest fan Gabe Rodriguez, were wanting to throw Eli out of the Big Apple because he was maddeningly inconsistent, showed no emotion when he would throw back-breaking picks and looked like an outright bust(especially while draftmate Ben Roethlisberger was winning rings in Pittsburgh)? That's Flacco right now. He practically copied "The Manning Face"(now equipped with the handlebar mustache John Travolta used in "Taking of Pelham 123") Sunday night in his dismal performance against the Chargers. Further adding to his inconsistent resume, Flacco will storm the field at M&T and torch the Browns, leading to a slew of "Where was this Joe Flacco a week ago?" arguments and "If Flacco plays like this, can anyone beat Baltimore come playoff time?" debates. Ravens by 16.
Gabe: Ravens
Giants (+3) vs. Jets (Technically, it's a home game for the Jets but they both share the same building!)
Dave: Jets - Even as a Packers fan, I'd rather see this game be the primetime special on Christmas Day over Green Bay-Chicago. For one, there's more at stake. Both teams' seasons are on the brink. It's a battle between two sneaky Super Bowl contenders that play in the same city....which just so happens to be the biggest sports market in the country. It's a rivalry that dates back for decades and includes moments like Jason Sehorn snapping his leg in half against Gang Green in a meaningless preseason game(and then spending his recovery time kissing up to Angie Harmon, who used to be a fox but now looks more like Mark Gastineau than Brittney Gastineau). It's Giants fans going crazy backing their boys after Big Blue receivers spent the week downplaying Darrelle Revis. It's Giants fans then looking stupid when Revis Island claims another victim and picks off two Eli Manning passes. It's Ryan vs. Coughlin. It's smashmouth football. Most importantly, it's Gabe Rodriguez in a tattered Rodney Hampton jersey with a gold Jesus piece on and a Mets hat tilted to the right while THIS is playing on a constant loop throughout the Rodriguez residence. It's me getting excited and using 140 words on a game I'll miss because I'll be at work. It's the Jets winning by 6 and ending New York's playoff hopes and forcing us to listen to "Will the Giants fire Tom Coughlin?" questions for the next two weeks. It's me not trying to be bitter over Mark Sanchez dating Kate Upton. It's......ok, you get the point.
Raiders (+2.5) at Chiefs
Dave: Chiefs - Last Sunday was a miserable, miserable, miserable day in the Leonardis house, albeit one I saw coming months ago. I should have known that the karma gods would strike down upon myself and my Packers and have Green Bay's undefeated streak come to a crashing halt against my wife's Chiefs. Hell, Sporting News' NFL preview predicted it as such back in August(they had GB going 15-1...the one loss? You guessed it. At KC). My newly-raised concern for my boys heading into January is something I'll cover later. As for this week, I'd like to think if Kyle Orton is starting for KC a few weeks ago when Matt Cassel went down and Todd Haley is fired a few weeks prior, that the Chiefs would still be in the division hunt. Orton's a competent QB and, for some reason, the team never responded to Haley's methods. The Raiders, meanwhile, completely screwed themselves out of the playoffs by going all-in on Carson Palmer and now have the daunting task of playing the Chiefs at Arrowhead. Have fun with that, Raider Nation. Chiefs by 9.
Gabe: Chiefs
Broncos (-2.5) at Bills
Dave: Broncos - One word: Teeeeeeeeeeeeeeebbbbbbbbbboooooooooooow!!!!
Gabe: Bills
Jaguars (+7.5) at Titans
Dave: Titans - Tennessee comes into this one pissed off, having not only lost to then-winless Indy last Sunday but also now having to avoid a losing streak by beating a Jags team that beat them back in Week 1. I'm not ready to give up on Blaine Gabbert like many have already. When the Jags lock down Justin Blackmon or Alshon Jeffrey and give Gabbert a weapon, we'll see how he does. For now, he has to try to fend off a sneaky-good Titans defense and hope that his own D can halt Matt Hasselbeck(trying to save his job for next season, while also trying to keep Tennessee's scant playoff hopes alive) and Chris Johnson(finally shaking off the rigamortis built up the first three months of the season). I think the Titans D clamps down on MoJo D, forces Gabbert to make a few mistakes and they walk away with a 10-point W.
Gabe: Titans
Cardinals (+4.5) at Bengals
Dave: Cardinals - I'm down a few games here to Gabe, so I think I'll go a little bold this week. The Cards may actually be better than most, including myself, have given them credit for this season and John Skelton has emerged as the antithesis to the "Tim Tebow is a franchise QB because he knows how to win" argument that morons like Skip Bayless have been spewing for months(and, hell, I like Tebow....but I'm not willing to put him in Canton like some are). I think Skelton takes advantage of a battered Bengals secondary and slightly edges out Andy Dalton in a shootout. Cards with the upset by 3.
Gabe: Bengals
Dolphins (+9.5) at Patriots
Dave: Patriots - The last time these two teams met, Tom Brady put up 517 yards on the Phins and embarrassed Miami in front of a national audience on Monday Night Football. The Dolphins are a better team than the bunch that strolled into Gillette three months ago. Reggie Bush has finally turned himself into a legit starting RB. Matt Moore has resurrected his career from a virtual nobody to seat-filler for Landry Jones and Miami's secondary is better than people think. With all that said, I think Brady romps here again and locks down the top seed in the AFC with another brilliant performance. Pats by 13.
Gabe: Dolphins
Browns (+12) at Ravens
Dave: Ravens - It took some time but I finally figured Joe Flacco out....he's a pre-2007 Eli Manning. Remember before the 2007 playoffs when everyone, including Eli's biggest fan Gabe Rodriguez, were wanting to throw Eli out of the Big Apple because he was maddeningly inconsistent, showed no emotion when he would throw back-breaking picks and looked like an outright bust(especially while draftmate Ben Roethlisberger was winning rings in Pittsburgh)? That's Flacco right now. He practically copied "The Manning Face"(now equipped with the handlebar mustache John Travolta used in "Taking of Pelham 123") Sunday night in his dismal performance against the Chargers. Further adding to his inconsistent resume, Flacco will storm the field at M&T and torch the Browns, leading to a slew of "Where was this Joe Flacco a week ago?" arguments and "If Flacco plays like this, can anyone beat Baltimore come playoff time?" debates. Ravens by 16.
Gabe: Ravens
Giants (+3) vs. Jets (Technically, it's a home game for the Jets but they both share the same building!)
Dave: Jets - Even as a Packers fan, I'd rather see this game be the primetime special on Christmas Day over Green Bay-Chicago. For one, there's more at stake. Both teams' seasons are on the brink. It's a battle between two sneaky Super Bowl contenders that play in the same city....which just so happens to be the biggest sports market in the country. It's a rivalry that dates back for decades and includes moments like Jason Sehorn snapping his leg in half against Gang Green in a meaningless preseason game(and then spending his recovery time kissing up to Angie Harmon, who used to be a fox but now looks more like Mark Gastineau than Brittney Gastineau). It's Giants fans going crazy backing their boys after Big Blue receivers spent the week downplaying Darrelle Revis. It's Giants fans then looking stupid when Revis Island claims another victim and picks off two Eli Manning passes. It's Ryan vs. Coughlin. It's smashmouth football. Most importantly, it's Gabe Rodriguez in a tattered Rodney Hampton jersey with a gold Jesus piece on and a Mets hat tilted to the right while THIS is playing on a constant loop throughout the Rodriguez residence. It's me getting excited and using 140 words on a game I'll miss because I'll be at work. It's the Jets winning by 6 and ending New York's playoff hopes and forcing us to listen to "Will the Giants fire Tom Coughlin?" questions for the next two weeks. It's me not trying to be bitter over Mark Sanchez dating Kate Upton. It's......ok, you get the point.
Gabe: Giants
Vikings (+7) at Redskins
Dave: Redskins - Is it bad that I used nearly two paragraphs on Giants-Jets but don't want to use more than two sentences on this steaming pile of shit matchup? I'll take the soon-to-be RG3-led Redskins over the Christian Ponder-led Vikes by 9.
Gabe: Redskins
Bucs (+7.5) at Panthers
Dave: Panthers - With the Colts making sort of a comeback, the Rams tragically battered and the Vikes woefully incompetent, can the case be made that Tampa Bay is the worst team in the NFL? I think so. Look at all the potential this team had coming into the season. You could at least point to those previous teams and say "Well, if such-and-such didn't get hurt..." or "Had they done this earlier..." as a possible reason for their standings atop the Draft in April. What's Tampa's excuse? Josh Freeman has played pretty much all year(and played poorly, mind you). They got a full season out of their young receivers. LaGarrette Blount missed a couple games but he's been mostly healthy. You can't use the "their rookies didn't have time to get adjusted to the defense" argument when guys like Von Miller are looking like the second coming of Jevon Kearse. The Bucs just flat-out dropped the ball. The Panthers, meanwhile? They are going to be scary good in a couple years. Cam-Cam has only sniffed his potential as a dual threat and, once Ron Rivera builds that defense up, they are going to give teams fits. Panthers by 10.
Gabe: Panthers
Rams (+13) at Steelers
Dave: Steelers - Because the Steelers should have made this QB switch two weeks ago when Big Ben's ankle bent in half instead of allowing Big Ben to bully them these last two games. Because the Rams aren't going to be able to do dick against this Pittsburgh defense. Because I think Batch will get the ball out early and we'll see a few more big plays than we have in recent weeks, especially from Mike Wallace. Because I can smell the Rams sneaking up on the Colts for the #1 pick and then we spend the first four months of 2012 speculating on whether they trade Sam Bradford or Andrew Luck. Because I needed a reason to write a paragraph starting every sentence with because. Because the Rams' pass rush will probably exploit this terrible Steeler offensive line and I'll look like an idiot. Because I'm an idiot, I'm still saying Steelers with the shutout and win by 17.
Gabe: Steelers
Chargers (+2) at Lions
Dave: Lions - Oh, beleaguered Chargers fan base, your Bolts have conned you into having hope with another late stretch run again. Look, your team is better than its record but it has been held back for a long time thanks to poor coaching and even poorer management. You should have had three rings by now either from the Brees-LT-McCardell nucleus or the Rivers-LT-Sproles-Gates-Jackson nucleus. You blew it. You cursed yourselves when A.J. Smith foolishly canned Marty and now you're paying for it and the end of the Norv Turner era starts today. Phillip Rivers isn't going to be able to play pitch-and-catch with the Lions like he did with the Ravens. Not with a pissed off Ndomukong Suh in his face, he won't. I like the Lions big here with a few Stafford-to-Megatron bombs. Lions by 17.
Gabe: Chargers
Niners (+1) at Seahawks
Dave: Niners - If not for that L against Arizona, the Niners would have every reason to just rest their starters and sit back on that 2 seed. Instead, they have to work a little harder for that first round bye and go into a tough place to play in Qwest Field and pull off a W on four days rest. Because of that, I think this game will be closer than one might expect. The Seahawks are pretty good against the run and Seattle's offense has shown some signs of life this season, especially when Marshawn Lynch is in Beast Mode. I think Seattle makes San Fran earn it here but Alex Smith and company walk out with a 6-point win.
Gabe: Niners
Eagles (+1.5) at Cowboys
Dave: Eagles - When Gabe's Giants lose to the Jets, I, then, will have to figure which team of the two teams I hate the most in the NFL(Dallas and Philly) to root against in the playoffs. I wish there was a way where no team from the NFC East could get a playoff spot and that spot could, instead, go to a team like LSU or Alabama....just for shits and giggles. I like Philly here because they roasted the Cowboys a month ago, and that was when Dallas actually had DeMarco Murray. Now, they are without Murray AND Felix Jones(surprise, surprise! Good job taking "The Cat" over CJ2K a few years ago, Jerry Jones!) and face Philly when they actually have a glimmer of hope of making the playoffs. Mike Vick is going to tear up this porous Dallas secondary. We'll get at least 35 shots of Rob Ryan looking like Sean Connery in "The Rock", screaming and yelling on the sidelines. Tony Romo will find a way to find his favorite target, Asante Sameul, at least once and Jerry Jones' plastic face will contort in a new way to express his disappointment in the unlovable losers that HE built. Ugh. Eagles by 14.
Gabe: Cowboys
Bears (+11) at Packers
Dave: Bears - I'm taking NO chances here. Last week, facing a team starting its 3rd string QB that had just fired its coach, Green Bay found a way to come up short against Kansas City. Now, they get Chicago and third string Josh McCown, who hasn't played since 2009. Do I think Green Bay will lose? No. But keep in mind that Chicago always plays Green Bay tough, that the Packers' offensive line is beat up and that this Packers defense made Kyle Orton look like Joe Montana a month after making him look like Giovanni Carmazzi when Orton was in Denver. It's amazing how a five-point loss to Kansas City can make you change your mind from "We're gonna repeat" to "I don't know if we'll win a playoff game this year". That's how concerned I am over by boys. The NFC is surprisingly deep this year. Detroit would probably be a 2 seed in the AFC, and they are the 6 seed in the NFC. There isn't a team I feel comfortable facing come next month, and that includes shaky Dallas or Philly. The Greg Jennings injury was manageable because we had depth and he'll be back when it matters. But Derrek Sherrod breaking his leg, Bryan Bulaga hurting his knee and Chad Clifton showing his age officially has me at an all-time high on the "Aw, fuck!" scale. Packers will anger-bang the Bears here but it won't be a blowout because this defense hasn't put a team away in weeks. I'll say Green Bay by 9.
Gabe: Packers
Falcons (+6.5) at Saints
Dave: Falcons - A rare good game on MNF. It's a Christmas miracle! Soon the blind shall see and the limp shall walk! The last Falcons-Saints clash came down to the wire(in fact, the last four games between these two have been decided by three points), and that's before Atlanta got hot like they are now. Either way, both of these teams are going to end up in the playoffs but Atlanta could do their division rivals a disservice by helping to cost them a first round bye by snagging a W here. A couple of interesting things to also look forward to Monday night: Drew Brees needs 305 yards to pass Dan Marino for the single-season passing yards record and Matt Ryan needs 303 to notch 4,000....which means we're going to see two teams sling it all night long.....like Peter North at a frat party. I think New Orleans wins this one, but I think it will be close yet again. Saints by 3.
Gabe: Saints
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Week 16 Picks
Completing a comeback of Frank Reich proportions, Gabe took the lead with just a couple weeks left to play thanks to a stellar Week 15(or a dismal Week 15 by Dave, whomever you want to point the finger at). Gabe still has two weeks to blow his standing atop the mountain, much like his Giants and Mets and Dave also has two weeks worth of games to embarrass himself like his Packers did last Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium.
We kick off the Week 16 with our take on tonight's battle between the surging Indianapolis Colts and division champion Houston Texans.
We kick off the Week 16 with our take on tonight's battle between the surging Indianapolis Colts and division champion Houston Texans.
LAST WEEK
Gabe: 10-4-2
Dave: 5-9-2
SEASON
Gabe: 111-105-11
Dave: 108-108-11
Texans (-6.5) at Colts
Dave: Texans - I wonder who got more raw of a deal in terms of primetime scheduling: ESPN with Monday Night Football or the NFL Network with their Thursday/Saturday slate. Either way, these games have been as unwatchable as an Oprah Winfrey-Danny Glover sex tape. The Colts are coming off their first win of the season, so you wonder if coach Jim Caldwell is going to give them the Lou Brown speech from "Major League II": "If we win one more, that's what they call a 'winning streak.". It makes the most sense for Indy to continue licking the stamp on the season they've mailed in so far and just take a dive against the Texans and hang on to that #1 pick. After getting humiliated by Carolina(a game your boys at BoomRoasted forgot to pick), Houston isn't going to let themselves get beat by their second lowly team in five days. Heavy dose of Arian Foster here, mixed with some Ben Tate. Texans by 10.
Gabe: Texans
Texans (-6.5) at Colts
Dave: Texans - I wonder who got more raw of a deal in terms of primetime scheduling: ESPN with Monday Night Football or the NFL Network with their Thursday/Saturday slate. Either way, these games have been as unwatchable as an Oprah Winfrey-Danny Glover sex tape. The Colts are coming off their first win of the season, so you wonder if coach Jim Caldwell is going to give them the Lou Brown speech from "Major League II": "If we win one more, that's what they call a 'winning streak.". It makes the most sense for Indy to continue licking the stamp on the season they've mailed in so far and just take a dive against the Texans and hang on to that #1 pick. After getting humiliated by Carolina(a game your boys at BoomRoasted forgot to pick), Houston isn't going to let themselves get beat by their second lowly team in five days. Heavy dose of Arian Foster here, mixed with some Ben Tate. Texans by 10.
Gabe: Texans
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Week 15 Picks cont...
Both men bring undefeated Week 15 records into Sunday after nailing two easy lay-ups in Atlanta and Dallas.
On to the rest of Week 15....
Redskins (+6.5) at Giants
Dave: Giants - When I told you last year that Jason Pierre-Paul was going to be a monster, I hope you listened to me. Right now, the Redskins' best strategy is to just punt the last three games in hopes of landing someone like RGIII or Matt Barkley. The Giants need to win out and they have all the momentum after yet another comeback victory, this time against Dallas. Eli goes for 300 here, JPP notches two more sacks and Gabe stands on his couch in a wife-beater and a Jesus piece while listening to "Lean Back" and doing the Rockaway at halftime. Giants by 13.
Gabe: Giants - My Giants have all of the momentum in the world right now. They finally got off the schneid, thanks in large part to Jason Garrett mismanaging the end of last Sunday night's game. JPP goes off and the Giants offense overwhelms the Redskins D. Giants by two touchdowns.
Packers (-13.5) at Chiefs
Dave: Packers - How angry would I be if my Packers lost to my wife's Chiefs? I told my wife it would be the equivalent of me coming home from a 23-hour shift at work to find her in a threesome with two other dudes while she was simultaneously stabbing both of our cats. Unless Romeo Crennel knows something about Ricky Stanzi that the world doesn't, I see this being another W for Titletown even without Greg Jennings. If it's not....this may very well be the last blog you read from me. Packers by 17.
Gabe: Chiefs - Quite simply, I think two touchdowns is too big of a spread. I have no real logical reason to think the Chiefs are even capable of hanging with the Packers, but two touchdowns is a huge number and I'd love to see the look on Dave's face if the Packers fuck around and lose this game.
Saints (-7.5) at Vikings
Dave: Saints - It's not a good sign when you have a QB controversy this late in the season.....even worse a sign if that battle is between Joe Webb and Christian Ponder. Less of a dispute and more unnerving for Viking fans is the fact that Adrian Peterson returns this week. What does that mean for their chances against N'awlins? Well, nothing, but it gives them a puncher's chance of staying within a touchdown. More likely, though, is Drew Brees carving up this horrid Vikings defense and Saints winning by double digits. Also, someday, somebody will explain to me how Leslie Frazier was able to keep his job after a season like this.
Gabe: Saints - Drew Brees is going to go off today and if the Vikings think they can run with the Saints, they are playing right into Drew Brees' hands. He loves a shootout. Saints by 14.
Seahawks (+3.5) at Bears
Dave: Seahawks - This Bears offense is stagnant without Jay Cutler and even more lifeless with Matt Forte out. The Seahawks are hardly "The Greatest Show On Turf" but they've managed to pull off a few upsets over some heavy hitters(Giants, Ravens) with the occasional offensive explosion. At the very least, Seattle keeps this within a field goal. More likely, Marshawn Lynch puts a dent in this Bears defense and derails their playoff hopes with an upset at Soldier Field. Seahawks by 6.
Gabe: Seahawks - The Seahawks are quietly getting their shit together. At the same time Chicago is falling apart. I honestly don't think the Chicago offense can keep up. I'll take the Seahawks for the straight up win.
Dolphins (+1.5) at Bills
Dave: Bills - I'm not sure why I keep riding with Buffalo except the fact that this game will be played in the cold, the Dolphins can't really run the ball and they just fired their head coach after he rallied the team back from an 0-7 start to win four of his last five. If that doesn't spell a team going into the tank as a final "Fuck you!" to the powers-that-be, then I'm not sure what will. Bills get one last W to salvage what once looked like a dream season. Buffalo by 7.
Gabe: Miami - I would like the Dolphins a lot more in the game if they hadn't just fired their coach. They were winning games and had some momentum. Buffalo has gone back to being terrible. I'll take a flyer and take Miami and the points.
Titans (-6.5) at Colts
Dave: Titans - I was going to continue my trend from last week and just write "Next!" but I wanted to say one quick thing. If voters rob Aaron Rodgers of a unanimous victory for the NFL MVP after he's put on one of the greatest QB seasons in history for a team that might go undefeated because they can't somehow detach their mouths from Peyton Manning's penis, then SHAME..ON...THEM. With or without Peyton Manning, this Colts team was going to be worse than in years' past. 0-16 bad? No. Potentially 5-11? Absolutely. Enough's enough with the Peyton Manning MVP hype.
Gabe: Titans - Next!
Bengals (-7) at Rams
Dave: Bengals - Andy Dalton vs. Kellen Clemens in a battle of two QB's who look like shortstops. Many have Dalton winning the ROTY but I really think he and A.J. Green will have a Willis McGahee-Ken Dorsey for the Heisman effect come voting time. Can you really make the case that one would have been as good without the other? I think the two cancel out and Cam Newton wins this one going away. If your only argument for Dalton is his team has more wins than Newton's, then you have no argument. I don't believe in team accomplishments affecting individual awards. Maybe that's just me. As for this game, I can't see St. Louis notching more than 6 points here. Bengals by 17.
Gabe: Bengals - The Bengals have been beating bad teams and losing to good ones. The Rams suck. Bengals by 11.
Lions (-1) at Raiders
Dave: Lions - A couple factors here: Ndomukong Suh is back and pissed off. The Lions are desperate to stay in the playoff hunt with Chicago having a potential gimme against Seattle, the Falcons blowing out Jacksonville and New York or Dallas on their heels. Also, Carson Palmer just looks plain awful since "unretiring". The Raiders are going to give Matt Stafford plenty of opportunities to go for 400 yards and 5 scores against them thanks to Palmer's Mr. Magoo passing accuracy. I'm thinking Lions by 10.
Gabe: Lions - Suh is going to keep it together for at least one game, right? Either way, the Lions are still fighting to get into the playoffs and need this win. Stafford should have a nice game. Lions by a touchdown.
Patriots (-7.5) at Broncos
Dave: Patriots - I fancy myself a Tim Tebow fan but even I recognize this as a battle of two overhyped evils. The media thinks everything Tebow does is magic and a win here will turn him from Football Jesus to an actual God. As for Brady, the man can never do any wrong in the eyes of the sports media so a win here will be just a day at the park for him. However, Brady comes into this for the first time in a while as NOT the most hyped QB on the field. The Patriots have had to hear Tebow's name all week. You really think Bill Belichick, who successfully outsmarted a cerebral assassin like Peyton Manning for a few years, hasn't spent tireless man hours coming up with a scheme to control Touchdown Timmy and finally put a stop to all this Tebow madness? Denver's not going to keep up with the Brady Bunch offensively. Pats by 14.
Gabe: Patriots - Did anyone see the Tim Tebow sketch on SNL last night? Outstanding. I think Tom Brady won't say it out loud, but he and Coach Hoodie want to win this game 49-0. I think the Pats go up big and do it early and take all of the steam out of the game. Pats by 17.
Jets (+2.5) at Eagles
Dave: Jets - A battle between two teams that should have been a lot better this season that also possess two excellent secondaries. This game will come down to who can run the ball because passing will be at a premium. We know Philly can't stop the run. We know, every now and then, New York can. We know the Jets are a smashmouth defense. We know Michael Vick is made of paper mache. I think Vince Young makes an appearance here and the Jets romp while Andy Reid gets booed out of the building. Jets by 16.
Gabe: Eagles - The Eagles' offense is really fast. I think they are too fast for the Jets. The Eagles are also at home and clinging to slim playoff hopes. They need this win. It will be a close game, but I think the Eagles get a late TD and win by 4.
Browns (+7) at Cardinals
Dave: Cardinals - Seneca Wallace vs. John Skelton.....I'd rather have my wife stand on my balls in high heels than watch this game. Joe Haden is going to put the clamps on Larry Fitzgerald so any thoughts that this will be even remotely exciting ends there. More likely, it's a field goal battle for the first three quarters before Patrick Peterson runs off another punt return TD and Arizona wins 10-6 with Jose Valverde picking up the save. And, yes, I know that means the Cardinals won't cover, but I really couldn't care less about this game.
Gabe: Browns - I was going to try to make an argument less coherent than Dave's for this game, but I'm not sure that's possible. No way the Cardinals win this by more than a touchdown. They'll win by 4 at the most, if they win at all.
Ravens (-2.5) at Chargers
Dave: Ravens - San Diego has nothing to play for, their coach is getting canned in three weeks and they are facing a team with a stout defense that could potentially wrap up the division and maybe even the one seed with a win here. I always worry about Joe Flacco playing where national TV cameras are also present but this Chargers team has been so putrid that I don't even think Flacco can screw this up. Ravens by 13 behind another big day from Ray Rice.
Gabe: Ravens - The Ravens defense is too good. The Chargers love to yack, especially in primetime. Ravens by 10.
Steelers (+3) at Niners
Dave: Steelers - No Maurkice Pouncey. No James Harrison and a hobbled Big Ben probably giving it a go against the best run defense in the country. This should be all San Fran, right? Wrong. As much of an impact James Harrison has for this defense, the Steelers will find a way to dominate without him. The Steelers are also pretty good against the run, too, which means the Niners are going to have to keep Pittsburgh at a distance by using the passing game. I like the Steelers' chances of moving the ball against a Pat Willis-less defense moreso than Alex Smith against this new Steel Curtain. Steelers use veteran experience to not crumble under the bright light of MNF and Alex Smith finds Troy Polamalu for the game-winning pick-6. And if you think this is bad, Niners fans, how about this: a loss here potentially drops you to the three seed and a possible date with Dallas, who beat the Niners back in Week 2. One and done for Jim Harbaugh's boys? You never know.
Gabe: Niners - The Steelers have to do all that traveling and are hobbled. The Pouncey injury could turn out to be huge. This will be a close, smash-mouth game, but I'll take the Niners to get the 4 point win.
Friday, December 16, 2011
Black Magic
With Chris Paul traded to the Clippers, all of the focus now turns to the Orlando Magic and their quandary with free agent-to-be Dwight Howard(Side note: Nets PG Deron Williams is also a free agent after this season. If you're wondering why there isn't a huge fuss over whether he'll stay or go like there was with CP3 and Doomsday, it's because a. he was already traded once from Utah to New Jersey and b. he was smart enough to announce there's a good chance he'll stay with the Nets while also giving himself an out-clause by putting the chances at 90%.....meaning there's a 10% chance he has a change of heart and bolts for New York. Still, nobody has benefited more from all the hoopla surrounding Paul and Howard than D-Will. He's become the forgotten member of the 2012's Big Three. Good for him.). Howard told Orlando he'd like to be traded. The Magic shopped around before, allegedly, taking him off the trading block. D-12 said, in not many words, "That's all fine and good, but I still want a trade." That should tell you something about Howard's chances of staying put.
Now, the Magic could very well trade Howard, and my bet is he's a Laker by year's end(because the Magic aren't stupid enough to trade the best center in the league within the conference but ARE stupid enough to take back Andrew Bynum and his Joe Namath knees in return). If that last sentence made you cringe as a Magic fan, it should. Magic fans know they've been here before. You see, it's hard for Magic fans to cry about their misfortunes when you have Cleveland fans, who've never won a thing and routinely get stomach punches like the Mickey Ward-esque body shot LeBron dealt them last summer during "The Decision". It's hard for Magic fans to whine about losing talent when you compare what they lost to what the Hornets have lost over the last two decades, starting with Alonzo Mourning and culminating with this week's Paul trade.
Still, if it's hard out here for a pimp, it's even harder out here for a Magic fan. Sure, you've been to two NBA Finals in the last 16 years(which is more than, say, Nuggets fans, can say) but you got eliminated from both appearances in spectacular fashion(Swept by the Rockets in 1995, losing to the Lakers in 5 in 2009). However, because of those two appearances and the fact that the team has had its share of good fortune(locking down the first pick three times in the past two decades, including back-to-back in '92 and '93, luring Tracy McGrady and Grant Hill as free agents in 2000, etc.), fans of other teams(both successful and otherwise) turn their nose at the idea of describing Magic fans as tortured. That led me to take a deeper look into the franchise's history and why the "Here we go again...." feel with the Dwight Howard saga 15 years after losing Shaq is enough to put Magic fans on suicide watch this summer.
*May 17, 1992: The Orlando Magic win the 1992 NBA Draft lottery and use the #1 overall pick a month later on an athletic big man out of LSU named Shaquille O'Neal. Shaq wins Rookie of the Year, becomes the first rookie voted in as a starter in the All-Star Game since MJ in 1985 and takes the NBA by storm with his backboard-smashing dunks, his huge smile, outgoing personality and his awful skills on the mic as a rapper. Three years into his tenure in Orlando, Shaq leads a star-studded class with the likes of Nick Anderson, Dennis Scott, Penny Hardaway and Scott Skiles to the NBA Finals, where they would be bested by Hakeem Olajuwon's Rockets in the first of The Dream's two titles.
How it went wrong: In what should have been a sign of things to come during Shaq's career, "The Diesel" and Penny fought over Alpha Dog status and the team never built on its success from reaching the '95 Finals. In the summer of '96, Shaq skipped town to Los Angeles to become the next one in a long line of great Laker centers. The Magic became Penny's team, but the Magic floundered while Shaq won three rings in L.A. as part of the greatest post-Jordan dynasty in NBA history(Yes, Gabe, better than your Tim Duncan Spurs). Orlando never filled the void in the middle left by Shaq's departure until 2004, when they won the lottery again and selected another gregarious big man from the South. You'll get to know him a little later.
*June 30, 1993: Defying a 66-1 odds that they'd land the first pick, the Magic yet again ended up on top of the NBA Draft with a shocking win in the lottery. With the first pick of the '93 Draft, the Magic selected a graceful, potentially once-in-a-generation forward in Michigan's Chris Webber.
How it went wrong: In a moment covered in detail in Bill Simmons' "Book of Basketball", the Magic were wowed by the workouts by the aforementioned Penny Hardaway, and traded Webber to Golden State for Penny's rights, robbing the city of Orlando and the NBA of years of a new era Twin Towers with Shaq and C-Webb. Penny became a star in Orlando, while Webber clashed with Don Nelson in Golden State and went on a tailspin that saw him go to Washington for Tom Gugliotta and a few first rounders before getting his career back in order with the Sacramento Kings(where he would be held back by his own ineptitude as well as Shaq's Lakers). In an era dominated by teams led by big men, sans Jordan's Bulls(Karl Malone's Jazz, Hakeem's Rockets, David Robinson and later Tim Duncan's Spurs, Shaq's Lakers and even Patrick Ewing's Knicks), the Magic opted for the tradition inside-outside combo of Shaq and Penny. As you may have read before, Penny and Shaq couldn't co-exist and Shaq fled to L.A. while Penny became a star and then a malcontent and he, too, went West to Phoenix, where he would blow out his knee and lose his relevance. Webber, meanwhile, appeared in a few Western Conference Finals with the Kings and his potential pairing with Shaq will go down as one of the greatest "What if's" in the sport's history.
*August 3, 2000: The Magic acquire Tracy McGrady from Toronto and Grant Hill from Detroit in sign-and-trades in a dual signing that would have been a much bigger deal if it happened today. For those who are too young to remember the pre-Orlando Hill(or for those that forgot), Hill's arrival to Orlando was every bit as significant as LeBron coming to Miami last summer. Hill left the Pistons as perhaps one of the 5 or 10 best players in the league and his acquisition was seen as a huge coup for Orlando(remember, this was a time before Facebook and Twitter and round-the-clock sports coverage and blogs and everything that makes major news stories nauseating today. If Hill and T-Mac are free agents in their prime today, they probably get coaxed into signing in a big market like New York or Chicago and then we get subjected to thousands of rants about how the duo joining forces was bad for the NBA as small market owners mourn the loss of their ability to compete in today's day and age). McGrady, meanwhile, was seen as more potential than proven commodity at that point. As the understudy to his super-popular(at the time, at least) cousin, Vince Carter, in Toronto, T-Mac looked at Orlando as his opportunity to shine but experts saw him more as the Pippen to Hill's Jordan.
How it went wrong: Ankle issues completely derailed Hill's career almost the second he suited up for Orlando. He played just four games in his debut season with the Magic. In 6 seasons in Orlando, Hill played in just 200 of 410 games(starting 196 of them) and played more than 65 games in a season just twice. Without Hill, McGrady became a one-man wrecking crew, but got some help from the likes of Rookie of the Year Mike Miller. T-Mac won two scoring titles and three playoff appearances, but could never get them out of the first round. Hill would sign with Phoenix in 2007 and, in typical "Ain't that some shit, Orlando" fashion, played 70 games for the Suns his first season and managing his first full 82 the year after. McGrady grew tired with doing it all himself, went into cruise control, and the Magic floundered to a league-worst 21-61 record in 2004. McGrady demanded out of Orlando and got his wish in a trade in Houston in exchange for Steve Francis and a couple other nobodies. Ironically, McGrady would be leaving just as the Magic were about to get the big help he needed.
* June 24, 2004: The Orlando Magic use their 3rd #1 pick in 12 years on a talented big man out of Southwest Atlanta Christian Academy named Dwight Howard. Further showcasing their luck, the Magic, Orlando swings a deal with Denver to acquire the rights to St. Joesph's point guard Jameer Nelson. Howard becomes a double-double machine from Day 1 and, by 2007, he's an NBA All-Star who would later make four more All-Star appearances, win three Defensive Player of the Year awards and charms the shit out of people with an entertaining Slam Dunk Contest win in 2008 and even more entertaining title defense in a loss to 5'9 Nate Robinson a year later. After a slow start, Nelson emerges as one of the game's most underrated point men and he and Howard help lead the Magic to the Finals(although Nelson missed much of the regular season with a shoulder injury, he did make a triumphant return later in the year) after an improbably Eastern Conference Finals upset of LeBron James' Cavs. The Magic lose to Kobe's Lakers but not before notching their first Finals win in franchise history.
How it went wrong: The only explanation for Howard's desire to leave Orlando is a combination of the allure of the big market and the fear that his career as a one-man show will be parallel to McGrady's. Many big names have come and gone as potential Doomsday sidekicks from Rashard Lewis to Vince Carter to Jason Richardson to Gilbert Arenas, but the Magic keep falling short. Whether he's dealt this season or not, Howard's chances of staying in Orlando are bleak. To make matters worse, the team that has the best chance of landing D-12 is the same team that stole Shaq away a little more than a decade and a half ago. That's tough to watch for Magic fans and the sense of deja vu is enough to cause riots at Disney World. As for Nelson, he doesn't have the likes of Rafer Alston or Courtney Lee or Arenas to try to syphon his playing time away but his desire to stay in Orlando is probably linked to Howard's status.
Unless the Magic can get a Godfather offer for Howard, the future is bleak for Orlando. Dwight Howard's the best center in basketball and, at 26, he still hasn't even sniffed his prime yet. That's scary when you consider he's already a 20-15 guy based on power and athleticism alone. Imagine Howard feasting on defenses that can't double him because of Kobe Bryant or him tearing down the house in Brooklyn, catching lobs from Deron Williams. It's something exciting the think about....unless you're a Magic fan.
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Week 15 Picks
It's coming down to the wire with three weeks to play! Gabe shortened Dave's lead to just two after a slightly less terrible Week 14.
On to Week 15 and tonight's unwatchable Jags-Falcons clash as well as the slightly-more-entertaining-for-sheer-comedic-purposes that is Cowboys-Bucs on Saturday night.
LAST WEEK
Gabe: 8-7-1
Dave: 6-9-1
SEASON
Dave: 103-99-9
Gabe: 101-101-9
Jaguars (+11.5) at Falcons
Dave: Falcons - Not as easy as a pick as it seems. For some reason, this Falcons offense is on cruise control so any preliminary thoughts of this being a 42-3 rout need to be tempered. The Falcons do stop the run well and that's really the only way Jacksonville moves the ball. Still, while this game will be hard to watch, I think we're looking at something closer to 28-10 than 35-0 because, other than Green Bay, nobody is really blowing scrubs out of the water on a consistent basis. Falcons by 14.
Gabe: Falcons
Cowboys (-7) at Bucs
Dave: Cowboys - I was tempted to go with Tampa given Dallas' December woes.....and then I saw this. On the one hand, Jay Ratliff flying off the handle at a reporter can be seen as a loss of composure. I see it, however, as bad news for the middle of Tampa's offensive line. The Bucs turn the ball over A LOT. Josh Freeman has 18 INT's on the season and RB LaGarrette Blount has lost five fumbles. Those numbers might not matter much against this shit-show of a secondary, but I'll take anger and desperation over talented and mistake-prone. Cowboys by 10.
Gabe: Cowboys
Fake NBA Headline of the Week: Boycotting His Airness
Throughout his illustrious career, Micheal Jordan was as synonymous with selling sneakers as he was winning championships and dunking from the foul line.
That distinction seems poised to take a hit. Fourteen current NBA players signed to represent Jordan's clothing company have announced that they're done with being a part of the Jordan brand after the legendary Chicago Bull-turned-Charlotte Bobcats owner "turned his back" on the players at labor negotiations during the NBA lockout.
Knicks forward Carmelo Anthony, Miami Heat guard Dwayne Wade, Celtics guard Ray Allen, Hawks swingman Joe Johnson and new Clippers point man Chris Paul were some of the more notable names to pull their names off Jordan's roster. Others include Rockets shooter Kevin Martin, Blazers forward Gerald Wallace and a man who currently finds himself the awkward position of working under Jordan in two capacities: Bobcats point guard D.J. Augustin.
Said Augustin of the possibility of backlash from MJ over removing himself from Jordan's clothing company: "Maybe he'll trade me for peanuts like he did everybody else on this team."
The players' argument is that Jordan, who endured the same labor strife prior to his second retirement in 1998, flipped on the player's union he was once the most popular member of by publicly championing the owners to remain vigilant in their stance against the players, even if it meant the loss of the 2011 NBA season. Because of that, they are done with the Jordan brand and asking fans for a nationwide boycott of His Airness' gear as a sign of solidarity against the man who they feel, not only wronged the players, but hurt the fans as well by keeping the lockout alive.
"He wants us to go out there and represent his clothing line and make him some money and then, at the same time, he's whispering in David Stern's ear to try to keep US from getting paid? It's crazy, man." said Carmelo Anthony. Added D-Wade: "Would MJ the player still wear Nikes if Phil Knight was telling Commissioner Stern to keep the lockout going and take food out of his family's mouth? I bet not. His ass would probably retire again."
The most visibly upset of the departing stars was Paul, who not only blames Jordan for his role in maintaining the lockout but also in shutting down last week's potential three-team trade that would have sent CP3 to the Los Angeles Lakers. "It's hard for me, man." said Paul. "First he tried to kill the season. Now.....I mean, I might have been a Laker if not for him. Nothing against the Clippers. I'm happy to be here and L.A. is L.A., regardless, but what he did to us was not right." continued the former Hornet.
Paul, one of the classiest and most mild-mannered men in the league, couldn't control his anger from goating him into taking one last swipe at his former boss and mentor: "I guess a man who never made a good trade in his life wouldn't know one if it was staring him right in the face."
The story first came about during the photo shoot for SLAM Magazine's 2011 NBA preview. On the controversial cover, Paul is flanked by Anthony and Wade and seen ripping a Jordan poster in half. The interview with the three stars featured quotes taking shots similar to the previous quote from Paul, with the trio weighing in on everything from Jordan's alleged betrayal to MJ's lack of success running not one, but two NBA franchises into the ground while calling the shots in the front office. "He crushed the Wizards. He's crushing the Bobcats and now he's crushing his own brand by turning his back on the guys who helped build his label. Maybe he should have just stuck with playing basketball." Wade says in the interview.
When asked for his opinion on the matter following the boycott and the SLAM interview, Ray Allen offered some insight....and then took a jab of his own: "For us, it's like we were stabbed in the back by one of our own. Mike's been through all this before. If anyone should understand what we were going through being locked out, it should be him. I understand he has to look out for the owners because he is one, but rather than be the voice of reason for us, he was trying to shut us down." said the all-time three point leader "If he was betting on us still working with him after that, then maybe he's as bad a gambler as they say he is."
The stars didn't offer up what they plan to endorse now that they've left Jordan, but Wade said that he'd had talks with teammate LeBron James to start his own clothing line through his deal with Nike and build it with the guys leaving Jordan when their contracts are up and then joked: "But according to ya'll, 'Bron ain't enough of a leader to do all that."
Jordan couldn't be reached for comment when asked for his reaction to the boycott. A Jordan spokesperson also declined comment beyond a reminder that the players were under contract with Jordan and that they would handle the matter internally. Commissioner David Stern called it a "business matter" and "not something the NBA's concerned with". He also added "It took us five months to get the players on the court. What they wear once they get there is the least of our worries."
Gambling On A Savior
The Los Angeles Lakers are finished.
Take a minute to analyze that sentence because, I assure you, we will be looking back at this day and those words and nodding collectively by season's end. Take a deep breath, Laker fans. Relax. Try to avoid the typical overreaction and hyperbole and use some common sense. Then, I want you to close your eyes and say these words aloud and I want them to seep into your brain because, as painful as it's going to be for you to utter them, you'll thank me for it later.
I want you to close your eyes and say: "It's over. We had our shot and we blew it."
There will be no sixth ring for Kobe Bean Bryant, at least not while he's adorning the purple and gold. Look, Laker fans can point fingers and jump up and down in outrage over getting jobbed out of the Chris Paul deal by the NBA. It was unfair and unjust but so was the Pau Gasol trade a few years ago. Karma's a bitch. Chris Paul should probably be a Laker right now, but he's not. It's the way the cookie crumbles. There are Knicks fans who think LeBron James should be playing home games in the Garden. There are Nets fans that are dead set that Dwight Howard is coming to Brooklyn. After awhile, you give up on your hopes and dreams, no matter how close you were and how vivid it seemed inside your head.
The end of the Lakers' run as THE TEAM in the National Basketball Association has everything to do with Paul and Howard.....and nothing at all. I'll address the latter point first. For one, the Lakers didn't HAVE to make a move this offseason, with the exception of maybe a slight upgrade at point guard. The notion that the Lakers had to blow up the team following Phil Jackson's retirement and a postseason sweep by the eventual champion Dallas Mavericks was more sports talk radio fodder than an actual mandatory game plan. Yes, if the Lakers could pull off deals that would allow them to bring in the likes of Paul and Howard and team them with "The Black Mamba", it would re-affirm L.A. as the team to beat as well as set them up nicely going forward long after Kobe retires. However, even the most delusional fan had to think that the Lakers weren't going to be able to pull that off and the wisest of fans should have been smart enough to realize why they didn't have to. A starting five of Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol, Ron Artest(or Metta World Peace or whatever the fuck that nutjob is calling himself these days), Kobe and what's left of Derek Fisher, with Lamar Odom off the bench is formidable enough to make another run at the title, provided new coach Mike Brown can reel his heavy hitters in and keep them from coming apart like they did in the Dallas series.
Instead, they went with the nuclear bomb strategy and, in a stroke of pure genius, they managed to pull off a deal for Paul that didn't involve them giving up half the team and, at the last second, they got the rug pulled from under them. To use a football analogy, rather than kick the 55-yard field goal to tie, the Lakers chucked a Hail Mary in the air, came down with it with two feet in the end zone.....then had the referee rule it incomplete even after the booth review. It was a real tragedy what happened to the Los Angeles and, had it been someone less disliked than the Lakers, we might have made a bigger deal of it(which is saying something, because everyone who is everyone freaked out over this trade). Frustrated and outraged, the Lakers foolishly pulled out of the Paul talks and allowed their lowly little brother to swoop in and take their grand prize. That's where Paul and Howard add to the Lakers' demise. By swinging and missing on Paul, they publicly made it known that they were willing to be sellers if they found the right price(in this case, CP3 and D12). That shocker led them to be bullied by a guy in Odom, who spent the first two seasons of his reality show, getting bullied by his heavy-set, ugly-duckling, pseudo-famous wife. Outraged by being involved in trade talks, Odom wanted out and, rather than wait for a suitable deal, L.A. panicked and shipped Odom off for a bag of pennies. To make matters worse, they shipped him to Dallas.....the team that just got done cleaning their clock in the playoffs. You can't tell me there isn't a scenario where Odom couldn't have been flipped for something more than a dump of salary and some low-2nd round picks. You couldn't have gotten a suitable replacement at point guard for a versatile big man coming off his best season? Really?
In the span of seven days, the Lakers watched themselves get screwed out of a fair trade for the guy they've wanted for months, be forced to deal one of their best trade chips for nothing out of fear that Odom's unhappiness would leak to the public(which, it did anyway....Thanks, Twitter.), and then sit back and let the Clippers steal Paul from them and potentially resurrect their franchise.....IN THE LAKERS' HOUSE. The Clippers coming into the Staples Center to face the Lakers these next two seasons will be like the kid brother you used to beat the crap out of of when you were kids coming back home after a couple years in the military, except now he's cut like Vin Diesel and well-trained in MMA and you're 32 with a beer gut and tennis elbow.
The Lakers' last hope is trading for Howard, except Orlando has proclaimed any trade talks dead, which is yet another kick to the Lakers' balls. Make no mistake, the Lakers HAVE to find a way to get Dwight Howard, preferably before tip-off on Christmas. What was once a pipe dream now has to be a reality. Why? Because while the Lakers are a superb collection of talent, they are also a band of fragile minds. Don't agree? Think back to that Mavs series. Do you think the lasting images of Andrew Bynum's 2011 season would be him getting ushered off the court with his shirt off after clotheslining J.J. Barea if he were someone who was even the slightest bit composed? Would we not be thinking differently of Pau Gasol if he didn't let a bad breakup with his girlfriend completely take him out of the 2011 postseason? And do I even need to mention how Ron Artest is crazy? With the exception of Kobe, this batch of Lakers have the same frail, overwhelming lack of self-confidence and sensitive personalities you'd more commonly find on an after-school special on bulimic teenage girls. As if taking over for Phil Jackson wasn't tough enough for Mike Brown, now he has to go into this season stroking the egos of a young, talented center with no brain and a sack-less finesse power forward with no heart to make them feel better about being on the trading block. He's like Dorothy trying to lead a band of misfits to the Wizard of Oz.
That's why the Howard trade HAS to happen. You can't have this kind of dysfunction pollute your veteran squad under new leadership in a shortened season. Kobe is already pissed about how these last few changes went and he doesn't possess that same gene that MJ had that forced his teammates to put aside the bullshit and play hard. For the Lakers to remain relevant this season and beyond, they have to swing some deal that sends Gasol or Bynum and others(not both, because that would be an even more foolish display of desperation, not to mention frontcourt suicide) to Orlando in exchange for Doomsday. Dwight Howard holds the Lakers' season in his large hands, and he does so in a different uniform on a team that has no desire to trade him at the moment. That's why the Lakers are screwed. For so long, the thrill of playing in Hollywood and the shiny luster of the purple and gold had been enough to have faith in Showtime. Now, those days are dead. All that's left is false hope from a fan base that will just as easily trade their Kobe jerseys for Blake Griffin jerseys the minute CP3 launches an alley-oop to his slam dunk champion big man.
If the Lakers can't land Howard, they're slightly better than a lottery team because, not only will the trade talk destroy whatever chemistry they had, they also dealt away their best backup plan in Odom for when Bynum's knee snaps like a twig under a bear's paw. With good shooting at a premium, being able to rebound and protect the rim is paramount. It's why a team like the Mavs can beat a Heat team with three of the fifteen best players in the league and why a guy like Tyson Chandler can be paid like he's David Robinson by the Knicks. Patrolling the paint is something Bynum does well....when he's healthy, which is almost never, and when he can't control the paint when he's healthy, he resorts to choke-slamming 5'6 Puerto Ricans with the same force Rob Gronkowski uses to spike a football or Reggie Bush uses to penetrate Kim Kardashian's tush. That's why all the eggs need to be put in Howard's basket. An offseason spent being conned into thinking they need to make a big splash has culminated with their season hinging on them actually making one.
Open your eyes, Lakers fans, and remember this day because, come June, the next words you'll be reading will be: "I told you so."
Sunday, December 11, 2011
More Week 14 Picks
The Steelers offense sputtered Thursday night after Ben Roethlisberger's ankle bent like Beckham, allowing the Browns to cover and The BoomRoasted boys to start Week 14 0-for-1.
Like Big Ben in the 2nd half or in the bathroom stall with a teeny bopper, we won't be denied! On to the rest of Week 14!
Texans (+3) at Bengals
Dave: Bengals - The Texans are poised to be the first division winner that gets got in the playoffs this season, thanks to being chomped on repeatedly by the injury bug. The team that knocks them out in January may very well be these Bengals. Cincy has struggled a bit the last couple of weeks but I think having to face an Andre Johnson-less/T.J. Yates-led offense will get them back on track. Bengals by 10.
Gabe: Houston – The Texans have the league’s top defense and enough fire power on offense to overcome Cincy’s D. I think it will be close, but the Texans will get the straight up win.
Vikings (+11) at Lions
Dave: Lions - Can't like Detroit enough in this one. They need the W to stay afloat in the Wild Card race and Minnesota will be going on the road without AP and with Christian Ponder hobbled by a hip injury. The Vikings might be able to get some momentum early with the Lions still adjusting without Ndomukong Suh, but I think Matt Stafford goes for 400 here and we start to wave bye-bye to Leslie Frazier. Lions by 16.
Gabe: Detroit– Detroit is reeling but they need to win this game to keep any hope of making the playoffs. Minnesota will be minus Adrian Peterson. Lions by 14.
Saints (-3.5) at Titans
Dave: Saints - New Orleans has shook off some of the inconsistancy that plagued them for most of the year to emerge as the biggest threat to Green Bay's perfect season. Speaking of emergences, Chris Johnson is finally alive and breathing with a few CJ2K-ish weeks in a row. CJ getting back on his grind is too little, too late as the Titans' receiving corps are too banged up to make this offense balanced enough to keep the Saints on their toes. Drew Brees will go for another 3-hundy on a tough Titans D and New Orleans wins by 13.
Gabe: New Orleans – The Saints are the hottest team in the NFL not named the Green Bay Packers. They’ll have no trouble in Tennessee. Chris Johnson may have woken up, but there is nothing Drew Brees likes more than a shoot-out. Saints by 10.
Eagles (+3) at Dolphins
Dave: Eagles - WAIT A MINUTE! THAT'S MIKE VICK'S MUSIC!!!! The Dolphins rise from front-runner in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes to the league's toughest out not led by Tim Tebow has been a fun story for the last month. That story ends today. The Eagles may be a colossal disappointment and hopefully this season teaches teams lessons about building "dream teams" and allows Philly to finally can Andy Reid, but I think they have one last big performance in them before packing it in for the winter. I'm calling for an upset Vick-tory, with Mike going for 3 scores(1 running, two passing....one to Celek, the other to Jackson), while the Eagles' secondary cools off Matt Moore. Eagles by 10.
Gabe: Miami – Mike Vick is supposed to come back, but it doesn’t matter. Andy Reid has lost the team and they have packed it in for this year. Miami is on a roll and will win by a touchdown.
Chiefs (+10.5) at Jets
Dave: Chiefs - 10.5 points is a lot for an anemic offense going up against a defense that has played above and beyond to compensate for its own offensive woes. Teams have barely skated by Kansas City in recent weeks and that trend won't stop here with the shaky Jets. I think Tyler Palko stinks up the joint yet again, but the Jets struggle to get some traction and we're looking at a 13-6 W for Gang Green.
Gabe: New York – Kansas City is awful. The Jets will run all over them. Jets by 14.
Patriots (-9) at Redskins
Dave: Patriots - Next!
Gabe: Washington – I have no logical reason to think the Redskins have any chance to win this game, other than in my lifetime of rooting against the Skins, this is exactly the kind of game they like to fuck around and win. I don’t think they will win, but they will keep it close. Pats by a late field goal.
Colts (+16.5) at Ravens
Dave: Ravens - Next!
Gabe: Baltimore – Indy is done. They put up a fight last week because they hate the Pats. They don’t sniff the endzone and won’t come within 20 of the Ravens.
Falcons (-3) at Panthers
Dave: Falcons - Remember when experts thought going all in for Julio Jones was a good move because it would transform the Falcons into one of the best offenses in the league? How's that prediction working out for you, "experts"? The Falcons have their struggles on O and that might continue here with Mike Turner slowed by injury, but Atlanta can stop the one thing Carolina does well: run the ball. Cam Newton is going to have to make some plays with his arm and Dunta Robinson is going to be on Steve Smith like a glove. I see Carolina giving a valiant effort here but Atlanta eeks by. Falcons by 6.
Gabe: Carolina – Atlanta has been playing decently and they have won a few games recently, which means they are due for a letdown. Why not today on the road against Cam Cam and the Panthers? I’ll take Carolina for a straight up 4 point win.
Bucs (-3) at Jaguars
Dave: Bucs - Man, how bad are the Jags? Blaine Gabbert looks like he's not the answer at QB. MoJo D has fell off the face of the Earth. There isn't a receiver that makes you blink on the roster and the D is average at best. The Bucs should roll here in front of a half-packed house in what will probably feel more like a home game for Tampa than Jacksonville. Josh Freeman is back and I think he opens up a can on the Jags. Jaguars by 14.
Gabe: Tampa Bay - Speaking of teams that have packed it in for the year….Jacksonville. I don’t care how cool the new owners mustache is, the Jags have nothing to play for and Tampa Bay is still thinking playoffs. Bucs by 6.
Bears (+3) at Broncos
Dave: Broncos - I'm not betting against Tebow this close to Christmas when he's playing a team that's starting a bag of feces at QB and a power runner that was washed up two years ago at running back. Touchdown Jesus' Goldberg-like streak is going to continue as he and the Donkeys feast on another crappy team to keep their division hopes alive. Broncos by 6.
Gabe: Denver – Ugh, I hate having to pick Tim Tebow to win again. In this game you have two good defenses and two offenses that are going to struggle to move the ball. This is going to come down to someone making a late push on offense to win the game. Nuff said. Denver by 4.
Raiders (+11.5) at Packers
Dave: Packers - I wanted to go reverse jinx here, but Gabe's creeping up on my lead and I need all the easy W's I can get. The Carson Palmer trade was as much a disaster as expected, as he's now being charged with murdering the Raiders playoff hopes. If Charles Woodson is ready to go after getting knocked out with a concussion late against Gabe's Giants last week, Palmer's chances of keeping it close will be non-existant. The Packers roll here and the world gets introduced to Brandon Saine. Packers by 16.
Gabe: Green Bay – I’m not picking against them, not until they give me a reason to do so.
49ers (-3.5) at Cardinals
Dave: 49ers - Oh, this line should be much higher. I know San Fran isn't much on offense but you're talking about a team that's 10-2 with the best defense in the NFC going up against a team that's putrid on both sides of the ball. Two of Arizona's five wins have come because of Patrick Peterson punt returns. Another came last week when they stunned Dallas with a LeRod Stephens-Howling screen pass in OT. THIS is the team that's supposed to keep it close against the NFC's 2 seed? I think we see Alex Smith let out the big guns here(I know, I laughed a little when I wrote that, too) and San Francisco treats Arizona to a beatdown. Niners by 16.
Gabe: San Francisco – The 49ers may have already wrapped up the division, but they should be looking to try to lock up a playoff bye. The Cardinals suck too. Niners by 7.
Bills (+7) at Chargers
Dave: Bills - It's hard to see the Chargers giving a lot of effort knowing that, win or lose, Norv Turner is getting fired. Now, you might say they'll use that as motivation like Miami did with Tony Sparano but if the Bolts cared that much about playing hard for their beleaguered head coach, they wouldn't be in this situation in the first place. I'm not sure Buffalo has enough to pull off the upset, but could they keep it within a touchdown? I think so. Bolts by 4.
Gabe: San Diego – I never like cold weather teams having to play in the heat. Also, Buffalo has to travel across the country to play this game. Also, they’re the Bills. I have almost no faith in the Chargers either, but they should take care of business here. San Diego by 11.
Giants (+4.5) at Cowboys
Dave: Giants - There's only a couple things that can keep Old Man Gabe up after 8 on a Sunday: a primetime Chelsea soccer game, a Kings of Leon concert and watching his beloved Giants stink up the joint on national television. No matter who wins tonight, we all lose. If Dallas wins, it will be a week of listening to talking heads praise Tony Romo while NY radio massacres Eli Manning. If New York wins, we'll get nothing but "You can't spell elite without Eli" quips and "Should Dallas trade Tony Romo for Peyton Manning?" topics on ESPN. I'm going with New York because I can't stomach Cowboys fans in the playoffs. Look, Cowboys fans, your QB is a dud, your team is overrated and you'll never win another Super Bowl. So quit clogging up my news feed on Facebook with your statuses about how this is "your year"! Giants by 10.
Gabe: New York – This is simple. As my friend Henri, a lifelong Cowboys fan and smartest football fan I know, said….”The Giants are pissed. I’d hate to have a star on my helmet on Sunday.” Agreed. The Giants harass Romo and get a 7 point win.
Rams (+10) at Seahawks
Dave: Seahawks - The NFL tried to get this game moved to a local network instead of primetime on national television, but David Stern blocked the move because a bunch of bitter small-market owners complained about big-market teams getting an unfair edge in TV revenue. Truth be told, I'd rather fix myself a glass sandwich and wash it down with a cup of bleach than watch this damn football game. Jon Gruden and Mike Tirico are unbearable enough, but an NFL game where the best QB on the field is Tarvaris Jackson? Goodbye, MNF. Hello, Monday Night Raw.
Gabe: Seattle – St. Louis is terrible and Seattle is one of the toughest places in the NFL to play. Seattle wins by 13 in yet another Monday night game that I won’t be watching. I got made fun of this week for never having seen the movie Casino. Perhaps I’ll watch that instead.
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