Conference Championship Picks

Well, the perfect postseason came to an end as both myself(Dave, who came in 4-0) and Gabe went 2-2. With three games remaining, I have to go 2 for 3 to finish above .500. Anyway, you know the drill. Here's our conference championship picks.



Last Week: Dave 2-2, Gabe 2-2



Season: Gabe 140-117-5, Dave 128-129-5



Jets (+7.5) at Colts



Dave: Jets- This game gives me far too many flashbacks of the Packers-Giants NFC Championship in 2007. The Jets are the mighty underdog that got hot at the right time and keep pulling off upsets with the time-honored playoff tradition of running the ball down your throats and a steady defense(ala the '07 Giants) and the Colts are an offensive juggernaut with the battle-tested quarterback who look too good to slip up against an inferior opponent at home(just like the Packers were).



When the Colts decided to rest their starters midway into their Week 16 clash with these same Jets they did two things: 1. They pissed off the Jets and 2. By deliberately blowing a chance at 19-0, the Colts managed to overshadow the fact that, even with their first team in, the Jets were giving them fits. (They also helped get the Jets into the playoffs by laying down. So, I guess they accomplished three things). Every conventional school of thought would go against a team led by a rookie QB and a rookie head coach making the Super Bowl....but that's the beauty of the 2010 Jets: they go against the grain. In a league that has become pass-dominated, they win by running it. While teams like Indy fluster opposing QBs with bookend pass-rushers, the Jets don't have a single edge rusher you gameplan against. Sure, in theory, the Colts should have no problem with a Jets team whose blueprint is eerily similar to the Ravens team they just demolished last week(run-based offense, QB not a passing threat, hard-hitting blitzing 3-4 defense, playmaker in the secondary you always have to account for), but again, the Jets wipe their ass with logic. In a year where the Yankees are World Champs, "Jersey Shore" is a nationwide TV phenomenon and the Nets and Knicks look like big-time players in the LeBron Sweepstakes, why can't Gang Green continue the magic carpet ride and fly into Miami? Even if they don't pull off the upset, I like this one to be very close.

Gabe: Colts - The Jets are going to want to keep this game in the 17 to 20 point range. They are going to want to run the ball and play great defense, and keep the Colts offense off the field. That's a great plan, but here's the problem - the Colts don't need to be on the field that much to score. The Colts have a quick strike offense that can cover eighty yards in four plays if they have to. Plus, Peyton Manning is getting to see the Jets defense twice in one month. If they blitz, he'll throw quickly. If they play zone, he'll carve them up. I think at some point in the game, and it could happen anytime, the Colts are going to score quickly a couple of times and the Jets won't be able to recover. The Jets are not a play-from-behind team. Also, I think the Colts defense is going to be able to pressure Mark Sanchez. Last, the crowd noise is going to be a big factor. The Jets are going to have to rely on hand signals and looking into the ball on offense. I expect a few illegal procedures and false starts, especially from the offensive tackles. I'll take the Colts to win, 28-17.



Vikings (+3.5) at Saints



Dave: Saints - I make a lot of half-brain declarations that I end up paying for down the road but, even with that said, let me take the time out(since we only have two games to cover) to plead with Vikings fans for a minute.



Dear Vikings fans......be prepared. Be prepared for the inevitable Brett Favre Playoff Collapse. Remember how I referenced the '07 NFC Championship earlier? You know how that game ended? With Brett Favre tossing a pick in overtime right in Corey Webster's bread basket. Trust me on this one, as a longtime Packers fan, Brett Favre has tortured more Cheeseheads during the postseason than Dick Cheney tortured Arabs during the Bush Administration. Favre is as much a mortal lock to come undone in the postseason as Scarlett Johanson's top in a romantic comedy. He's better at delivering a stomach punch than Mickey Ward. Maybe it doesn't happen here in New Orleans(Side note: All the Favre-slurping media fools wouldn't stop harping about Favre going back to the Superdome, where he won his first Super Bowl, and the significance of it. Um, why don't you check Favre's career track record in domes before you go thinking "The Riverboat Gambler" is somehow untouchable in Louisiana), but it will happen. Favre will get caught up in the moment and he will do something extremely stupid...and you will see people from all walks of life jump off the Vikings bandwagon like Mark Wahlberg jumped off that cliff to dodge the falling car in The Big Hit. So, please, Vikings fans, as much as I will love watching Prince crumble into a ball of tears like the video for "When Doves Cry", I am giving you fair warning: When it comes to Brett Favre in January, temper your expectations. Remember, if you think the karma gods are out to fuck Indianapolis for warming the bus prematurely in Week 16, don't forget that karma is not too happy with Favre's retirement flip-flop either.



Also, how can anyone in their right mind root against a post-Katrina Saints team playing for a chance for the Super Bowl at home? Saints by 10.

Gabe: Saints - The Saints have too much rolling in their favor for this not to happen. They are going to have even the most casual fans rooting for them because, like Dave said, how can anyone root against them post-Katrina? They are, for as long as they stay alive in these playoffs, America's team. Drew Brees (Drew Breeeeeees!) is playing out of his mind right now, as he has most of the season. The Saints offense is a machine that can't be stopped. Their defense is going to be motivated, especially Darren Sharper, and will be looking to cause havoc on and get turnovers from Old Man Favre and the rest of the Minnesota offense. AP has not been running well and Percy Harvin is hurt and might not play. Also, the crowd noise is going to be a huge factor in this game too. Some of the Viking defenders were actually talking about wearing ear plugs for this game. That is a bad sign. It only take a few offsides penalties to make a defense start playing tentatively. All of that being said, I think Favre wills the Vikings into playing well because that man has been here before. I think the Saints win with a late touchdown, 31-24.

And God, could you imagine the ratings for a Colts-Saints Super Bowl? Even my wife would be interested in that one.