Friday, January 8, 2010

Playoffs? You kiddin' me!?

So the games have been set for football's second season and the one thing that stands out is that there's really no team to beat. A couple of weeks ago, we could have made the case for the Vikings or the Saints or the Colts, but flaws have been exposed since then. This isn't like 2007 where there was the Patriots and then the rest of the field.

So with the field wide open, let's break down the strengths and weaknesses of each contender.


AFC

1. Indianapolis Colts

The Good:


* Two words: Peyton Manning


* Newfound depth in the receiving core thanks to the emergence of rookie wideouts Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon along with the continued excellence of receiver Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark as well as the versatility out of the backfield from RBs Joesph Addai and Donald Brown

*Best pass-rushing duo in the playoffs in bookends Robert Mathis(9.5 sacks) and Dwight Freeney(13.5 sacks).



* The Colts, and Manning especially, have owned the second half of games, coming back from huge deficits against New England and Houston, among others.


The Bad:


* Roster depleted by injuries, especially in the secondary where S Bob Sanders and CB Marlin Jackson are on the IR.


*Running game leaves much to be desired(32nd in the NFL in rushing with 80.9 yards per game).


*Eventually, their fourth quarter fortune will run out as the enhanced competition theoretically won't give up 21 point leads like Houston did and Belichick will probably not go for it on 4th and 2 from his own 29 again to leave the door open for Manning in a 6-point game.



2. San Diego Chargers



The Good:

* QB Phillip Rivers is in MVP form(4, 254 passing yards, 28 TDs and a league-leading 8.8 yards per pass attempt)


* Top three receivers are all tall(Gates, Jackson and Floyd all taller than 6'5) with great leaping ability, making coming down with jump balls for defenders next to impossible.

* Hottest team in the NFL entering the postseason, having won 11 straight including an emotional win against Cincinnati fresh off the death of Chris Henry.


The Bad:

* The defense is a little too "middle of the pack" to be considered Super Bowl worthy, especially against the run. (11th in pass D, 20th in run D).

* Running game only slightly better than Indy's (88.9 yards per game) as L.T. and Darren Sproles have been complete non-factors this season(Neither are in the Top 20 in rushing).

* Like Wade Phillips in Dallas, the pressure to come up big in January is on head coach Norv Turner and the Chargers rode a hot streak into the playoffs last year, only to be eliminated in the Divisional Round by Pittsburgh.


3. New England Patriots


The Good:



* Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Experience matters in the playoffs.


* The offensive line has done a good job of protecting Brady(16 sacks allowed, best of any team in the playoffs), which is huge in Brady's first year back from an ACL injury.

* Solid balance on offense: 3rd in the NFL in passing, 11th in rushing.



The Bad:

* The Wes Welker injury severely hinders the effectiveness of Randy Moss, who has already been accused of dogging it once this year.

* While Brady hasn't went down much, he's been hit a ton and is nursing three broken ribs and a broken finger on top of getting jittery when defenders hover around his legs.

* They lack a dependable rusher. Laurence Maroney has fumbled his way out of New England at the end of the year. Fred Taylor's been injured up until a couple weeks ago. Their best bet is Sammy Morris, who isn't an every down back.


* They're ranked 12th in pass defense and only giving up 209 yards a game through the air but keep in mind they played six games against Miami, N.Y. Jets and Buffalo, who are inept in the passing game. This defense still gives up far too many big plays(which was exposed in the Monday nighter against New Orleans).


4. Cincinnati Bengals



The Good:

* Never underestimate a team playing with a heavy heart like the Bengals are after the deaths of Chris Henry and the wife of defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer during the season.

* Strong, power running game led by Cedric Benson(1,251 yards, best among playoff RBs) and bolstered by rookie Bernard Scott and Kansas City castoff Larry Johnson



* The Bengals are also stout against the run(7th in the NFL in rush defense, allowing just under 100 yards a game) as well as the pass(6th best pass D), and they possess the best cornerback duo nobody's heard of in Jonathan Joesph and Leon Hall(12 INTs combined).



* While not the receiver he once was, Chad Ochocinco is still dangerous as a route runner with solid instincts after the catch.



The Bad:



*In a season where 10 NFL quarterbacks went over the 4,000 yard mark(7 of which are in the playoffs), the Bengals have decided to take the conservative approach with former Pro Bowler and #1 overall pick, QB Carson Palmer(just one 300-yard passing game this season). The grind-it-out style of offense Cincy has played all season will kill them if forced into a shootout with the likes of San Diego or Indy or even New England.



* Loss of LB Rey Maualuga will hurt them deeply, especially in the first round against the run-heavy Jets.

* Speaking of injuries, the pass rush hasn't been the same since losing DE Antwan Odom, who was leading the league in sacks before being sent to the IR.

5. Baltimore Ravens



The Good:



* 2nd best rushing attack of playoff teams(behind league-leading Jets), led by dual-threat RB Ray Rice(8th leading rusher, 19th in receiving with a RB-best 78 catches and 702 receiving yards). Former starter Willis McGahee is also a capable back, especially around the goal line(12 TDs).



*Trademark defense still strong(3rd in points allowed, 8th against the pass, 3rd against the run, 3rd in total yards and tied for 5th in interceptions)



*Dangerous on special teams, thanks to rookie Lardarius Webb. The Ravens are averaging 26.2 yards per kickoff return(2nd best in the NFL)



The Bad:



*The passing game is uninspiring. Second-year QB Joe Flacco has been up and down all season and you wonder if coach John Harbaugh will take the conservative approach this time around. Also, the team doesn't have a dependable receiver beyond veteran Derrick Mason, as Mark Clayton has developed stone hands and Kelley Washington has been inconsistent.



*Eventhough the numbers prove otherwise, you can throw on Baltimore. It's a weakness that will only get exponentially bigger if safety Ed Reed continues to sit on the sidelines. That doesn't bode well for a team having to start at New England and then potentially have to move on to San Diego and Indy. That could be attributed to lack of pass rush. The Ravens notched just 32 sacks this season(2 per game).



*Running the ball and stopping the run have been key factors in a championship team for years. Unfortunately for Baltimore, that trend has become passe and establishing the ground game has trickled down the list of priorities in the new pass-friendly NFL.



6. New York Jets



The Good:



*League's best on the ground, led by Thomas Jones(1,400 yards and 14 TDs) and rookie Shonn Greene(540 yards, 2 TDs. 5 yards per carry)



*League leaders in pass D(153.7 yards allowed per game), total yards(252 yards per game), points allowed(14.8), as well as 8th best against the run(98.6 yards per game). Although take into consideration that two of those games came against the Bills and another two came in the final weeks of the season against Indy and Cincy, who were resting players.



*They have this generation's Deion Sanders in Darrelle Revis, who has 6 picks and has held the league's best receivers to under 35 yards a game including Andre Johnson, Randy Moss(twice), Terrell Owens(twice), Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith, Roddy White and, last but not least, a complete shut out of this week's opponent Chad Ochocinco.



The Bad:



*The passing game is every bit as dreadful as you'd expect it to be when led by a rookie QB. Mark Sanchez has completed just 53% of his passes, thrown 20 INTs(2nd only to Jay Cutler) to just 13 TDs and has a pedestrian QB rating of 63. The Jets as a team are 31st in passing.



*Outside of perhaps Jerricho Cotchery, there isn't a receiver you can rely on. Braylon Edwards never chiseled the cement off his hands after his midseason trade from Cleveland and Brad Smith has been used more recently as a Wildcat QB. Athletic, second year TE Dustin Keller has taken a step back after showing flashes as a rookie, posting a ho-hum 45 catches and 2 touchdowns.

*You'd like to see more of a pass rush out of Rex Ryan-coached team especially since a. smacking the QB in the mouth was one of the calling cards for the Ravens defenses under Ryan in years past, b. they have guys like Vernon Gholston and Calvin Pace who were born to wreak havoc on quarterbacks, and c. with the exception of Cincinnati, they'll be facing a plethora of pass-first teams in the playoffs. The X-factor for Gang Green, perhaps even more so than the development of Sanchez, will be whether Gholston steps it up after two subpar seasons after being selected with the 6th overall pick.

NFC

1. New Orleans Saints

The Good:

* Drew Breeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees....and the #1 pass offense in the NFL.

* They have the NFL equivalent of the Phoenix Suns on offense: a deep cast of speedy weapons at Brees' disposal that, along with the brilliant offensive mind of Sean Payton, are built to turn games into track meets and intimidate both the opposing defense and bully the opposing offense into a shootout, which is why they are the top scoring team in the NFL.

* Safety Darren Sharper looked like a legit Defensive Player of the Year candidate during the first half of the season before being slowed by injuries. Still, he's a cagey veteran who makes a living patrolling the middle of the deep part of the field waiting to pounce on any mistakes. His ability to roam the field is a huge asset to a Saints' pass D that has lost a lot of talent in the secondary.

The Bad:

*Like many teams that seem to be more pass-oriented, the Saints rushing attack is, to put it nicely, lacking. Pierre Thomas has been good in spurts, but hasn't been able to get into rhythm because of his splitting carries with journeyman Mike Bell. Reggie Bush has been one of the biggest busts of the past decade: Always injured and rarely effective.

*What looked like a completely turned around defense under coordinator Gregg Williams has slipped back into being another lackluster unit. The Saints are 20th in points allowed, 25th in total yards allowed, 26th against the pass and 21st against the run. The front seven has been decimated by injuries to guys like DT Sedrick Ellis and DE Charles Grant(who will miss the entire playoffs with a triceps injury), as well as the aforementioned holes in the secondary left by the injuries of corners like Tracy Porter.

*Even with the extra week to collect their thoughts and prepare, you have to wonder about the psyche of a team that backed into the playoffs, having lost three straight(two of which at home, and one of those was to the lowly Bucs) and have week after week, watched the defense fall apart and a once-explosive offense averaging just 18 points a game in that three-game losing stretch.

2. Minnesota Vikings

The Good:

*Arguably, the best running back in the league in Adrian Peterson(1,383 yards, 18 TDs), running behind a humongous offensive line, particularly on the left side with Pro Bowlers Bryant McKenzie and Steve Hutchinson.

*The continued awe-inspiring play of Brett Favre and the effect he has had over his young core of weapons. Without question, Favre's presence has led to the breakout seasons of wideout Sidney Rice and tight end Visanthe Shiancoe.

*The defense gets to the passer, thanks to "The Rhinestone Cowboy", Jared Allen(14.5 sacks of the team's league-leading 48 sacks). They also are airtight against the run, thanks to the beefy Williams Wall on the interior of the defensive line. LB Chad Greenway has quietly emerged as one of the 4 or 5 best OLBs in the game as well(99 tackles, 3 INTs)

*The explosiveness of Offensive Rookie of the Year Percy Harvin, who can take over a game on kickoff returns(27.5 yards per return, 2 TDs) or receiving(60 catches, 790 yards, 6 TDs). Speed kills and with the combination of Harvin, Rice, Bernard Berrian and Peterson, the Vikings have a lot of it.

The Bad:

*Just for kicks, Google "Brett Favre's playoff history", where you'll find doozies like his 6-INT performance against the Rams, his game-killing interceptions against Philly('04) and the Giants('07) among many other postseason debacles. Needless to say, Number Four tends to struggle in the postseason.

*For as good a pass rush as the team has, the Vikings are still 19th against stopping the air attack. That's not a good look for a team potentially looking at Dallas, Arizona or Green Bay in their postseason debut.

*Adrian Peterson's chronic case of fumblitis. Since 2007, Peterson has lost 13 fumbles(including 6 this season), which is more than than any non-quarterback during that span(and nobody else has more than 9). Peterson's butterhands combined with Favre's spotty accuracy......not a good combination for a team that needs to win the turnover battle to succeed.

*Eventhough he made the Pro Bowl, it's become obvious the play of left tackle Bryant McKinnie has declined considerably, which is not good news for a team with a QB who likes to force throws under pressure. In fact, the offensive line as a whole has slipped quite a bit in protecting Favre, which was made more evident in losses to Arizona, Carolina and Chicago.

3. Dallas Cowboys

The Good:

*Tony Romo looks to be finally settled in his role as one of the NFL's elite QBs, throwing for 300 yards in each of the Cowboys' December games and playing mistake-free football during their surprising winter hot streak. Cowboys are 6th in the NFL in passing.

*Miles Austin has emerged as the big play threat that Roy Williams was supposed to be and his track star speed overmatches #2 corners when the Cowboys go deep. That's opened things up for Pro Bowl tight end Jason Witten(94 catches for 1,130 yards and 2 scores) as well as for fellow wideout Patrick Crayton and even Williams himself(when he catches the ball, that is.)

* Three-pronged rushing attack with the bruising Marion Barber, the lightning quick Felix Jones and the well-balanced Tashard Choice, which keeps opposing defenses guessing.

* LBs Anthony Spencer and DeMarcus Ware are like Mathis/Freeney East. They combine for 17 of the team's 42 sacks and are the main reason behind Dallas' 7th ranked pass D. Also helping the Cowboys' cause is the emergence of second-year corner Mike Jenkins and the dominance inside by Pro Bowl nose tackle Jay Ratliff.

The Bad:

*It wouldn't be a Cowboys playoff preview without mentioning that the Cowboys haven't won a playoff game since the mid-90's and that this is the 10-year anniversary of "The Music City Miracle", where the Titans beat the Bills on a fluky, last-second kickoff return that will go down as one of the greatest plays in NFL history. Who was coaching the Bills that day? Yup, Wade Phillips. I'm not sayin', but I'm just sayin'.

*The team commits way too many dumb penalties, especially on the offensive line where LT Flozell Adams is a holding call waiting to happen. Perhaps the biggest factor for Dallas(and Green Bay, as well, who make the Cowboys look disciplined) will be the referees and their willingness to let things slide throughout the playoffs. If the refs take over the game, it's going to be another long offseason in Texas.

*Roy Williams' stone hands. Why teams haven't decided to double Miles Austin yet and force Williams, who has no chemistry with Romo on top of having Roberto Duran's mitts, to beat them is beyond me. Not only is Williams a cancer to his team because of his bad case of the dropsies, but his constant whining and complaining both on the field and in the media is a constant trouble to the team's cohesiveness.

4. Arizona Cardinals

The Good:

*The most explosive offensive attack on the West Coast(Yes, even more so than San Diego), led by QB Kurt Warner and WRs Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston.

*Underrated pass-rush that has guys coming from all angles. The Cardinals are 6th in sacks, but don't have a player with more than 7(Linemen Calais Campbell and Darnell Dockett are tied with 7, and Bertrand Berry is right behind them with 6).

*Rookie RB Chris "Beanie" Wells has come on down the stretch as the viable running option the team hoped for when it took him with the 2nd to last pick in the first round. Wells finished the season with 790 yards and 7 TDs after spending most of the season in a time-share with fellow youngster, Tim Hightower(598 yards, 8 TDs)

The Bad:

*Injuries hit this team at the wrong time. The aforementioned Campbell fractured his thumb in their throwaway loss to Green Bay last week and might not play. Boldin, who has been banged up all season, was also hurt in the Packers game and, even if he does go, will clearly be hindered by constant leg problems. Top corner Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie also suffered a leg injury, but will play, but obviously will be hampered. The most important injury comes to left tackle Mike Gandy, leaving Jeremy Bridges to cover the immobile Warner's blind side.

*Inconsistancy has killed this team, particularly when it gets careless with the football. Warner is 5-INT threat any week, especially if the team is forced into a shootout. Wells and Hightower have had trouble hanging on to the football. With Warner's left side not as secure(as well as the fact that he's not the most durable of QBs AND is backed by first round bust Matt Leinart), any team bringing constant pressure will spell doom for the Cardinals' chances of making a run in the postseason.

*They also aren't the most stout team defensively. Once the top rated run defense, the Cardinals have slipped down the stretch to 17th in that category as well as 23rd against the pass(not the most reassuring of stats when facing a balanced Packers' attack). If Rodgers-Cromartie sits, replacement Mike Adams proved he wasn't a suitable Plan B in getting exposed by Greg Jennings last week. The key to this Cards' D will be safety Adrian Wilson, whom the team uses both in coverage and as a force in the box.

5. Green Bay Packers

The Good:

*First team in NFL history with a 4,000 yard passer(Aaron Rodgers), 1,200 yard rusher(Ryan Grant) and two 1,000 yard receivers(Donald Driver and Greg Jennings). In other words, the Packers are as balanced on offense as they've been in a long time.

*After a dreadful 2008 campaign, the Packers D has rebounded to become one of the league's top units. Green Bay is 2nd in total yards allowed, 7th in points allowed, 5th in pass D and 1st in run defense. The unit is led by potential Defensive Player of the Year, CB Charles Woodson, who has been Mr. Everything both in pass coverage(league-tying 9 interceptions, as well as 3 house calls) as well as in the open field(74 tackles, 2 sacks and 4 forced fumbles). A couple other unsung heroes on this defense are rookie Clay Matthews Jr(10 sacks), DE Johnny Jolly(franchise record for passes defensed by a D-Lineman with 7) and safety Nick Collins(6 INTs)

*The emergence of Rodgers from solid QB on a losing team to one of the game's elite as been particularly important, especially over the last half of the season where Rodgers(who was sacked 43 times in his first 8 games) has only been sacked 7 times in the last 8. On top of his 30 TD passes, Rodgers has been nimble on his feet with 5 TDs on the ground and 518 yards rushing.

The Bad:

*Again, like the Cowboys, the referees are going to play a huge role in the Packers' success throughout the postseason. As the league's most penalized team, how much contact the refs will allow guys like Woodson and fellow corner Tramon Williams to have with receivers will go a long way in determining how stout the Packers will be defensively. On the other side of the ball, the Packers have been prone to costly holding calls so it will depend on what they can get away with and what they can't.

*As good as the Packers' O-Line has been in the second half, they still lead the league in sacks allowed with an astonishing 50. Allowing Rodgers to have time in the pocket to spread the ball around to guys like Jennings and Driver and TE Jermichael Finley will be paramount if the Packers are going to put points on the board. The Packers' O-Line will get tested early, with Arizona up first(6th in sacks) then a potential rematch with the Vikings(1st sacks) or possible showdowns with Philly(3rd) or Dallas(7th).

*Having a great regular season is fine and good, but legends are made in the postseason. All eyes will be on Rodgers and how he performs in his playoff debut, especially since he'll be doing it with his former mentor Brett Favre also in the tournament. If Rodgers-Favre I set MNF records and Rodgers-Favre II in Lambeau blew the doors off Sunday afternoon ratings, Rodgers-Favre III in the playoffs will be the most anticipated game in a long time. These next few weeks are where Rodgers proves he's one of the best or just a great regular season QB.

6. Philadelphia Eagles

The Good:

*The electrifying play of second-year wideout DeSean Jackson, who has been dangerous in the passing game(63 catches, 1,167 yards and 9 TDs), the running game(67-yard TD run early in the season) and the return game(7 of his 15 punt returns went for 20 yards or more and two have went to the house). After being shut down mostly in Week 17, he's going to need to put on a show if the Eagles want to avoid losing three straight to Dallas.

*On paper, the Eagles D was supposed to be one of the best and it has somewhat lived up to its billing. DE Trent Cole finished the season with 12.5 sacks and fellow ends Darren Howard(6.5 sacks) and Juqua Parker(8 sacks) chipped in as well. CB Asante Samuel tied for the NFL lead in interceptions with 9 and Sheldon Brown had 5 playing opposite Samuel. The postseason is where Samuel is particularly dangerous, having nabbed 7 interceptions(4 of which returned for TDs) in the playoffs.

*Like the Saints and Vikings, the Eagles' offense is predicated on speed. Besides Jackson, there's rookie Jeremy Maclin, vet Kevin Curtis and versatile running backs Brian Westbrook and rookie LeSean McCoy. When QB Donovan McNabb is in sync, the Eagles run a fast break offense on par with any team in the league.

The Bad:

*Even in a passing league, you have to run the ball to keep defenses honest. In their shutout loss to Dallas that cost them the NFC East title, the Eagles ran the ball 10 times. If the Eagles plan on slowing down Dallas or any team in the playoffs, they have to extend drives and chew up clock with the running game to tire out defenses.

*The loss of center Jamaal Jackson was never felt more deeply than when overmatched replacement Nick Cole was abused by Cowboys DT Jay Ratliff last week. The Eagles' offensive line was supposed to be much-improved with the additions of Stacy Andrews and Jason Peters. However, Peters was a very sketchy Pro Bowl choice because he's been beat quite a bit this season. Andrews(as well as his brother, Shawn, who plays right guard) has been hurt and replaced by inconsistant Winston Justice and the result has been McNabb falling under constant pressure and the running game being ineffective.

*Andy Reid's coaching is always a wild-card, especially in big games. He wastes timeouts on silly challenges. He routinely botches short yardage situations and he's a poor clock manager. Reid's best moments seem to come when there's the least amount of pressure on his team to succeed(i.e. last year's playoffs), but his ineptitude is something that no longer go unnoticed.

The I Don't Know

* QB Donovan McNabb could fall into either the Good or Bad catagories, depending on which McNabb shows up. If the Eagles get the McNabb that struggles with hitting receivers in stride and gets rushed into bad throws and bad decisions much like the Baltimore game last year that saw him benched at halftime for the first time in his career, then we'll be seeing a repeat of last week's drubbing in Dallas. If McNabb plays like the guy after the Ravens game who was motivated and in rhythm, then the Eagles will be a tough out for any team in the playoffs. Perhaps the biggest plus for McNabb in these playoffs is not having to play in front of a ravenous Philadelphia crowd where McNabb will be overwhelmed by the pressure to succeed.

No comments:

Post a Comment