Saturday, January 9, 2010

Wild-Card Playoff Picks...and a Little Housekeeping

Before we get to picking this weekend's NFL playoff games, let's wrap up our picks for the regular season.

In Week 17 we posted identical records, so obviously, Dave did not make up the 14 games he was behind, and Gabe has won the 2009 Boom Roasted Sports season long series. For that Gabe wins no prize other than being able to end every argument with "Oh yeah? Well I can pick NFL games against the spread better than you."

Here are the numbers:

Last Week:
Gabe: 8-6-2
Dave: 8-6-2
(The Houston-New England and Washington-San Diego games were both a push.)

Season:
Gabe: 136-113-5
Dave: 122-127-5

Let us march on to the playoffs!.....

Dave is out making his legal money right now, so his picks will be without explanation until further notice.

New York Jets (+2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Gabe: New York Jets - The NFL is kicking off the playoffs with what I think will be a great game. In what will become a common theme to my picks this week....don't look too closely at last week's game. Last week the Jets smoked the Bengals. This week won't be as close. I think Darrelle Revis will take Chad Ochocinco completely out of the game again, which means the Bengals will have to rely on Laveraneus Coles and Andre Caldwell to catch the ball. Cedric Benson will be playing this time around, but the Jets defense will be able to focus on him. I think Mark Sanchez will do just enough for the Jets to win by a late field goal.

Dave: Jets- I struggled with this one the most. The Bengals, much like Steelers LB LaMarr Woodley predicted, laid down for the Jets last week so you have to take that debacle with an Andre Smith-sized grain of salt. That being said, it's hard to root for a team that puts handcuffs on its Pro Bowl QB and Pro Bowl WR and restricts itself into being a ball-control, grind-out-the-clock running team. You don't just waste a combo like Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco by treating Palmer like he's Spergeon Wynn. Now, the protect-the-football-by-running-it-down-their-throats-and-not-letting-our-QB-fuck-things-up strategy works for the Jets because a. they have two fine RBs in Shonn Greene and Thomas Jones(whereas Cincy just has Cedric Benson) and b. Mark Sanchez is a rookie QB with 20 INTs to his name. Again, tough call here because we don't know what Bengals team shows up, but at gun point, I'd take Revis to shut down Ocho Cinco once again and Gang Green wins on the road.

Philadelphia Eagles (+4) at Dallas Cowboys

Gabe: Dallas - The big factor in this game to me is travel. The Eagles were in Dallas on Sunday, went back to Philly, and have to travel back to Dallas for the game on Saturday. Here is another thing....the Cowboys have shut down DeSean Jackson better than any team this year. He is averaging 11 yards-per-touch against the Cowboys, 17 ypc against everyone else. He has also had only two plays of twenty yards or more against the Cowboys. Needless to say, Dallas has his number. Dallas is playing too well right now. They have shed all of their December demons. I think they win by 10.

Dave: Cowboys - Yes, I know the Cowboys haven't won a playoff game since '96. Yes, Wade Phillips hasn't been the same since "The Music City Miracle". Yes, it's hard to beat a team like Philadelphia three straight times. However, there is a perfectly reasonable explanation for my pick of Dallas...........I'm shooting for the reverse jinx. Much like picking against Green Bay has helped by Packers win, I'm hoping that my lousy picking down the stretch will somehow curse the Cowboys. Shit, I'm even willing to hire Fan Man to drop down from the rafters whenever Dallas is in the red zone. Look, we all know Philly plays its best when nothing is expected of them. They're as reliable under pressure as 100-year old pipes, but the Cowboys are the heavyweight champs of shitting the bed when it matters most and the worst thing that could have happened to Dallas is fans and media finally believing there's hope for them this year. So I'm rooting for Philly here, but as a safeguard, I'll say Cowboys by 10.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) at New England Patriots

Gabe: New England - Tom Brady is playing skittish and hurt. The Pats are missing Wes Welker, although that Edelman kid has filled in nicely. The Ravens are dealing with their own injury problems. Rookie defensive back LaDarius Webb is out and that is having a bigger impact that people imagined. I'll give the edge to New England because they are at home. Foxborough is a hostile environment for opposing teams. Pats by 4.

Dave: Ravens- Last time these two met, the Ravens came within a Mark Clayton drop on 4th down on the final drive of upending New England. Now, Brady is a bit more beat up(despite what Ray Lewis believes) and the Pats have lost their most reliable receiver in Wes Welker. Plus, if the weather gets as cold as it should get in New England in January, that means the Pats will have to go to the run. You know who gets bored when the Pats run more than they pass to start the game? That's right: Randy Moss. If a steady dose of Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris won't do the trick to uninspire Moss, then the triple coverage the Ravens will put on him certainly will. Meanwhile, inclement weather suits the Ravens just fine, who won't let the game rely on Clayton's stone hands again and will instead stick to running it with Ray Rice and Willis McGahee and dumpoffs to Todd Heap and Derrick Mason. Ravens pull off the upset here, win by 3.

Green Bay Packers (pk) at Arizona Cardinals

Gabe: Green Bay - Arizona is hurt and very inconsistent. Green Bay had a better record during the regular season. Aaron Rodger is playing out of his mind and the Green Bay defense is playing great. Packers by 7.

Dave: Cardinals (Gabe's note: I think this is because every time Dave picks against his beloved Packers...they win.) 17 weeks of doing picks together will help any person figure out the strategies of their counterpart. So, yes, Gabe is 100% correct in suggesting that this Cards pick is another attempt at keeping a good thing going. Like with Cincy, it's hard to gauge last week's ass-whooping the Pack gave Arizona because Arizona gave up after the second drive. Still, they'll likely go without Anquan Boldin and have two big ifs on defense in leading-sacker Calias Campbell and leading interceptor Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. So, naturally, I like my boys to take care of business, but as the old cliche goes, if something works, keep doing it until it stops working.

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