Doomed

If the Dwight Howard-Orlando Magic saga has a familiar ring to it, it's because we've seen this movie before. In fact, we were in this exact situation a year ago with a young superstar whose contract was up at the end of the season who had dreams of greener pastures elsewhere, but was held captive longer than need-be because his current team wasn't sure how to handle the situation. For the first half of the 2011 NBA season, the Denver Nuggets suffered through the "Melo-drama" of Carmelo Anthony's murky future in the Rockies.

It wasn't until February 21, 2011 that things finally found a resolution. That was the day Denver agreed to give 'Melo his wish and trade him to the New York Knicks in one of the rare panic trades that worked out for both sides. The Nuggets got a future star in Danilo Gallinari as well as some much-needed cap relief(which allowed them to retain Nene this past offseason), while the Knicks got the second coming of Bernard King as their new franchise poster child.

You would think, after years of being around the game, front office suits like Magic GM Otis Smith would understand that, when a player wants out, you get him out. The Hornets understood that concept prior to the start of this season, which is why they worked steadfast in moving an unhappy Chris Paul to the Clippers. Hell, the Hornets worked so hard on granting Paul his wish, they actually managed to work two trades out in the short time span between the end of the lockout and the opening tip on Christmas: a very good trade with the Lakers that was unjustifiably shut down by the league office and the equally good deal with the Clippers that David Stern inevitably signed off on. The Magic, however, either due to ignorance and incompetence or because the right deal hasn't presented itself haven't been as fortunate as New Orleans. The result, as with Denver prior to the Anthony trade, has been a predictable one so far. The Magic are 12-8, good for 6th in a weak Eastern conference, and are in the midst of a three-game losing streak that includes blowing a 27-point lead in a loss to Boston(who had beat Orlando by 31 points three nights prior, mind you), a 26-point loss to an Eric Gordon-less Hornets team and last night's 21-point drubbing at the hands of the Indiana Pacers.

Following the beatdown by the Hornets, Howard let his frustration out publicly, questioning the desire of his fellow teammates. As justified as Howard's anger was, what can you really expect from a team faced with constant question about it's biggest star's future. How can you expect your cohorts to give their all when you are making plans for your own departure behind closed doors? You can't denounce your supporting cast when you've spent the last two months telling the world you'd rather be somewhere else because these guys aren't doing it for me. I'll give Howard some credit for not going the LeBron route and duping fans into thinking he's staying while internally knowing he was leaving at the end of the season and it's not like Howard hasn't given Orlando everything it needs to make a deal. That's where the blame falls upon Otis Smith and company. You have Dwight's wish list of teams he wants to play for in your hands. What's the holdup? I get it. You don't want to deal Howard before the All-Star Game in Orlando and have him come back to town in another team's uniform. That's understandable....to an extent. For one, at the end of the day, you're still trading the best center in the league and a 26-year old franchise cornerstone that was supposed to make Magic fans forget about losing Shaq 16 years ago. Whether you deal him now or in three weeks, you'll still be remembered as "the front office that had to trade Superman because they couldn't build a team around him". It will be awhile before those wounds heal in Orlando and, while Howard coming to Orlando for the All-Star Game as a Net or Laker or Maverick certainly rubs salt in those wounds, the damage is done either way. Secondly, with Howard already pissed over his team's play, this situation is only going to get uglier and, as we've seen with front offices faced with ugly public situations(read: The Lakers and Lamar Odom a month ago), that only increases the chances of a trade being rushed together and the Magic getting less than fair value for the best defensive big man in the game.

According to ESPN's Ric Bucher, the New Jersey/Brooklyn Nets are the frontrunners to land Howard once fellow young center Brook Lopez returns from a broken foot. If that's really true, then I shake my head. Don't get me wrong. If Howard's arrival to the Nets convinced Deron Williams to stay in NJ/Brooklyn, then it's worth the price. But look at things from Orlando's side. You're trading a 26-year old perennial MVP candidate for a guy coming off a broken foot whom the team clearly didn't think was going to develop that much because they are waiting for him to get healthy so they can deal him rather than build around him. Rookie guard Marshon Brooks, a dark horse for the Rookie of the Year this year and someone the Nets will almost certainly include in a deal for Doomsday, just broke his toe and will be sidelined as well. So, the Magic will be acquiring two broken parts as the centerpiece in a deal that would send a man who's never had a serious injury in his career out of town. Does the mind not rebel at any point when reading that last paragraph?

The other teams on Howard's wish list would seem to be better options for Orlando solely because they are all in another conference(except for Dwight's newest addition to the list, Chicago, whom the Magic can't compete with now even with Howard on the roster): Both Los Angeles teams(Lakers and Clippers, incase you're slow) and the Dallas Mavericks. A Chris Paul-Dwight Howard tag team would be fun to watch but it would almost certianly come at the expense of current Lob City partner Blake Griffin. The Clippers already shot all their ammo in the deal to bring CP3 to the Left Coast, the only other pieces they have to move are Griffin(quickly emerging into one of the game's best inside presences) and DeAndre Jordan(who can't be traded until March 1, assuming they get DeAndre's consent in the first place, per league rules). Jordan is 23 and Griffin is 22. Obviously, a haul like that trumps anything any of the other potential suitors can offer but how does that make sense for the Clippers? Jordan's becoming a rising star as a shotblocker and Griffin is already one of the three or four best power forwards in the game and an absolute double-double machine(currently averaging 21 and 11 midway into just his second season). On top of that, you're getting Griffin at a discount as he's still signed to his rookie deal. What does Howard bring to the table that Jordan and Griffin aren't already bringing combined at three and fours years younger, respectively?

How about Dallas? Who do the Mavericks have that the Magic could take back and build around? Roddy Beaubois? Dominique Jones? You're not getting Dirk. Hell, you probably won't get nothing beyond a Shawn Marion/Vince Carter/Brendan Haywood poo-poo platter. How enticing does that sound, Magic fans?

Now, the Bulls are very intriguing. The Bulls have a lot of young guys like Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, Taj Gibson, Jimmy Butler, Omar Asik, etc. The problem with that is, if Chicago was unwilling to agree to a trade centered around Noah a year ago for Anthony, why would they make that deal now for Howard? As with the Clippers and Griffin/Jordan, what can Howard do that the duo of Noah and Carlos Boozer can't? Is it an upgrade? Sure, but not a huge one and certainly not worth trading so many pieces of a good, young core.

That leaves only the Lakers left. I did some tinkering around and came up with a trade that makes sense for everyone(Disclaimer: I'm almost 100% sure the trade I'm about to propose has been pitched on another website by another writer in some variance. There's a million blogs out there. Eventually, we're going to write the same sentence. Though, the fact that this trade might have appeared in another place earlier in time makes it even more foolish on the Magic's part for it not getting done). The main concept behind a Lakers trade for Howard is pretty much rehashing the failed three-way trade the Lakers had in place with Houston and New Orleans for Chris Paul, except with Howard replacing Paul and Andrew Bynum replacing the now-departed Lamar Odom with a few spare parts I threw in just for one. Now, I'm sure some salary number-cruncher is going to look this over and say "That can't work". Fine. You want to pick nits, have at it.

The Trade: Lakers acquire center Dwight Howard as well as point guard Jonny Flynn from Houston, Houston sends forward Luis Scola to L.A. while also sending center Hasheem Thabeet and guard Kevin Martin to Orlando. The Magic also acquire Andrew Bynum from the Lakers, who would send Pau Gasol to Houston. The Magic would also send Hedo Turkoglu's disgustingly bad contract to Houston, along with guard J.J. Redick.

Again, you can mix and match however you like and change the spare parts if you feel the need but the biggest components of the deal(Howard, Bynum, Martin, Gasol, Scola) are what's important.

Why This Trade Works For The Lakers: You can make the same case for Bynum/Gasol that you could for Griffin/Jordan and Noah/Boozer with the exception of a couple key points. One, even the most jaded Lakers fan couldn't tell you with a straight face they aren't worried about Bynum's knees. He's a slightly more durable Greg Oden. Yes, Bynum's a couple years younger than Howard. Yes, going from Gasol to Scola is a bit of a downgrade but Scola and Howard bring to the table what Gasol and Bynum don't: durability, physicality and toughness(And, if you want to counter this argument with "Well, Bynum showed his toughness by getting physical with J.J. Barea in last year's playoffs", first you should punch yourself in the nuts and then I would counter with Bynum's clothesline on Barea is actually the antithesis of tough. It was a bitch move. It was an immature 7-footer unable to handle the piping hot plate of ass-whooping his team was being dealt and taking his frustrations out on someone half his size. My wife is taller than J.J. Barea. Tyson-Givens was more a fight than Bynum-Barea. Knock it off). Scola might not possess the rebounding numbers that Gasol has but Bynum doesn't possess the rebounding numbers that Howard has, so it draws even. Scola is also a banger inside, something Gasol(despite his gaudy rebounding numbers) is not.

The biggest plus for giving up on Bynum and Gasol here is that Howard puts asses in seats. Are you buying Lakers tickets to see Andrew Bynum? Would you call Pau Gasol "must see TV"? Of course not. Howard has the look, the smile, the personality and the resume to pick up right where Shaq left off when "The Diesel" left Hollywood and Howard's humble enough to not get into a pissing contest with Kobe over whose team it is. Furthermore, the Lakers would also get a young point man in Flynn, who might be a bust as a lottery pick but has to be an upgrade over Derek Fisher's rotting corpse and Steve Blake almost by default.

Why The Trade Works For Houston: Kevin Martin is no more capable of being a star than Turkoglu or Redick are. He's a fine shooter with an ugly form who knows how to put up numbers on bad teams. He's a guard version of Chris Bosh. Houston's success throughout its history has been predicated on having a good big man. It was the case during the Ralph Sampson era then when Hakeem Olajuwon came to town and most recently with the drafting of Yao Ming in 2002. The Rockets have made it no secret they have a hard-on for Pau and, while Gasol might not like it in Houston, going to the Rockets allows Gasol to get the respect and attention he's not getting playing second fiddle to Kobe in Laker Land. It seems like Houston is giving up a lot but keep in mind that the team probably wasn't going to keep Flynn and Thabeet(both horrendous draft busts with other teams) after this season and Martin has never and will never be the star that Gasol was or is. By moving Martin and replacing him with Redick, J.J. gets to finally crack a starting lineup and fulfill his calling as this generation's Mark Price(except slightly taller and a bit drunker). Redick has come along as the Magic's chief shooter off the bench but major minutes were always going to be tough sitting behind the Vince Carters and Jason Richardsons of the world. The Turkoglu contract is a bit steep but it's a fair price to pay when you consider what the other two teams are giving up.

Why It Works For The Magic: First and foremost, it finally ends the round-the-clock speculation and questioning over Howard's future. There's no perfect way to replace a franchise big man. It took Orlando a decade to replace Shaq. By bringing in Bynum(and even Thabeet) and putting them under the tutelage of assistant coach and future Hall of Fame center Patrick Ewing, the Magic might end up doing alright here. With Howard now officially gone, the team can focus on re-signing forward Ryan Anderson, who's having a career season in his contract year(always a red flag, but whatever) and the Magic could still contend with a Bynum-Anderson-Richardson-Martin-Nelson, especially with the Howard headache out of the way. If Ewing can salvage Thabeet and turn him into even something slightly resembling the "next Dikembe Mutombo" billing he had coming out of college, then he's worth the risk. If not, he's a free agent at the end of the year anyway. Obviously, the hope for Orlando is that Bynum's knees stay in tact. If he continues to break down, then it's back to the drawing board. Still, at least you got something in return.

Look, it's not a perfect deal but it's an idea. Sure, there's going to be reluctance by the Magic to see their poster child center in the purple and gold yet again but that's the breaks. Much like the Cavs with LeBron, the team had years to build a winner around their young cornerstone and failed thanks to bad trades and foolish signings. Much like the Cavs and LeBron, the team thought that an NBA Finals appearance, albeit an unsuccessful one, would give their franchise player a sign of what might come and convince him to stick around. Much like the Cavs and LeBron, that theory was flawed and they'll watch said franchise player exit stage left. There are plenty of precedents here for the Magic to learn from and not follow suit. The Hornets went about this same issue the right way. The Nuggets did not but eventually recovered. The Cavs couldn't have handled it any worse(though, could you imagine the riots in Cleveland had the Cavs actually traded LeBron prior to "The Decision"). Basketball isn't rocket science, despite all the fancy numbers and the hiring of big brains like Rockets GM Daryl Morey. Sometimes, to build a winner, all you need is luck, timing and some common sense.

The writing is on the wall for the Orlando Magic. It's not written in invisible ink. Dwight Howard has to go. Dwight Howard wants to go.

No good comes from delaying the inevitable. Just ask Nuggets fans before February 21, 2011.

Knowing When To Walk Away

The history of sports is littered with stories of athletes who hung around the game too long. Tales of guys who tried to squeeze that last ounce out of their career running off sheer bravado and ignorance. Tragedies of once-great icons who sacrificed a life after to put thirty more seconds on that fifteen minutes of fame.

If Peyton Manning is the cerebral assassin that many have given him credit for being, he won't become of those stories. Instead of contemplating signing with the Jets, Dolphins or Redskins, Manning should instead consider spending his 2012 and beyond taking a job with either FOX, NBC or CBS. Peyton Manning will be 36 in two months. He's coming off a season where he played less snaps than Jake Delhomme, who was signed off the street in the last month of the season. He's had three neck surgeries in two years and he finds himself on the active roster(for now) of a Indianapolis Colts that is, to say the least, in a state of rebuilding. Manning has made enough money in his fourteen years in the NFL and from endorsements that he could swim in cash like Scrooge McDuck.

If Peyton Manning continues on with his football career, it will be more of a matter of pride and foolishness than a sign of a man with something to prove. With a Super Bowl ring, four MVPs, eleven Pro Bowl appearances and more records than a hoarder's basement, Manning has nothing left to show us to convince he's one of the greatest signal callers to ever throw on a pair of cleats. Manning spent an entire year listening and watching. He listened to talk of Andrew Luck coming to town as his heir apparent and he watched his team come within a spirited December performance away from going 0-16. What Manning should be listening to now is the advice of his doctors who, if they are smart, will tell him that the violent game of football is too dangerous for a man on the wrong side of thirty with more swelling in his neck than Tony Siragusa. What Manning should have been watching all year is the number of quarterbacks who were ushered off the field from hits from defenders whose sole purpose is to lay them out. Manning should have watched last week's NFC Championship game and saw the punishment his little brother Eli took from the San Francisco 49ers and then realized that maybe life in the NFL isn't for him anymore.

Or perhaps Manning, a infamous student of the game, should have done a little more homework and studied some guys within and outside of his sport. Perhaps Manning should have taken a long look at the final years of fellow future Hall of Fame QB Brett Favre, who overstayed his welcome by about two years and put the finishing touches on his career in the most painful and embarrassing of circumstances. Maybe Manning should take a peak at Muhammad Ali these days, who is a shell of the man once known as "The Greatest" because he fought much longer than he had to because pride and greed told him he should. How about taking a gander at the greatest athlete of our generation, Michael Jordan, and checking out those final two years in Washington when he needed ice packs the size of Horace Grant to quell the swelling in his aching knees. Is that how Peyton wants to write his final chapter, broken and downtrodden? Is the thrill of another attempt at being great worth the potential danger to his future health that comes with it? What's left for him to prove? Where can he really go and still compete?

At this point, the question Peyton must ask is why would he continue to play? If it's for a ring, where can he possibly go for one last chance at the Lombardi? Every contender these days is set at QB and the ones that aren't(Jets, Dolphins, Chiefs) are far too dysfunctional for even a healthy Manning to fix. The QB climate isn't what it was a few years ago when a team like the New York Jets took a chance on an aging-but-still-motivated Brett Favre hoping he was the missing piece to nab the Super Bowl trophy that has eluded them since the Joe Namath days. And even if it is, we saw how that worked out for Favre and Gang Green. The window of opportunity for Manning has shut. It shut quickly and tragically but the hope is that the crash of that window closing was loud enough for Manning to fight off all those voices in his head that his machismo is producing that is telling him he still has more left in the tank and walk away from the game while he's still fully able to.

The choice is up to Manning these next few months. He can ride off into the sunset as one of the greatest to ever play the game, enjoy his natural calling as a TV analyst and collect fat checks from endorsers who can't resist his charm in their commercials or he can bang around the game for a few more years and become another cautionary tale. The hardest part of any athlete's career isn't the physical punishment he takes or memorizing a playbook or dealing with the fans and the media, it's knowing the right time to hang 'em up and it's a lesson that most learn the hard way.

Hopefully, Peyton Manning isn't like most.

He IS Penn State

The grandest tragedy is not that the world lost Joe Paterno today. The tragedy was the fundamental dismemberment of the man's legacy that took place in the months following the reveal of the Jerry Sandusky scandal to the eventual upheaval of JoePa at Happy Valley.

In a what-have-you-done-lately world, Paterno keeping quiet while one of his coaches was doing unspeakable things to some of the nation's youth somehow erased 46 years of history where Paterno stood as the face of Linebacker U and the last remaining relic of a golden era of college football. I understand it's a tough line to toe with this whole Sandusky/Paterno fiasco. If you side with JoePa, people tend to believe you support him not blowing the whistle on child molestation that was happening on his grounds. If you side with the university, you are taking a stand against the man who made it every bit as great as it is today. You are more just in opposing God at Penn State than opposing Joe Paterno. That, to me, should speak volumes for the man's legacy. Instead, no story on the life of college football's last great head coach will be complete without mentioning Jerry Sandusky or what may or may not have happened in that shower room or Paterno being unceremoniously dumped not too long after in the midst of a season where JoePa, at 85, was close to notching the Nittany Lions another Big Ten title(or Big 12, however you want to call it). We can debate for days whether Paterno deserved to go after upholding the code of silence over Sandusky's transgressions. That's not the issue at hand.

The issue is something that Darren Rovell tweeted while Paterno's life was in limbo last night: "From what we know, Joe Paterno lived 99.999% of his adult life as a noble man. Some will remember the .01%". That's why, as morbid as it sounds, death might have been the best thing to happen to Joe Paterno. He didn't need to listen to more amateurs taking pot shots at him. He didn't need to sit back while this Sandusky drama continues to unfold and more details are set to emerge. He didn't need to watch Penn State football go on without him. It's fitting that Paterno's last breaths came shortly after his last days as the poster child for Penn State football because you can't really imagine one living without the other. Now, much like the media will do after a man they've besmirched has passed on, people will rush to recant all the daggers they threw Paterno's way and speak glowingly of the man, the myth and the legend.

We saw this before after the passing of much-maligned Yankees owner George Steinbrenner. While alive, "The Boss" was everything that was wrong with how the business of baseball was being conducted, the poster child for big market teams' stranglehold over their small-market brethren. If "Moneyball" needed a face to play its villian, Steinbrenner's trademark smug scowl would have been perfect. Then, Steinbrenner died and he was remembered as the man who oversaw the greatest franchise in professional sports, the man who changed baseball and did whatever it took to win. He went from being Vince McMahon to being Vince Lombardi.

There will never be another Joe Paterno. In today's game, any coach who makes it to ten years at one school must do everything right. You make it to twenty years, you're a legend. Thirty? You're a god. Joe Paterno made it 46 years and only boy-banging kept him from making it a few more. Bob Stoops will be lucky to make it to 20 years at Oklahoma. Pete Carroll couldn't win enough at USC to avoid what was going to eventually happen to him with the Trojans. The same goes for Jim Tressel at Ohio State. We will never see 46 years of greatness at one school again. It's the Joe DiMaggio's 56-game hit streak of coaching runs. On the Mount Rushmore of coaches(in any sport), Paterno's bespeckled face should sit next to the Coach K's and Red Auerbachs of the world. Joe Paterno was the last remaining sign of an era where college football programs were represented by the coaches and not boosters or BCS bids or conference titles.

We all can choose to remember our legends differently. That's the beauty of man. I will remember Joe Paterno as a man who represented longevity at a position that has quickly become a revolving door, who brought class to a sport that lacks morals and as a man who left the game before he was ready even after giving nearly a half-century of service. Joe Paterno was a leader of men and you can't tarnish that standing with a couple scandals no matter how disturbing those scandals are.

Joe Paterno's last breaths should have been taken on Beaver Field, not after he was ushered out of it. Joe Paterno lived and died Penn State football and THAT, more than anything, is how he should always be remembered.

Who's Going To Indy?

Gabe got his late Christmas present last week when his Giants, much like they did in 2007, pulled off the upset in Lambeau against my Packers. It was one of those things I saw coming almost immediately after Randall Cobb nearly fumbled away the kickoff on Green Bay's opening drive and it's a loss which, as I will write later this week, may actually make this Packers team better in the long run. Still, when you turn the ball over five times, you miss open guys on multiple occasions, and your receivers have a case of the drops, you aren't beating the San Francisco Giants, let alone the New York Giants.

Regardless, Gabe's moment in the sun could be short-lived if Big Blue doesn't handle business at The New Candlestick tonight so here is our take on today's Championship games.

LAST WEEK

Dave: 2-2

Gabe: 2-2

POSTSEASON

Gabe: 5-3

Dave: 3-5

Ravens (+7) at Patriots

Dave: Patriots - I'm picking the lesser of two evils here because I can do without Ravens fans running their mouth for the next two weeks(Pats fans are a little easier to hush because you can always fire back "18-1" at them). Baltimore has had New England's number in recent years, most notably the last time these two met in the playoffs in 2008 when Baltimore smacked New England in the mouth in Foxboro. If the Ravens are smart, they replicate that same formula by keeping the ball out of Joe Flacco's hands, letting Ray Rice carry the offense and have T-Sizzle and company tee off on Tom Brady.

The difference this time around is that the Patriots' offense no longer centers around going deep to Randy Moss and instead utilizes all-world tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Baltimore might be able to silence one, but not both, mainly because the pass rush is non-existent beyond Terrell Suggs. As we saw with Green Bay last week, if your pass rush is a one man show and that one man show can't apply pressure, you're going to get picked apart. Baltimore's only hope is getting out to an early lead and forcing Brady to make mistakes. If Joe Flacco has to keep up with Tom Brady this time around, you might as well punch New England's ticket to Indy by halftime. Flacco might not have killed the Ravens last week against Baltimore, but he was still dreadful. With all the turnovers Baltimore forced against Houston, the Texans shouldn't have still been in that game at the end. You can thank Flacco for that. I've said it repeatedly that Baltimore's chances of hoisting the Lombardi are contingent on Flacco being better than a sieve at QB. So far, they've benefited from drawing a 5th-round rookie in their first playoff game this season. Tom Brady's no rookie and he can smell another Super Bowl. I think Baltimore keeps New England's scoring output in the high-20's but Flacco comes up short in the end. Pats by 9.

Gabe: Patriots - I'm taking the Pats, mostly because I'd rather see my Giants play them in the Super Bowl.

Giants (+2) at Niners

Dave: Giants - As great as San Francisco's win over New Orleans last week was, a couple things should be mentioned: 1. SF blew a 17-0 lead. 2. They forced five Saints turnovers and still needed a miraculous final drive to beat the Saints by 4. 3. The Giants' D is a lot better than the Saints' D. Granted, the Niners' D is much better than Green Bay's and LB's Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis are going to make things much more difficult than Clay Matthews and company did last week. Still, much like Flacco vs. NE today, the Niners' chances of advancing are going to come down once again to Alex Smith being able to go score-for-score with another prolific QB in Eli Manning. That's going to be tough to do with this Giants' pass rush in Smith's face all game. The Packers proved you can run on the Giants(but somehow felt the need to not do so as often as they should have) so a heavy dose of Frank Gore might keep SF in this one but if San Fran's recipe for success in this postseason is hoping their opponent turns the ball over five times then plays soft D on the final drive of the game, then they are S.O.L.. They should have blew that game against New Orleans. Lightning doesn't strike the same place twice. Giants win by 10 and I get two weeks of unbearable Gabe texts.

Gabe: Giants - Because I have to.

The Typecast All-Stars

While this is mainly a sports website, Gabe and I fancy ourselves as movie buffs(well, more Gabe than me since it's his desire to watch every movie on the AFI Top 100 while I've yet to watch Casablanca). Still, both of us have watched enough movies to notice actors who tend to play the same role....no matter the film....no matter the genre....no matter the plot. The case can be made for hundreds of thespians but we decided to single out a chosen few. So we made an all-star team out of it because, after all, this IS a sports website.

Without further ado, here is your starting lineup for The Typecast All-Stars:

Catcher: Chris Farley - Given Farley's personality and lack of acting chops, it's hard to tell whether Farley was just a bad actor who played the same guy in every movie or he was just being himself in every movie. Farley even admitted that he tried to play the same character, just at different volumes. It's hard to argue with that statement when you watch Tommy Boy or Black Sheep or even his small part in Airheads For those too young to catch Farley before his death in 1997, be it on Saturday Night Live or on the big screen, think of him as a funnier and more coked-up Jack Black.



First Base: James Gandolfini - As someone who counts The Sopranos as his favorite show of all-time, it hurts putting Big Jim on here. That being said, Gandolfini will never shake being Tony Soprano. Now, that's no fault of his own because it's not like he's only auditioning for roles as a Jersey mob boss since The Sopranos ended. Still, much like Jason Alexander and Michael Richards after Seinfeld, it's hard for fans of The Sopranos to not see Tony when Gandolfini is on screen. Try watching The Last Castle or even Gandolfini's cameo on an episode of Portlandia and tell me I'm lying. Gandolfini is a hell of an actor, but sometimes when you reach an iconic status as a character, it's hard to make your mark again elsewhere. Just ask Jennifer Aniston.



Second Base: Mark Wahlberg - Wahlberg was so hellbent on losing his image as "Marky Mark" that it seems like he's spent most of his career taking every role as the token bad ass. What started with The Big Hit and The Corruptor was really driven home with flicks like Four Brothers and, most importantly, The Departed. Playing Sgt. Dignum in Scorcese's masterpiece showed that Wahlberg isn't just some next-gen Sly Stallone and earned Wahlberg some credibility as an actor. That didn't stop Wahlberg from signing up for every hard-ass role once The Departed had its day at The Oscars. The Fighter, The Other Guys and his latest one Contraband all cast Wahlberg as the "bust-you-in-the-teeth tough guy". It's a long way from selling Calvin Klein underwear or letting his dong swing as Dirk Diggler in "Boogie Nights".



Shortstop: Jeremy Piven - With the exception of the next person on our list, Piven might have been the easiest lock on the team. The disclaimer here should probably read "Post-Entourage" since Piven seems content on reinventing himself by playing Ari Gold in every single film he does now. Gone is the guy from PCU and, in his place, is Piven playing any role that involves him being a slick-talking wise ass, a la his role in HBO's hit Entourage. I guess that's understandable. After all, Piven can't be more than a hair above 5'6. You can't exactly cast him as a Clint Eastwood/Liam Neeson roles. How about some more dramatic roles though, Pivs? You can't be Ari Gold forever. A lesson you should have learned from watching Smokin' Aces.



Third Base: Ryan Reynolds - Now, in Reynolds' defense, he's a shitty actor, so it should be expected that he's seemingly unwilling to take roles outside of his wheelhouse. In fairness again, Reynolds' attempts at being un-Van Wilder have flopped miserably(then again, so have a lot of Reynolds' films). Have you seen Green Lantern? How about Change-Up or Buried? No? Me neither. Reynolds is at his best(which still isn't very good) when he can be the token pretty boy wise ass and combine the occasional punch line with the occasional reason to take off his shirt and get the teeny boppers who paid their 10 bucks to swoon. Disagree? Try watching Van Wilder then taking a view at Waiting... and Just Friends. He couldn't even help trying to be a funnyman in Blade: Trinity and X-Men Origins: Wolverine, which weren't even comedies. If there's a saving grace for Reynolds, it might come this month when Denzel carries Reynolds' ass for two hours in Safe House.



Left Field: Morris Chestnut - Terry McMillan writes books and Tyler Perry pens scripts knowing that, eventually, their movies will have Morris Chestnut in them. IMDB described Chestnut as "versatile", which made me laugh so hard, I nearly fell out of my chair. Watch The Inkwell, The Best Man, Two Can Play That Game, Breakin' All The Rules and The Brothers and tell me where you see versatility. Sure, those movies are a change of pace from Chestnut's tilt as Ricky in Boyz N The Hood(perhaps the only movie with Chestnut in it that I enjoyed). If you surf through Blockbuster for any movie with an all-black ensemble cast, chances are you'll find Chestnut in there somewhere. We get it, bro, chicks think you're sexy and I imagine it's hard to be taken seriously as a bad ass when your name is Morris Chestnut, but mix it up a little, my dude. Even Idris Elba got tired of doing the Madea movies. Take a page out of the Jamie Foxx playbook, Mo, and try doing something different than being the black Ryan Reynolds. Who knows? Maybe you'll get your big break if they ever ask you to play the lead role in a movie about DMX.



Center Field: Keanu Reeves - I will forever hold it against Keanu Reeves for ruining one of the best action movie trilogies with his horrendous acting. How does one manage to stumble upon a bad ass role like Neo in The Matrix and think to themselves "What if I manage to do this role exactly like I did Speed?" Reeves approaches every role with the same dumb surfer boy swagger that was annoying in Point Break and has since been perfected by Matthew McConaughey. You know how frustrating it is to watch three hours of state-of-the art CGI and gunfights with the main character recreating his role as Jack Traven? Reeves made attempts to be taken seriously with flicks like Sweet November and The Lake House but couldn't refrain from unleashing that same stoner "Whoa!" that made him famous in the Bill & Ted movies. Not long after "The Lake House" bombed, Reeves was back doing the only two things he knows how to do: playing a cop(Street Kings) or getting nerds excited with another sci-fi thriller(The Day The Earth Stood Still). It almost makes you wish Dennis Hopper blew his ass up on that bus.



Right Field: Vince Vaughn - When I sent out a mass text asking friends for suggestions before writing this piece, every single person hit me back with the same name: Vince Vaughn. Now, I like Vince Vaughn. Wedding Crashers is one of my favorite movies, as is Dodgeball. That being said, on a team of guys who play the same role in every film, Vaughn is the face of the franchise. Swingers, Be Cool, Mr. and Mrs. Smith, The Break-Up, Couples Retreat, Fred Claus......he might as well just use the same name in every movie. You would think a handsome guy who stands around 6'6 could do something besides be a Dean Martin clone, but that's apparently not the case. Look, Vaughn's performances in even his best films hardly frustrate you into thinking he could do more. Let's face it, he's not the second coming of Clint Eastwood, but why can't he steal some of the dramatic sports movie roles that keep going to guys like Kevin Costner and Dennis Quaid?



Starting Pitcher: Freddie Prinze Jr. - He's the white man's answer to Morris Chestnut. Freddie Prinze Jr's sole purpose in Hollywood is to play the pretty boy male love interest in every teeny bopper movie. He's like the dude version of Jessica Biel. She's All That, the Scooby Doo movies, the I Know What You Did Last Summer movies, Summer Catch.......Prinze spent the prime of his acting career trying to get inducted into the Tiger Beat Hall of Fame. Hell, even Jennifer Love Hewitt managed to go outside of the box with Ghost Whisperer and her acting makes Paris Hilton look like Meryl Streep. Prinze's acting chops aren't much better. He makes guys like Ryan Reynolds and Keanu Reeves look like Jack Lemon and Walter Matthau. On the bright side for FPJ, he wouldn't have even made the cut if not for fellow token pretty boy Paul Walker's atrocious turn in Running Scared. At least that was a far cry from being Lance Harbor in Varsity Blues, albeit an unwatchable far cry.



Closing Pitcher: Michael Cera - I'm not sure what roles Cera could really play besides those played by meek little boys. After all, it's not like Cera is a shoe-in to be Gambit in the next X-Men flick. Still, Cera hasn't exactly evolved from his days as George-Michael on Arrested Development. Superbad? Juno? He's pretty much the same kid in both. If Scott Pilgrim vs. The World was supposed to be a change of pace and make Cera look like more of a bad ass, then it failed miserably. I guess you can't really take a kid who looks like an extra from Freaks and Geeks seriously, but can't you at least hope that plays a role that doesn't have him as the lovestruck pansy? Cera's still young, so I guess there's hope, but something tell me this kid is destined for the starring role in a Justin Bieber biopic.

Manager: Will Ferrell - A mortal lock. Talladega Nights, Elf, The Other Guys, Anchorman, Step Brothers......every Will Ferrell movie might as well have been an skit from Ferrell's SNL days. Other than being the funniest of the recent crop of SNL alums, what really sets Ferrell apart from Chris Kattan or David Spade? Ferrell should have been the Dan Akroyd of his Saturday Night Live graduating class: an immensely funny guy who had the acting acumen to do things besides be an immensely funny guy. In Ferrell's defense, at least his movies are entertaining. Try watching a Rob Schneider movie without cringing. Still, a guy with Ferrell's talent should be doing more. When Jim Carrey was making buckets of money from "Ace Ventura" and "The Mask", he got tired of being the same guy and set out to be taken seriously with more dramatic roles(Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, The Majestic, Man on the Moon). Why can't Ferrell follow the same career path?

General Manager: Adam Sandler - In a lot of ways, you could make this entire lineup out of Saturday Night Live's finest. I mean, it's not like Bill Hader is doing movies outside of his comfort zone. That being said, 17 years later, Adam Sandler is still emulating Billy Madison. Every Sandler flick plays out almost exactly like his best work in Happy Gilmore and The Wedding Singer. Is Just Go With It really that much different from Big Daddy? Is Bedtime Stories a drastic change from Click? Sandler tried his hand at some serious roles with Reign Over Me and Spanglish and did surprisingly well.....which makes his desire to go right back to the same formula with yawners like Grown Ups and Jack and Jill that much more frustrating. Sandler's made enough money off recycling the Bobby Boucher formula that you would like to see him do something different.....or at least take a break and come back when his movies are actually funny again.

The All-Star team turned out to be a sausage fest, but I couldn't end this thing without taking some shots at the ladies. So I made a cheerleader section....



*Kate Hudson - Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Remember when Hudson was hot shit after Almost Famous? Now every movie is a retread of How To Lose A Guy In 10 Days. Despite Maxim's determination to list Hudson as some kind of blonde bombshell, she never had the drop dead good looks to even snatch the "token hot girl" roles that seem to go to Jessica Biel and Anna Faris these days. With those roles out of the question, Hudson took another kick in the teeth once Scarlett Johannson stepped onto the scene. Now, Hudson's faded off the Earth. 2011 was a big year for women in movies but none of those women were named Kate Hudson. I guess that's what happens when you peak too early.



*Cameron Diaz - Speaking of peaking too early, Cameron Diaz has been playing the smoking hot ditzy blonde since she was Tina Carlyle in The Mask. There's a reason Diaz was a shoe-in for a role in the Charlie's Angels movies. She fits the Farrah Fawcett mold to a tee. Unlike Kate Hudson though, Diaz at least still gets some mainstream movie love and she made a slight bounce back with the popularity of the Shrek franchise. Still, Bad Teacher was so far out of left field from Diaz's entire career as a goof that it was hard to watch, even if she looked hot while doing it. Attractive women with not a lot of acting skill are a dime a dozen. Remember when Rose McGowen and Alicia Silverstone were headlining movies? Now they struggle for followers on Twitter. Plus, I'm about 90% sure any roles that would have went to Diaz now go to her illegitimate twin sister, Malin Ackerman.

Divisional Round Picks

Dave's cold streak continues(but did warn you guys in the Playoff Preview of a Broncos win over the Steelers) as Gabe added a two-game lead in the playoffs to go with his regular season crown.

On to Round 2.....

LAST WEEK:

Gabe: 3-1

Dave: 1-3

PLAYOFFS

Gabe: 3-1

Dave: 1-3

Saints (-3.5) at Niners

Dave: Niners - A couple of things you should know here before you kill me for this pick. First, the Saints have never won on the road in the playoffs under Drew Brees. The weather in San Fran isn't expected to be a factor but it goes without saying that things won't be as comfy for the Saints at The Stick as it would be in the friendly confines of the Superdome. Second, if you take away the shootout New Orleans won over Houston in the season's opening month, the Saints haven't faced a good defense all season. The closest thing to Houston that New Orleans faced was St. Louis(who finished 7th against the pass) and the Rams won that game. The Niners possess the best defense in the NFL and while defending the pass is their one weak link(16th against air attacks), they are pretty stout everywhere else. Pierre Thomas isn't going to be able to pound away at SF like he did Detroit and the Niners will be looking for those quick screens to Darren Sproles. A good defense has almost ALWAYS beat a good offense and I think San Fran pulls the upset here at home.

Gabe: San Fran - Historically great defense beats great offense. I'm taking the defense. Niners.

Broncos (+13.5) at Patriots

Dave: Broncos - Some more fun with numbers. The Patriots don't have a single victory over a team with a winning record all season. Sure, they beat the Broncos a couple months ago but it's safe to say that Denver has a bit more momentum in the rematch than they did the first go-round. The Broncos gashed the Patriots' porous defense with the run attack in the first game and I expect that to be true again in the second match. This time around though, Tim Tebow has a bit more comfort in the offense, a lot more comfort with WR Demaryius Thomas, and a Patriots' offensive line that might be too battered to keep Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil off of Tom Brady all game. Tebow and, especially, John Fox knows turnovers killed them the last time against New England and the age-old blueprint to beat New England has been keep Brady off the field and then smack him in the mouth when he's out there. I think another dose of Tebow magic is farfetched, but Denver keeping it under double digits? I'll take that.

Gabe: Broncos - Quite simply, no way the Pats win by two touchdowns.

Texans (+7.5) at Ravens

Dave: Ravens - This isn't as much of a lay-up as it seems. Sure, the Texans are beat up and they are trotting out T.J. Yates as their starting QB and Houston lost to Baltimore already this season but this still isn't a lock for the Ravens. The Texans play outstanding defense, which was something the Bengals found out the hard way last week. Second, you can never fully trust Joe Flacco if you're a Ravens fan. The Ravens' losses this season have come when both the team underestimated it's seemingly inferior opponent and Flacco looked more like Drew Bledsoe than Drew Brees. All that being said, I think this is Baltimore's year. With Pittsburgh out of the way, the only thing standing between them and a trip to Indy is themselves. The Ravens know the window is closing for Ray Lewis and Ed Reed and Ray Rice is too dangerous on the ground and in the passing game to be completely held in check. The Ravens are going to bog down on Arian Foster, force Yates to make throws/mistakes and keep Flacco from blowing this one. Ravens by 13.

Gabe: Ravens - Terrell Suggs makes sure he and rest of the Ravens ball so hard.

Giants (+7.5) at Packers

Dave: Giants - I haven't spoke to Gabe about this game all week. Not one snarky post on Facebook about our teams facing each other in the playoffs. No angry texts over Jason Pierre-Paul's "guarentee". No mentions of Green Bay's win over New York early in the year. Why? Because I remember 2007, when an underdog Giants team went into Lambeau and ruined Brett Favre's last chance at a Super Bowl as a Packer. However, while much is made over that upset, it's important to make distinctions. One, the QB for this week's game is Aaron Rodgers, not Brett Favre. Two, most of the stars on Green Bay's team weren't around for that '07 L. Three, the Packers weren't the defending Super Bowl champions playing at an absolute high back then like they are now. Four, while the Giants pass rush is improved, the secondary is much worse and you can make the case that the run game is as well(even if it's the same guys in the backfield as five years ago). So, why do I like New York? Because I know this game will be just as close as the last one was and I have very little faith in both the Packers O-Line as well as their defense. I still like Green Bay to win though. Aaron Rodgers has spent the last two weeks listening to how Matt Flynn killed his MVP campaign and how great Drew Brees is and how the Giants are going to pull off the upset again and, knowing A-Rod, I expect him to come out in full "Fuck you" mode. This game is going to come down to making costly mistakes and, unlike in '07, the Packers don't have a turnover machine at QB like they did then. So I'll take my boys, but I think they win it by 6 after Eli gets picked off on the final drive by Tramon Williams.

Gabe: Giants - Aaron Rodgers has had three weeks off and could be rusty. The Giants have tons of momentum. The thing the Giants do best of defense is harass and disrupt the opposition's passing game. In addition, the Packers are going through some turmoil because the death of their offensive coordinator's son. I think the Giants have a shot to win. They might not win, but it will be close.

One of One

It's been awhile since we've seen an athlete, let alone a quarterback, who has caused such a divide amongst the sports world's fan population.

When it comes to Tim Tebow, nobody is on the fence. You either love him or you hate him. The question is why? We know why people love him: He's the quintessential underdog. He's an inspiration to a slew of God-loving fans who, prior to Tebow's rise, didn't have an idol to identify with. He's a winner and, if you're a woman, you might also think he's attractive. He's one of the good guys.

The Tebow hatred is confounding but it's not complex. In a society filled with conformists who march in lockstep with an image forced upon them by clothing designers, musicians and pop culture, we can't stand anyone who goes against the grain. Even in the Barack Obama era, people are still opposed to change. Tim Tebow is different. He's more likely to pick up a Bible than a chick, more known to quote Matthew than Lil Wayne and is more the type to kick it at Sunday mass than to crack a beer at Buffalo Wild Wings. He isn't OUR type of quarterback. He's not a guy's guy like Brett Favre. He doesn't put up Drew Brees-esque numbers. He doesn't have an arm like Peyton Manning. He isn't as breathtaking a runner as Michael Vick. All he does is win.

And, really, isn't that why he's here? Tebow's style might be ugly but it gets the desired end result. However, in a world where athletes have to do things OUR way, that's just not good enough for us. People didn't care how LeBron James left Cleveland last summer. They just didn't like that he rubbed it people's faces. People didn't care that Roger Maris' single-season home run record got shattered. They just preferred it be done by someone not juiced up to look like Paul Bunyan or by an egomaniac with a reputation for being a self-absorbed prick. Tim Tebow's win over Pittsburgh on Sunday, in which he stuck it to a Steelers defense that completely underestimated his ability to throw a football and shocked a national audience that mostly believed his failure at Mile High was preordained, was the kind of fairy tale W that you see in predictable sports movies. Only in the "Rocky" movies does the underdog overcome the long odds and emerge triumphant in the closing moments against their heavily-favored adversary.

If there's a precedent here for the love 'em-or-hate 'em take on Tebow, it might very well be Maris himself back in 1961(which, naturally, was immortalized in Billy Crystal's excellent movie, 61*). Maris, like Tebow, was just a humble kid who had a love for the game but found himself to be a fish out of water as a farm boy entering the concrete jungle of New York City. Roger Maris wasn't a New Yorker's kind of Yankee. He wasn't Mickey Mantle or Babe Ruth or even Joe D. He just played ball and played it really well and, despite people in his own stands rooting against him, Maris laughed in the face of adversity and broke Babe Ruth's home run record. Years later, Maris died never getting the respect he rightfully deserved because he wasn't the kind of magnetic personality that Mantle or Ruth were.

Tebow is a bit more outgoing than Maris ever was but he's by no means Madison Avenue's next cash cow. Still, he's captivating. I fancy myself as anti-religion atheist, and I like Tim Tebow. I don't agree with his religious views and he'll never be as dear to my heart as the great Aaron Rodgers but he plays the game the right way. He may not play it the way it has traditionally been played for decades, but that's another reason I like him. General managers and coaches always scour the draft trying to find the "next" somebody: The "next Peyton Manning", the "next Tom Brady", the "next Brett Favre". There will never, EVER, be another Tim Tebow. And I don't even mean in the "Aw, shucks, I love Jesus" holy roller sense(though I doubt we see another one of those either. Before Tebow, the closest thing we had to a religious sports icon was Jon Kitna). There is no mold you could put Tebow in and say "he's just like (insert name here)". What you are watching is a true original: A quarterback who runs like a fullback and throws like a professional softball pitcher. Nowadays, your elite QB's fall into a handful of molds or prototypes:

*The Peyton Manning mold: Tall, statuesque passers who never leave the pocket(mainly because their speed limitations won't let them) and beat you with a strong arm and high football IQ. Guys who fit this mold? The Manning brothers, any QB prior to Steve Young, Carson Palmer, Warren Moon, Phillip Rivers and, inevitably, Andrew Luck.

*The Brett Favre mold: Strong-armed QB's with a flair for the dramatic who overtrust their cannon and try to make plays that aren't there by trying to overthrow the defense, which often leads to either a big play or a maddeningly stupid turnover. Most commonly known as "gunslingers". Guys who fit the mold? Favre, Rex Grossman, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Matt Stafford, J.P. Losman and, even before Favre, Jeff George.

*The Tom Brady mold: Tall, lean passers who can make plays with their feet but are by no means mistaken for scramblers More accurate than Favre types but don't possess a howitzer for an arm yet can throw the deep ball well and have good zip on their fastball. They look like surfboarders, which is to be expected because they mostly hail from the West Coast and possess that "Cali swagger". Guys who fit the mold? Brady, Steve Young, Aaron Rodgers, former Bills QB Rob Johnson, Mark Sanchez.

*The John Elway mold: Like Peyton Manning types in that they are tall, big bodied QB's with strong arms, except they also have nimble feet that allow them to move around in the pocket and even break loose on the occasional scamper when the play breaks down. Guys who fit the mold? Elway, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Donovan McNabb(later in his career, after injuries limited his mobility and willingness to scramble), JaMarcus Russell, Daunte Culpepper. Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III kind of fit this mold as well because they are pass-first, thick-built passers but they also have the speed and athleticism to be more of a threat with their legs than the other guys mentioned here.

*The Mike Vick mold: Always thinking run first, then throw because they exceptional speed and are more likely to blow by defenders with their uncanny quickness than trying to squeeze a pass through tight coverage. Slimmer than Elway types, making them more susceptible to injury but are also much faster. They do possess the strong arm requisite to make plays in the pocket but don't always have the most accurate of arms, making scrambling the most reliable option. Guys who fit the mold? Vick, Vince Young, Terrelle Pryor, Randall Cunningham.

*The Joe Montana mold: Pretty much the default comparison for any QB that doesn't possess elite size or arm strength. Most commonly found in guys who are under 6'3. They beat defenses with precision passing as opposed to throwing bombs downfield. Excel in offenses that rely heavily on short, quick accurate passes. Guys who fit the mold? Montana, Chad Pennington, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner(though Warner and Brees have better arms than given credit for), Colt McCoy.

*The Tim Tebow mold: Glorified option QB's with the size and speed that makes them a threat outside of the pocket because they are fast enough to get by the front seven and big enough to be difficult to bring down. Like LeBron James in basketball, they are usually too quick for the bigs and too big for the quicks. Can make plays with their arm but they don't normally possess the ability to throw the deep ball or elite accuracy. Guys who fit the mold? Tebow. That's it. That's the list. If there's anyone comparable, you could make the case for Quincy Carter(who excelled in the option when he was Dallas) or, from a build standpoint, Cam Newton but both Carter and Newton were more polished passers than Tebow.

Time will tell how this Disney-esque Tebow story plays out. All signs point to ending in Foxboro when Tebow squares off against another overhyped signal caller who broke into the league amidst much scrutiny and doubters: Tom Brady. To make the story more compelling, the guy that believed enough in Tebow to draft him as his franchise QB, Josh McDaniels, will be on the opposing sidelines trying to cook up a game plan for Brady to match the attack of the monster McDaniels helped create a couple years ago. It's the perfect story of two men who overcame long odds to be the poster child for a nation's adoration and anger.

You'll either love it or hate it.

Wild Card Playoffs Picks

Since Gabe missed Week 17, we didn't bother to count it into the regular season record and just gave him the regular season crown. We'll put an asterisk on it though. Truth be told, Gabe didn't even have to mail in his picks from across the water because, while The Big Adobo had an excuse for vacating the final week of the season, Dave had no answer for his no-show.

Here's our take on the playoffs' opening weekend:

LAST WEEK

Dave: 5-9
Gabe: n/a

REGULAR SEASON(through Week 16)

Gabe: 120-112-11
Dave: 113-121-11

Lions (+10.5) at Saints

Dave: Lions - Howie Long said it best on "The Dan Patrick Show"....this has Baylor-Washington written all over it. Double digits is asking a lot considering this Lions team just went punch-for-punch with a slightly better Packers team in Lambeau(granted, with no Aaron Rodgers). The Saints are going to win this game but they aren't going to dominate and arrogant spreads like these are what gives underdogs like Detroit momentum to make Super Bowl runs. New Orleans doesn't have an answer for Calvin Johnson but New Orleans spreads the ball out too much and too quickly for Detroit's solid pass rush to get their hands on Drew Brees. I think this is a shootout til the end because neither team can run the ball consistently enough to eat up clock. Saints by 6.


Gabe: Saints


Bengals (+3.5) at Texans


Dave: Bengals - You wonder what this Texans team would be like if they had a healthy Matt Schaub and Mario Williams. Unfortunately, they don't and the Bengals are good enough against the run to neutralize Houston's last remaining weapon: Arian Foster. It's hard betting on a rookie QB and a rookie WR on a team that chronically underachieves in the playoffs to go on the road and notch a win but Houston is way too beat up to put up a fight here. Bengals by 4.


Gabe: Bengals


Steelers (-8) at Broncos


Dave: Broncos - I think Denver loses here but keep in mind that Pittsburgh hasn't covered a spread with Roethlisberger at QB since Ben hurt his ankle against Cleveland a month ago. With Mendenhall out, they need Issac Redman to be this year's James Starks. Could it happen? Sure. But the Steelers are going to have to eventually establish the passing game if they are going to beat the Broncos by more than a touchdown. I think we see struggles by both offenses and a defensive touchdown is the difference here. Steelers by 7.


Gabe: Broncos - Denver loses but all of the Pittsburgh injuries keep this one close.


Falcons (+3) at Giants


Dave: Falcons - The Giants' D-line spent the week talking shit about the Falcons' offensive line. Karma usually isn't favorable towards teams that provide bulletin board material, particularly in big games such as this. The Falcons have the balance on offense that the Giants don't and Michael Turner is the perfect kind of big body bruiser to play in the wintery chills of the Meadowlands. New York is the scariest team in these playoffs but I think all the fuss about Green Bay and New Orleans and San Francisco has allowed us to forget that Atlanta's pretty damn good too. I'm going for the upset here. Falcons by 10.


Gabe: Giants - I truly think my Giants go one and done in this years playoffs, but they are going to get this one. If they can corral Michael Turner (not an easy task by any stretch) and put the Falcons in passing situations then the Giants' pass rush will wreack havoc on Matty Ice. Giants by a touchdown.

2012 NFL Playoff Preview

With the speed of a Ted Ginn Jr. punt return, the regular season has ended and tomorrow the playoffs will commence. This year's tournament looks more like a March Madness bracket where uncertainty and inconsistency means all it will take is the right team getting hot to make a Super Bowl run. You can make the case for any of these 12 teams making the Super Bowl(OK, maybe not Houston). Our takes on the games themselves will come tomorrow just before kickoff. Today will be more of a primer of things to expect and what to watch.

Before I get into that, though, some post-regular season awards.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers - Andy Dalton is going to grab a few votes because he's actually still playing while Cam was making vacation plans for January months ago. However, if Newton and Dalton switch teams, which team benefits more? I'm saying Cincinnati does. Look, I'm not knocking Dalton at all. He had to make the same transition Newton did as a rookie who had to learn an offense with a shortened training camp. That being said, your only case for Dalton is the team's success, which is as much because of fellow rookie A.J. Green as it is "The Red Rifle". Newton's numbers, though, make this a no-brainer. 4,051 yards passing, 701 yards rushing, 21 passing TDs, NFL-record 14 rushing TDs. Newton finished with more yards than last year's NFC rushing champion Ahmad Bradshaw and scored more touchdowns on the ground than anyone not named LeSean McCoy. Dalton might have helped make the Bengals a playoff team but Cam Newton makes the Panthers very scary for years to come.



Defensive Rookie of the Year: Aldon Smith, LB, San Francisco 49ers - A lot of good candidates this year. Patrick Peterson was huge for Arizona but his best moments came more in the return game than on defense. Von Miller looked like he had this award wrapped up and then he injured his hand and the air came out of the tires. If anything, the Broncos' lack of punch with Miller hurt(no pun intended) could actually help Miller's case more than hurt it. Still, it's hard to argue the impact of Aldon Smith on what might be the league's best defense. 14 sacks and a safety are pretty impressive numbers and Smith, unlike Miller, has a signature game to hang his hat on. With Pro Bowl ILB Patrick Willis on the sidelines, Smith stepped up on national television and reeked havoc on Pittsburgh to the tune of 2.5 sacks and provided constant pressure on Big Ben. It was one of four multi-sack games for Smith. Miller? Only one, and he didn't register a sack the final three weeks of the season, which allowed Smith to overtake. Either way, this was a good year for rookies on defense.



Coach of the Year: Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco 49ers - Not that my opinion or ability to predict division standings in the preseason(or lack thereof) mean anything, but I had San Francisco finishing third in the NFC West in my preseason preview and, at the time, I thought that was generous. Nobody, and I mean, NOBODY, saw Harbaugh rallying this group together with an abbreviated training camp, forming the league's best defense, making Alex Smith somewhat respectable at QB and combining all those components to create the NFC's #2 seed.

It's hard to give Harbaugh too much credit as he's an offensive-minded coach whose team is led primarily by its defense and whose offense is, at best, pedestrian. John Fox might get some love here, too, for resurrecting a Broncos team that was 3-13 last year and making them a division champion. What knocks Fox down a peg to me is that the fact that he seemed begrudgingly happy over the team's success when Tim Tebow took over as the team's starting QB. The entire 2011 Broncos season under Touchdown Jesus was Fox and John Elway trying their hardest not to grit their teeth over not being able to replace Tebow in the offseason and pretending to put their arm around their franchise savior with half-hearted kudos and back-handed compliments. Harbaugh, meanwhile, never looked ashamed that he was winning the West with one of the all-time biggest Draft busts as his QB and has the Niners looking like the closest thing to the 2000 Ravens that we've seen in 11 years.

Defensive Player of the Year: Terrell Suggs, LB, Baltimore Ravens - Gabe texted me a couple weeks ago giving me props for being one of the only people to see the breakout of Jason Pierre-Paul coming(something I mentioned in a preseason preview two years ago). JPP deserves some Defensive MVP love and there's a chance he steals this award from T-Sizzle with his recent surge the last month or so. 86 tackles, 16.5 sacks and a safety are damn good numbers for a defensive end and those numbers dwarf those of Suggs for the most part.

My reasoning for Suggs over Paul is two-fold: One, while his numbers aren't as great as JPP's, Suggs' numbers are still excellent: 70 tackles, 14 sacks, 2 INTs and 7 forced fumbles. Both men shined against heated division rivals. Pierre-Paul dominated both games against the Cowboys en route to helping seal an NFC East title for the Giants while Suggs laid a whooping on Pittsburgh in Week 1 with 3 sacks and 2 forced fumbles to set the tone for what would be an AFC North-winning campaign for the Ravens. Secondly, while Suggs has tons of quality talent around him on that Ravens D, Baltimore is lacking in the pass-rushing department beyond T-Sizzle. JPP has Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka(even if all three were hurt at some point in the year). I'm not taking anything away from JPP, but it's much easier to dominate when opposing offenses have guys everywhere to look out for. Offenses facing the Ravens knew the pass rush lived and died with Terrell Suggs....and he still made them pay every week.

Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints - A bit of a spoiler here, I suppose, for my pick for MVP as Brees' selection here pretty much gives away my MVP pick(though, if you read my take on this matter a week ago, you should have already known my choice to begin with). The Brees-Rodgers debate is something that can for hours, maybe even days. You want to say Matt Flynn's breakout game last week against Detroit hurts A-Rod in terms of the "value" discussion for MVP? I won't kill you for it. When Flynn is starting elsewhere, we'll know whether he was a product of the system or not, but to ask "Well, if Matt Flynn started for Green Bay all season and Chase Daniel started all season for the Saints, what would their records be?" is a question that is impossible to answer and should have no bearing when comparing the two guys who did actually start for the Saints and Packers all season(or in Rodgers' case, almost all season). Brees' only advantage over Rodgers is in pure numbers. Rodgers has the better team record. Rodgers beat Brees head-to-head.

That being said, Brees deserves his just due and winning this award doesn't shortchange everything Brees accomplished. Nearly 5,500 yards and 46 TD's are amazing numbers and Brees' shattering of Dan Marino's passing record is an achievement I don't believe any QB going forward will be able to take from him. He deserves his time in the sun. He just doesn't deserve MVP.

Most Valuable Player: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers - Week 17 definitely hurt Rodgers' case, but let's not act like people weren't looking for a reason to give the MVP to Brees a week prior when he broke the passing yards record. Rodgers had nothing to play for in Week 17 so he didn't. Brees didn't have anything left to play for in the 4th quarter of the Falcons game(except the record) and damn sure how nothing left to prove in the second half against the Panthers, but Sean Payton had him in there anyway. It's hard to give credit to such a blatant attempt to put a guy over. Aaron Rodgers was so incredibly consistent week-after-week that it became boring to talk about. We ran out of hyperbole. We ran out of reasons to compare his season to Brady's 2007 or find ways to put him over Brett Favre, so we just stopped. Meanwhile, Drew Brees was unleashing an assault on the record books and he became the new fun thing to talk about. In a world where what's "trending" changes within minutes, some decided to switch from Rodgers to Brees.

And I'm not saying MVP talk for Brees is unwarranted, just that, short of a few records, there's nothing Brees accomplished this season that Rodgers hadn't as well. 14-1 as a starter, nearly 4,700 yards passing, a 45-6 TD-to-INT ratio(in an offense that barely ever runs the ball, no less) and an NFL-record 122.5 QB rating are still astonishing numbers, even if they aren't as gaudy as Brees' in some aspects. As I said a week ago, Rodgers vs. Brees is something that will only be cleared up in a rematch, if it happens, this season. You wish we could suspend the MVP til then, but we can't. For this season, Aaron Rodgers played this season like a maestro leading an orchestra. Whether he's better than Drew Brees is a case Rodgers already made once this season, but he'll be more than glad to refresh your memory in a couple weeks.

And, now......some playoff thoughts.

Sneakiest Potental First Round Upset: Broncos over Steelers - Hold the hate, Pittsburgh. Let me explain myself here.

1. No Rashard Mendenhall. No Ryan Clark. No Maurkice Pouncey. Big Ben is, surprise surprise, banged up with yet another injury he's going to try to play through. A swiss-cheese Steelers offensive line is going up against a Broncos pass rush with a two-headed monster in Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil. Champ Bailey is going to put the clamps on Mike Wallace and it's in Denver, with thousands of psycho Bronco fans in attendance for their first home playoff game in years.

2. Tim Tebow might not be much of a QB, but he finds ways to win and John Fox is a playoff-tested head coach. He's not going to let Tebow blow this game. With no running game and potentially no deep attack for the Steelers, this game could very well be closer than you think. You know who thrives in close games? Tim Tebow.

3. Keep in mind that, this time last year, nobody gave the Seattle Seahawks a chance to beat the defending Super Bowl champion Saints at home in the first round, and we saw how that ended. I'm not saying Denver's going to win this one, but history has shown that victories this time of year are hardly a certainty(Trust me, as someone who thought Green Bay was going to throttle the Giants in 2007). If you don't have your doubts about the Steelers on Sunday, then you're either kidding yourself or have more confidence than most.

Sleeper Team That Can Make A Real Run: New York Giants - NYG is a bit of a wild card. On the one hand, they possess the league's best pass rush in a playoffs that will see them potentially face four of the best passing offenses in the NFL if things fall that way(Atlanta in Round 1, followed by potentially Green Bay, New Orleans and New England). They can sling the ball with anybody(as they proved with their nailbiting loss to Green Bay a month ago), and they have the experience of entering the playoffs under the radar(2007.....when they went from 6 seed to Super Bowl champions). On the other, they tend to shit the bed every now and then(swept by the lowly Redskins, losing to a Vince Young-led Eagles team, getting worked by Seattle early in the year) and, despite having a talented duo in Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, Big Blue struggles running the ball(league worst rushing offense). The Giants could emulate their run in 2007......or their season could come to screeching halt against Atlanta this weekend.

Biggest Playoff X-Factor: Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore Ravens - While we're on the subject of the 2007 Giants, I compared Flacco to Eli Manning prior to his '07 playoff run. Same emotionless body language. Same tendency to hold the ball too long. Same boneheaded decision making. Like Manning, Flacco holds the keys to a legit Super Bowl contender. Baltimore had Pittsburgh on the ropes last year in the Divisional Round before the wheels came off in the second half. If Baltimore ends up pulling that one out, who knows how that 2010 season ends? Do the Ravens top the Jets? Does Rex Ryan's Super Bowl prediction come true or does he fail and Baltimore makes it? Does Aaron Rodgers carve up the Ravens like he did the Steelers? We'll never know. Here's what we do know: The window on Baltimore's standing as Super Bowl contenders is rapidly closing. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, sure-fire Hall of Famers on their last legs, aren't going to be around much longer to rally the troops and, for as good as Ray Rice has been this season, the offense needs Flacco to step up to keep defenses on their toes. The Ravens have shown this year that have what it takes to topple the Steelers(albeit in the regular season) but for them to make a run, Flacco needs to avoid the critical mistakes that have plagued in games like the ones against Jacksonville and San Diego. If Flacco takes the next step like Manning in '07, you can pencil Baltimore in to their first Super Bowl since 2000.

2012 NFL Playoffs' Unsung Hero(The David Tyree Award): Darren Sproles, RB, Saints - A couple of things you might not have known about Sproles' 2011 season: He nearly doubled the best rushing total of his career with 603 yards(on only 87 carries, for an average of 6.9 a carry). He caught 86 passes for 710 yards and 7 TD's in an offense that loves to spread it around. That's a little over 1,300 yards of offense and we haven't even gotten into his production in the return game(though it should be mentioned he had one punt return of 40+ yards and a TD as well as two 40+ yard kickoff returns this season). With Mark Ingram out and Pierre Thomas being, well, Pierre Thomas, Sproles is the Saints' best weapon on the ground and his receiving and return numbers proves he can be dangerous from nearly anywhere. He's this generation's Dave Meggett, a diminutive back who doesn't have every-down size but can give you every-down production and is a threat to take it the distance no matter how he touches the ball. Teams are going to spend an inordinate amount of time trying to game plan Drew Brees or Marque Colston or Jimmy Graham. The guy they need to worry about is the 5'6 midget with the lightning fast feet.

Legit Story We Are Way Too Worried About: Detroit's Week 17 loss to Green Bay - A couple years ago, Green Bay walked into Arizona on the final weekend of the regular season and laid an ass whooping on the Cardinals. A week later, the two teams met in the Wild Card round and the Packers had to rally back from a 21-0 deficit to lose a heartbreaker in overtime to the eventual NFC champions. We learned two things from Detroit's loss last week: Their defense gives up a ton of yards and points....and their offense can go score-for-score with anyone. For as bad as that shootout against Matt Flynn and company was Motown's defense, it should be the Lions only lost by four and had a chance to win on the final drive before Sam Shields came up with the game-clinching pick. Who's to say the ball can't bounce in Detroit's favor against New Orleans? There aren't many defenses, if there are any, that can keep Calvin Johnson in check and, while the numbers might tell a different story, a defense led by Ndomukong Suh is still pretty damn scary. The Lions have as much young talent as anybody and, lest we forget, this team was one of the last two undefeated teams standing before losing to Chicago in Week 10. Did the wheels come off the bandwagon in Motor City or did Detroit use last week's loss as a chance to regroup and come out firing when the real season starts? Time will tell.

Legit Story We Are NOT Worried Enough About: Bill O'Brien taking the Penn St head coaching job - There are two differing precedents here we could use for New England Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien's decision to take the Penn State job before the playoffs start and its effect it will have on the team. There's the precedent from a few years back when then-Patriot coordinators Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis found head coaching jobs while still working for New England during their Super Bowl run(Weis with Notre Dame, Crennel with the Browns). Those hirings didn't distract the Patriots from winning the Super Bowl and both men ended up getting a classy sendoff as the team hoisted the Lombardi trophy. Then, there was Weis, in his return to the NFL as the OC of the Kansas City Chiefs, taking the OC job with the University of Florida prior to the Chiefs facing the Ravens in Round 1. The Chiefs looked anemic on offense, Weis and Todd Haley butted heads at halftime and Weis left the team on unpleasant terms. We won't know which way this new scenario will play out but it seems ridiculous to think that it can't end like Weis' did in Kansas City last year. O'Brien is a fiery guy(as we saw with his shouting match with Tom Brady earlier this season) and he's just agreed to take a job at one of the most infamous schools in college football history, replacing the greatest college football coach of all-time, a year after a scandal that rocked the entire country all season. You don't think Billy O might be a little preoccupied right now?

And last, but certainly, not least.......the obligatory Super Bowl prediction.

Super Bowl 46: Ravens 27, Saints 24 - I had Saints-Patriots in the preseason and, truth be told, I was more than ready to stick with that.......until I wrote the previous paragraph. I have a hard time convincing myself this O'Brien thing won't be a distraction and, even if it's not, this Patriots defense is horrible. In fact, it may be the worst of the 12 playoff teams and that includes a Lions squad that just gave up 45 points to the Packers B team. The Ravens have proven they aren't scared of Pittsburgh and I'd be more confident in the Steelers getting revenge if they didn't have to do it in Baltimore and if they weren't so beat up. As for the Saints, I think Drew Brees gets the best of Aaron Rodgers this time around in the NFC Championship as sort of a "Screw you" to MVP voters. I have zero confidence in this Packers defense and I think there is a more than decent chance they could be one and done if they cross paths with the Giants again in Round 2. Saints-Ravens pits the league's statistically-best QB against the AFC's best defense and, as we've seen time and time again, defense wins championships.

Back In The Game Now

The NFL postseason splits the league into two sides: those competing for the Lombardi and those who will spend their winter and spring going back to the drawing board. The guillotine came down swiftly on a few head coaches and general managers on Monday. Tuesday was the complete contrast with Eagles head coach Andy Reid and Chargers head coach Norv Turner as well as general manager A.J. Smith given a reprieve for their disappointing 2011 campaign.

With the next few weeks dedicated to the playoffs and the weeks following that expected to be occupied by Combine workouts, hot stove rumors and the actual NFL Draft, I felt like now was the best time to strike to give my ten cents(because my two cents is free) on who should fill these coaching vacancies and also weigh in on the jobs that aren't yet available but should be.

OPEN FOR BUSINESS

Miami Dolphins(6-10)

2010 Head Coach: Tony Sparano/Todd Bowles

What Needs To Be Fixed: First and foremost, this team needs a quarterback. Matt Moore did a decent job taking over for Chad Henne and helping the team from the bottom of the basement to a respectable 6-10 finish. Moore's not the answer, and the team's late surge kicked them out of the Andrew Luck/Robert Griffin III range they seemed poised to be stuck in after Miami's 0-8 start. The team could also use a boost to the pass defense, which was 25th in the league and doesn't have much of a pass rush beyond OLB Cameron Wake with long-time pass rusher Jason Taylor hanging them up.

Reasons For Hope: The Dolphins did manage to pull off the seemingly impossible by making a legit running back out of Reggie Bush after Bush failed to be more than a big name in New Orleans. The former USC standout and #2 overall pick notched his first 1,000 yard season this year and the Dolphins also have youngster Daniel Thomas to be both a change-of-pace back and a adequate backup for Bush's obligatory injuries. The Dolphins also did a good job stuffing the run this year, finishing 6th in rush defense.

The Man For The Job: Ex-Titans head coach Jeff Fisher - The team flew in Fisher in owner Stephen Ross' personal helicopter this afternoon and the former Titans head man is believed to be one of the Phins' four potential candidates along with Bears special teams coach Dave Toub, Jets defensive coordinator Mike Pettine and interim coach Todd Bowles. Fisher doesn't solve the Dolphins' need for a jolt on offense but Miami's tried to go the offensive route the last two times and failed with Sparano and Cam Cameron before him. Fisher's a seasoned vet who never should have been unceremoniously tossed out of Tennessee and the time has come for Fisher to get back in the game. With either the 8th or 9th pick in this year's Draft(pending a coin flip), Miami could try to make a move upward to get Heisman winner Robert Griffin III or sign a vet like Kyle Orton or, even better, Packers backup Matt Flynn. Fisher's acumen as a defensive-minded coach and as former defensive back will be beneficial to a team that was putrid against the pass and also has one of the best young cornerback duos in Vontae Davis and Sean Smith.

St. Louis Rams(2-14)

2010 Head Coach: Steve Spagnuolo

What Needs To Be Fixed: To put it plainly, everything. The Rams featured one of the worst offenses in recent memory this past season, thanks in large part to injuries to key members like QB Sam Bradford, RB Steven Jackson and wideouts Danny Amendola and Michael Clayton. The team made a trade for Broncos receiver Brandon Lloyd, who was familiar with Josh McDaniels' offense from their time together in Denver, but Lloyd and Bradford never got time to really develop chemistry thanks to a litany of Bradford injuries. Bradford's time in the infirmary might have something to do with the offensive line's inability to protect him. St. Louis allowed 55 sacks this past season and, by season's end, injuries forced the Rams to start Kellen Clemens at QB, whom they picked up off the street a couple weeks prior. Defensively, Spags lived up to his billing in bringing a fierce pass defense to that table, but even the '85 Bears are going to give up ground to opposing offenses if they are spending too much time on the field because of an anemic offense.

Reasons For Hope: The team has the benefit of having one of the game's best young QB's in Bradford, last year's Rookie of the Year. Jackson is also a premier every-down back even if his odometer is pretty high at only 28. Lloyd's a free agent and reports are surfacing that his chances of coming back to The Lou are tied to McDaniels returning as well. The team is also sitting pretty with the #2 pick as they can pretty much ask for a king's ransom from a team wanting RGIII or stay put and grab a wideout like Oklahoma St.'s Justin Blackmon. On defense, the team has some talent in guys like LB James Laurinaitis, S Quintin Mikell and DE's Chris Long and Robert Quinn.

The Man For The Job: Rams Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels - The Rams are in the Jeff Fisher Sweepstakes and I understand it's hard to justify promoting a guy who just helped lead the league's worst offense. That being said, McDaniels didn't have the benefit of a full training camp or a full season out of his star QB. It's hard to hold a man fully accountable under those circumstances. Plus, you'd be doing Bradford a disservice by forcing him to learn a third different offense in as many years. McDaniels knows this team and, if his presence allows the team to retain Lloyd, it may be worth giving him a shot. You aren't going to find too many high profile coaches who will want a reclamation project like this Rams team. With Bradford, Jackson, Lloyd, Quinn, Long, Laurinaitis and the #2 pick, McDaniels already has more young talent than he ever did in Denver. He's young. He's fiery and he deserves another chance.

Tampa Bay Bucs(4-12)

2010 Head Coach: Raheem Morris

What Needs To Be Fixed: Maybe I was a year too late in my prediction of Morris getting canned. With all the promise this team showed last season and the expectations coming into this year, you wonder if this season's letdown was more the team quitting on Morris than any glaring holes. The team has drafted well for the last couple years and if there are any huge needs it's a coach who can get these young kids focused and a every down running back since current starter LaGarrette Blount is a liability on passing downs thanks to his stone hands and inability to throw a block.

Reasons For Hope: There's young talent EVERYWHERE on this Bucs team. From QB Josh Freeman to WRs Arrellious Benn and Mike Williams to DE's Adrian Clayborn and Da'Quan Bowers to LB Mason Foster to CB Aqib Talib, Tampa Bay is stacked. Add the fact that this team is picking 5th in a loaded draft and this may be the most worthwhile job on the market....for a coach who isn't afraid to put boot to ass.

The Man For The Job: Patriots Offensive Coordinator Bill O'Brien - This job would have been perfect for Bill Parcells 10 years ago because nobody's better in getting his players in check than The Tuna. Parcells has hung 'em up, however, so why not go to the well with a member from the Parcells tree. O'Brien showed he's not afraid to get up in a player's grill by going toe-to-toe with Tom Brady on the sidelines a couple weeks ago. If O'Brien isn't scared to tell Tom Terrific where to go(or say "Thanks, but no thanks" to Penn State), then he should have no problem telling the knuckleheads on this Bucs team where they can shove it. O'Brien has already received interest from the Jaguars and, before that, Penn State before telling the Nittany Lions he'll pass. As the brains behind one of the most explosive offenses in football, O'Brien could shake things up for Bucs team that's high on potential but was low on results this year. He'd have to get Freeman back into 2009 form but I imagine that won't be that difficult and, with the help from a skilled defensive coordinator, O'Brien could have the Bucs back on top in the NFC South quickly.

Jacksonville Jaguars(5-11)

2010 Head Coach: Jack Del Rio/Mel Tucker

What Needs To Be Fixed: The case can be made that no team is in more of a need for a star receiver than the Jacksonville Jaguars. How this team expected Blaine Gabbert to succeed with Jason Hill and Mike Thomas as his top targets is beyond me. The team tried bringing Mike Sims-Walker back after a brief stint in St. Louis but MSW lasted all of ten seconds before hitting the IR. Top corner Rashean Mathis is a free agent and his potential departure would be a blow to the team. The Jags also need to work on their offensive line after allowing 44 sacks this season.

Reasons For Hope: The allure of the Jaguars job is based on what you think of the potential of Blaine Gabbert. If you believe he's an Alshon Jeffery and some protection away from being another in a long line of rising young QB's, then this job might be enticing to you. If you think Gabbert has bust written all over him, then you'll have your work cut out for you. One guy whom the jury is not still out on is 2011 rushing champion Maurice Jones-Drew. On an offense that scared nobody with the threat of the pass, MoJo D still went for a little over 1,600 yards and 8 TD's(while throwing in another 374 and 3 scores through the air for good measure). Defensively, the unit finished in the top 10 in three of the four main categories(total yards, passing, and rushing) and finished 11th in scoring defense, so there's hope there(However, it should be noted that these numbers are with Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub, two guys the Jags will face twice a year, missing 3 of the 4 games they were expected to play against Jacksonville). The Jaguars will pick 7th this year and, with so many picks already used on the offensive line and addressing the defense, the time has come for this team to get Gabbert a tag team partner. South Carolina's Alshon Jeffery hasn't declared for the draft yet but, if he does, he'd be the perfect Calvin Johnson to Gabbert's Matt Stafford and could be available when the team goes on the clock.

The Man For The Job: Panthers Offensive Coordinator Rob Chudzinski - The man who gets this job should be someone who can groom Gabbert into being the star that the Jags thought he would be when Jacksonville used the 10th pick in the draft on him last year. That may be why the Jaguars' top three candidates are all offensive-minded guys. The Patriots' Bill O'Brien and the Jets' Kurt Schottenheimer are atop the list along with Chudzinski for the Jags' head coaching job. Chudzinski makes a ton of sense because he took an offense that was hard to watch last year and molded it into the 5th best scoring offense in the league while turning eventual Rookie of the Year Cam Newton into an instant superstar. Gabbert may not possess all of Newton's talents but he obviously had enough potential that even Carolina was considering him with the top pick before settling on Newton. With some improvements to the recieving core along with Chudzinski's tutelage of Gabbert and the continued production from MoJo, the Jags could be a scary offense next year and that, combined with their underrated defense, could make them a player in a wide open AFC South next year.

Kansas City Chiefs(7-9)

2010 Head Coach: Todd Haley/Romeo Crennel

What Needs To Be Fixed: Unless the team hires God as its coach, nobody is going to be able to fix this team's biggest problem: injuries. Within the first three weeks of the season, the team lost its star RB in Jamaal Charles, its best safety in Eric Berry and its top tight end in Tony Moeaki to season-ending injuries. By Thanksgiving, QB Matt Cassel was on the injured reserve and the biggest contributors to the Chiefs' late-season success were Kyle Orton(picked up off waivers from Denver) and kicker Ryan Succop. Still, the team can't rely on getting back all of its stars next season. The team needs to find a way to shore up the 26th ranked run defense as well as find a pass rusher to take pressure off Pro Bowl LB Tamba Hali. Kansas City also needs to figure out who will be their signal caller in 2012 with Orton a free agent and Cassel underwhelming in his first couple of years in Arrowhead.

Reasons For Hope: It says something about this team's talent(as well as the weakness of the division) that they finished a game out of first despite a majority of their best players on the sidelines. Romeo Crennel led a smothering defense after taking over for Todd Haley and that was on full display in the team's huge upset of the Green Bay Packers a few weeks ago. With Charles, Berry and Cassel(possibly) back in the fold next year, it's hard not to like KC's chances of winning the division for the second time in three years next year.

The Man For The Job: Ex-Ravens head coach Brian Billick - Billick rode the coattails of the late 90's Randy Moss/Cris Carter Vikings teams as Minnesota's offensive coordinator to bill himself as a offensive genius and parlayed that billing into a head coaching job with the Ravens. Once with Baltimore, Billick rode the coattails of arguably the best defense this generation has ever seen to win himself a Super Bowl in 2000. Truth be told, Romeo Crennel deserves to keep this job but, even with how the team responded this year, it's hard to look past Crennel's failure as the head coach in Cleveland. With Billick, the team would get a seasoned coach with alleged offensive genius that he could dispose on a team whose offense features one of the game's best dual-threat backs in Charles as well as a underrated wideout trio in Dwayne Bowe, Jon Baldwin and Steve Breaston. You'd like to see a scenario where Crennel returns to coach the defense but it might be farfetched for a man to go back to his old role after having a taste as the lead dog and then watching that job go to someone else. The first order of business for Billick or whomever is figuring out whether it wants to give Cassel another chance to be this team's franchise QB or look elsewhere. Oklahoma QB Landry Jones is a name that has been linked to the Chiefs or the team could try the free agent market once again with a guy like Matt Flynn or perhaps making a move(as has been rumored) for Peyton Manning. A trade for Manning might be unlikely but, if it happens, his presence on this young team makes them instant Super Bowl contenders and would give Billick yet another star to ride for his own personal gain.

NOT AVAILABLE.....BUT SHOULD BE

San Diego Chargers(8-8)

2010 Head Coach: Norv Turner

What Needs To Be Fixed: The defense failed San Diego this year, giving an average of 22 points per game while finishing 13th against the pass and 20th against the run. Years of letting key guys like Jamal Williams and Shawne Merriman go and replacing them with unproductive parts like Larry English and Corey Liuget came back to haunt the Chargers this year and led them to yet another disappointing season without the playoffs. The running game fell apart down the stretch, too. Second-year back Ryan Mathews had a decent bounceback year, with 1,061 yards and 6 touchdowns but couldn't shake the injury bug for the second year in a row. Backup Mike Tolbert didn't do much to spell Mathews either, leading the Chargers to 16th rushing attack. Making matters worse, former Bolt Darren Sproles was allowed to walk and had a career year with the Saints.

Reasons For Hope: As much as I disagree with Turner and GM A.J. Smith being allowed to stay, you can't argue with Turner's results on offense. Phillip Rivers had yet another productive season and the team got the numbers out of Vincent Jackson that it hoped to get last year when the receiver held out for most of the regular season. The trio of Rivers, Mathews and Jackson along with TE Antonio Gates and WR Malcolm Floyd give the Chargers one of the most talented offenses in the league. With that said, any hope for this Chargers team is somewhat muffled by the presence of Turner, who has squandered opportunity after opportunity since taking over for Marty Schottenheimer. It amazes me that Schottenheimer couldn't survive a 14-2 season but Turner can keep his job after missing the playoffs for the second year in a row. The same goes for Smith, who hasn't hit on a draft pick in years and continues to look foolish every time a player leaves San Diego and does better in a different place. If anything, watching Drew Brees set the single-season passing record this season for the Saints should have been enough to get Smith canned(You know, since watching Brees win a Super Bowl wasn't enough).

The Man For The Job: Ex-Bucs head coach Jon Gruden - My reasoning behind this isn't even that I want Gruden out of the Monday Night Football booth, though I'd be lying if that wasn't part of it. Has there been a more perfect situation for Chucky than this Chargers team? Think about it. Gruden excels at benefiting from coming into situations with ready-made teams that he doesn't have to do much tinkering to. He's like the guy who inherits the defending champion in a keeper league because the previous owner moved away. Anyone who has listened to Gruden drool over Rivers during the MNF broadcasts knows he'd jump at the chance to leave the booth and coach the Chargers. Of course, Gruden doesn't really help a slumping defense, which is what the Chargers really need, but it's clearly going to take someone with some legit pedigree to oust Turner from this job. So, unless Bill Cowher wants the job, Gruden makes a ton of sense. Gruden would be able to fill two roles, since he wouldn't take the job unless he could build the team, too, which spares Chargers fans from Smith's horrible drafting and replaces it with Chucky's slightly-less-dysmal drafting. It also gives Gruden the opportunity to stick it to the Raiders, though I imagine that desire no longer exists with Al Davis no longer with us.

Dallas Cowboys (8-8)

2010 Head Coach: Jason Garrett

What Needs To Be Fixed: The biggest detriment to Dallas' success has less to do with who is coaching the team and more to do with who owns them. Jerry Jones has hamstrung his Cowboys with foolish trades(the Roy Williams deal, for one), bad free agent spending(The T.O. catastrophe) and even more horrid drafting(Felix Jones over Chris Johnson, anyone?). Now, you obviously can't fire the owner but the Cowboys' best years came when they had someone with a strong enough personality to tell Jerry Jones to keep his biodegradable face out of the War Room(Bill Parcells, Jimmy Johnson, Barry Switzer). Whoever gets the job(once it comes available) will have to do something with this secondary, since not even Rob Ryan could. The Cowboys' pass defense was an opposing quarterback's dream, and that's even with a nightmare like DeMarcus Ware wreaking havoc. This Cowboys defensive unit doesn't cover, doesn't hit and, beyond Ware, doesn't pressure the QB. On offense, the team got a steal in RB DeMarco Murray but he has to prove he can stay healthy since we know Felix Jones can't. The same has to be said for Tony Romo, who has to shake off the injury bug as well as his trademark late-game jitters. Romo's been the Cowboys' franchise QB for six years. He's produced ONE playoff win. At some point, he's either the answer or the problem and Jones is clearly too wrapped up in his Romo love to decide.

Reasons For Hope: The Cowboys have some nice pieces left over from the Parcells era: Romo, Miles Austin, Jason Witten, Ware, Terrance Newman(though his best days might be behind him), Mike Jenkins(same). Even Jones has managed to snag a couple good pieces in Murray, WR Dez Bryant and OT Tyron Smith. The Cowboys are built to contend, but for some reason, they can't get over the hump. In previous years, it was blamed on Wade Phillips' passive aggressiveness. The last couple years, the blame was put on Garrett's playcalling. Whatever it is that's holding Dallas back, it's the job of Jones to find it and fix it.....even if it means pulling himself away and allowing someone more accomplished to take the reins.

The Man For The Job: Ex=Steelers head coach Bill Cowher - Sorry, Steeler fans, but this may be inevitable. The Cowboys lack leadership and need someone who isn't afraid to crack some heads and get in his players' faces and there's nothing more intimidating than the burly chin and flying spittle of an angry Bill Cowher. Cowher brings a reputation from his time in Pittsburgh that Jones will have to respect and, while Cowher wasn't exactly the architect of those great Steeler teams, he knows how to build a winner. In Dallas, he'd already have his vaunted 3-4 scheme in place and the pieces to make it work. All Cowher would have to do is some fine-tuning. The Cowboys are also close enough to contention to lure Cowher out of retirement. A high profile job like this one requires a high profile coach and it requires a man's man who won't take any guff from the players or from Jones and maybe, just maybe, he might even convince Romo to grow a pair.

Philadelphia Eagles(8-8)

2010 Head Coach: Andy Reid

What Needs To Be Fixed: Despite spending more than a decade in the same division as Dan Snyder, Andy Reid didn't get the memo that trying to build a championship team by throwing wads of cash at every top free agent out there doesn't work. Maybe the combination of all those egos wasn't the reason for Philly's undoing but the lack of production from their well-paid mercenaries was certianly the cause. Asante Samuel was so distraught over the Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie acquisitions that he went into the tank early. Meanwhile, Asomugha and Cromartie flopped in Year 1 as Eagles. As for the rest of the defense, the team never really picked up Juan Castillo's scheme and the run defense, long the Achilles' heel of these Eagles teams, was terrible yet again. On offense, the Eagles' fears of giving a long-term deal to Michael Vick were realized when Vick couldn't stay healthy behind a leaky offensive line. Vick missed just three games but was knocked out of a few more as his style of play combined with a lack of protection made him an easy target for defenses that knew the key to beating Philly was putting Vick on the sidelines.

Reasons For Hope: When Vick is healthy and able to stand upright, he leads an explosive offense. Obviously, the DeSean Jackson contract situation is a problem but if Jackson and the team can reach agreement on a new deal, he's one component to a deep offense that includes RB LeSean McCoy, TE Brent Celek and fellow WR Jeremy Maclin. The defense has its share of star power, too. Sameul's going to be a goner but you could do a lot worse than Cromartie and Asomugha as your starting corners. The Eagles have excellent bookends at defensive end in pass rushers Jason Babin and Trent Cole and some gerth inside in Cullen Jenkins and Mike Patterson.

The Man For The Job: Eagles offensive coordinator Marty Morninweg - At some point, Reid has to take the blame for this team's lack of success beyond a few playoff berths and some NFC Championship appearences. Reid squandered a decade of Donovan McNabb's prime and a great comeback from Mike Vick with his trademark bad clock management and inability to convert in short-yardage and red zone situations. The system works. Reid doesn't. Morninweg may have flopped in Detroit as the head coach but he also never had the amount of talent with the Lions that he does in Philadelphia. Like Jeff Fisher in Tennessee, Reid has worn out his welcome and needs to be held accountable for not being able to maintain the high level of success that this franchise once had in previous years. By giving the spot to Morninweg, you aren't forcing Vick to have to learn a new offense after he's finally come along as a pocket passer after years of trying to win games with his feet. It's time for the team to move on and Reid can't continue to float by pointing the fingers at inept coordinators. Morningweg is going to get a second chance somewhere thanks to his good work commandeering this Eagles offense, so why not in a place he's already familiar with?

Indianapolis Colts(2-14)

2010 Head Coach: Jim Caldwell

What Needs To Be Fixed: No matter how "shocked" Peyton Manning says he is over the Polians being fired this week, it was well-deserved. This franchise hasn't hit on a draft pick in years and its reliance on Manning to carry them was never more evident than this season. Obviously, the Colts had key injuries beyond Manning, as guys like Gary Brackett, Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis and Dallas Clark all missed time but it was the Polians' job to get this team some depth and they failed miserably. The defense finished near the bottom in every catagory besides pass defense(where they were 16th). The offense, sans Manning, also ranked at the bottom in every catagory. Now, the team not only has to deal with the potential departure of longtime Manning buddy Reggie Wayne, but possibly Manning himself, depending on #18's willingness to stick with the team after it drafts Andrew Luck in April with the #1 pick.

Reasons For Hope: Beyond the fact that they have the pleasure of choosing between Peyton Manning, arguably the greatest QB of all-time, and Andrew Luck, the greatest QB prospect in decades, to be their starting QB, there isn't much to be happy about. The team doesn't have a capable running back. The receiving core is decent, but is filled with guys who can't stay healthy from Austin Collie to Anthony Gonzalez to Dallas Clark. The defense doesn't have much behind Freeney, Mathis and Brackett(all three on the decline of their careers) and the offensive line is still a work in progress. As great as nabbing the top pick is for the franchise and being able to secure an heir apparent for Manning, Andrew Luck can't make the tackles for the defense or catch his own passes. Still, the team's picking first in every round of a deep draft and, if Manning is healthy and available to trade, the Colts could get a nice deal for him.

The Man For The Job: Bengals Defensive Coordinator Mike Zimmer - Zimmer isn't the sexiest of choices but he's a guy who has gone without a head coaching job for too long. If Manning stays, the need for an offensive-minded coach is no longer neccessary because Manning practically doubles as the offensive coordinator anyway. If Manning leaves, getting someone who can mentor a QB is going to be key even with Luck's smarts and ability to pick up an offense quick. Zimmer is the right call because this team's success came when the defense was up to par with Manning's offense. Zimmer worked wonders with a Bengals defense that had less big names than what's currently in Indy. With a good draft and some hard work, Zimmer could get the Colts back on track in a soft AFC South. Luck is a cornerstone piece and if Indy can swing Manning into something of value OR keep Manning and allow him to spearhead the offense while showing Luck the ropes, that's a hell of a start for this franchise. As for Caldwell, he'll get a pass this year because it wasn't his fault that his best player went down and the guys in charge of building a team couldn't do their job but Caldwell hasn't shown me much to think he's nothing more than a lame duck. The team needs an identity on defense to go along with the identity it will eventually have on offense with either Manning or Luck.

Minnesota Vikings(3-13)

2010 Head Coach: Leslie Frazier

What Needs To Be Fixed: Truth be told, I thought Frazier was fired weeks ago. I was certain of it because I couldn't think of a legit reason why he wouldn't be following this season. The Vikings started off the year blowing double-digit leads every game in the opening month. How does one survive that? It wasn't until I didn't hear any talk of a Minnesota opening that I had to Google to see if Frazier still had a job. Either way, the Vikings have some work to do. For starters, a offensive line that gave up 49 sacks needs to be revamped. As much of a knucklehead as Bryant McKinnie might have been, he looks like Anthony Munoz compared to the guys they have on that line. The line is so bad that you forget Pro Bowl G Steve Hutchinson is even on it. Making matters worse, we may have seen the last of Adrian Peterson as an upper echelon running back. Name me a running back who was ever the same from a torn ACL and MCL. Willis McGahee wasn't the same after blowing out his knee in the Fiesta Bowl. Neither was Jamal Lewis. Wes Welker bounced back but he's also not a RB. Behind AP, there's Toby Gerhart, so there might as well be nobody at all. Even if Peterson has an amazing recovery from this injury, the team should invest in a backup plan. The receiving core needs work, too. Percy Harvin emerged as a solid wideout but he's oft-injured. Beyond him, there isn't much. The team was smart to not re-sign Sidney Rice but not smart in failing to find a replacement. On defense, the secondary needs some an infusion of talent to complement of very good front seven.

Reasons For Hope: I really like Christian Ponder and I even think Joe Webb is a decent backup/trade piece because he's athletic with a strong arm and could be an ok starter for the right team. Ponder reminds me of a young Aaron Rodgers: smart, mobile, good arm, accurate. He just needs protection and someone to throw to beyond Harvin. The Peterson injury is a huge kick to the nuts but he'll bounce back eventually and you can find RB's anywhere in this league(albeit none as great as Adrian Peterson, but ones that are serviceable. Ryan Grant comes to mind). The team is also picking 3rd in the draft and, with Luck and Griffin expected to be the first two picks off the board, they'll have their choice of any other position player they want. The team could go wideout with Alshon Jeffery or Justin Blackmon or finally replace McKinnie with a solid left tackle like USC's Matt Kalil or Stanford's John Martin. Defensively, the line is a bit old in the middle but has one of the game's best ends in Jared Allen. The linebacking crew is solid led by Chad Greenway and E.J. Henderson.

The Man For The Job: Former Rams head coach/ex-Bears and Lions offensive coordinator Mike Martz - Christian Ponder is just the brain to run this intricate Martz offense. Granted, the team doesn't quite have the receiver depth to pull it off but Harvin's speed and playmaking ability is a good start. My intial choice was Marty Schottenheimer because we need Martyball back in the NFL after the Chargers foolishly canned him but it's hard to co-sign a guy with a history for running his backs ragged taking over a team whose best player is coming off a blown knee. Martz may have not exactly shook up the world as a coordinator for Detroit and Chicago but he wasn't exactly awful either. By getting a second chance to be a head coach, he'll get extract revenge on the two teams that jettisoned him by facing them twice a year and he'll have the benefit of already having his franchise QB in-house(whereas some of these other teams are still looking). Martz may be a Grade A douchebag but there's no denying what he brings to an offense. When Peterson comes back, Martz will have just the recipe in bringing him along slowly, having dealt with something similar when Marshall Faulk had his knee troubles in St. Louis. If Minnesota is going to compete in the NFC North, it's going to have to outgun teams like Detroit and Green Bay(and even Chicago), Martz is just the guy to show them how to do that.

THE REX RYAN PORTION OF THE SHOW

I very rarely find myself on the fence on certian topics, but when it comes to whether Rex Ryan should still be the head coach of the New York Jets, I find myself torn. On the one hand, Ryan has turned the Jets into one of the best defensive units and the team's woes on offense can be more accurately traced to offensive coordinator Kurt Schottenheimer and QB Mark Sanchez. After all, Ryan can't be held accountable for failing to turn Gang Green into The Greatest Show On Turf. Ryan CAN be held accountable for bogging this team down with unneccesary pressure with his countless predictions and bulletin board quotes. In New York, it doesn't take much to be back page fodder and Ryan has done his best to keep Big Apple scribes in business by giving them headline-worthy content. It's natural for a coach to have faith in his team, but after three years of not backing up the big talk, you have to be held accountable. The Jets, on paper, have the talent to dominate the AFC. Not just the AFC East. But the entire conference. The defense has done their part and the team will probably bid adieu to Schottenheimer, either by firing him or because he'll find work elsewhere. However, that puts more pressure on Ryan in Year 4. As the leader of the pack, it's his job to make sure Sanchez becomes a viable starting QB. It's his job to keep a guy like Santonio Holmes from quitting on him. It's his job to put his finger on the pulse of whatever's holding this team back from its lofty expectations. The case can be made for Ryan getting canned because guys have been fired for less. However, I think Ryan deserves one more shot. With a new offense and new hunger, Ryan HAS to produce next season. If not, his big mouth will be running from behind a desk on a pregame show and not on a dais in the Meadowlands.