Monday, June 7, 2010

Is It Football Season Yet?

With the baseball season is still in wait-and-see mode, at least until August, my boycott of the NBA Finals and the fact that I'm still getting reacquainted with the NHL, what do you say we talk some fantasy football?

Fantasy football leagues are already starting to open up, despite the fact that it's only June and we're still three months away from the first meaningful game of the season. Still, there are some people in the world who spend down time doing fantasy football mock drafts in the early summer. By some people, I mean, me. (I've done 8 already and I'm signed up for two leagues. It's a sickness. Don't judge me.) Last year, around this time, I went position by position and gave you who I thought was overrated and underrated. Some of them, I got right(Michael Turner proved unworthy of the #2 spot, Ray Rice proved worthy of underrated status, Antonio Bryant flopped). Some of them were wrong (Romo didn't suck, Torry Holt was a bust). Despite that iffy track record, I'm back at it again this year. So, here's an early look at this year's underrated and overrated fantasy football picks:

QUARTERBACK:

Underrated: Chad Henne(Dolphins)/Alex Smith(49ers) - I couldn't separate the two. Look, I'm not saying you should draft both as starters and, obviously, you're not going to want to play Henne when Miami faces the Jets, but as bye week spot starters? You could do worse. Plus, they could be steals for where you get them(if they even get drafted at all). Henne gets a huge boost with Brandon Marshall coming to town. Yes, Marshall's a headcase of Ron Artest proportions and he IS coming off hip surgery. He's also had 100+ receptions in each of the last three seasons, including last year when he had 101 catches and 10 TDs with Kyle Orton at QB(also a sleeper pick from last year). Henne has a good offensive line and he'll get to feast on the lowly Bills twice this season.

As for Smith, the Niners gave him the ultimate vote of confidence by spending two first round picks on the offensive line. They also went out and got Henne's former top target, Ted Ginn Jr, to pair with last year's much-talked-about rookie Michael Crabtree. This year, Crabtree will play the whole season and Ginn can settle in to his more natural role as a #2 receiver. Oh, and Smith also has a guy named Vernon Davis, who broke out like acne with 13 TDs last season. The Niners also play in a division with the lowly Rams, the still-rebuilding Seahawks and a Cardinals team that gave up nearly 100 points in its final two games....and that was BEFORE they lost Karlos Dansby and Antrel Rolle.

Overrated: Tom Brady(Patriots) - I'm avoiding Tom Terrific at all costs this year. Why? Well, for one, there's the uncertainty of his favorite target, WR Wes Welker(who blew out his knee in a meaningless Week 17 start). That leaves Brady with no proven option besides the always-aloof Randy Moss. There's my continued lack of faith in Brady's offensive line as well as Brady's newfound happy feet when Brady sees the rush coming. You don't get points in fantasy football for whining for roughing the passer calls. If you did, Brady's a top pick. Then, there's Brady's schedule. He gets two games a piece against the always defensively tough Dolphins and Jets, as well as games against Baltimore, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Minnesota and Green Bay. Um...yikes. Look, I'm not saying Brady is undraftable, but he's definitely not in my Top 3(Brees, Rodgers, Manning) and I would probably not put him in the Top 5(I like Rivers and Schaub more). You can wait on a QB this year, and that third round pick you would use on Brady can net you someone more worthwhile like a Calvin Johnson or Rashard Mendenhall.

RUNNING BACK:

Underrated: Ryan Mathews(San Diego) - The buzz around Chargers rookie Ryan Mathews has increased so much over the last few weeks that you can't even consider him a sleeper anymore. I've seen Mathews go as high as Round 2(which is a bit high for a rookie stepping into some big shoes in replacing LT). The fact of the matter is, Norv Turner has been very vocal about the fact that his new toy will be getting around 300 touches this year(250 carries, 50 catches). In a league filled with running back committees, Mathews can be fantasy gold. Yes, Darren Sproles is still there to syphon some of Mathews' work, but not enough to seriously hinder the former Fresno St. workhorse. If you're in a league with people who aren't up on their rookies, Mathews is a nice sleeper if he falls. He may even be worth reaching for, given the lack of true workhorse backs.

Overrated: Chris Johnson (Tennessee) - Yeah, I said it. OV-ER-RA-TED! Since Jamal Anderson tore his ACL in his first game following his breakout '98 season and after holding out for a new deal all camp, I've always been leery of taking guys who are training camp holdouts. It's like karma bites them in the ass for being greedy. Yes, CJ had a fantastic season last year. That doesn't mean he's rushing for 2,000 yards again this year(remember Jamal Lewis' post 2000 yard season?). Yes, LenDale White is no longer there to take carries away from him. That just means Johnson's getting exposed to more punishment and defenses are going to be coming after him even harder with the Titans lacking a passing game. Like with Brady, I'm not saying Johnson shouldn't be drafted....but #1 overall? There's alot of potential for disaster there. I'd even be worried about taking him 2nd. Personally, I like Maurice Jones-Drew the most of the top backs(Yes, AP included), but maybe that's just me.

Underrated: Marion Barber(Cowboys) - "The Barbarian" has fell off the face of the Earth, which is downright perplexing. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has made it known that fellow Arkansas alum Felix Jones will be the starter at RB, and that sent Barber fans into a worried frenzy. Why? Barber's the most feared back inside the 20s not named Brandon Jacobs. Even if he plays second fiddle to "The Cat", he's still going to feast on goal-line carries. Plus, you may already know this but, Felix Jones isn't the most durable of guys. Barber's also slimmed down to give himself more speed. A power runner with extra burst determined to prove himself to not only his own team but to other potential suitors? Where do I sign up?

Overrated: Jamaal Charles(Chiefs) - I loved Jamaal Charles last year after taking over the starting gig following Larry Johnson's release. This year? Not so much. For one, the Chiefs did nothing to improve their putrid offensive line. Secondly, there's the presence of still-capable free-agent acquisition Thomas Jones. Third, Charles is a bit fumble-prone. If Charles was in charge on his lonesome, I'd totally co-sign him as a Top 10 RB, but with TJ in town? There are guys I like a little more(Ryan Grant, Rashard Mendenhall, even Mathews). Another guy I'm not high on? Beanie Wells. The offense is taking a step back with Matt Leinart at QB and Anquan Boldin now in Baltimore. On top of that, Wells still has Tim Hightower on his heels. He's a good flex option but he scares me as a #2.

WIDE RECIEVER

Underrated: Malcom Kelly (Redskins) - With new QB Donovan McNabb now in the fold and some improvement to what was a horrible offensive line as well as the presence of Mike Shanahan and sons to the coaching staff, the Redskins' passing game should be improved. Malcolm Kelly didn't see much action last year and his numbers, obviously, suffered for it. That can be attributed to the incompetence of QB Jason Campbell and ex-coach Jim Zorn as well as the offensive line not giving Campbell time to throw. This year, top wideout Santana Moss is poised to catch a bullet on a steroid beef and may be lost for four games. Fellow third-year wideout Devin Thomas has been slowed by a bad hammy. That opens the door for Kelly who, at the very least, would be a red zone option for McNabb given his size (6'4, 227lbs). McNabb's presence will probably improve Moss the most because his skill set rivals that of McNabb's former target DeSean Jackson, but if Kelly beats out Thomas in camp, he's worth a late-round flier.

Overrated: Reggie Wayne (Colts) - As I said with Chris Johnson, holdouts make me nervous(Andre Johnson's contract dispute worries me, too.). Reports say that Wayne's holdout in Indy won't go into training camp, but everything coming out of Wayne's mouth suggests he's determined to get paid. That type of unhappiness is bound to be unsettling, especially since Wayne's QB, Peyton Manning, is also in line for a new deal and will certainly be a higher priority. Eventually, I think the beef will be squashed but not before it becomes a distraction. Remember, the Colts aren't bending on these negotiations and they proved last year that they can win with Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. Plus, Wayne's going to be 32 this season. There's some mileage on those legs. Wayne will put up solid numbers once he's in camp and playing, but I'd rather have other guys such as.......

Underrated: Calvin Johnson (Lions) - .....this guy. Since college, I've been a fan of the man known as "Megatron". Last year was supposed to be his coming out party, but injuries turned that into huge disappointment. Even with a tricky knee as well as other ailments AND the presence of a rookie QB, Johnson still nearly hit 1,000 yards. Could he be better in 2010? He damn well better be. When Johnson's right, there isn't a more freakish athlete at wideout(that includes Andre 3000 and Randy Moss) and my money is on Megatron being the offensive havoc-wreaker we all thought he'd be last year. His lackluster numbers will probably drop him down draft boards as nobody wants to get burnt by yet another disappointing year, but that will only make taking Johnson that much more of a steal.

Overrated: Hines Ward (Steelers) - Let's see....his star quarterback will be sitting out the first four games. He's 34, and second-year wideout Mike Wallace is much more explosive. Plus, given the instability at QB and the rustiness that Big Ben will have when he comes back, the Steelers might be more of a running team the first half of the season. Also, despite his mind-boggling durability and consistency, you have to wonder when all of the ill will opposing defenses have against Ward will come back to haunt him. I think this is the year that teams pay Ward back for a career of dirty play.

TIGHT END

Underrated: Jermichael Finley (Packers) - You really didn't think I was going to go a whole column without slurping my boys, did you? Finley came on last season, showing off his suction-cup hands and his freakish athleticism. He had four TDs in his final five regular season games. Look, I'd like to think the Packers' offensive line is going to better this year (It would be hard for it to be worse), but that's something I'll have to see to believe. With Finley emerging as a reliable target last year and Rodgers possibly running for his life once again, A-Rod may try to play it safe and look to his tight end instead of heaving it down field. Finley's currently rated sixth on ESPN's list, behind Tony Gonzalez and Brent Celek. I say Finley outplays BOTH of those guys and comes close to Vernon Davis' numbers last year.

Overrated: Visanthe Shiancoe (Vikings) - We all know Brett Favre's coming back again, so the potential for Shiancoe to mirror last year's 11 TDs is there. I'm just not ready to buy into it. Favre still has Sidney Rice, Bernard Berrian and Percy Harvin at receiver who he's now more familiar with, and we all know "The Riverboat Gambler" loves throwing downfield. On top of that, whether you believe the feud with Darren Sharper is bullshit or not, you have to think that between his breakout season and the controversy with Sharper, that he's not catching people by surprise this year. Obviously, you weren't taking him before the top 5 tight ends anyway, but I think you can find another Shiancoe in the making later in the draft rather than take a chance that karma doesn't come back to nail Shiancoe under the chin straps.

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