- Adapted version of Thetis' speech in the movie Troy, as if told to LeBron James.
Thursday starts the saga some have waited years to see unfold. Thursday is the day the true courting of LeBron James and the other members of what I will call "The Mercenary Six" (Carlos Boozer, Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade, Amare Stoudemire, and Joe Johnson) begins. While the futures of the other five are headline-worthy in their own right, Free Agency 2010 starts and ends with where the man known as "King James" ends up. We've heard day after day that he's leaning here or leaning there. There's been months of roster-shuffling and money-shifting. There's all of these reports about LeBron's character, his personality, and all these quotes and inside sources from people claiming to know LeBron's intentions but are mostly only looking out for their own interests. Writers, bloggers, reporters, and fans alike are fighting to be the one who gets the first scoop on LeBron as if they were staking out right field waiting on Roger Maris' 61st home run.
LeBron's decision comes down to what kind of message he wants to send to fans both in Cleveland and outside of it with his newest career move. Will he choose to be loyal to his hometown, the town that has had his back since he was just a mere high school prodigy? We've heard for years about LeBron's infamous loyalty. Will that be on display in these next coming weeks? Or will LeBron finally decide that enough is enough and chase greener pastures and more worthwhile accomplishments outside of Ohio? It's the question that's been asked for two years and, while everybody and their mother has spent the opening days of this summer doing their best campaign pitch, we know that the true contenders for "The Akron Hammer" are a small, chosen few. So, here's a list of contenders, the message LeBron sends by signing with them, and what "The King" can expect if he decides to dot the I's and cross the T's.
THE FAB FOUR
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Message LeBron Would Be Sending: He's loyal.
What He Can Expect: For a team that can ill-afford to lose the biggest star the city of Cleveland has seen since Jim Brown, the Cavs don't seem like a team that understands the severity of losing their franchise player. For one, unlike teams like New Jersey and Chicago(the other big contenders in the LeBron Sweepstakes), the Cavs don't have a coach OR a GM right now. Maybe those are spaces they feel like they can fill after LeBron's signed, sealed and delivered since no respectable coach or GM is going to come to Cleveland if the team has to rebuild post-LeBron. Still, that kind of uncertainty doesn't exactly help their chances of keeping LeBron. Right now, the dream scenario from a coach/GM standpoint is luring Phil Jackson away from L.A. and hiring recently-fired Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard. Phil Jackson is the best of the possible candidates and probably the only one that will convince LeBron that Cleveland is serious about winning titles. You aren't getting LeBron with Byron Scott or Brian Shaw or Jeff Van Gundy as your head coach...especially when Chicago hired the league's hottest coaching prospect in Tom Thibodeau. Pritchard, meanwhile, helped rebuild Portland from "The Jailblazers" to a legit contender in the much-tougher West. He's a significant upgrade over anyone Cleveland's had since 2003.
Plus, as sad as this might be, the Cavs may actually be WORSE than they were following their elimination at the hands of Boston. Shaq is gone. Big Z is probably gone. I don't see a team giving up anything legitimate for Mo Williams and/or Delonte West and the playoffs exposed Antawn Jamison as a bad fit as LeBron's #2. On top of that, Jamison plays the same position as Chris Bosh, who has pretty much said his first choice is to go where LeBron goes. I hate to break it to you, Cleveland, but your city isn't exactly a hot bed for potential free agents. You think Bosh is passing up South Beach or Times Square to play in a rust bucket town like Cleveland?(Side rant: I don't feel too bad for Cavs fans if and when LeBron leaves. Yes, this is a stomach punch the city doesn't need but let's face facts, most Cavs "fans" were merely LeBron fans. 90% of them will root for whoever LeBron plays for and the other 10% will either stop caring about basketball or kill themselves. I don't feel sorry for a fan base that's only interest in basketball was hitching its wagon to LeBron James.)
Likelihood of LeBron signing: 20-1
New York Knicks
The Message LeBron Would Be Sending: He wants to be a global superstar.
What He Can Expect: It would risky for LeBron to go from the pressure of winning a title in a small market like Cleveland to the heightened expectations of the Big Apple. By signing in New York, LeBron will be attempting to become the Jay-Z of the NBA: a star who is not only interested in being the best at his craft, but becoming a worldwide entity. New York offers LeBron the chance to be a household name in places that probably have never seen a basketball. It's the biggest sports market in America. It also gives LeBron the worst chance of the top four contenders to win a title. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, Knicks fans, but your team sucks. David Lee is your best player and he has one foot out of the door. Even if you turn Lee into Chris Bosh, it's a two-man show. The ghost of Isiah Thomas(as I mentioned in the draft review) haunts this team. The bad trades, horrible contracts, terrible draft picks(both made and traded away) has turned this team into a high-profile cellar dweller. LeBron only signs here if he decides to say "I'll give up being the game's greatest winner in exchange for being a Michael Jordan-like endorsement whore". That's the only reason he comes to MSG. Do you really see LeBron winning a title with a starting five of himself, Bosh, Eddy Curry, Toney Douglas and Danilo Gallinari? You think LeBron finds that enticing after spending the last 8 years carrying the Cavs on his back? Get real.
Chances of LeBron signing: 10-1
Chicago Bulls
The Message LeBron Would Be Sending: He wants to rebuild the Bulls dynasty.
What He Can Expect: Critics keep using "MJ's shadow" as a reason LeBron will steer clear of the Windy City. If that's your best excuse, then you don't have an excuse. LeBron has been groomed to be "Like Mike" since he picked up a basketball. He wore the #23 his entire career for Christ's sake! If LeBron was put off by being in Jordan's shadow, he wouldn't have waited until now to change his number to 6. The fact is, with their recent maneuvering, the hiring of Tom Thibodeau, and the presence of point guard Derrick Rose and forwards Joakim Noah and Luol Deng(assuming they aren't dealt in exchange for Bosh in a sign and trade) make the Bulls the most enticing offer for King James. There are reports that LeBron's already leaning towards Chicago, and really, the only way he passes this up is if the Bulls suits does something to piss him off or he gets absolutely wowed somewhere else. Chicago, as much as it pains me to say it, makes the most sense for LeBron is he's as determined to be a champion as we are lead to believe. Thibodeau's focus on defense is right in LeBron's wheelhouse. The only real drawback to the Chicago scenario is that both LeBron and Rose are ball-dominant and, while Rose is the type of guard that makes his teammates better, it remains to be seen if a young star-in-the-making like Rose would be willing to take a backseat to a guy like LeBron. Regardless, many insiders seem to believe the Bulls are a James Johnson trade away(or a Deng trade away) from getting a guy like Bosh or Joe Johnson to come join LeBron(or some combination of "The Mercenary Six") to come to "The House That MJ Built" and, if or when that happens, Chicago becomes the team to beat over the next 5-6 years.
Likelihood of LeBron Signing: 3-1
New Jersey/Brooklyn Nets
The Message LeBron Sends By Signing: He's loyal.....to his buddy Jay-Z.
What He Can Expect: The Nets, in my opinion, are in a better position than the Knicks to get LeBron. They have an aggressive new owner in Mikhail Prokhorov. They have two decent All-Star quality young pieces in guard Devin Harris(if he isn't traded) and center Brook Lopez. They have another potential star in 3rd overall pick Derrick Favors and they have cap room to add LeBron plus one. Also, unlike the Knicks, the Nets haven't mortgaged the next couple year's worth of draft picks in foolish trades(Knicks gave Houston a first in 2012 and offered to swap in 2011, for the rights to free up some cap space). A Lopez-Favors-LeBron-Joe Johnson-Harris starting five may not be as good as what Chicago can offer but definitely bests what Cleveland and New York have. Plus, while he'll spend a year or two in the Garden State, eventually he'll be moving to Brooklyn and hitching his wagon to Jay-Z and becoming the type of Roc-A-Fella star Jay tried to make with Memphis Bleek and Amil. So he gets to play in a big market AND become a marketing piece with a proven brand. The catch is that he'll be playing for Avery Johnson, who is not nearly the big time coach that many make him out to be.
Likelihood of LeBron Signing: 12-1
THE LONGSHOTS
Miami Heat
The Message LeBron Would Be Sending: He's OK with taking a backseat in exchange for a title.
What He Can Expect: Somehow, people have it in their head that, if Miami can move Michael Beasley, the Heat will have room for three of "The Mercenary Six". If that's true and the Heat can finagle a Bosh-Wade-LeBron trifecta, then Miami becomes the belle of the ball in the NBA and the next 5 or 6 titles go through South Beach. The problem for LeBron will be the detractors who will say he needed to piggyback D-Wade to put rings on his finger. Does LeBron really want his legacy to be the Pippen to Flash's MJ? LeBron was groomed to be the most dominant force the NBA has ever seen. By signing with Miami, he's basically admitting that he can't lead a team to the promised land and that years of hype as "The Chosen One" was nothing more than exactly that: hype. Still, winning inevitably erases all the negativity that surrounds a big star(Right, Kobe?) and if LeBron wins a few rings and helps build a dynasty in Miami, that's a hell of a lot better than trying to be his own man and failing miserably in Cleveland and New York. Still it comes down to a matter of pride and I just can't see LeBron, at 25, admitting that he can't spear-head a championship team.
Likelihood of LeBron Signing: 30-1
Los Angeles Clippers:
The Message LeBron Would Be Sending: He's desperate.
What He Can Expect: A blown ACL or two......just kidding....sort of. I've never been one for curses or bad omens but clearly karma comes around every so often to roshambo the Clippers. We saw it with Blake Griffin last year. This team just can't win for losing. L.A. would be the kind of big market that would pique LeBron's interest, but he would a. be sharing an arena with Kobe Bryant(who has five rings and is in position for a couple more) and b. would be accepting huge money from a well-publicized racist in owner Donald Sterling. That's a public relations nightmare for LeBron(although, if bashing Rihanna's face in didn't keep Chris Brown from a performance at the BET Awards, then I can't see how linking up with the NBA's David Duke will kill LeBron's credibility). Still, a Kaman-Griffin-LeBron-Eric Gordon-Baron Davis starting five with 2010 rookie Al-Farouq Aminu and DeAndre Jordan off the bench is a respectable team, if they can get the right guys in the front office and on the sidelines and manage to avoid the black cloud that has surrounded this team for decades, then this becomes a solid location even with Kobe as a roommate. LeBron, however, doesn't seem like a guy who would take money from a scrupulous dirtbag like Sterling just for the sake of getting paid and, eventhough Sterling is certain he'll land LeBron, I'd say LeBron has as much of a chance of coming to L.A. as Biggie's casket.
Likelihood of LeBron Signing: 50-1
Dallas Mavericks
The Message LeBron Would Be Sending: He wants to get PAID.
What He Can Expect: LeBron's arrival in Dallas would require a sign-and-trade, which means the Mavs will have to part with the likes of Erick Dampier, Caron Butler and highly-touted point guard Rodrigue Beaubois. That still leaves Dallas with Brendan Haywood, Dirk(who opted out, but will probably re-sign if LeBron comes. Although, if Dirk looks like he's testing the market, this immediately becomes a huge story in and of itself), Jason Terry and Jason Kidd's corpse. Now, Mark Cuban can sell the Mavs better than any owner or marketer can sell anything, but it would be a hard sell that a team led by Dirk and Kidd(one, a playoff choke artist, the other a choke artist of the domestic abuse variety.......oh, and an aging point guard without a jumper to speak of) can give LeBron the kind of supporting cast required to build a dynasty. Nowitzki, in his best season, couldn't get out of the first round and was at the forefront of a Mavs team that choked away the NBA championship to D-Wade's Heat. Kidd, meanwhile, has made a career of coming up short and, even in his prime, couldn't pry a championship from the Lakers and Spurs, respectively, while with the Nets. Plus, Kidd is an infamous coach killer. His presence almost guarantees front office uncertainty. You really want LeBron around that kind of environment? The plus side is there's no sales tax in Texas, making that extra $30 mil LeBron would make in a sign-and-trade that much sweeter, but if wealth is LeBron's ultimate goal, he can certainly make his share of coin in New York.
Likelihood of LeBron Signing(or agreeing to a sign-and-trade): 40-1
Boston Celtics
The Message LeBron Would Be Sending: If he can't beat 'em, he'll join 'em.
What He Can Expect: It's the scenario that doesn't get much talk but should. With Rasheed Wallace retiring, Ray Allen a free agent, and Paul Pierce eligible to opt out, the C's can, theoretically, wave bye-bye to those three and go hard after LeBron and pair him with the NBA's newest rising star, Rajon Rondo, and the rotting cadaver known as Kevin Garnett. No Pierce, 'Sheed, and Shuttlesworth sets "The Big Three" ablaze but Boston fans will let that go if it means getting a all-time great in his prime like LeBron. It makes sense for Boston, too. Allen is washed up. Pierce is getting there and Wallace is not playing another NBA game. You can trade in three over-30 year old marquee names for LeBron and midlevel free agent X. Plus, you can sell LeBron on being a part of the greatest NBA franchise in the history of the game, a legit team builder in GM Danny Ainge and a bonafide star in Rondo, who proved he can carry the team when the chips are down. KG might be finished but the presence of LeBron lightens the load for "The Big Ticket" and may add another year or two to those balding wheels. Also, KG's trademark midrange jumper will keep him out of the paint and allow LeBron to bulldoze his way to the basket(something James couldn't do with Shaq's large physique clogging the paint).
The key, of course, is Pierce opting out. With the new CBA bringing uncertainty, agents are trying to lock down big, long-term deals for their clients now instead of waiting til next year when money will be tighter. Pierce is represented by the same agent as Tyson Chandler and word on the street is Chandler is planning to opt out for that very reason: to get his money now, while he still can. If Dirk Nowitzki is willing to opt out of a good situation in Dallas, you can definitely tell that there is some unrest among the NBA's best players as to whether they can still get the kind of money they are accustomed to. If there's a dark horse in the LeBron sweepstakes, it's Boston: a team that managed to come within a few baskets of an improbable title run and has made an even more improbable transition from "The Big Three" to a young team led by Rondo. That transition, however, gets closer to reality by signing LeBron James.
Likelihood of LeBron Signing: 25-1
No comments:
Post a Comment