Thursday, September 8, 2011

AFC East Preview



1. New England Patriots

What I like: Tom Brady commandeers his deepest offense in years. With WRs Deion Branch and Wes Welker already in the fold, the team took a chance on ex-Bengals Pro Bowl wideout Chad Ochocinco. For all his bad press for being showboating attention hog, Ochocinco is also a fine route runner who knows he can't afford to mess up his best chance at a ring by getting too extra with his theatrics. On top of that trio, Brady has a pair of young TE's in Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, both of which are coming off strong rookie seasons. The Pats will go with a two-man running attack led by power back BenJarvus Green-Ellis and last year's crafty pickup Danny Woodhead. The plethora of weapons allows Brady to do what he does best: Spread the ball around and keep defenses guessing and the combo of Ellis and Woodhead will keep defenses honest. Defensively, the team took another big risk in adding volatile DT Albert Haynesworth. Haynesworth wasn't a fan of the 3-4 scheme while in Washington but his presence in New England would suggest the team will be using some 4-3 looks as well. To help with their pass defense woes, the team also added DEs Shaun Ellis and Andre Carter and drafted Virginia cover corner Ras-I Dowling. These additions plus Belichick's tinkering with the scheme switching between the 3-4 and 4-3 to confuse opposing offenses will improve a 30th ranked pass defense, as will the continued progression of youngsters like CB Devin McCourtey(team leader in INT's as a rookie last year) and S Pat Chung.

What I don't like: While the team used draft picks on offensive linemen such as Nate Solder and Marcus Cannon, the offensive line has still allowed Brady to take some hits in the preseason. Teams know the key to stopping New England's powerful offense is getting in Brady's face and wrapping him in the mouth to throw off his rhythm. That's why physical defenses like the Jets and Ravens and Steelers have been able to get the better of New England in years past. The team is also taking a decent risk both in hoping that all these new parts on defense will be productive and that infamous knuckleheads like Ochocinco and Haynesworth will be choir boys under Belichick. The Pats have managed to turn problem children like Corey Dillon and Randy Moss but also failed with guys like Brandon Meriwether and Brandon Tate, both of which were cut last week. The Patriots have succeeded with chemistry and a business-as-usual team mentality. Those seem to go against the mindsets of guys like Ochocinco and Haynesworth.

Bottom line: The retooling on offense and defense has made the Patriots the leaders in the clubhouse in the AFC. If Belichick can make worker bees out of his recently acquired divas, the depth on both sides of the ball will be too much for the rest of the league to handle. Beyond getting everyone in line, the team must also prove it can protect Brady as well as improve enough on defense to stop the other high-powered offenses in the conference. While Brady and company are good enough to win most shootouts, battling back and forth through the air makes Brady more susceptible to punishment. Punishment that the team can't afford its franchise face to take.

2. New York Jets

What I like: A year after trying to get a band of mercenaries together like a scene out of "The Expendables" in hopes of locking down a Super Bowl, the team was a bit less frivilous with their money. Gone are rent-a-players like Jason Taylor and Braylon Edwards. The team did, however, agree to bring back Santonio Holmes to give QB Mark Sanchez a big play home run threat and extended serial impregnater Antonio Cromartie to give Gang Green a superb cornerback tandem by pairing him with Darrelle Revis. The move that made the biggest splash was the signing of former Giant Plaxico Burress. Fresh off doing two years in the clink, Burress is set to be this year's Mike Vick and attempt to wow the world with a great comeback story. At the very least, Plax is a big body in the red zone, which gives the team more options beyond TE Dustin Keller and the running back duo of Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson. A couple of other fresh faces are rookies Muhammad Wilkerson and Kendrick Ellis, who have the task of replacing Shaun Ellis and Kris Jenkins on the defensive line. Wilkerson was unblockable at Temple but, as is the case with all rookies this year, he faces an uphill battle trying to learn a complex defense while being hampered by the lockout. The same goes for Ellis, who not only has to adjust coming from small-school dominance at Hampton to trying to carve a niche in the pros but also spent the offseason avoiding deportation after he was charged with aggravated assault while at Hampton. If the rooks can catch up quick, they will open things up for a talented linebacking core that features pass rushers Bryan Thomas and Calvin Pace on the outside and run stuffers Bart Scott and David Harris on the inside.

What I don't like: We know Rex Ryan can coach a defense but the offense remains suspect. QB Mark Sanchez has improved each year but a team with this much hype needs its franchise QB to take some giant strides in Year 3. For the offense to click, a lot of things need to fall into place. For one, it's asking a lot for the 34-year old Burress to go from two years in the joint to being a viable #2 option in the NFL. Even if Burress stumbles, the next best option is 37-year old Derrick Mason. Mason is a decent possession receiver and might fit in perfect as a #3 at his advanced age but the team could have done a better job instilling some youth at the possession as a backup plan. The Jets also neglected the offensive line, which has some holes after losing guard Alan Faneca and tackle Damian Woody in back-to-back years. Those spots were filled by unproven players like Wayne Hunter and Matt Slauson, weakening a once-strong unit. People are also expecting a bounce-back year from Greene. Rex Ryan wanted to go back to smashmouth, run-first football but Greene stumbled out of the gate taking over for Thomas Jones and, while L.T. started out strong in the first half, old age finally caught up to the future Hall of Famer down the stretch. The team is going to need Greene to be the lead back he was drafted to be in Year 3. Otherwise, more pressure will be put on the already lofty shoulders of Mark Sanchez.

Bottom line: Rex Ryan can't stop telling anyone who will listen that his Jets are the team to beat but there are plenty of question marks to make that claim dubious. The Jets will be a playoff team off the strength of a very good defense and some veteran savvy on offense. However, for this team to make the Super Bowl after being stopped dead in its tracks in back-to-back AFC Championship losses, they are going to need big years out of Greene and Sanchez. In a city like New York, it's all about what you've done for me lately. We know Ryan and company can talk the talk, but the young guys have to help the veterans walk the walk. Otherwise, it's another year of white noise.

3. Miami Dolphins

What I like: Am I crazy for thinking Chad Henne isn't THAT bad a QB? Maybe. Henne returns as the starter in Miami after an offseason that saw the team flirt with trading for Kyle Orton but settling for signing ex-Panther Matt Moore. What might be seen as a vote of confidence might me more of a shortening of the leash. This is a make-or-break year for Henne in his fourth season and the tools are in place for the former Michigan Wolverine to succeed. Rookie Mike Pouncey and former Cowboy Marc Colombo were brought in to solidify an already good offensive line led by former top overall pick Jake Long. Once highly-touted runner Reggie Bush was acquired from New Orleans and former K-State RB Daniel Thomas was drafted to replace Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams and give the Dolphins more of a punch in the ground game. Henne will also have weapons in the passing game with supposedly-sane WR Brandon Marshall and last year's breakout star Davone Bess, as well as youngster Brian Hartline. The defense suffered a few losses but gets first-round pick Jared Odrick back to rotate on the defensive line as well as one the game's emerging young LB's in Cameron Wake. Vontae Davis and Sean Smith are coming on as solid young cornerback tandem as well.

What I don't like: As much as I'm willing to give Henne some leeway, I realize I'm in the minority in that category. Henne's been uninspiring in his first two seasons as starter and he could very well be the bust everyone already thinks he is. The same can be said for Bush, who was supposed to be the second coming of Barry Sanders but instead has been softer than Barry Manilow. With the rookie Daniel Thomas a step behind because of the lockout, Bush gets his first real shot of his career to be the lead back. When healthy, Bush is a dynamic playmaker with uncanny speed and good hands out of the backfield but he's never been able to avoid the injury bug. As for Brandon Marshall, he admitted to the world that he was suffering from borderline personality disorder but managed to get it taken care thanks to new meds. When your star wideout needs happy pills to be a better teammate, that should be a cause for concern. The defense is going to miss leading tackler Channing Crowder, who was released and then mysteriously retired. Kevin Burnett was brought in as Crowder's replacement but he's rather ho-hum.

Bottom line: Miami can be a dangerous team is its core players live up to their once-lengthy press clippings. Still, it's asking a lot for guys like Henne, Marshall and Bush to miraculously put it all together in the same season and become the big-time talents they were drafted to be. Henne has no excuses not to improve this season. The offensive line is solid, the supporting cast is better and he's had enough time with the playbook to be able to run the offense smoothly. As for Bush, it will be interesting to see what he can do if he manages to get 20-25 touches a game and plays all 16 this season. Bush has shown flashes during his career but has always been slowed by either his own hype or by injury. The Dolphins aren't close to competing with Super Bowl contenders like New England and New York in their own division but if it somehow all comes together for them, they could be a tough out at the very least.

4. Buffalo Bills

What I like: As dreadful as the Bills were last year. they managed to uncover a few nice surprises. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was better than expected in his first full year as starter and built a nice chemistry with breakout star Steve Johnson. Johnson's emergence allowed the team to cut ties with long time starter Lee Evans. Fred Jackson returns as the starter after wrestling the job away from C.J. Spiller last season. Jackson's been steady yet unspectacular as the team's main ground threat. Defensively, the team made some strides. Buffalo is hoping oft-injured LB's Nick Barnett and Shawne Merriman can return to Pro Bowl form. The return of "Lights Out" is especially crucial to the team's success as he's the team's best pass rusher. The team used the 3rd overall pick on Marcell Dareus, a DE out of Alabama, to be the cornerstone of this 3-4 defense and provide pressure on a defensive line that already features underrated NT Kyle Williams. The secondary also has a share of young up-and-comers in safety Jarius Byrd and CB Leodis McKelvin.

What I don't like: Fitzpatrick's numbers are especially impressive considering he was playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in football. The Bills did nothing to improve a unit that consistently failed to protect its young QB and provide holes for Jackson or Spiller. Speaking of Spiller, the former Clemson standout was a colossal failure as a rookie and the fact that he's behind the pedestrian Fred Jackson is a bad sign for his future as a pro. Any chance of Johnson's success carrying on into this season was compromised by trading Evans. With no other receiver to take attention away from Johnson, the passing game will stall unless someone else can step up. The defense will be much improved by the losses of LB Paul Posluszny and SS Donte Whitner will hurt and the team is really taking a gamble that Barnett and Merriman can stay on the field.

Bottom line: The Bills will be slightly better than last year but the team has huge holes on the offensive line and the trimming of talent on both sides of the ball will prove costly throughout the season. On the bright side, the team might have found something in Fitzpatrick and Johnson and if they can get contributions from Spiller and/or any of its new additions on defense, the team can be respectable in 2011. That's a big if, however.

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