Monday, September 5, 2011

NFC West Preview




1. Arizona Cardinals


What I like: As down as I am on Kevin Kolb, he's a huge upgrade at QB over the three-headed disaster of Derek Anderson, John Skelton and Max Hall that the Cards had last year. His presence allows the team to better utilize WR Larry Fitzgerald and the team made another sneaky move in bringing in hometown hero and former Ravens tight end Todd Heap. With Steve Breaston gone to Kansas City, Heap will emerge as Kolb's #2 target, provided the former ASU standout stays healthy. The running game is now squarely on the shoulders of former Buckeye Beanie Wells, now that Tim Hightower is in Washington and rookie Ryan Williams is out for the season. Arizona signed Chester Taylor to spell Wells but this has to be the year that Beanie makes teams pay for letting him slide to the bottom of Round 1 two years ago.


What I don't like: A year after losing Karlos Dansby and Antrel Rolle on defense, the team dealt Pro Bowl corner Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to Philly to get Kolb. Some of the blow of DRC's departure will be softened by 5th overall pick Patrick Paterson but, even if Paterson turns out to be the goods, there isn't much talent beyond the former LSU Tiger. Safeties Kerry Rhodes and Adrian Wilson will have to make a ton of plays because the front seven doesn't have much beyond DE Darnell Dockett. Another weakness, and you may be sensing a theme here, is the offensive line. Arizona gave up the second-most sacks in the league last year and it's only big name addition was former Packers guard Daryn Colledge. Kolb is coming off a year where he lost his job because the offensive line made him susceptible to hits which lead to his concussion. Granted, there's no Mike Vick on the roster to Wally Pipp Kolb this year but the team won't see equal returns on its $63 million investment in their new QB if he's running for his life all the time. The loss of Breaston hurts because, as with the defense, it marks the second straight year the team has lost its #2 wideout. As good as Fitzgerald is, he needs someone to take the pressure off him since he doesn't have the speed to burn most corners.


Bottom line: The West is wide open to the point that you can draw any of the four teams out of a hat and make a case for a division champion. Every team has its flaws but what gives Arizona the edge over division favorite St. Louis is the Rams' tough early schedule and having Kolb behind center gives Arizona the advantage over Seattle and San Francisco, who don't have even an adequate QB. Still, the Cardinals are an 8-8 team, at best. The defense is going to be dreadful and Kolb, while an upgrade, has to prove that he can both stay healthy and be more than a checkdown champion. Wells has to be the workhorse he was at Ohio State and somebody has to emerge to take heat off Arizona's new $100 million wideout in Fitzgerald. The Cardinals have the most continuity and talent in the right areas. It remains to be seen if they execute on all that promise.


2. St. Louis Rams


What I like: I'm still eating crow from last year after being down on the Rams taking Sam Bradford with the #1 overall pick. Bradford proved to be the real deal in his first season and now enters a Josh McDaniels offense that turned Kyle Orton into Trent Green. Bradford also has a #1 wideout in former Jaguar Mike Sims-Walker and, oh yeah, RB Steven Jackson is still in the fold to mow over defenders and leave bodies in his wake. Head coach Steve Spagnuolo continues to make strides with his defense. Former #2 overall pick Chris Long had a solid year last year as did James Hall. To give the aging Hall a breather, the team drafted Robert Quinn out of UNC. Quinn was suspended all of last year so there's a definite rust factor but the presence of Long and Hall allow him to come along slowly. The team also has a tackling machine in MLB James Laurinaitis and made a nice swap in replacing O.J. Atogwe with former Eagle Quintin Mikell at safety.


What I don't like: The Rams have the most talent in this division and they would absolutely run away with the West if they didn't have such a brutal opening schedule. They open up hosting Philly before going to the Meadowlands to face the Giants, then come home to face the Ravens and Redskins before having to travel to Green Bay and Dallas after the Week 5 bye week. After that, they get New Orleans at home before their first divisional showdown, on the road against Arizona. It's tough seeing them going better than 2-6 in the first 8 games. Luckily, the only real test they have in the second half is Pittsburgh in Week 16 but who knows where this team is at, record-wise, by then.


Bottom line: The schedule makers did St. Louis no favors in what could have been their breakout year. If the Rams continue to shock the world like they did last year and have a winning record through their first eight, then the division is theirs. Bradford is quickly becoming a solid QB, Jackson is a wrecking ball when healthy and the team got by with a worse receiving crew than what they have now. They are the best in the division on both sides of the ball but the road to the top of the West is a lot rockier than their division rivals.


3. San Francisco 49ers

What I like: I loved the Braylon Edwards signing, as protection in case Michael Crabtree either gets hurt or fails to breakout in his third year. Edwards has had issues with drops in years passed but he's still a solid wideout and the combination of him, Crabtree, speedy former Dolphins first rounder Ted Ginn and Pro Bowl tight end Vernon Davis give San Fran a hell of receiving core. The Niners also avoided a distraction by giving Pro Bowl RB Frank Gore a new deal. With Gore in the fold, the offense has good balance and the offensive line, which had two rookie starters last year, will continue to improve. Defensively, the team made a few changes. Out goes former first rounder Manny Lawson, in comes 8th overall pick Aldon Smith. The team bid adieu to once-prized signing Nate Clements and brought in Carlos Rogers. Promising safety Taylor Mays was dealt to Cincinnati and the team signed former Bills tackling machine Donte Whitner. It remains to be seen whether these changes are for the good but, at the end of the day, the team still has all-world ILB Patrick Willis.


What I don't like: All the offensive potential could come to a screeching halt if Alex Smith doesn't make huge strides at QB. Entering his seventh season and after spending a year watching his draft classmate, Aaron Rodgers, win a Super Bowl, the pressure is on the former #1 pick once again to breathe life back into his career. Adding to the pressure is second round pick Colin Kaepernick. The lockout kept the supremely talent Kaepernick from beating out Smith in the preseason but Smith is going to have to put on a show to keep the former Nevada QB on the bench. Smith holds the keys to San Fran's success. If he proves to be everything the team thought he was in 2005, the Niners will do damage in this division but I'm placing my bets on that not happening. Six years is a long leash for a QB to prove himself and, if Smith isn't the goods by now, he probably never will be. My other concerns are the fact that so much of this offense is tied to guys who aren't durable. Crabtree has yet to play a full season. Smith has had numerous shoulder ailments. Gore is a ankle sprain waiting to happen, and Ginn and Davis have had their health issues. Defensively, the changes are welcomed but they never found a replacement for franchise nose tackle Aubreyo Franklin. The nose tackle is the catalyst to the 3-4 defense. I'm not sure Ike Sopoaga is that guy.


Bottom line: The team sinks or swims with Alex Smith. The former Utah signal caller has all the weapons to succeed except for that pea-shooter of an arm attached to his right shoulder. The offensive line is much improved, the recieving core is four-deep and the running game will be stout. Smith's leash will be short though. Kaepernick possesses the big gun that Smith doesn't and he's significantly more mobile than Smith ever was. Colin's only knock is accuracy and, with the lockout, he's a bit behind in terms of adjusting to the playbook and speed of the pro game. By midseason, however, that could change, and Smith might be seeing his career go down in flames as new head coach Jim Harbaugh sees what he's got before going into next April staring at former pupil Andrew Luck.


4. Seattle Seahawks


What I like: The Seahawks worked diligently on improving their offensive line this offseason, starting with bringing in former Raiders head coach and offensive line guru Tom Cable, signing Cable's former pupil Robert Gallery to play guard and then using their first two picks on Alabama tackle James Carpenter and Wisconsin guard John Moffitt. At the very least, that means more holes for Marshawn Lynch, who was a 1,000 yard rusher with Buffalo and will be starting his first full season in Seattle. Now, Lynch was kind of a bust in the regular season since coming over in a midseason trade but hit his stride in the playoffs where he bowled over the Saints like Bo Jackson in Tecmo Bowl. Lynch gives the 'Hawks their first proven runner since Shaun Alexander mysteriously disappeared and backup Justin Forsett is the perfect change-of-pace back to give the physical Lynch a breather. Also helping the offense are the signings of former Vikings wideout Sidney Rice and another ex-Raider, Zach Miller. Rice was slowed by a hip injury last year but proved the year before that he can be a top of the line wideout. Rice allows last year's surprise hit, Mike Williams, to move into the #2 role which better suits him. As for Miller, Seattle initially brought in the Pro Bowler to team with another young, promising tight end in John Carlson but Carlson ended up on the IR. Still, Miller, Rice, Lynch, Williams and holdover Golden Tate give the team nice balance. There's just one problem......


What I don't like: Note to self....when declaring someone a fantasy quarterback sleeper, you should probably see him play with his new team first. Former Viking Tarvaris Jackson opens the season as the starter at quarterback and, if preseason is any indication, it's gonna be a long year. On paper, it looked like Jackson's strong arm and mobility would make him at least adequate behind center given the talent around him and rebuilt offensive line. Instead, Jackson has looked indecisive and just plain dreadful when dropping back to pass. Sadly, backup Charlie Whitehurst isn't much better. Whitehurst filled in for Matt Hasselbeck at the end of last year and helped Seattle back into the playoffs by sucking less than the Rams in Week 17 and winning the division. He parlayed that momentum into a shocking playoff win against the Saints. Neither quarterback, however, are awe-inspiring. The same can be said for the defense. Former 4th overall pick, LB Aaron Curry, has made strides since being drafted two years ago but he's still not what many had hoped in terms of being a dominant defender. Yet, he may be the best player on this defense. Injuries have slowed Pro Bowl corner Marcus Trufant to a shell of himself and second-year man Earl Thomas was solid as a rookie at safety last year, but still doesn't strike fear into opposing offenses. There isn't a proven pass rusher beyond Chris Clemons, who came out of nowhere with 11 sacks last year. That spells bad news for a weak secondary, unless Trufant can regain his old form or Thomas takes another step up in his progression.


Bottom line: The team has talent to stay afloat in a putrid division, but the sketchy QB situation will be the cinder block tied to their ankle. Jackson was brought in because of his familiarity with the offense from his Minnesota days but the fact that he's barely outplayed Whitehurst tells you something about his chances of succeeding this year. Of course, the fact that Jackson has played poorly and STILL beat out Whitehurst tells you something about Charlie's chances as well. It makes you wonder what's stopping head coach Pete Carroll from dialing up Mike Brown and offering a draft pick for his former college QB, Carson Palmer, who seems content to twiddle his thumbs this season in Cincinnati. Even if the Seahawks can get some production from a breathing body under center, the defense is rather ho-hum for a team defending a division title. Could Seattle repeat? Sure, any team can win this division, but the loss of Matt Hasselbeck's steady hand hurts this team more than they'll admit too and they look more like a team fighting for a #1 pick than a #1 standing.

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