Wednesday, September 7, 2011

AFC North Preview



1. Pittsburgh Steelers

What I like: Slowly but surely, the Steelers have moved away from the smashmouth, run-the-ball-down-your-throat offense during the Bill Cowher days to a more balanced, pass-first attack under Omar Epps' twin brother, Mike Tomlin. The presence of big, strong-armed Ben Roethlisberger has something to do with that, as has the team's recent string of shying away from drafting big, physical run blocking wideouts like it did with Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress and instead opting for speedy playmakers like Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown. Brown and Wallace, and Big Ben to some extent, represent the new era of Steelers football. That's not to say that the team can still bust you in the mouth with the running game. Rashard Mendenhall proved himself worthy of carrying the torch of the long lineage of powerful Pittsburgh backs from Franco Harris to Barry Foster to Bam Morris to "The Bus" by rushing for nearly 1,300 yards and finding the end zone 13 times. The emergence of Mendenhall and Wallace last season makes the Steelers more frightening this year offensively, especially considering they won't be without Roethlisberger for the first four games of the season this year.

On defense, it's the same tried-and-true formula. Casey Hampton heads the best 3-4 defensive line in football, which also features a returning Aaron Smith at DE, rugged and hairy vet Brett Kiesel and some new blood in "Ziggy" Hood and first rounder Cam Heyward. Behind them, controversial James Harrison and newly-paid LaMarr Woodley form the best bookend pass-rushing duo in football and Lawrence Timmons and James Farrior are no slouches on the inside either. S Troy Polamalu, fresh from stealing the Defensive Player of the Year award from Clay Matthews last season, returns yet again to help form the league's best run D.

What I don't like: As crazy as this might sound, last year's abysmal offensive line might be worse. Tackles Max Starks and Flozell Adams are gone and the team is relying on Jon Scott, who has bounced around to three other teams and has yet to prove himself as a starter, to watch Roethlisberger's blind side while Willie Colon returns at right tackle after missing all of last season. While Big Ben's size and nimble feet have made up for the O-line's deficiencies in years past, Roethlisberger still takes way too much punishment by holding onto the ball longer in hopes of going deep. With Byron Leftwich out for the season, the team's primary backup is Charlie Batch, who has been adequate in spots but doesn't possess Ben's ability to dodge the rush. In the running game, Mendenhall's big year was good to see but there are concerns after a season where he racked up 385 carries(The Curse of 370......Google it!). Also, for as good as this defense is, it has yet to do anything to address its inability to stop teams from spreading it out and exposing their lack of depth in the secondary. Veteran corner Ike Taylor was brought back but the team failed in bringing in any fresh faces to keep them from getting torched by the Green Bays, New Englands and San Diegos of the world.

Bottom line: The Steelers have the benefit of having an all-world defense, a balanced offense, some top-notch coaching and, most importantly, the number of division rival Baltimore. They'll win the North and make yet another postseason run, but there are too many red flags keeping them from making a trip back to the Super Bowl. The offensive line remains a mess, the secondary is still too thin and, while breakout years from the likes of Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders are anticipated, they aren't a certainty. They also need to lighten the load on Mendenhall. who saw his carries increase by almost 150 from '09 to '10. The Steelers benefit from getting a divisional litmus test when Baltimore comes calling in Week 1, but this will be the year that the team's arrogance in neglecting its fatal flaws comes back to haunt them.

2. Baltimore Ravens

What I like: If not for a costly Ray Rice fumble, some sketchy penalties and a couple misreads on deep passes, we might be talking about Baltimore as the defending AFC champs and not Pittsburgh. Much like their hated rivals, the Ravens are a team slowly making the transition from old school smashmouth pigskin to something a bit more fan-friendly(unless that fan is my buddy Carlos, who could watch his Ravens run the ball 75 times a week and not get bored). The Ravens made a couple slick moves in the offseason. They helped out their breakout star, Ray Rice, by not only adding the best blocking fullback in the game in Vonta Leach but also bringing in former rushing champ Ricky Williams to give Rice a breather. Baltimore also upgraded its offensive line by switching promising yet oft-injured OT Jared Gaither for former Vikings Pro Bowler Bryant McKinnie. Mt. McKinnie has taken a step back in recent years but he's still a solid tackle and his presence allows the team to move Michael Oher to his more natural position at right tackle. The Ravens also repented for past sins by finally adding some speed to the receiving core a year after trying to infuse some life in the passing game with a slew of possession receivers like T.J. Houshmanzadeh. Lee Evans was acquired from Baltimore and the team used a 2nd round pick on Maryland burner Torrey Smith. Those two, combined with the physical Anquan Boldin, will stretch defenses and open things up even further for the electrifying Rice.

On defense, you know the big names by now. Ray Lewis and his anabolic steroid-infused body returns for what has to be his 100th season, hungrier than ever after coming up short yet again in the playoffs. He'll be flanked by pass-rushing dynamo Terrell Suggs and will have all-world safety Ed Reed behind him. The defensive line also adds more girth by swapping out Kelly Gregg and installing 400-pound tackle Terrance Cody to team up with Pro Bowler Haloti Ngata. Ngata and Cody(if Cody can stay on the field) gives the Ravens its biggest, baddest interior defensive line combo since the Sam Adams-Tony Siragusa days.....and we saw how that panned out. The team also addressed its other huge issue in the secondary by drafting talented-but-mercurial corner Jimmy Smith out of Colorado.

What I don't like: I always like to stick with my Jersey boys but I'm out on Joe Flacco. I know he's made strides coming from Delaware to the pros but I continue to lose confidence in Jersey Joe being the guy that takes this team over the hump. This year, the pressure falls squarely on his shoulders. The offensive line is improved. The running game is revamped and the team has speed on the outside at wide receiver for the first time in years. The skids are greased for Flacco to blow the doors down, but I went from Flacco's success being a near-certainty to a more wait-and-see approach. Defensively, I'm wondering where the pass rush is coming from outside of Suggs. Outside of T-Sizzle's 11 sacks, the next best Raven was Ngata at 5.5. Last year's second round pick Sergio Kindle is being relied upon to pressure QBs but he's coming off a skull fracture that sidelined him all season. The team is also relying on some unproven guys in the secondary and hoping Reed and his myriad of injuries can hold it together to keep the defense from getting gashed.

Bottom line: On paper, the Ravens are a better team than Pittsburgh and are actually a tougher matchup against the AFC's elite(Jets, Chargers, Patriots) than the Steelers are, but they have to prove they can get over the hump and topple their Steel City rivals.....and I don't just mean in Week 1. Many potential Ravens Super Bowl runs have been halted by a close loss to Big Ben and company but, this year, the Ravens did what the Steelers didn't: Improved their weaknesses. How far the Ravens go will depend on both Flacco taking the next step and the team as a whole not having brainfarts on the big stage like they did against the Steelers in the Divisional round last year. The Ravens are a scary dark horse but they have to prove they can conquer Pittsburgh and, most importantly, themselves.

3. Cleveland Browns

What I like: Honestly, not much. The Browns' biggest strength is they aren't as dysfunctional as their Ohio brothers in Cincinnati. Colt McCoy is entrenched as the starter and the team might have a legit back in Madden cover boy Peyton Hillis. Defensively, Cleveland has an underrated cornerback tandem in Joe Haden and Sheldon Brown and they are expecting big things out of massive first round pick Phil Taylor at DT and 2nd rounder Jabaal Sheard at DE in the team's new 4-3 scheme under Dick Jauron.

What I don't like: McCoy has a lot of young weapons to choose from but none of them are proven. Mohamed Massaquoi is the team's #1 but his head is still ringing from getting knocked out by James Harrison last year. Josh Cribbs is better suited as a returner and rookie Greg Little is coming off suspension from the NCAA. Those guys are being asked to revitalize the passing game. As for Hillis, he was a good story last year going from throw-in in the Brady Quinn deal to 1,000 yard rusher but I never, EVER, bet against the Madden curse and he has down year written all over him. As for the defense, it takes a while to adjust to change in schemes, especially when you don't have the personnel and especially in a lockout-shortened offseason. Taylor and Sheard are being asked to jump into the lineup and stop offenses dead in their tracks based off little under a month of practice. Good luck with that.

Bottom line: I'm still confused by the Browns' sleeper love. McCoy has proven his doubters wrong and has established himself as a decent starting QB who knows how to win and doesn't make too many stupid mistakes. He's tough and he's gritty and the team feeds off that. Still, this team has too much unproven talent around to expect them to just put it all together all of a sudden. This a team with a new head coach, a new defense and a lot of young players with their heads on a swivel. Sure, they're a leg up on the Bengals because they are run by an actual competent being in Mike Holmgren but they are still a couple years away, especially with how heavy this team is at the top.

4. Cincinnati Bengals

What to like: The Bengals tore up the blueprint and started anew this season, waving bye-bye to Carson Palmer(well, not really, he'd just rather stay home than play for the Bengals and the team is too stupid to trade him) and Chad Ochocinco and tabbing TCU QB Andy Dalton and Georgia WR A.J. Green as their franchise cornerstones. In a normal year, that would be ok but the lockout robbed Dalton and Green from building chemistry and getting adjusted to the offense. Meanwhile, RB Cedric Benson is back and so is his assault charges. Defensively, Nate Clements is in and Jonathan Joesph is out. The defense is the team's lone bright spot with a talented linebacking trio in Keith Rivers, Rey Maualuga and ex-Niner Manny Lawson. The defensive line has some young talent in ends Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap. Leon Hall will team with Clements to form a good cornerback duo(though not as good as when Hall had Joesph) and the team rolled the dice on a couple young safeties in former Jag Reggie Nelson and another former Niner in Taylor Mays.

What I don't like: The Bengals have been a disaster this preseason. Dalton looks downright befuddled out there and there isn't anyone on the roster that can shield him from the wolves. Benson is a knucklehead who wasn't worth bringing back but Cincy did so anyway and he awarded them by getting pinched on a domestic assault beef and going to jail. Green is a supremely talented wide receiver but there's no way he can make an impact this year being so far behind the learning curve. The offensive line is going to make life worse for Dalton and, while the defense will be good, it won't be able to stave off opposing offenses while the snail-paced offense puts up points.

Bottom line: After years of showing promise and looking like a contender, the Bengals are back to being a sad sack laughingstock. Dalton and Green might inevitably be a good combo but this won't be the year they come together. Benson is 2 yards and a cloud of dust and he's the team's best shot at scoring points. Right now, the Bengals will be lucky to win four games. It confounds me why they haven't tried to get something for Palmer, who seems content to sit at home in California and clip coupons while watching the franchise he helped build burn to the ground. The biggest question that will face the Bengals this season will be whether they'll suck enough to land Andrew Luck and if they should throw money at Bill Cowher or Jon Gruden in hopes they can save this waste of a franchise.

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