Saturday, September 17, 2011

Week 2 Picks

The opening week of football offered up a lot of curveballs from Baltimore's thrashing of the defending AFC champion Steelers to Cam Newton putting up Madden numbers in his rookie debut to Ron Jaworski becoming the first analyst to yell "shit" on air on Monday Night Football, beating out the odds-on favorite Jon Gruden.
Also surprising was the dynamic duo's poor start. In typical early season fashion, Dave jumped out to a three-game lead but neither managed to do better than .500 in the NFL's opening salvo.
Back at it again, here's our Week 2 picks:


Last Week: (Dave 7-8-1, Gabe 4-11-1)
Season: (Dave 7-8-1, Gabe 4-11-1)



Chiefs (+7.5) at Lions


Dave: Lions - Detroit lived up to its sleeper buzz last week, winning a thrilling clash between two up and comers against Tampa Bay. The Chiefs, on the other hand, underwhelmed in the eyes of even the most optimistic preseason observer by getting curbstomped by the lowly Bills. With Chiefs safety Eric Berry done for the year with a torn ACL, there's going to be nobody back there to help out KC's corners against Calvin Johnson. If Buffalo put up 41 on this Chiefs D last week, I can only imagine what Detroit will do....at home....against Kansas City. Lions by 17.



Gabe: Lions - Eric Berry is done for the year so KC has no one to mark Calvin Johnson. I also see the Chiefs suffering a huge hangover from last week. Detroit wins big.



Raiders(+3) at Bills


Dave: Bills - Oakland's W over Denver shouldn't have come as too big a surprise given that a. Oakland swept the division last year and b. Denver really really sucks. So, why am I still not giving the Raiders the benefit of the doubt? Well, it's asking a lot for a West Coast team to go from a late Monday night game to an early game on the road on the East Coast, especially against a Bills team that might be better than we anticipated. Raiders RB Darren McFadden has quickly come on as one of the five best backs in football, but the Raiders need to prove they can stop getting pinched for dumb penalties and use McFadden's skills to open up the passing game before they start earning my respect. In normal circumstances, I'd like Oakland but the short week benefits Buffalo. Bills by 6.


Gabe: Bills - This is a simple pick and illustrates one theme for this week, west coast teams playing on the east coast...and losing. Oakland played on Monday night and now have to travel across the country and play an early game. They wouldn't beat Syracuse this week. Bills win easily.


Ravens (-6) at Titans


Dave: Ravens - I watched Ravens-Steelers with my buddy Carlos(a Ravens fan) last week and he made a couple points about his boys taking their main rivals from the Steel City to the woodshed. For one, last week was Baltimore's Super Bowl, in essence. There was a lot more at stake if Baltimore lost than if Pittsburgh won. A loss to Pittsburgh in Week 1 pretty much kills Baltimore's chances at winning the division, since going in Heinz Field late in the season and getting a W will much harder. You can tell from the first minute the Ravens wanted it more than the Steelers and that was extra evident in the fake field goal/two-point conversion Baltimore went with despite being up 27-7. As for this week, the Titans really disappointed me after liking them to win the South this season. Chris Johnson couldn't get off against the Jags, which means he'll be non-existant against a Ravens team that seemed to be the only one who played some D last week. I like big games for Ray Rice and Jersey Joe Flacco and this Ravens D will manhandle Matt Hasselbeck, who looks like he is still learning the offense. Ravens by 14.



Gabe: Ravens - The Titans have only one weapon on offense. The Ravens will box in Chris Johnson and wreak havoc on the rest of the Titans. Ravens by at least a touchdown.


Jaguars (+8.5) at Jets


Dave: Jets - Last week's come-from-behind win against Dallas opens up this debate: Are the Jets good or just lucky? If not for another Tony Romo collapse in the 4th quarter, the Jets might be coming into this game 0-1 with a lot of questions to answer. Still, give credit to Gang Green for showing up late when the Cowboys didn't. This week, they get a significantly easier test in Jacksonville. The Jags struggled to stop Kenny Britt last week, meaning they'll be getting worked by Santonio Holmes and a suddenly resurgent Plaxico Burress. Meanwhile, MoJo D is going to struggle to find running room against this tough Jets D. Jets need a little more polish but this should be good target practice. Jets by 13.


Gabe: Jaguars - There is no logical on-the-field reason to think this is going to happen. The Jets escaped last week when the Cowboys seemed to have them dead to rights. I just think a 9 point win is too much to ask for after last week. I didn't declare one last week, but let's call this my upset special as the Jets win by seven, but don't cover.


Browns (-1.5) at Colts


Dave: Colts - I'm not sure who was more disappointing last week between these two teams. After all, we expected Indy to be bad going up against a Texans team that thumped them this time last year without Peyton Manning but I don't know if we expected them to be THAT bad(especially with Texans RB Arian Foster on the sidelines). While Houston was putting its boot over Indy's neck, Cleveland was completely shitting the bed against a Bengals team that was supposed to be awful this season. I can't see Kerry Collins being that abysmal for two straight weeks, especially at home, and I think Colt McCoy looks lost out there in Year 2 with the Browns. Peyton Hillis will go off against a terrible Colts D but, eventhough I think Indy is tanking for Andrew Luck, I say they pull out a surprise W here. Colts by 3.

Gabe: Browns - The Colts are a mess. Peyton Hillis gets nice. Browns by a touchdown.

Cardinals (+3.5) at Redskins

Dave: Redskins - This one is a head-scratcher. I can't see anyone on the Redskins D that will be able to cover Larry Fitzgerald. On the flip side, this Cardinals D let Cam Newton, in his rookie debut, put up 422 passing yards on them. Rex Grossman threw for 300 yards on the Giants, so I can only imagine what HE will do here. Plus, this is a revenge game for ex-Cardinal-now-Redskin RB Tim Hightower. I see this being a high-scoring affair because both defenses are terrible, but I'll give Washington the nod. 'Skins by 6.

Gabe: Redskins - Everything about this game points to the Redskins. The Cardinals apparently don't have any defense. They have to travel across the country to play this game. Redskins by at least a touchdown.

Bucs (+3) at Vikings

Dave: Bucs - Tampa Bay nearly came back against what looks like a good Lions team, but RB LaGarrette Blount is already making headlines with complaints about his playing time. Vikings QB Donovan McNabb showed last week that saying he's "in decline" is the biggest understatement of the year with his atrocious performance against San Diego. This week, he gets to watch the younger version of him in Bucs QB Josh Freeman. Bucs need to show a better pass rush after not registering a sack against Detroit but I think they withstand Adrian Peterson's Sunday punch and steal this one on the road. Bucs by 7.

Gabe: Bucs - Last week there were something like 7,200 yards passing across the NFL, the highest total ever in an opening week. Donovan McNabb had 39 of them. Like Dave said, the Bucs will have to withstand Adrian Peterson, but I think they get the outright W.

Packers (-9.5) at Panthers

Dave: Packers - I'm going to go out on a limb and say Cam Newton isn't going for 422 yards against the defending champs. The Packers have had a week and a half of rest to prepare for a Panthers team that couldn't pull out a W against Arizona despite Cam-Cam's record setting day. Also, if Arizona had receivers wide open with no Panther within their line of sight, what can we expect from Green Bay's high-powered offense against this shaky Carolina D? I see "The Ultimate Warrior" Clay Matthews introducing himself a couple times to the 2011 #1 overall pick and Aaron Rodgers adds to his MVP resume with another sterling performance. Packers by 14.

Gabe: Packers - Cam Newton showed last week that he really is an NFL QB...but that was againt Arizona. The champs are rested and ready. I think the Pack will be firing on all cylinders and will win by double digits.

Bears (+6.5) at Saints

Dave: Saints - Not gonna lie, I didn't see that Bears W coming. I thought Chicago's offensive line will get exploited by Atlanta's new pass rush and Chicago would get thumped. Despite that not being true last week, I think that WILL be true this week. New Orleans has a week and a half of rest and homefield on their side and, while the Bears will be playing with a heavy heart after the passing of MLB Brian Urlacher's mother this week, I don't see them keeping up with Drew Brees and company. I see this being more shootout than than a sign of an emerging Saints D but I can't see Jay Cutler matching Drew Brees score-for-score. Saints by 10.

Gabe: Saints - I don't think the Bears are as good as they showed last week. The Saints have a nice long break to get ready for this game, they are at home, and they definitely don't want to start the year 0-2. I think all of that motivates the Saints and they win by 9.

Seahawks (+14) at Steelers

Dave: Steelers - It's hard to like Pittsburgh and a double-digit spread given how they can't protect Ben Roethlisberger, especially now that they are without Willie Colon at RT. Still, Seattle is horrible and Pittsburgh will be at home and pissed off after last week's debacle against Baltimore. The Steelers will avoid going into a spread offense, even with Seattle's pass rush not being quite like Baltimore's, but they'll jam Rashard Mendenhall down the Seahawks' throat while bombarding Seahawks QB Tarvaris Jackson. I think we see Seahawks backup Charlie Whitehurst in there by halftime but Pittsburgh runs away with this one. Steelers by 20.

Gabe: Steelers - The biggest line of the week might be the easiest game to pick. The Steelers are going to be really angry after getting waxed by their rivals in Baltimore last week. The Seahawks suck and have to, in sticking with our theme, travel across the country. Steelers by three touchdowns, at least.

Cowboys (-3) at 49ers

Dave: Cowboys - Dallas will trot out the LeBron James of QB's, Tony Romo, in a situation he's more comfortable in: low pressure against a measly opponent. The Cowboys looked like a force in the first half against New York but fell apart in typical Cowboy fashion late in the game. Beyond Romo's brainfart at the goal-line, Jason Garrett needs to be smarter with the playcalling and WR Dez Bryant, if he plays, needs to prove he can be a factor for the WHOLE game. For San Francisco, they will be trying to prove that they are actually a decent ballclub and not just a team that feasted on the lowly Seahawks last week. I just can't see that Niners O-line holding off DeMarcus Ware and Rob Ryan will be spending most of the week game-planning to neutralize Frank Gore and make Alex Smith beat them. Big game for Felix Jones here. Cowboys by 10.

Gabe: 49ers - I'm taking San Fran in this game for the same reason I said Mexico would win their group in the 2010 World Cup...psychological fragility. France had a team full of head cases and Mexico was able to beat them head to head and finish ahead of them in the group. I think the Cowboys are going to allow last week to make them lose this week. I think the 49ers take it at home, mostly because Dallas is going to shit the bed. San Fran by 6.

Chargers (+7) at Patriots

Dave: Patriots - In one corner, you had a team that ran roughshod on the Dolphins on national television to the tune of their QB throwing for 517 yards. In the other, you have a team known for struggling out the gate that had trouble fending off a declining Vikings team. The Patriots have always had San Diego's number and, now facing them early in the season, I think that trend continues. Tom Brady won't throw for 517 yards against a good San Diego pass D so I think we'll see more balance from the Patriots offense and maybe even a Chad Ochocinco sighting. Good showdown between two very good QB's but Pats win this one going away. New England by 13.

Gabe: Chargers - I think this game is going to turn into a shoot out. Tom Terrific won't throw for 500+ again, but both he and Philip Rivers will go off. I think it is going to finish close. New England gets the win, but only by 4.

Bengals (+3.5) at Broncos

Dave: Bengals - Man, how bad did the Broncos look last week against Oakland? The biggest shock was Kyle Orton looking uncomfortable pretty much all game against the Raiders and the chants for Tim Tebow certianly didn't help the confidence of a man looking over his shoulder all preseason. The Bengals, while not world beaters by any means, have the same skill set as the Raiders: Shaky but efficient QB(if Bruce Gradkowski starts, at least), power running game, tough defense. If the Broncos' offensive line is a recurring problem, it won't matter who the QB is but in a battle of two mediocre teams, I'll take the points. Bengals by 3.

Gabe: Broncos - In this weeks installment of "The game Gabe wouldn't watch if it was played in his back yard," I'm going to say the Broncos can't be as bad as they played last week. They have to chin up at home. I'll say they barely cover and win by 4.

Texans (-3) at Dolphins

Dave: Texans - Probably the easiest pick of the week. Texans took advantage of a bad Colts team last week and they aren't as good as the score suggests but, right now, they have all the momentum in their favor AND defending rushing champ Arian Foster returning against a bad Dolphins team. Texans pass rusher Mario Williams vs Dolphins OT Jake Long, in a battle of former #1 overall picks, will be interesting to watch but I can't see this Miami defense being able to slow down Matt Schaub, Andre 3000 and a combo of Ben Tate and Foster. Texans by 16.

Gabe: Texans - This might actually be the year Houston finally gets the playoff monkey off their back. In order to do so they have beat inferior teams. I think they keep it going against Miami and win by double digits.

Eagles (-2.5) at Falcons

Dave: Eagles - Any thoughts of "The Dream Team" starting off slow came to a screeching halt when they handled St. Louis in Week 1 and the Falcons, this week's opponent, looked horrible against Chicago. This is Mike Vick's return to the Georgia Dome for the first time since being exiled by the team a few years ago. I don't think numbers close to his blowout performace on MNF against Washington last year is out of the question. Eagles will struggle to stop Falcons RB Michael Turner, much like they struggled with Steven Jackson last week before S-Jax hurt his quad. I see another big Mike Vick game and a week of overreaction by announcers, analysts and talking heads. Eagles by 10.

Gabe: Eagles - The Falcons can't be as bad as they looked last week, but the Eagles are on a roll. There was talk all week of the crowd actually turning on the Falcons if Vick plays well, and I think that could really happen. I think Philly wins by a touchdown and puts the Falcons' season in jeopardy.

Rams (+6) at Giants

Dave: Giants - A battle that looked good in preseason before all the injuries to both teams now looks like a yawner between two squads who might miss the playoffs. The Rams gave it an honest try against Philly before injuries took the air out of the tires. Meanwhile, the wheels never spun for Gabe's Giants last week against the Redskins. The pass rush lived up to its billing at times but still didn't do enough to stop Rex Grossman from getting his. Eli Manning looks every bit like the bust he was prior to his lucky '07 postseason and now there's the possibility of top wideout Hakeem Nicks sitting out. I'll still take Big Blue over a Rams team that might be missing QB Sam Bradford and RB Steven Jackson. Giants go up early and I change the channel to the Charlie Sheen roast by halftime. Giants by 10.

Gabe: Giants - I'm counting on the defense to show up and Eli to have a decent game. If the Rams are missing some key offensive personnel, i.e. Bradford and Jackson, I think my G-Men have a great shot. I'll take my boys at home to just barely cover. Giants by 7.

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