AFC West Preview

1. San Diego Chargers

What I like: No longer handcuffed by contract squabbles by the likes of Marcus McNeil, Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd, the Chargers can focus on what they do best this year: airing it out like wet clothes. Phillip Rivers led the league with a ridiculous 4,710 yards en route to carrying the Chargers to the #1 pass offense in the NFL last season. That was with Floyd and TE Antonio Gates nursing injuries and Jackson missing almost the entire season amidst a contract holdout. This year, the band is back in town and Rivers gets to feast on one of the worst divisions in football. On defense, last season's top ranked pass D returns a majority of its starters and welcomed a couple new additions. Rookie DE Corey Liuget will be asked to make the transition from college 4-3 DT to providing a pass rush as a 3-4 DE in the pros. The team also brought in former defensive MVP Bob Sanders to lay the hammer and team with Pro Bowl S Eric Weddle.

What I don't like: The Chargers still need to prove they can run the ball and give the offense some balance. Last year's first round pick Ryan Mathews failed to fill the big shoes left by LaDainian Tomlinson and, while Mike Tolbert filled in admirably in spots, he doesn't have the every-down potential that Mathews has. Further complicating matters is the loss of Darren Sproles, who was the Chargers' spark plug for years both in the return game and on the occasional touches he would get on third down. Someone has to step up out of the Tolbert-Mathews duo and make the offense less one-dimensional. Defensively, the addition of Sanders only makes the Chargers secondary formidable if he can actually stay on the field. Sanders has yet to play a full season in the pros and he's played more than 6 games twice in seven seasons. When he's on, he's a game changer but you have a better chance banking on an Amy Winehouse comeback tour than Sanders playing more than 10 games this year. The team has also been lacking up front since failing to replace NT Jamal Williams. The Chargers were 4th against the run last year but that had more to do with a cupcake schedule than a stout defense.

Bottom line: We've been waiting for years for this Chargers team to put everything together and make a Super Bowl run and, every year, they come up short. First off, the team needs to avoid its usual slow start. Second, someone has to emerge as a viable rushing threat out of the backfield. Third, with Shawne Merriman gone, former first round pick Larry English needs to prove his worth this season. Fellow LB Shaun Phillips is the team's only real pass rusher and the talent in the secondary is meaningless if nobody's applying pressure. Still, opposing defenses are going to struggle with the combination of Rivers' precision passing and the Chargers' trio of the 6'5 Gates, the 6'4 Jackson and the 6'4 Floyd. We know this team can win a shootout with anyone and the division is theirs for the taking. This should be San Diego's year, but we've been saying that for quite a while now.

2. Kansas City Chiefs

What I like: The Chiefs are every bit as good running the ball as San Diego is throwing it. The #1 rushing offense in the league last year returns its two lead backs in the dynamic Jammal Charles and the strong and steady Thomas Jones. Adding to an already impressive run game is former Raven Le'Ron McClain, who will dabble in some short-yardage work for the aging Jones while busting open holes for the speedy Charles. The 30th ranked passing offense gets a boost both up front with the signing of another former Raven, OT Jared Gaither, and the addition of two new targets in rookie Jonathan Baldwin(currently sidelined with a hand injury) and head coach Todd Haley's former pupil Steve Breaston to go along with last year's big surprise Dwayne Bowe. The team also gets back Jerheme Urban after missing all of last season with an injury. On defense, KC went to the Ravens well one more time with NT Kelly Gregg to clog up the middle in between former LSU Tigers Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson. Behind those three big men is OLB Tamba Hali, who came out of nowhere to notch 14.5 sacks, and a talented young secondary headlined by CB Brandon Flowers and S Eric Berry.

What I don't like: The reason for the Chiefs' struggles in the passing game last season had a lot to do with its inability to protect QB Matt Cassel, who had a solid year with just over 3,000 yards passing with 25 TDs and just 7 INT's. Outside of Gaither, who missed all of last season with a back injury, the team didn't do much to improve the offensive line, which means more added punishment for Cassel. The team also lost LB Mike Vrabel and it seems far-fetched to think replacement Andy Studebaker can fill those shoes. It's also doubtful that Hali racks up 14+ sacks again after never having more than 8 in a single season prior to last year. The Chiefs also aren't sneaking up on people anymore. While they don't have the respect of the "experts", opponents know they are dealing with a team on the rise with a lot of young talent on both sides of the ball. Unlike last year, the schedule(especially in the second half) does the team no favors.

Bottom line: The West is a two-horse race between the Chiefs and Chargers. Could KC repeat as division champs? Absolutely. This division is going to come down to the wire but the Chiefs have a brutal stretch starting in late November that sees them play the Patriots in New England, then the Steelers at home, at Chicago, at the Jets and then home to host the defending Super Bowl champion Packers. If San Diego avoids a slow first half for the first time since the Stan Humphries era, that November-December stretch will be the nail in KC's coffin. The Chiefs are young and supremely talented, especially in the secondary where Eric Berry is becoming one of the best safeties in the league, but the team can't rely on luck anymore. This is the year the Chiefs come back down to Earth.

3. Denver Broncos

What I like: Denver ignored the fans who were clamoring for Tim Tebow behind center and went with the steady Kyle Orton, who spent the first month of football's return on the trading block. Orton won't put up the numbers he did last year in new coach John Fox's conservative scheme but he won't kill the team with crucial mistakes either. The running game gets a boost with Willis McGahee coming from Baltimore to spell and eventually usurp Knowshon Moreno. Fox proved in Carolina that he leans heavy on the two-pronged rushing attack and, if McGahee stays healthy, he's going to have a comeback year. The same can't be said for Brandon Lloyd, who had a huge year in Josh McDaniels' offense last year but will probably see his numbers dwindle as the Broncos rely more on pounding the rock. On defense, Pro Bowl defensive end Elvis Dumervil returns after missing all of last season with a chest injury and the team used the #2 overall pick on pass rusher Von Miller out of Texas A &M. Miller and Dumervil will boost a pass D that an NFL-worst 23 sacks and finished 25th against the pass. Also helping stop opposing air attacks is newly re-signed CB Champ Bailey, who hasn't lost a step despite getting ready to start his 13th season.

What I don't like: Orton's effectiveness depends on confidence. With backup Brady Quinn having a stellar preseason and the specter of Tebow emanating through the air, Orton needs to be assured that Fox won't have a quick hook if he fails to pick up the new offense. Orton also needs production from Moreno, who hasn't broke out since the team used one of the picks used in the Jay Cutler trade to select him out of Georgia. McGahee is good Moreno insurance but he hasn't been healthy in years. I'm also not sold on the team's receivers. Brandon Lloyd benefited from the scheme last year but isn't a steady enough receiver to strike fear into defenses. Eddie Royal is a better return man than wideout and youngster Eric Decker is untested and not very durable. For as good as this team has made itself against the pass, it remains to be seen whether it can stop the run. Tackling machine D.J. Williams is out a month with a dislocated elbow and the team doesn't really have a run stuffer beyond him, unless you consider the aging Jamal Williams at nose tackle.

Bottom line: Don't let last season in Carolina fool you. John Fox is a good coach and he'll make the Broncos better than the dreadful unit the team was last year, but he won't make them good. The defense still needs a lot of work and there's far too many question marks on offense to give anyone confidence that the team can keep up with offenses like KC's or San Diego's. They also need to rectify the Tebow situation. Tebow was a project from the last regime and Quinn's emergence and Orton's steady hand gives Denver reason enough to cut ties with the former Heisman winner. However, so long as Tebow is there, there will be interest in seeing what he can do and if Orton struggles out of the gate, the calls for Touchdown Timmy will echo through Mile High just like they did last year. The Broncos could repeat at the bottom of the West, but Fox's presence gives them a slight edge over Oakland for right now.

4. Oakland Raiders

What I like: RB Darren McFadden finally lived up to the hype after fears that Mike Mayock was right in chastising the former Arkansas back on draft day a couple years ago. McFadden showed the size and speed that makes him a terror but also showed this season why he's a risky bet by missing the preseason with a broken orbital bone in his face. McFadden will be ready for the opener and bruiser Michael Bush is back in case Run-DMC isn't healthy, giving the team a steady one-two punch in the ground game. As for the passing game, Jason Campbell finally gets to study the same playbook for the first time since high school. After numerous coaching changes, Campbell is reportedly comfortable in new coach Hue Jackson's offense and is more confident with Bruce Gradkowski no longer breathing down his neck. Defensively, the team has a solid core from veteran DT Richard Seymour to young talent like MLB Rolando McClain and DEs Matt Shaughnessy and LaMarr Houston, but it remains to be seen how it handles the loss of Pro Bowl CB Nnamdi Asomugha.

What I don't like: I'll start this paragraph where I ended the last one. There's no way this team repeats as the #2 pass defense with Asomugha now in Philly and defensive coordinator Rob Ryan in Dallas. No chance. Stanford Routt came on as a viable #2 corner last year but things will change now that he's being asked to cover the team's best receiver. Speaking of receivers, who's catching the passes from the supposedly confident Jason Campbell in this offense? Jacoby Ford is a speedster and a home run threat but he's also 5'9 with shaky hands and the same goes for Darrius Heyward-Bey. Pro Bowl TE Zach Miller is gone as Campbell's safety valve and former Giant Kevin Boss, while steady, is a significant downgrade. The offensive line will also miss the tutelage of Tom Cable as well as big Robert Gallery entrenched at guard. Even bigger Bruce Campbell is set to fill Gallery's spot but he's unproven as is the rest of this offensive line other than the inept Khalif Barnes at right tackle.

Bottom line: The Raiders looked like a nice sleeper pick because they play sound defense and have a solid running game, but there's too much riding on guys who don't have the track record of carrying a football team. Jason Campbell is better than he was in Washington and maybe even better than how he played last season, but he's not going to succeed with a swiss-cheese offensive line and nobody to throw to. The defense is going to get eaten up with Asomugha no longer there to shut down one side of the field. McFadden and Bush will put up big numbers but that's contingent on both staying healthy and Campbell being at least adequate in the passing game. Oakland has more talent than they've had in since the Rich Gannon Super Bowl days but it's still the same horrible Raiders.