The division previews are done, but there's still some unfinished business.
That's right. This is the part that inevitably leads to me putting foot to mouth in February(although I was close last year with my Ravens-Packers Super Bowl pick). If you read the division breakdowns, you know who I have as division champs but I'll re-write them here anyway for you lazy bums as well as my Wild Card picks.
NFC
Division winners: Packers, Eagles, Cardinals, Saints
Wild Cards:
1. Atlanta: Let's face it. It's not like NOT having a stellar defense stopped them from making the playoffs last year. The offense is too explosive for them not to succeed and the defense is good enough to not cripple them too much. Come playoff time, however, that will change and Matty Ice will be see his elusive search for his playoff win come up short once again.
2. Dallas: It's pretty much a dogfight between Dallas, Detroit and Tampa Bay but, when push came to shove, I went with experience over potential. Both Tampa Bay and Detroit have tougher divisional foes, which will make their chances of toppling Dallas(who will feast on Washington and New York this season) that much tougher. For Romo and company, Rob Ryan will make this defense a lot better and the Cowboys can score points even if they don't get a full season out of RB Felix Jones. If Jones is healthy though, the Cowboys will be a very tough out in the playoffs.
AFC
Division winners: New England, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, San Diego
Wild Cards
1. Baltimore: Pretty easy call here. Ray Rice is my sleeper pick to win the rushing title and I like what Lee Evans and Torrey Smith bring to this offense. Defensively, it's the same story. Baltimore is going to smack you in the mouth repeatedly. The only things keeping me from making them my Super Bowl pick is my lack of faith in Joe Flacco and my lack of confidence that Ed Reed stay healthy enough to make up for a weak secondary.
2. New York Jets: The Jets benefit from the AFC not being more than six teams deep. If Houston lives up to the hype or Kansas City can continue what they did last season, the Jets are in trouble. I'm not sold on Burress' comeback and Shonn Greene really needs to impress me this year. That defense, though, makes up for a lot of offense shortcomings and they seem to have New England's number in the playoffs, which means they won't go away quietly in January.
MVP: Drew Brees, QB, Saints - That's right, I'm making you wait on the Super Bowl pick. Deal with it. All of the talk about Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers and Mike Vick, people have forgotten about Drew Brees as one of the game's best QB's. Yes, the Madden Curse haunted Brees and he didn't play up to the level he was at during the Super Bowl run two years ago. With a newfound running game giving the offense more balance, I think Brees picks defenses apart and has a big year. Yes, A-Rod and Brady will be in the mix but my money's on Brees this year.
Offensive Player of the Year: Ray Rice, RB, Ravens - You saw what Vonta Leach did for Arian Foster last year. You've seen what Bryant McKinnie did for Adrian Peterson over the years in Minnesota. Both men are in Baltimore to open holes for Ray Rice, who will still be the goal line back even with Ricky Williams in the fold. With the way Baltimore likes to establish the run, 1,600 yards and 18 combined TD's isn't out of the question for Ray Rizzle. Yes, it helps that he went to Rutgers. I'm a homer. Sue me.
Defensive Player of the Year: Ndomukong Suh, DT, Lions - 10 sacks as a rookie when opposing offenses knew he was the guy they needed to stop of that Detroit defensive line. Now, Nick Fairley is in the fold and guys like Kyle Vanden Bosch and Cliff Avril will make it hard to use up too many blockers on a boy named Suh. If he can keep himself from getting suspended for abusing QB's, Suh is going to have an even bigger year than his impressive rookie campaign.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Cam Newton, QB, Panthers - The lockout makes it hard to have too much faith in any rookie but Newton has all the tools to succeed. He's big, strong, mobile and he'll put up numbers behind a better-than-advertised offensive line and throwing to safety valves in tight ends Jeremy Shockey and Greg Olsen with the occasional deep bomb to Steve Smith. The vaunted run game with "The Daily Show" Jon Stewart and DeAngelo Williams will keep defenses from throwing too much at Cam-Cam and I can see Newton doing just enough to win a few games on a sad sack Panthers franchise. Plus, going chalk with Mark Ingram or Julio Jones just isn't fun.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Patrick Peterson, CB, Cardinals - Admittedly, it's a long shot but he gets six games against Tarvaris Jackson, Alex Smith and Sam Bradford(who will be throwing a lot in Josh McDaniels' offense). That means he'll get a lot of opportunity. Marcell Dareus will be in the mix, as will Von Miller but my hunch is that Peterson makes an immediate impact on a Cardinals defense lacking playmakers.
AFC Championship: Patriots over Steelers - If the Ravens can get by Pittsburgh, I like them to beat New England because they are aren't as weak against the spread offense as the Steelers are but the Ravens haven't proved they can get over that hump. I see the improved pass rush by New England getting to Big Ben early and often, while the Steelers struggle yet again to keep a deep Patriot receiving crew at bay when they spread it out.
NFC Championship: Saints over Packers - I'm tipping my hand here a little with our pick for Thursday's opener coming soon, but I like the Saints' balance over my Packers. Much like the season opener, this will be an amazing shootout between two elite QB's but the Packers are a little weaker against the run than New Orleans is and the combination of Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas and even Darren Sproles will keep Green Bay honest on D and the Saints' offensive line is good enough to give Brees time to air it out.
Super Bowl: Patriots 35, Saints 31 - We've been fortunate the last few years to have Roethlisberger vs. Warner, then Manning vs. Brees and then Roethlisberger vs. Rodgers. This time around, it's Brady vs. Brees and a battle between the defensive genius of Bill Belichick and the offensive creativity of Sean Payton. I'll give the edge to New England because their versatility on defense will confuse Brees and their balance on offense will slow down New Orleans' quick-strike attack. Patriots win their first title since '05. Brady wins MVP and ESPN spends the fall blowing wads in their shorts while we get force-fed endless "Brady or Montana" debates.
Welcome back, football!
Thursday, September 8, 2011
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