Saints-Packers was the shootout many anticipated, with New Orleans falling short on head coach Sean Payton calling a final play from the Packers' 1-yard like that even Stevie Wonder saw coming: a run up the gut by rookie Mark Ingram.
The Packers win proved two things: 1. The reverse jinx still works even after a long layoff and 2. the lack of time to practice thanks to the lockout means defenses will spend the first couple of weeks catching up to offenses, which means even the usual defensive tug-of-wars like this week's Steelers-Ravens clash could be a 31-28 seesaw affair.
Anyway, Gabe goes up 1-0 by taking the Packers to cover last night. On to the rest of the picks....
Falcons (-2.5) at Bears
Dave: Falcons - My fearless prediction here is that Atlanta unleashes its newfound pass rush on Chicago's horrible offensive line, forcing Jay Cutler to become his usual turnover machine while Matt Ryan and company to light up the scoreboards. Afterward, talking heads will freak out about the Falcons' balance on both sides of the ball and we'll have a week's worth of "Is Atlanta the team to beat in the NFC?" conversations because of how they'll destroy one half of last year's NFC Championship participants. In actuality, it will be the start of bad things to come for the Bears and the Falcons will benefit from testing out their defense against a team that couldn't protect its quarterback if it had AR-15's and tazers.
Gabe: Falcons - Like Dave said in his opening, NFL defenses are going to need time to catch up to the offenses. That spells bad news for the Bears, because the Falcons have a high powered offense, especially in the passing game. I think the Falcons air attack proves to be way too much for Chicago. Falcons by double digits.
Bengals (+7) at Browns
Dave: Browns - Your best bet every week, be it laying down money or a suicide pool, is taking whoever is playing the Bengals because they are going to be dreadful. I'm not a passenger on the Browns' bandwagon and the lack of time to adjust from the 3-4 to 4-3 will prevent this from being the thorough beating many are projecting, but I still see Cleveland corners Joe Haden and Sheldon Brown making life rough for Andy Dalton while Colt McCoy does just enough to earn a W in a game that will be hard to watch. Browns by 13.
Gabe: Browns - The Bengals are going to be awful. The Browns are going to be average. To me, that says a two touchdown win for the Cleveland.
Bills (+6) at Chiefs
Dave: Chiefs - I'm predicting blowout here. The Bills don't have enough talent in the secondary to stop Kansas City's firepower in the passing game(even without TE Tony Moeaki and rookie WR Jon Baldwin) and that opens things up for what Kansas City does best: run the football. For Buffalo, QB Fitzpatrick is going to have trouble finding Steve Johnson with Brandon Flowers and Eric Berry in that secondary and Tamba Hali is going to be applying constant pressure against that swiss-cheese Bills' offensive line. Chiefs by 21.
Gabe: Chiefs - The Chiefs should roll in this game. The Bills have this odd ability to rise up and play above their ability every now and then, but not today. Chiefs by a lot.
Eagles (-4) at Rams
Dave: Eagles - I don't think it's farfetched for St. Louis to pull this one out. The crowd inside that dome is going to be nuts and the Rams' pass rush is going to have plenty of opportunity to get in Mike Vick's face going up against Philly's new offensive line. Still, Sam Bradford is going to be asked the throw the ball 35-40 times in Josh McDaniels' offense against a secondary that has two of the best cover corners in the NFL in Nnamdi Asomugha and Asante Samuel and a guy in Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie who is no slouch either. If Steven Jackson gets it going against a soft Eagles run defense, that could make things interesting but the Eagles know a loss here will spark a week of "Are the Eagles overrated?" talk and neither they, nor us fans, need that this early in the season. Eagles by 9.
Gabe: Rams - I'm going to go out on a limb here. There is a formula to beat Michael Vick. Some teams have figured out a way to box him in. Do the Rams have the ability to do that? Perhaps. Combine that with Steven Jackson possibly going off against Philly's run defense, and St. Louis has a very good shot to pull the upset. I'm not sure if that will happen, but I'll say the Rams beat the spread, and Philly wins by a field goal.
Lions (+1.5) at Bucs
Dave: Lions - With my Packers out of the way, this is the game I'm most interested to see in Week 1. I only wish this game was moved to 4 o'clock to make up for the boring late game schedule. This is a good lithmus test for two teams with a lot of sleeper buzz. The Bucs have been a bit slow out of the gate in preseason, while Detroit has looked spectacular. Two things I'm looking forward to seeing: Josh Freeman trying to take the next step up the ladder of the NFL's best young QB's with Lions all-world DT Ndomukong Suh chasing after him and how good a young Bucs' defensive line brimming with talent and potential performs. I think Tampa gets Matt Stafford out of his rhythm but not enough to stop him from finding Calvin Johnson deep for a couple scores. Both teams are going to go back-and-forth trading scores but, if forced to choose, I'll take the team getting points. Lions by 3.
Gabe: Bucs - The idea of this game is exciting. Two young teams on the come up, led by two good young QB's. I'll go with home field here and say Bucs by 3.
Titans (+2) at Jaguars
Dave: Titans - I can't understand how the Jags, even at home, are favored with Luke McCown starting and Maurice Jones-Drew still not 100%. Plus, your betting on a spotty Jags defense to shut down Chris Johnson, who is fresh and motivated to justify his big contract? Not a chance. I have Tennessee winning the division so, clearly, I think they are better than most do especially the oddsmakers. This one won't be close. Titans by 17.
Gabe: Titans - Both of these teams are a mess, except for Chris Johnson. CJ2K gets nice and the Titans win big.
Steelers (+1.5) at Ravens
Dave: Steelers - I said this in AFC North preview and my prediction piece, Pittsburgh has Baltimore's number and the Steelers are the only thing standing in between the Ravens and the Super Bowl. Everyone in the building and watching at home knows Pittsburgh won't be able to run the ball on Baltimore, so two things need to happen for the Ravens to win at home. One, Baltimore's new and improved secondary has to be able to stay with Pittsburgh's speedy receivers and the Ravens have to find a pass rush beyond Terrell Suggs to make Big Ben uncomfortable back there. Two, Joe Flacco needs his coming-of-age moment right here, right now. Flacco's worst nights have come against the Steel Curtian and all the regular season W's are meaningless if Flacco continues to struggle against Pittsburgh. The Ravens have much more at stake here because a loss here means they'll have to go into Heinz Field later in the year and try to pull out a W to salvage the division crown. To be the man, you have to beat the man and, right now, the Steelers are the man......with the Ravens' number. Steelers by 3.
Gabe: Steelers - The Steelers might be the best team in the AFC and like Dave said, they have Baltimore's number. This has turned into a great physical rivalry. Steelers by a touchdown in a tough hard hitting game.
Colts (+9) at Texans
Dave: Texans - I was a little reluctant to take Houston here because RB Arian Foster is a game-time decision and I'm not sure Ben Tate is enough to justify giving Indy 9 points. Plus, while Kerry Collins is washed up, is it THAT crazy to think he couldn't be decent against a still-improving Houston pass defense with Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark healthy? More likely, the Colts struggle to play catch up with an explosive Texans offense, like it was the case this time last year even with Peyton Manning behind center for Indy, and the Texans stake their claim to the South crown.
Gabe: Colts - Only because I think the line is too high. Everything about this game seems to point to a Houston blowout...which is exactly the kind of situation that causes Houston to stub their toe. Houston wins, but only by a touchdown.
Panthers (+7) at Cardinals
Dave: Panthers - Taking a page out of Gabe's book, you can call this my upset special. Yes, I have the Cardinals winning the West. No, I don't think they are very good. Neither is Carolina, but winning in the NFL is about doing certian aspects of the game better than your opponent. Do the Panthers run the ball better than Arizona? Absolutely. Does Carolina have a better defense? The case can be made that they do. Does Carolina throw the ball as well as Arizona? No, but the gap isn't that big. Carolina is going to trot out Cam Newton and Arizona will have Kevin Kolb starting at QB. Both have had pretty much the same time to learn their respective offenses. Kolb, while the "veteran", only has a handful more starts than Cam-Cam and none of those starts came with his current team. You're talking about a battle between pretty much too newcomers. Newton has the better offensive line, is significantly more mobile and has some weapons in Steve Smith, Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey(plus the added bonus of a solid running game). Kolb has Larry Fitzgerald and what's left of Todd Heap. I'm calling that a push. Everywhere else? Advantage: Carolina. I see the Panthers pulling out the ugly win. Carolina by 6.
Gabe: Cardinals - I think Carolina is a mess. Arizona seems to be getting it together. Arizona is at home and I think they have the makings of a great offense. Carolina won't be able to stop them or keep up. Cards by 10.
Vikings (+8.5) at Chargers
Dave: Vikings - Minnesota may be a shell of the team that went to the NFC Championship two years ago, but they aren't completely dead. Donovan McNabb has declined but still has a little left in the tank(at least, early on, he will) and the Vikes still have Adrian Peterson(who, you may recall, set the single-game rushing record the last time these two teams played each other). The Chargers are notorious slow starters, making them a hell of a risk to cover a near-nine point spread. The Chargers will air it out on a so-so Minnesota secondary but they, like many defenses, will have their struggles stopping A.P. and I think McNabb-to-Harvin is dangerous enough to keep the game within a touchdown. Chargers by 7.
Gabe: Vikings - The Chargers historically start the season slowly. I don't think they are going to buck that trend. They will win the game, but it is going to be close.
Seahawks (+5.5) at 49ers
Dave: 49ers - You know how, no matter how big a bust a QB might be, they always have that one game where, afterwards, delusional fans say "See? See? I told you he'd put it all together! (insert name here) is gonna have a breakout year, baby!" like Joey Harrington's 361 yard performance against Minnesota in 2004 or Brady Quinn going back-and-forth with then-rookie Matt Stafford to the tune of 304 yards and 4 TD's in 2009? This will be that game for Alex Smith. This is the game that downtrodden Niners fans have been waiting for from their 2005 #1 overall pick or, as he's known to everyone else, "The Guy That Got Taken Instead Of Aaron Rodgers in '05". Smith will have Braylon Edwards, Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis to spread the ball around to for what will probably be the only time the trio will be together before one or two of them tears an Achilles'. Frank Gore will continue his history of owning the Seahawks and Seattle head coach Pete Carroll will finally pick up the phone and call the Bengals about Carson Palmer after he watches Tarvaris Jackson run backwards for a 13-yard loss on a sack for the second time in the first quarter. Niners by 13.
Gabe: 49ers - The 49ers have the makings of a decent offense and Seattle sucks. I also have a long standing hatred for the SeaPigeons after what they did to the Giants in 2005, so Niners by two touchdowns.
Giants (-3) at Redskins
Dave: Giants - I'm baffled how, with all the press that will be used on the 10th anniversary of 9/11, that the NFL schedule makers wouldn't book Giants-Jets(currently slated to take place on Christmas Eve this season) as the Sunday night game on September 11th as opposed to having the Giants go on the road to face piddly Washington and having the Jets host the Cowboys on Sunday night. That's another debate for another time. As for this stinker of a game, the lone bright spot this year as far as football goes in the Rodriguez household will be the two times Gabe's Giants get to thrash the 'Skins. Maybe Mike Shanahan knows something about Rex Grossman that the rest of the world doesn't but I see him eating a lot of grass going up against the best pass rush in the NFL in New York. Both teams will suck by year's end but, even with Osi out and Justin Tuck banged up, Big Blue rolls in this one. Giants by 20.
Gabe: Giants - First, let me respond to the first part of Dave's write up on this game. The tragedy of 9/11 occurred in New York and Washington. It totally makes sense that these two teams play on the 10th anniversary. As Steve Harvey said in 'The Original Kings of Comedy,' well, now that we done got that out the way...the Giants pass rush is the best in the NFL and they have a history of crushing bad quarterbacks, especially in Week 1. I don't think Grossman finishes the game and the Giants defense goes off. Big Blue by at least 14.
Cowboys (+5) at Jets
Dave: Jets - The battle of the Ryan brothers over having two New York teams battle it out in the Meadowlands on the 10-year anniversary of the most devastating attack on U.S. soil since Pear; Harbor? I still shake my head at that. As for the game, I don't see where Dallas has an advantage here. The offensive line is a work in progress and will be facing one of the best defenses in the league. Even if Tony Romo gets time to throw, Miles Austin and Dez Bryant are going to be smothered by Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie. Dallas will struggle to run the ball against Gang Green and Dallas' D, while expected to be better than last year, still has weaknesses in the secondary that are sure to be exploited by WR Santonio Holmes. The game will be competitive, but the Jets' D will be too much for the Cowboys and Mark Sanchez will put together just enough offense to keep Dallas at bay. Jets by 10.
Gabe: Jets - Quite simply, the Jets are better than the Cowboys all around, and will be playing emotionally charged. I wouldn't bet against any New York based team today. Jets by double digits.
Patriots (-6.5) at Dolphins
Dave: Patriots - In years past, Miami has been able to steal a win from New England with some crafty tricks up their sleeve(the introduction of The Wildcat, for one) and some efficient defense. The gap has since widened between the Dolphins and Patriots and, while New England's look a bit off in preseason, Bill Belichick isn't going to let his team get embarressed on national television by a division rival after an offseason spent going all-in for a championship. Even with the improved offensive line, Chad Henne and company can't go score for score with Tom Brady's bunch. I'd be surprised if this one isn't over by halftime. Patriots by 16.
Gabe: Patriots - I can't believe this line is this close. I think this game turns into a nightmare for Miami after a half. Patriots win huge.
Raiders (+3) at Broncos
Dave: Broncos - Quite the yawnfest for an opening Monday night slate. 3 non-playoff teams in primetime? Ugh. Monday Night Football hasn't been kind to the Raiders in recent years, especially against division rivals, and this time won't be any different. The Broncos' pass rush is much improved with Elvis Dumervil back and Von Miller in the equation and Kyle Orton is going to pick his spots against a Asomugha-less Oakland secondary. Darren McFadden will have a big day against a bad Broncos run defense, and that might the only chance Oakland has of keeping this close. Otherwise, Broncos win going away in a game not worth its primetime spot. Denver by 14.
Gabe: Broncos - Denver has some nice pieces and Oakland is a joke. Denver by at least 10.
No comments:
Post a Comment